[Kid Vibe]

You have some valid points cgk, but I have to say that the hardware division won't disappear. It may go to a more efficient builder, but looking at the whole BlackBerry portfolio, I come to the conclusion that bb10, BES, etc. Without hardware is like a happy me without the toy.
OK, poor analogy, but you get the picture.

I also agree. Also, it looks like December will be my breaking point for selling or not. The biggest question mark as of now it seems, how valuable is the hardware business? Nobody can get a grip on this answer.

No update on BBM...

We see no hope for BlackBerry at this point," Colello stressed in a note to clients following the warning on Friday. He said, in his view, BlackBerry was in "a death spiral."


-Morningstar analyst Brian Colello

How the **** is BB in a death spiral... If the company dies, it prob won't be done publicly. And if they stay public, the cash burn would still not drain BB to 0 for a few years is my guess. And didn't we just hear 25 000 enterprises sign up for BES10 Beta? Didn't we hear that Malaysia's user base is up 300%. Didn't we hear its strongest market is Indonesia. with a population that ranks 4th in the world? Ok. so BB made profits in March's ER, no profit last ER, and likely nothing this ER. I see a profit in December, a huge cut in costs mixed with enterprise revenue.

PS: Alicia Keys as our director of whatever the **** was a huge mistake... I knew this from the beginning. I'm pretty keen and 'in' on popular culture and I could have done better myself. For someone who is getting paid tons, she has done **** all. They should have got Madonna lol... Atleast she uses a BB.

Edit: OK here is the project, pretty cool... But how effective was it?
http://keepmoving.blackberry.com/des...icia-keys.html

[Bacon Munchers]

Hi Superfly... just my opinion, not based on clues, but I think the Z10 will stay. Also, I don't see where a Q5 will fit in a government...

Hi Reed, I have a differing view:

The Z10 is perfect for me, but problems like poor battery and heating issues makes it a write- off from a corporate standpoint, but may become the 'give-away' corporate device for touch users when acquiring BES 10.
The Q5 is today's answer to the curve, which I think was one of the best sellers due to budget.
The caveat here is whether or not BlackBerry brings a Q10 replacement soon. If they do, I go with your view, if not, the Q5 will be probably become the go-to workhorse.

[YangFui]

No, I was thinking of during the 12 dollar mark which would have been OK. Shoulda coulda, my hope is a buyout or something so I'll wait and see. Too bad we are under double digits though, doesn't look at all good.

Also, YangFui are you still around? Would like to hear your input on the whole matter... Have you sold?

Hi Kid Vibe,

I am still around. I will be posting a message shortly after this one.

Thanks for the shout-out... Be well.

YangFui

[YangFui]

Greetings:

I do not wish to predict the fate of BBRY nor do I feel optimistic about it. Instead, I think it's a good time to offer what are likely to be my closing thoughts regarding my personal BlackBerry experience. I'm no authority, just an experienced trader--in the same BBRY boat you're in--who might have some wisdom to offer. I apologize if anything I wrote here echoes what others have already written, I have admittedly not been able to read all forum postings of late.

Clearly, we here had hoped to reap handsome profits while long BBRY stock or calls; alas, many of us have suffered realized or unrealized losses. At this point I admit defeat. I had a large position in BBRY and lost a sizeable amount of money: I don't like to lose, so when I do, I try to learn from it and move on. I have seen some posters suggesting that you sell calls to generate premium or buy puts or whatever, but at this point the building is on fire--you probably shouldn't be running back in no matter what your strategy. (Selling covered calls doesn't help you much, by the way, if the stock continues to fall; and if the stock pops above your strike price, you will miss the upside action, which is what you presumably wanted to experience. You really need to know how options work before trading them--the details are *really* important. Option strategies are not so simple as some people casually suggest here.)

When BBRY recently announced the phablet-like Z30 out of one side of its mouth and announced a 40% workforce cut out of the other side of its mouth on the same day amidst a struggling stock price, I decided it was time to jump off the merry-go-round because I wasn't feeling so merry any more. I've had it with the company's lack of corporate and communication finesse and with the endless bad news.

I've also lost confidence in BBRY's comeback potential because the public, over the past two quarters, has clearly voted against our beloved BlackBerry with their pocketbooks and wallets; the press, across all media types, has voted with its unrelenting negativity of nearly all things BlackBerry (even positive news often gets a negative spin or snide tone); and a huge segment of the investment community has voted by going short BBRY. With massive layoffs, morale at BlackBerry HQ must be at an all-time low--and no other company seems even remotely interested in actually coming to its rescue. When you combine this with the chart and Friday's price action, BBRY just isn't the kind of stock I think is a good investment--even a speculative one. I could be wrong but I am unwilling to experience the angst of watching this company try to claw its way back to credibility. It's time to move on--there are plenty of other great investments to make with very high likelihoods of success.

