[FastLane228]

Just wanted to show off the GREEN

BBM CHANNEL C000EF854 < bbry stocks*C0004ABC9<Pin friends meet

[fedakd]

Thanks for the update, Morgan. Always enjoy your commentary / analysis on anything stock-related

What I cannot understand is why shorts continue to put themselves at risk. I mean, do they think Prem left the board and is getting backing from CPP and other pension plans to not put an offer in, or put a take under offer in? I don't see any logical rationale for them to continue holding their short positions. Particularly with a lot of them likely being established at prices prior to Q1 results ($14-15/share).

[Bacon Munchers]

Is that pizza?

Posted via CB10

Say, who are those 3 girls in the picture on wall?

[rebekahlynnharrison]

Oh, me-little-devil would stand silent ... The more we wait, the bigger the "panic"

hee hee, I see your point....but I'm ohhh sooooo concerned about their welfare.

[Soumaila Somtore]

I am wondering if I will get anything done at my office toady, I can't take my eyes from the SP,
Love the green dance that BBRY is doing today!!

[herol]

Just wanted to show off the GREEN

BBM CHANNEL C000EF854 < bbry stocks*C0004ABC9<Pin friends meet

Hello, what app are you using?

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

hee hee, I see your point....but I'm ohhh sooooo concerned about their welfare.

[BrandonPBaby]

I saw bbry just filed a 6-K with SEC. Is it relevant to anything or just standard filing?

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...0095-index.htm



Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

I saw bbry just filed a 6-K with SEC. Is it relevant to anything or just standard filing?
EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001070235-13-000095
Posted via CB10

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover Form 20-F or Form 40F.
BlackBerry to Announce Second Quarter Fiscal 2014 Results on Friday, September 27th, 2013

I believe this is standard.

[BrandonPBaby]

Lenovo up 5% on 10x average volume.

Sorry if this is viewed as irrelevant.

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

I saw bbry just filed a 6-K with SEC. Is it relevant to anything or just standard filing?

EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001070235-13-000095



Posted via CB10

This filing is to simply give notice as to when they will be announcing the 2nd quarter financials.

EDIT - And SF beat me to it....lol

[ibpluto]

There's always something to learn in "Georges the Greek" articles.
No chewing: read !
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Microsoft Is Already The Number One Smartphone Devices Maker - Seeking Alpha

If this is true, then there is some irony to this. MSFT makes more on Android than Google does

[Superfly_FR]

Each little battle gain deserves a ...

[leafs123]

I saw bbry just filed a 6-K with SEC. Is it relevant to anything or just standard filing?

EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001070235-13-000095



Posted via CB10

It's just the dates for the next 3 ERs.

[Bacon Munchers]

Kind of quiet today (no news), so I'll just throw this out there... I went to BestBuy yesterday and you can no longer pre-order the XBoxOne or PS4. They are already over their expected delivery amount on pre-orders alone, so now they're wondering if any will arrive in the stores for purchase. AMD will make bank this holiday season!! This is at my location in El Paso Texas, might be able to pre-order in other cities still...

Nice. Always wanted to visit Texas!

Ever had a 'stub'?

[nquyen]

Django!

[Superfly_FR]

Give me a single Y-axis extra line for today, and I'll be very happy !

[Superfly_FR]

Django!

"The badder they are, the bigger the reward"

CU later Gang, 2 little birds to feed

[morganplus8]

Thanks for the update, Morgan. Always enjoy your commentary / analysis on anything stock-related

What I cannot understand is why shorts continue to put themselves at risk. I mean, do they think Prem left the board and is getting backing from CPP and other pension plans to not put an offer in, or put a take under offer in? I don't see any logical rationale for them to continue holding their short positions. Particularly with a lot of them likely being established at prices prior to Q1 results ($14-15/share).

Hi fedakd!!

Pretty complicated isn't it? There are several kinds of shorts here, some have losses, some have substantial gains, some are hedged and some are there to hold down the price of the stock while owning shares to off-set the price movement. So it is difficult to know where the trigger point is for each group. I suspect that of the 500 million shares traded since the June 28th Q1 report, a chunk of those are held in very good hands. Let's say 20% of those shares are part of a story that will unfold in the weeks ahead. The stock is held down to acquire shares for an offer, they are also shorted to setup an offer at some price above current levels. Some good math will tell you what price needs to be paid in order for the acquirer to get enough votes to take the company over or go private. In any event, it will be higher than today's price as the trading in the stock will result in a profit for someone at these levels.

