[JonCBK]

I have to say that the Z30 "official launch" happening at the same time as the WSJ article about "up to" 40% layoffs seems bizarre. But it is also bizarre that Blackberry would launch the Z30 in the same week that Apple launches iOS7 (which is currently available and will by the end of Thursday be in the hand of tens of millions) and the launch of the 5c and the 5s (which is a two part launch with the reviews coming out today and the phone coming out on Friday). Why compete on this week of all weeks? This is not just the iPhone launch week, which happens once a year, but this is the iOS revamp launch as well. Then you add in that BBM seems like it is coming out this weekend? While everyone is playing with their iOS7 or new iPhones? How could you possibly time this worse? Why do this at this time?!?!?!

So we have terrible articles coming out. But we also have management (and in the case of BBS, Google and Apple) timing things so that BBRY can't get a break. It is just tragic. And while I continue to hold my shares, I'm very worried about them. And frankly I'm worried about folks on this thread who hold a much greater percentage of their net worth in BBRY than I do.

[fin2007]

Why do people always ask for proof of people's trades? Who cares really. Any 'proof' would be easy enough to fake, and what difference would it really make? And what would his motivation for lying be? So he can show off to a bunch of people on the net who he doesn't know and will never meet, and who don't know him?

I just don't get why you would ask him to prove it, what it would accomplish, and why anyone would care either way?

exactly.

But to be honest, I was really a little bit luck I did not touch bbry right after I sold all from 14.x ~17.x, and it was traded ~14 right before the second ER so I did not want to buy. After the 2nd ER report, the trading became very easy, I just waited patiently to get in.

Now I build a large position on BBRY again, to be honest, I am a little bit nervous and hope BBRY could announce the buyout news every next morning, LOL.

If bbry is sold, for sure I would have a good profit again, even if not, I still believe bbry should at least worth $9-$10(but it really need cut lots of its headcounts).

I made a huge mistake this year for selling BBY at 16, BBY had a similar case like BBRY early this year, its former CEO tried to take BBY private at $24 a share, but could not get enough support and BBY dropped to ~13, I think I got in around $15, but when the deadline came, all rumors were telling the former CEO had no way to take it private, so I was scared to sell it at 16.4. It turns out the CEO truly did not reach a deal, but what the heck BBY is $38 now.

However, I do not believe BBRY could fly like BBY by itself.

[koolrosh]

I have a feeling next earnings will be positive.

I keep thinking about it and it would make no sense for Blackberry to annonce Z30, launch BBM cross platform, have a developer conference and then kill the momentum with a. Bad earnings release.

If I was management and I knew earnings were bad, then I would wait until after the earnings to release Z30 and BBM. On the other hand I knew earnings were good, then I would do like Blackberry did. Launch products, create buzz and let the good earnings increase the momentum.

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[Superfly_FR]

I have a feeling next earnings will be positive.

I keep thinking about it and it would make no sense for Blackberry to annonce Z30, launch BBM cross platform, have a developer conference and then kill the momentum with a. Bad earnings release.

If I was management and I knew earnings were bad, then I would wait until after the earnings to release Z30 and BBM. On the other hand I knew earnings were good, then I would do like Blackberry did. Launch products, create buzz and let the good earnings increase the momentum.

Play Starcraft? Join our Channel: C001242DE

Hi Koolrosh,
not sure we've met here before, so ... welcome to the StockBerrians gamefield !
I like this idea, because I believe Z30 launch has been rushed out. And I still can't figure why.
That'll be my positive thinking for the day; hard work to deliver and won't be much around today.

Have a nice day gang !

[bungaboy]

If I was to trust anyone I would choose an expert, especially if he comes with charts. Who would you rather trust? A non-expert?


Edit: this is a response to the following comment;

My apologies for not cc'ing him on my note to the other **** disturber.

[cgk]

Had a raft of new entries for the quarter results and a couple of people have adjusted their estimates downwards, the current position is:

• Average 3.15
• Mode 3
• Median 2.65

[greggebhardt]

I have a feeling next earnings will be positive.

I keep thinking about it and it would make no sense for Blackberry to annonce Z30, launch BBM cross platform, have a developer conference and then kill the momentum with a. Bad earnings release.

