[morganplus8]

Morgan; your pm box is full, so I cannot reply. "Keep moving"

Sorry about that!! I didn't factor in the response rate! Please proceed to the VIP room my friend. We can talk there.

[leafs123]

Can someone PM me the details of the new setup I see that's in place? I'd like to join as well.

Posted via CB10

[abouthsu]

Sorry about that!! I didn't factor in the response rate! Please proceed to the VIP room my friend. We can talk there.

PM me m8 if you see this. Thanks.

[tiziano27]

Hey JLagoon!!

You get to take the weekend off, no charts necessary!!! The next time you or I see a Pennant Formation, let's sell all of our holdings and run!

.....

Luckily, we have all weekend to dig deeper into those numbers.

Hey morganplus8, keep the good job, you are keeping alive your record of 0% predictive power.

Keep posting your TA graphs also, they are useless to understand bbry but they are very nice as decoration in the thread.

As Gesig Boek said, you are pulling numbers out from your hat here, more unknowns than equations.

[bungaboy]

If there is any room for a cranky Cape Bretoner in this "new space" please PM me.

Thanks.

[Gekko]

Hey morganplus8, keep the good job, you are keeping alive your record of 0% predictive power.

Keep posting your TA graphs also, they are useless to understand bbry but they are very nice as decoration in the thread.

As Gesig Boek said, you are pulling numbers out from your hat here, more unknowns than equations.

it's feel good, tell people what they want to hear, financial pornography - you'll see all the way down to $0.

[Kid Vibe]

Yup, time to get back to work. lmao. (me on left)

[Gekko]

Yup, time to get back to work. lmao. (me on left)

ha. at least you still have your sense of humor. you have to laugh to keep from crying. i guess you never sold on the bumps?

[Kid Vibe]

ha. at least you still have your sense of humor. you have to laugh to keep from crying. i guess you never sold on the bumps?

No, I was thinking of during the 12 dollar mark which would have been OK. Shoulda coulda, my hope is a buyout or something so I'll wait and see. Too bad we are under double digits though, doesn't look at all good.

Also, YangFui are you still around? Would like to hear your input on the whole matter... Have you sold?

[morganplus8]

Can someone PM me the details of the new setup I see that's in place? I'd like to join as well.

Posted via CB10

Forgive me for not being able to clear my mailbox at this time, we are working on a project and it will take some time for us to handle all of the interest. You are in our thoughts my friend!

[morganplus8]

PM me m8 if you see this. Thanks.

Please be patient, you are on the list my friend!

[bungaboy]

Seems to me someone is always offline at the same time as a different persona is on and liking the posts of the other?

Alert the authorities.

[BlackistheBerry]

Please be patient, you are on the list my friend!

Count me in please.

[Gekko]

“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

[Aham1984]

Please be patient, you are on the list my friend!

Count me in too please! Might get back in if it goes lower!

Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

This is fascinating.

[fedakd]

Ditto. Looking forward to whatever M+8 and plasmid_boy are working on!

Count me in too please! Might get back in if it goes lower!

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

I dont know where this 2.2 million BB10 handset figure comes from. Just because BB was paid for 3.7 million BB7 handsets this quarter past does not mean 2.2 million of the 5.9 million handsets that were sold to end customers were BB10 handsets. There are too many missing variables to conclude this.

We know how many os7 phones sold last quarter. This quarter should be lower so assume same for simplicity. Do some simple subtraction. I don't see the flaw here.

Posted via CB10

[leafs123]

People really need a life.

[cjcampbell]

trying something so some of you should be getting an invite. another easy option... I think.

[greyw0lf01]

This is fascinating.

It certainly is! The big casinos over in Vegas & Macau would welcome some of these guys with open arms.

[chrysaurora]

Count me in please.

MorganPlus8 -Don't know what it is, but I want in too


Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[OMGitworks]

Too much negativity here. If I want this stuff, I can visit a local day care. Too bad the discussion has deteriorated so badly. I have no analysis, they are withholding key info right now. A guess is a guess and that's all I could responsibly try to post. A few random thoughts:
1. There is no conspiracy either by, for or against BBRY, it is what it is right now. Terrible. Is it fatal, probably not. Will the stock ever see 17.50 again? It's hard for me to imagine how.
2. They certainly have cleaned house on employees and their balance sheet. Question is it the end or did they prune it all back enough to survive? I honestly can't say and think anyone who says they can is just guessing.
3. BBM will not save anything and has very little value.
4. Mock the icrap if you want, call it an inferior product, but it sure looks like they are going to sell more phones in a week than BBRY will in a year.
5. Hardware may be worth nothing, esp if you have to shut it down. If they really did write the handsets down to a buck, it tells you what BBRY thinks also.

Good luck to all, I really don't like reading through all the attack posts. People believed in BBRY and got burned. That sucks, don't gloat. Don't attack people. Have a nice rest of the weekend, I'll miss the discussions we used to have here that were, for the most part, very valuable and even on the tough days made my smile or laugh out loud.

[anon(4086547)]

Count me in please.

Would like to join as well if possible.

[kadakn01]

good valuation write up from another forum, no patent value assigned so that would be an additional amount to the FVPS of $10.80

So breaking down the press release:

Total revenue: $1,600 - 50% service & software revenue
GPM: 36% - implied COGS $1,024
Adjusted net operating loss: -$265 - assuming a 26% tax benefit, the pre-tax operating loss would be -$358
Implied OPEX: $934MM

Assuming a 50% drop in OPEX, pro forma consolidated EBIT would be $109MM per quarter.

BBRY cut 5,000 jobs in FY13 as part of the CORE program for a cost of around $220MM. After a 26% tax rate, this works out to around $.32 of per share restructuring costs for the 50% OPEX reduction.

Services & Software:

Revenue $800MM
GPM 86% (FY 2013)
PF OPEX $234MM (50% share of total OPEX after 50% reduction)
EBIT $454
NOPAT $345MM (26% tax rate)
3y cumulative cash flow $4,140 (assumes S&S is run-off over next 12 quarters)
Per share cash flow: $7.90
PV @ 10%: $5.94 (n=3)

SOTP assuming S&S run-off over 3 years:

Tangible Book Value: $9
PV of S&S cash flow: $5.94
Hardware run-off: -$3.82 ($2B to shut down)
50% OPEX reduction: -$.32
FVPS $10.80 Less