[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

The "niche" is a sharp marketing segment. Yet, if we consider services revenues, CALs, and device volumes, I believe it's a confusion to understand it as "tiny" like the "niche" word may suggest. If I'm not under acid, I believe they can afford to sell the device with lower gross margins (near zero ?) that would result in a Z10/Q10 with facial value under $300. Add some CALs incentive ...

The real question is what doe it cost to manufacture the devices... but what does everything else cost?

• What does it cost in R&D to design the hardware?
• What R&D to build and update the OS, to provide technical support?
• Still going to need to provide sale reps to call on corporate accounts, world wide so there is a cost to that?
• What does it cost to maintain their BB network - equipment, software, tech people?
• What types of licensing fees does BB have to pay of connection to all these different networks, and bandwidth?
• What types of patent licensing cost does Blackberry have per device?
• Will carriers want to bother with stocking, testings, training for devices that have such a low sell through rate, without charging a fee?

These are all a part of the "cost" of a device.... spread out of 10's of millions of devices it is a very small part, spread out of a few million devices it starts to be a major cost per device. And if BB "niche" is only going to be high security, that might only be a fewer than a million devices a year.

There is a reason that Samsungs new secure S4 is $1500 dollars.....

[Superfly_FR]

If this is true then maybe Prem is not a corporate the if but a catalyst to get other bidders out of the wood works. Who is playing who?

This whole story is fascinating ... so close to the final chapter of tome 1 and not yet a clue about who is The Hero here ...

[W Hoa]

National Bank Financial upgraded BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) from “underperform” to “sector perform.” The target price for BlackBerry has been raised from $5 to $9.

[m1a1mg]

This whole story is fascinating ... so close to the final chapter of tome 1 and not yet a clue about who is The Hero here ...

I think there is another shoe yet to drop. The next 6 weeks should be interesting.

[Bugmapper]

If this is true then maybe Prem is not a corporate thief but a catalyst to get other bidders out of the wood works. Who is playing who?

Lets hope so.

[Bugmapper]

National Bank Financial upgraded BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) from “underperform” to “sector perform.” The target price for BlackBerry has been raised from $5 to $9.

Wow. What clairvoyance!

[tiziano27]

I suppose they are going to reveal a lot of information about the state of the business so shareholders can vote informed.

[morganplus8]

Good morning class!

Both Prem and Mikey had plenty of time to sell their shares $ 2.00 higher than today's price. Why didn't they?

[lcjr]

Good morning gang! Feel like there should be some background music going on when I make my entrance like this. lol Hope everyone is doing alright and has a productive day.

[Superfly_FR]

The real question is what doe it cost to manufacture the devices... but what does everything else cost?

• What does it cost in R&D to design the hardware?
• What R&D to build and update the OS, to provide technical support?
• Still going to need to provide sale reps to call on corporate accounts, world wide so there is a cost to that?
• What does it cost to maintain their BB network - equipment, software, tech people?
• What types of licensing fees does BB have to pay of connection to all these different networks, and bandwidth?
• What types of patent licensing cost does Blackberry have per device?
• Will carriers want to bother with stocking, testings, training for devices that have such a low sell through rate, without charging a fee?

These are all a part of the "cost" of a device.... spread out of 10's of millions of devices it is a very small part, spread out of a few million devices it starts to be a major cost per device. And if BB "niche" is only going to be high security, that might only be a fewer than a million devices a year.

There is a reason that Samsungs new secure S4 is $1500 dollars.....

[Sorry for this short answer. Must go back to lucrative work ]
All the above minus network related items can be extrapolated from the current device ASPs and margins. Thats where (wet finger facing the wind) I came with my ~$300 "at cost" device.
Other charges are to be moderated due to limited audience (bandwidth, NOC infrastructure and employees, ...)
I'm not sure BlackBerry pays much in patents (Moto ?)
They might choose to distribute the devices in a B2B "direct sales" channel, including a web store for individuals (eventually co-branded with local carriers ?).

Short : Restraining their audience (new) against oversizing their resources to be able to fulfill/anticipate a quick raise of the demand (past, and they failed on right sizing, clearly IMHO), will provide mechanic savings that will lower their operational costs (that's the beauty of hedged targets: you know the numbers) ... while revenues should raise.

Edit (I missed the explicit answer) : Then they can decide to subsidize devices, exactly like carriers do : buy it off contract "full price" or buy it with contract and engagement/renew periods ... whatever the device price is.

[cjcampbell]

I suppose they are going to reveal a lot of information about the state of the business so shareholders can vote informed.