If I was management and I knew earnings were bad, then I would wait until after the earnings to release Z30 and BBM. On the other hand I knew earnings were good, then I would do like Blackberry did. Launch products, create buzz and let the good earnings increase the momentum.

Play Starcraft? Join our Channel: C001242DE

I hope you are right but in the past "the management" has shown VERY poor judgment so I can not agree with you.

I just do not see how the ER can be positive unless they greatly "skew" the numbers and I do not think they can.

[The Selected Fruit]

Good morning everyone!

Have been skimming lots of pages in the last couple of hours to get some ideas for the upcoming ER next week.

The absence of Thor in Malaysia yesterday has puzzled me. Why wasn't he there at the presentation? He is the CEO and gets paid to fly to far flung destinations. What is more, it was the flagship device being revealed. I don't understand this at all. Unless he has finally taken Morgan's advice some 2 quarters ago and is undertaking a toastmaster's course in preparation for next week!! Or he is busy trying to secure BlackBerry's future.

Something has to happen to BlackBerry in the next 3 months if they are going to survive either in its existing form or solely as a software entity. The customers, both private and business, are unlikely to purchase BlackBerry products while there is still a lot of uncertainty about its future.

My instinct is telling me that no matter what the ER will reveal, the price of the stock will fall. Even if sales numbers beats expectations, I reckon analysts will dismiss it as a blip and focus on any take out deal.

I know I said that I would hold my shares until the September ER but I have decided to offload them today and buy them back at a lower price after the ER. (Yes, I will kick myself if the SP shoots to the moon, but I will be very happy for you guys here on the thread who have held onto their BlackBerry shares and made this the best thread on the internet). I hope some form of a JV or licencing will happen in the near future and if BlackBerry can reach a deal, confidence in the company will come back.

Finally, I see from skimming the pages here that the merits of TA had reared its ugly head once more. I will only mention this once and promise it will be the last time you hear from me about TA. I completely support Morgan's assertion that TA can make you very rich. It just takes time to understand TA and how to put it into practice. I was taught by a prop trader and I can tell you that here in London, there are prop traders using their own funds pulling in quarter of a million ($400K) per week (yes you read that right) using TA alone. Some of them make so much money that they come into work only 2 days a week 'cos they want to have time to spend their money!!

Morgan some months ago was posting daily charts here and I noticed a recurring theme in his charts - the use of the 5DMA. He talked about it a lot and I decided to go and put it on my charts covering American stocks. Using the 5DMA with another indicator is actually a very powerful tool and I have used it to trade very profitably in the last few months. I was trading predominately currencies and commodities up to about 5 months ago. Now American stocks take up 50% of my trading. Just put up the 5DMA on your charts and see for yourselves. Look at Lockheed Martin to name but one.

Thanks again Morgan for your ongoing advice.

[cgk]

Good morning everyone!

Have been skimming lots of pages in the last couple of hours to get some ideas for the upcoming ER next week.

The absence of Thor in Malaysia yesterday has puzzled me. Why wasn't he there at the presentation? He is the CEO and gets paid to fly to far flung destinations. What is more, it was the flagship device being revealed. I don't understand this at all.

This is pure guesswork - business units keep going until they are told to stop, for example the WebOS team were at a conference discussing new products and the next version of the OS when they found out via a press release that they were being shut down. my *guess* is that Heins is distancing himself from hardware because a) either they have a deal with a company who doesn't want or need the hardware division or b)???????? something else he needs to distance himself from.

Now I've seen Superfly say that he's busy with the ER call and that could be true but that doesn't prevent his PR team putting together a quote from him to go on Press Releases - not only is there no quote on the material but he's not mentioned at all in any of the documents they have put out - he's completely absence - which is really odd considering he is the CEO of a tech company and this is the launch of their 'Biggest, best and fastest'.

[greggebhardt]

BlackBerry did not release the layoff news. The WSJ did citing people familiar with the situation.
If this is true the WSJ may have known this for a while then published it in the same day the Z30 was announced in purpose.

Posted via CB10

BlackBerry didn't put it out there... someone "close to the matter" did.

My point is why Blackberry would even lay off people near the date of the Z30 introduction. WSJ timing is bad.