I think that Prem, JP Morgan and others are doing the trades today and control the price of the stock. That's why I don't think the Q2 results in a couple of weeks means anything. They are WAY beyond those numbers knowing what they will expect from the company. This is why Prem left the board, so the board could consider all offers and make Prem's offer legal and binding. When you buy a company, you buy up all of the shares in it that are below your offer, this hasn't happened yet. A company like MSFT wouldn't do this, they are more likely to make a bid for all of the outstanding shares at a set price, this means it will cost them much more to take BlackBerry off the market than say Prem. This is why I state that Prem has first mover status, he owns a big block of stock that doesn't need to be paid for twice. All other buyers need to buy into the rally or pay a great deal more for the company.

This is also why I think the company will see a break-up in its assets as part of a deal. I don't think they can put together a partnership big enough to stop a take-over or going private. The assets are worth too much for a simple partnership to take place. The idea of a deal around $ 14 - $ 15 came about by the media because they simply applied a 40% premium to the then current price of the stock. So now you would logically apply the premium to the "current price of the stock" which is $ 16.00/shr today. What will the price be when the stock is actually halted for an offer? I think it will be much higher when that happens, let's say $ 14.00/shr.. So now you have a potential of a first offer around $ 19.00/shr plus which is where I think we are going.

This isn't Dell, they don't have the leverage to extract huge percentage gains out of their assets. Secondly, BBRY is much cheaper of a deal here. Prem and company only need to buy 455 million shares to take the company private, everyone else needs 524 million shares to do a deal. With 455 million shares and some unknown quantity held by others, Prem and his group can afford to pay you and I $ 22.00/shr and still own the company for a much lower amount on the whole. Good luck to MSFT in completing with Prem!

And so those shorts are a mixed bunch, some of them are going to lose a bundle, most won't, let's see how it plays out here!

I guess I have to make my guess as to what Q2 will look like so I had better go, thanks for the kind words my friend!

[lcjr]

Nice. Always wanted to visit Texas!

Ever had a 'stub'?

Don't know what a "stub" is or I'm working to hard and it's just not registering. lol

[potatoman3]

Hi fedakd!!

Pretty complicated isn't it? There are several kinds of shorts here, some have losses, some have substantial gains, some are hedged and some are there to hold down the price of the stock while owning shares to off-set the price movement. So it is difficult to know where the trigger point is for each group. I suspect that of the 500 million shares traded since the June 28th Q1 report, a chunk of those are held in very good hands. Let's say 20% of those shares are part of a story that will unfold in the weeks ahead. The stock is held down to acquire shares for an offer, they are also shorted to setup an offer at some price above current levels. Some good math will tell you what price needs to be paid in order for the acquirer to get enough votes to take the company over or go private. In any event, it will be higher than today's price as the trading in the stock will result in a profit for someone at these levels.

I think that Prem, JP Morgan and others are doing the trades today and control the price of the stock. That's why I don't think the Q2 results in a couple of weeks means anything. They are WAY beyond those numbers knowing what they will expect from the company. This is why Prem left the board, so the board could consider all offers and make Prem's offer legal and binding. When you buy a company, you buy up all of the shares in it that are below your offer, this hasn't happened yet. A company like MSFT wouldn't do this, they are more likely to make a bid for all of the outstanding shares at a set price, this means it will cost them much more to take BlackBerry off the market than say Prem. This is why I state that Prem has first mover status, he owns a big block of stock that doesn't need to be paid for twice. All other buyers need to buy into the rally or pay a great deal more for the company.

This is also why I think the company will see a break-up in its assets as part of a deal. I don't think they can put together a partnership big enough to stop a take-over or going private. The assets are worth too much for a simple partnership to take place. The idea of a deal around $ 14 - $ 15 came about by the media because they simply applied a 40% premium to the then current price of the stock. So now you would logically apply the premium to the "current price of the stock" which is $ 16.00/shr today. What will the price be when the stock is actually halted for an offer? I think it will be much higher when that happens, let's say $ 14.00/shr.. So now you have a potential of a first offer around $ 19.00/shr plus which is where I think we are going.

This isn't Dell, they don't have the leverage to extract huge percentage gains out of their assets. Secondly, BBRY is much cheaper of a deal here. Prem and company only need to buy 455 million shares to take the company private, everyone else needs 524 million shares to do a deal. With 455 million shares and some unknown quantity held by others, Prem and his group can afford to pay you and I $ 22.00/shr and still own the company for a much lower amount on the whole. Good luck to MSFT in completing with Prem!