All this is such a great pity, to put it mildly. BBRY had a real chance as recently as five months ago. That's when I was under the impression that no one cared more about BlackBerry's success than BlackBerry itself. I really thought that the company was being managed by rational, competent, honest minds who understood the business and who could pull-off a corporate turn-around. I think I speak for most of us when I say that I was tantalized by awesome BB10 OS-product videos and up-beat company communications and graphics. There was a moment when BlackBerry really generated great expectations. As a loyal BlackBerry smartphone user, I had every reason to feel enthusiastic and optimistic about the future of Blackberry. Add to that this supportive forum of like-minded investors, and it became very easy to justify going long and supporting BlackBerry.

Just because things played out the way they have, it doesn't mean that they couldn't have played-out differently. Stories of companies who were able to reinvent themselves abound--Apple and Best Buy among them (and most of those stories included plenty of naysayers along the way). So it's very important that no one here, especially new investors or my forum-friend Kid Vibe, think for a moment that they were stupid or reckless to have speculated on BBRY no matter what people say *now* (and I'm talking about the speculation itself, not the amount of money invested--we all should know not to speculate with money we can't afford to lose). The serious among us here have debated, deliberated, researched countless facts and figures, and came to a shared, informed opinion about BBRY's upside potential. We even availed ourselves of the excellent write-ups shared by selfless individuals who toiled away to provide detailed charts and chart studies (an obvious acknowledgement of MorganPlus8 and JLagooon). And despite the shorts and trolls, we even tried to factor in negative information when it seemed genuine.

In light of this, forum members who lost money are rightfully upset. But singling out members of this forum as frauds or directing anger towards any other person or entity is not productive--and it's just not a good long-term investor survival strategy or emotion. Any investor who took a position in BlackBerry did so presumably with some sort of conviction as to whether the company would begin to show signs of recovery (long BBRY) or would begin/continue to falter (short BBRY). Either outcome could have occurred (indeed, both *did*--the stock has trended up and down over the past few months), and I believe arguments for both sides were often compelling and academic, something that made BBRY a more divisive stock pick that I would have preferred.

I still feel that BlackBerry smartphone product-line quality and features are superior at best--and on-par at least--when compared to product options offered by other companies. What I grossly underestimated, is the stunning conveyor-belt stream of mistakes and missteps made by BBRY management--probably a complex mix of arrogance, incompetence, inexperience, naivet�, and the result of being out of touch with a smartphone market that has dramatically changed from the stereotypical Dockers-wearing IT professional who boasted having a BlackBerry device and devoured its physical keyboard.

So what to learn? I would like to hear what others have to say but I know that in future investments I will remind myself that:

1) Having an exceptional or superior product or service is no guarantee of market success. No guarantee of market success translates into no guarantee of investment success.

2) Company management is composed of fallible human beings. They are not endowed with ultimate wisdom and therefore should not be held to unrealistic standards or expectations. If long, never simply "believe" in the company: try your best to understand what the company is doing. The moment you feel a big disconnect with corporate strategy, it might be time to exit your position.

3) One should be cautious when the public and the press seem to have an overwhelmingly opposing view. (Contrarian investment choices often yield spectacular results so this is not a rule as much as an advisory.)

4) One should hedge one's bets whenever possible. If you have a long position that's very speculative, consider buying protective puts--realizing that you'll lose capital if the underlying doesn't move and your protective puts expire worthless.

With respect to BBRY, I perhaps should have placed far more weight on these experiences (and these are just the items that come to mind most easily):

1) When I walked into the big smartphone retailers in the US, such as AT&T and T-Mobile stores, and asked about the Z10 or the Q10, the salespeople inevitably began to yawn and in general didn't have any clue about the new BB10-powered phones (in some cases, they didn't know that the store carried a new BlackBerry device!).

2) When the guys on CNBC actually mocked BlackBerry and the guys on Options Action actually sneered at BBRY's comeback potential, it was clear that Wall Street--at least a very visible part of it--was almost mocking BBRY. Unless you're a staunch contrarian, that generally isn't something you want to see when you're long.

3) When I saw almost daily a new article lambasting BBRY, trashing BBRY, or just expressing skepticism about BBRY, I should probably have figured that if the press is expressing such strong sentiment against BBRY, why not reduce my exposure to potential losses?