[notfanboy]

I think that Heins simply has more important things to do than make an appearance at Malaysian launch, for a product that isn't expected to change the company's fate anyway. Preparing for the ER takes time, sure, but I'm guessing that Heins is spending most of his time overseeing the sale, talking to everyone who shows interest. It is a very busy and stressful time for him.

[W Hoa]

Can BlackBerry Be a Success Running Itself at 40% Off?

Wall Street must see some hope for BlackBerry, or it is fairly certain the company will be sold at a premium. The company's stock has risen steadily, but modestly, since early July.

The decision to fire 5,000 or so people may be a brutal. But if BlackBerry can hold a place as a third-tier smartphone vendor, it should be able to hang on. It will not be much, but it is a better alternative to going out of business.

Can BlackBerry Be a Success Running Itself at 40% Off?

[JonCBK]

Good morning everyone!

Have been skimming lots of pages in the last couple of hours to get some ideas for the upcoming ER next week.

The absence of Thor in Malaysia yesterday has puzzled me. Why wasn't he there at the presentation? He is the CEO and gets paid to fly to far flung destinations. What is more, it was the flagship device being revealed. I don't understand this at all. Unless he has finally taken Morgan's advice some 2 quarters ago and is undertaking a toastmaster's course in preparation for next week!! Or he is busy trying to secure BlackBerry's future.

Something has to happen to BlackBerry in the next 3 months if they are going to survive either in its existing form or solely as a software entity. The customers, both private and business, are unlikely to purchase BlackBerry products while there is still a lot of uncertainty about its future.

My instinct is telling me that no matter what the ER will reveal, the price of the stock will fall. Even if sales numbers beats expectations, I reckon analysts will dismiss it as a blip and focus on any take out deal.

I know I said that I would hold my shares until the September ER but I have decided to offload them today and buy them back at a lower price after the ER. (Yes, I will kick myself if the SP shoots to the moon, but I will be very happy for you guys here on the thread who have held onto their BlackBerry shares and made this the best thread on the internet). I hope some form of a JV or licencing will happen in the near future and if BlackBerry can reach a deal, confidence in the company will come back.

Finally, I see from skimming the pages here that the merits of TA had reared its ugly head once more. I will only mention this once and promise it will be the last time you hear from me about TA. I completely support Morgan's assertion that TA can make you very rich. It just takes time to understand TA and how to put it into practice. I was taught by a prop trader and I can tell you that here in London, there are prop traders using their own funds pulling in quarter of a million ($400K) per week (yes you read that right) using TA alone. Some of them make so much money that they come into work only 2 days a week 'cos they want to have time to spend their money!!

Morgan some months ago was posting daily charts here and I noticed a recurring theme in his charts - the use of the 5DMA. He talked about it a lot and I decided to go and put it on my charts covering American stocks. Using the 5DMA with another indicator is actually a very powerful tool and I have used it to trade very profitably in the last few months. I was trading predominately currencies and commodities up to about 5 months ago. Now American stocks take up 50% of my trading. Just put up the 5DMA on your charts and see for yourselves. Look at Lockheed Martin to name but one.

Thanks again Morgan for your ongoing advice.

But is this the right stock for TA? I believe TA has its place at best when looking at day to day and weekly moves over lots of stock. But TA gets swamped by a stock that has shocking new developments on a month to month basis. BBRY has that. BBRY makes radical new announcements of new products and completely unexpected earnings (or lack thereof), while its competitors also announce innovative new products (let's not debate if iPhone 5s and Samsung S4 is innovative enough, compared to most industries this counts as very innovative).

There is just too much new information in this stock for TA to be really the relevant game. If you want to buy the dips or trade daily, use it. But it doesn't matter what the 5DMA or the 50DMA once the next earnings release comes out. And it certainly doesn't matter if Lenevo wants to get into mobile computing field. And it is this big new information that is going to make or break this stock.

[Shanerredflag]

Interesting times...here is to hoping all the dooms dayers are about as savvy as the global warming group...remember when they had the world conference,(2007), paraded expert after expert on stage proclaiming that in 2013 the North West Passage would be ice free. Well, the ice shield grew this year and Al Gore became wealthy...gotta love spin.

Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

I think that Heins simply has more important things to do than make an appearance at Malaysian launch, for a product that isn't expected to change the company's fate anyway. Preparing for the ER takes time, sure, but I'm guessing that Heins is spending most of his time overseeing the sale, talking to everyone who shows interest. It is a very busy and stressful time for him.

You have an interesting way of kicking people in the back. Then when they turn to look at you, you smile and look the other way. That's okay, it's just interesting to see the pattern.

Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

You have an interesting way of kicking people in the back. Then when they turn to look at you, you smile and look the other way. That's okay, it's just interesting to see the pattern.

Posted via CB10

Lol what? Heins isn't a CB forumer. Methinks you're projecting.

[The Selected Fruit]

Your two possible reasons are valid. Very strange indeed.

I'd like to think he is busy trying to thrash out a possible deal however even with a chartered private jet, a CEO can do all this in flight mode, including preparing for the ER call.

This is pure guesswork - business units keep going until they are told to stop, for example the WebOS team were at a conference discussing new products and the next version of the OS when they found out via a press release that they were being shut down. my *guess* is that Heins is distancing himself from hardware because a) either they have a deal with a company who doesn't want or need the hardware division or b)???????? something else he needs to distance himself from.

Now I've seen Superfly say that he's busy with the ER call and that could be true but that doesn't prevent his PR team putting together a quote from him to go on Press Releases - not only is there no quote on the material but he's not mentioned at all in any of the documents they have put out - he's completely absence - which is really odd considering he is the CEO of a tech company and this is the launch of their 'Biggest, best and fastest'.

[The Selected Fruit]

A CEO can do all this in flight mode with the aid of a chartered private jet.

I think that Heins simply has more important things to do than make an appearance at Malaysian launch, for a product that isn't expected to change the company's fate anyway. Preparing for the ER takes time, sure, but I'm guessing that Heins is spending most of his time overseeing the sale, talking to everyone who shows interest. It is a very busy and stressful time for him.

[silversun10]

Can BlackBerry Be a Success Running Itself at 40% Off?



Can BlackBerry Be a Success Running Itself at 40% Off?

finally, somebody is starting to see the light at Wall Street

[Randeman]

Thorsten is merely conserving his own money. If a sale doesn't go thru (50 Mil), he will have to scrape buy with a mere 30 mil(?) or thereabouts. I'd be worried too if I were him.

[emtunc]

A CEO can do all this in flight mode with the aid of a chartered private jet.

Just a bit of light hearted humour but didn't BlackBerry sell their private jets a year or two back due to cost saving?

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

Looks like gold is continuing to rise this morning

[Randeman]

finally, somebody is starting to see the light at Wall Street

That article does not make sense. They quote "The revenue breakdown for the quarter was approximately 71% for hardware"

We all know that the hardware is worthless (or so we've been told).

[peter9477]

Just a bit of light hearted humour but didn't BlackBerry sell their private jets a year or two back due to cost saving?

At least one of the two, as I recall, but he did say "chartered" which is the rich person's word for "rented"... (I know... sorry to ignore the humour.)

Posted via CB10

[The Selected Fruit]

Yes, I agree with you that you need to apply the right tools for the right job. I gave an example how the 5DMA could work in conjunction with another indicator. Each security's price movement is reflected by the characterisation of the main players in the security. Some are volatile, some are smooth. All related to the major player's character and personality.

The TA will show how the markets tips its hand most of the time including the release of economic and earnings data. Price action will show this, however when there is a concerted attempt to manipulate the price movement of a security then yes, it becomes difficult to use any type of analysis, fundamental included to ascertain future direction of the price.

But is this the right stock for TA? I believe TA has its place at best when looking at day to day and weekly moves over lots of stock. But TA gets swamped by a stock that has shocking new developments on a month to month basis. BBRY has that. BBRY makes radical new announcements of new products and completely unexpected earnings (or lack thereof), while its competitors also announce innovative new products (let's not debate if iPhone 5s and Samsung S4 is innovative enough, compared to most industries this counts as very innovative).

There is just too much new information in this stock for TA to be really the relevant game. If you want to buy the dips or trade daily, use it. But it doesn't matter what the 5DMA or the 50DMA once the next earnings release comes out. And it certainly doesn't matter if Lenevo wants to get into mobile computing field. And it is this big new information that is going to make or break this stock.