Yup... Friday morning

[sidhuk]

Good Morning Gang, stop horsing around. Go find another buyer, will ya?
LoL.

[cgk]

[Sorry for this short answer. Must go back to lucrative work ]
All the above minus network related items can be extrapolated from the current device ASPs and margins. Thats where (wet finger facing the wind) I came with my ~$300 "at cost" device.
Other charges are to be moderated due to limited audience (bandwidth, NOC infrastructure and employees, ...)
I'm not sure BlackBerry pays much in patents (Moto ?)
They might choose to distribute the devices in a B2B "direct sales" channel, including a web store for individuals (eventually co-branded with local carriers ?).

Short : Restraining their audience (new) against oversizing their resources to be able to fulfill a quick raise of the demand (past, and they failed on right sizing, clearly IMHO), will provide mechanic savings that will lower their operational costs (that's the beauty of hedged targets: you know the numbers) ... while revenues should raise.

Edit (I missed the explicit answer) : Then they can decide to subsidize devices, exactly like carriers do : buy it off contract "full price" or buy it with contract and engagement/renew periods ... whatever the device price is.

You are overthinking it - the answer is "whatever the amount samsung and Apple are spending" - because you have to make devices at least as competitive as their devices - as it currently stands, they aren't even doing that - and that was before they took the axe to the company. This is a market that now depends on scale and BBRY doesn't have scale.

[sidhuk]

By November 4th, when most of the shorts get dealt with, xBBM launched, enterprise agreements announced etc. then Prem withdraws his offer. by then he owns 30% of the company (most of it under 9?) and company announces a profit next quarter. Boom...... Then I woke up.

[kellyweng88]

what are the chances that Prem Watsa's deal is retracted?

at 8.62, I could come in for some more profit lol (assuming the deal is going to happen)

[Bugmapper]

Bsquare Becomes Authorized Provider of QNX Training - MarketWatch

[Superfly_FR]

You are overthinking it - the answer is "whatever the amount samsung and Apple are spending" - because you have to make devices at least as competitive as their devices - as it currently stands, they aren't even doing that - and that was before they took the axe to the company. This is a market that now depends on scale and BBRY doesn't have scale.

I respectfully disagree. For enterprise usage (split tablets apart) they are doing more than competitive (reliability, TCO, security) devices. The main break here is users willing to get a "free device" that fits their personal taste. Not the implicit value/quality of the device.
90% of my friends sport iPhones (4s-5-5s); no one ever discussed the quality of my Z10, under any circumstances ... once they have it in their hands. There is the hidden benefit : put these damm devices into employees/consumers hands. And listen to the ohhhs And surprise them..

[Superfly_FR]

By November 4th, when most of the shorts get dealt with, xBBM launched, enterprise agreements announced etc. then Prem withdraws his offer. by then he owns 30% of the company (most of it under 9?) and company announces a profit next quarter. Boom...... Then I woke up.

coffee ?

[Superfly_FR]

Good Morning Gang, stop horsing around. Go find another buyer, will ya?
LoL.

SELL LIKE HELL !!!

[tiziano27]

what are the chances that Prem Watsa's deal is retracted?

at 8.62, I could come in for some more profit lol (assuming the deal is going to happen)

Well, 8.55 now, is telling you that It's possible and the risk of the stock price collapsing after that is not negligible.

[Superfly_FR]

Well, 8.55 now, is telling you that It's possible and the risk of the stock price collapsing after that is not negligible.

Rectracting his offer before the end of the 6 weeks without any other bids ?
In the meantime ... lot of news to pop in. Stay tuned. And (c) M+8 : Stay calm.

[Kid Vibe]

Rectracting his offer before the end of the 6 weeks without any other bids ?
In the meantime ... lot of news to pop in. Stay tuned. And (c) M+8 : Stay calm.

When do shareholders get to vote on the bid?

[cgk]

I respectfully disagree. For enterprise usage (split tablets apart) they are doing more than competitive (reliability, TCO, security) devices.

So why are we getting press releases bragging about 60 device deployments and Heins hiding behind 'Test servers'? I'd heard rumors from resellers that BES10 take-up was dreadful but I'd dismissed them and was confidant that the enterprise services side would take off but after seeing that Press Release I'm now starting to reconsider that position.

[sidhuk]

coffee ?

LoL I Dont Drink coffee.

[Ribes Nigrum]

Good morning class!

Both Prem and Mikey had plenty of time to sell their shares $ 2.00 higher than today's price. Why didn't they?

Well I hope the second bid will be worth considering. Are you implying that shareholders who have sold for $9 got hustled? Anyway I miss the daily TA.

Posted via a laser focused BB10 device