Finally, as much as I have thoroughly enjoyed this thread on this forum, we all should realize that we are a group of like-minded people. While the advantages of being a member of a group are many, I think it's important to call attention to the fact that group-think can be dangerous if a member doesn't realize the power of group psychology. With the support of a group such as this one, members can feel invulnerable; can have a tendency to discredit outsiders; can fall prey to peer pressure to express certain especially dissenting views; and can feel a sense of power or control. I would like to think that many of us, and the wonderful moderators, have been keenly aware of these perils--but I do have some concerns that some people might continue to rely on this forum regarding their existing BlackBerry investment or making an additional BlackBerry investment or strategy. If you're one of those people, my advice is to go to a professional investment advisor and tell all--explain your holdings, your profits or losses, and seek an objective opinion or two or three.

Just because I sold doesn't mean that it's the correct thing to do, so I don't want this message to be taken as investment advice. I do think that people whose primary reason for holding on to BlackBerry out of blind faith or to recover losses or because they think the company will shoot to the moon as people cover their shorts should just consider the opportunity cost of holding on versus identifying a company with brighter prospects.

I will be checking in occasionally but want to take this opportunity to write that I am grateful to the group--it's been entertaining and enlightening to have participated and interacted with you these past months. I hope many of us are somehow able to keep in touch.

Best wishes to all.

YangFui

[cgk]

You have some valid points cgk, but I have to say that the hardware division won't disappear. It may go to a more efficient builder, but looking at the whole BlackBerry portfolio, I come to the conclusion that bb10, BES, etc. Without hardware is like a happy meal without the toy.
OK, poor analogy, but you get the picture.

The issue is that bb7 sales have gone off a cliff and bb10 sales haven't taken off, the efficiency of the builder is irrelevant when nobody wants the product - we will get the products already build and that will be that. We are pass the saving stage, this is now simply about positioning the services side to make it as attractive as possible for a buyer.

Even if I'm wrong, the perception exists that this is what is happening and that itself will push sales down even further of handsets.

[Superfly_FR]

Hi guys.
Probably single post for today.
I quoted the positive part (conclusion), witch I agree with, but you can read the whole article with bombs towards the board here : BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): Assessing The Fallout From The BlackBerry Disaster - Seeking Alpha

Friday's news was bad, very bad. And while the company has lost another battle, the war is not quite over. As I see it, it still has a chance to get back in the game, but only if it concentrates on the enterprise customer and nothing else.
Most important, I do not expect another round of inventory adjustments, unless of course they have signed multi year deals with suppliers. While I do not know anything about their supplier agreements, I hope that the level of incompetence have not reached that far.
So while Blackberry seems like a never ending lost battle, I still continue to think this company can be turned around, if it gets new management and concentrates on the enterprise.
Granted it seems like the end of the world for shareholders, however if this company does turn around, I am still of the opinion that it is a potential multi bagger in the long term from current levels. As to what are the chances for a turnaround -- if any -- that you will have to device for yourself. Everyone's risk reward tolerance levels are different.

[JLagoon]

Best wishes to all.

YangFui

Thank you, YangFui.

[Kid Vibe]

Thanks Yang, always can count on you for making a good post.

[abouthsu]

Thank you Yangfui, always good to hear from your perspective.

Sent from my SGH-I337M using Tapatalk 4

[Superfly_FR]

(Hurry post)
This sentence from official BB warning is in my head for two days : "we plan to refocus our offering on our end-to-end solution of hardware".
If I read this right, isn't that an underlying announcement of partnership for back-end hardware (servers, routers) ?
And CISCO is blinking again like a disco light ...

[georg22]

It will be very interesting what Alec Saunders will tell the developer community this week in the keynote. He can not seriously praise BB as a great platform with 70 million users with a bright future for BB10 anymore. Even the growing number of apps is no story anymore, because now we know, that the vast majority was created by only a few guys.

Will he have some good news? A partnership announcement? I hope this so much, but I think, he will only show some nice API demos an hand-picked success-stories of some (few) developers. He will be - as always - very confident. But it's his job to sound confident, and he is doing it very well.

[plane6065]

Well I am in Las Vegas and my biggest bet whether I should sell off my BlackBerry shares. Would lost a ton but watching how this company to screw us small time investors hurts me.

I say small for thoughs under 5,000 - 20,000 shares, and we held long in hopes that TH and BOD defend this company. They stopped before.June. I pray for a miracle, but now hope they can auction the company. ... I doubt it, but a private BO or JV would be nice.

Good luck for all.

Posted via CB10

[greggebhardt]

You have some valid points cgk, but I have to say that the hardware division won't disappear. It may go to a more efficient builder, but looking at the whole BlackBerry portfolio, I come to the conclusion that bb10, BES, etc. Without hardware is like a happy meal without the toy.
OK, poor analogy, but you get the picture.

How can the hardware side ever be profitable if the hardware does not sell. Even at discounted prices it did not sell. No way to make is way cheaper and maintain quality required for a good experience.

There is no easy way out.