And so those shorts are a mixed bunch, some of them are going to lose a bundle, most won't, let's see how it plays out here!

I guess I have to make my guess as to what Q2 will look like so I had better go, thanks for the kind works my friend!

As long as whatever offer it is comes before November like the rumor has it, I will be happy.

[BB Fightclub]

Let's say someone buys BB for $10.5B - the shareholders get $20/share. With the $3B cash, he really only paid $14.25/share or $7.5B. If BB issued a $5.72/share special dividend, blew out the cash, and let the guy buy it for $7.5B, the shareholders would get a $5.75 divedend plus $14.25/share for a total of $20/share. BUT.....the shorters would have to also pay the $5.72 dividend to the shareholders that bought their 160 million shares. That's another $920M in dividends to the shareholders. Now the buyer is paying $13.33 per share to get the shareholders $20/share. Does this make sense????

[nquyen]

Hi fedakd!!

Pretty complicated isn't it? There are several kinds of shorts here, some have losses, some have substantial gains, some are hedged and some are there to hold down the price of the stock while owning shares to off-set the price movement. So it is difficult to know where the trigger point is for each group. I suspect that of the 500 million shares traded since the June 28th Q1 report, a chunk of those are held in very good hands. Let's say 20% of those shares are part of a story that will unfold in the weeks ahead. The stock is held down to acquire shares for an offer, they are also shorted to setup an offer at some price above current levels. Some good math will tell you what price needs to be paid in order for the acquirer to get enough votes to take the company over or go private. In any event, it will be higher than today's price as the trading in the stock will result in a profit for someone at these levels.

I think that Prem, JP Morgan and others are doing the trades today and control the price of the stock. That's why I don't think the Q2 results in a couple of weeks means anything. They are WAY beyond those numbers knowing what they will expect from the company. This is why Prem left the board, so the board could consider all offers and make Prem's offer legal and binding. When you buy a company, you buy up all of the shares in it that are below your offer, this hasn't happened yet. A company like MSFT wouldn't do this, they are more likely to make a bid for all of the outstanding shares at a set price, this means it will cost them much more to take BlackBerry off the market than say Prem. This is why I state that Prem has first mover status, he owns a big block of stock that doesn't need to be paid for twice. All other buyers need to buy into the rally or pay a great deal more for the company.

This is also why I think the company will see a break-up in its assets as part of a deal. I don't think they can put together a partnership big enough to stop a take-over or going private. The assets are worth too much for a simple partnership to take place. The idea of a deal around $ 14 - $ 15 came about by the media because they simply applied a 40% premium to the then current price of the stock. So now you would logically apply the premium to the "current price of the stock" which is $ 16.00/shr today. What will the price be when the stock is actually halted for an offer? I think it will be much higher when that happens, let's say $ 14.00/shr.. So now you have a potential of a first offer around $ 19.00/shr plus which is where I think we are going.

This isn't Dell, they don't have the leverage to extract huge percentage gains out of their assets. Secondly, BBRY is much cheaper of a deal here. Prem and company only need to buy 455 million shares to take the company private, everyone else needs 524 million shares to do a deal. With 455 million shares and some unknown quantity held by others, Prem and his group can afford to pay you and I $ 22.00/shr and still own the company for a much lower amount on the whole. Good luck to MSFT in completing with Prem!

And so those shorts are a mixed bunch, some of them are going to lose a bundle, most won't, let's see how it plays out here!

I guess I have to make my guess as to what Q2 will look like so I had better go, thanks for the kind words my friend!

Do you think that they'll announce an agreement during the ER?

[Soumaila Somtore]

$11.50 Yeahhhh

[Reed Richards]

Hi Morgan, thanks so much for your thoughts! Here's what I'm wondering:

1. It seems like a deal to take BlackBerry private could be put together much more quickly than potential partnerships and spin-offs. If that's the case, how informed will the other large institutional share holders be about potential offers and partnerships? If Watsa and Lazaridis put together a bid to take BlackBerry private, say two weeks from now, will the other large shareholders be able to weigh that bid against growing interest from Microsoft or other suitors? Or will they be in the dark about what the Board might have in the works?

In other words, would large shareholders jump at a $20ish/share price offer now, or would they hold out to see what would happen from other deals? Sounds like Prem is pretty convinced there is high value in some of BlackBerry's assets, so would the others potentially leave money on the table by accepting his bid?

2. If Prem does offer, say, $20 a share, could short covering temporarily spike that price higher? Or would any price spike happen only during the rumors stage?

Thanks to everyone for the conversation, great stuff!