[cgk]

It will be very interesting what Alec Saunders will tell the developer community this week in the keynote. He can not seriously praise BB as a great platform with 70 million users with a bright future for BB10 anymore. Even the growing number of apps is no story anymore, because now we know, that the vast majority was created by only a few guys.

Will he have some good news? A partnership announcement? I hope this so much, but I think, he will only show some nice API demos an hand-picked success-stories of some (few) developers. He will be - as always - very confident. But it's his job to sound confident, and he is doing it very well.

He's a paid shill - that's not a criticism, he's paid to say good things and will do so until his paycheck bounces or he moves on...

The *real* tricky bit this week is how he explains to the developers that they have just abandoned a significant chuck of the market that some of these developers were aiming for.

[OMGitworks]

He's a paid shill - that's not a criticism, he's paid to say good things and will do so until his paycheck bounces or he moves on...

The *real* tricky bit this week is how he explains to the developers that they have just abandoned a significant chuck of the market that some of these developers were aiming for.

AS has always been one of the best execs at BBRY, especially in recent times. I wish he had been named CEO, things might have been different. I hope he continues to be honest and forward looking. If he is lucky and BBRY is not, some of lucky Corp will hire him away.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

AS has always been one of the best execs at BBRY, especially in recent times. I wish he had been named CEO, things might have been different. I hope he continues to be honest and forward looking. If he is lucky and BBRY is not, some of lucky Corp will hire him away.

Posted via CB10

The other thing in his defense is that we simply don't know how and when he is briefed into things, he might find out stuff just before the rest of us - depends on the corporate culture.

[leafs123]

Downgrade from Misek to hold and cutting PT by almost half at $8 from $15. He's also valuing the hardware at a negative vs. his previous estimate of 0.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst...l?si_client=st

Also 2 more downgrade from RBC and Credit Suisse. RBC cut PT from $15 to $5.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Downgra...l?si_client=st

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

Damn, of all people, I'm hurt by that Misek downgrade

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

BlackBerry Leaves 4,500 Employees Out in the Cold - TheStreet

After removing non-cash losses from inventory charges, the operating losses should come in between $20 million to $30 million from $1.6 billion in revenue. At face value, that's a long way from not being able to sell phones at a profit during the fourth quarter, leaving the most likely scenario BlackBerry is nearing a "strategic alternative."

[ADGrant]

He's a paid shill - that's not a criticism, he's paid to say good things and will do so until his paycheck bounces or he moves on...

The *real* tricky bit this week is how he explains to the developers that they have just abandoned a significant chuck of the market that some of these developers were aiming for.

Any developer targeting BB OS 10 knows there is significant risk of platform failure.

[Chris2J]

I really don't know if I should sell. All I know is that I don't wait for the long term, so I hope we hear something driving the stock a bit higher.
I know it is also possible to generate more losses. What's your plan?

[georg22]

The other thing in his defense is that we simply don't know how and when he is briefed into things, he might find out stuff just before the rest of us - depends on the corporate culture.

Standing in front of anxiuos developers without anything to say about the more than uncertain future of the BB10 platform will kill the last bit of motivation - at least for me. When there is something positive to tell, he needs to tell.
He can not expect that the developers will make business as usual now.
My current BB10 project is "on hold" again, and I am "exploring strategical alternatives" now...

[Gekko]

At least nine brokerages slashed their price targets on the company's stock, to as low as $5. BlackBerry's shares, which fell 17 percent on the Nasdaq on Friday, fell another 5.6 percent to $8.23 before the bell on Monday.

[Gekko]

PALM invented the smartphone (Treo 180 launched on October 15, 2001). PALM was foolishly bought by HP when they overpaid $1.2B for it. BBRY currently has a market cap of $4.5B at a share price of $8.73. if they keep burning cash and the death spiral accelerates (which i think it will) i could see BBRY drop to $1.2B or less - comparable to what HP paid for PALM - and BBRY share price will be $2.33. you read that right - $2.33/share - which could be considered optimistic.

HP paid $1.2B for PALM and then it cost them at least $1.7B to shut it down. that's about $3B down the drain - getting close to BBRY's current market cap.

it could cost $1-$2B to shut BB operations down, hardware and brand is near worthless, and cash is burning - so all you have left is patents and a decaying tarnished dying antiquated enterprise business. and how much could these "magical" patents be worth when Google and Apple are already beating BB silly without them?

what's the difference between PALM and BBRY? have not any potential acquirers learned from HP's foolish PALM acquisition?

i still see $2.33 possible.

[cgk]

At least nine brokerages slashed their price targets on the company's stock, to as low as $5. BlackBerry's shares, which fell 17 percent on the Nasdaq on Friday, fell another 5.6 percent to $8.23 before the bell on Monday.

They are factoring in the hardware division is now a cost not an asset?

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4