[Soumaila Somtore]

Thank you M+8 we can't stop thanking you!!

Let's look at how BBRY has been trading:

Attachment 198200

Looking at this chart, we have the short term 5-ema cutting up through the 50-dma for the first time since July/2013. We have tried for months to get above the 50-dma and today we have cleared it so the trend is turning bullish here. This is also the first time a short term indicator has turned above the 50-dma as well. So the stock is ready to rally again after building a base in the low $ 10.00 area. Abigail is looking for a test of the 52 week highs and so am I. We have a higher low versus this time last year, we have a higher low versus the recent pull back and we have plenty of news just around the corner. Look for resistance at $ 10.61/shr which is the 50-ema, we haven't been able to clear that indicator in some time and we are about to try it on again.

Today's news of Nokia finally agreeing to a deal with MSFT (rumoured for over a month) sets the stage for a more positive look at BlackBerry. You only have to look at the patent deal to know that BlackBerry has a tremendous asset there, they licensed those patents (didn't acquire them) for the value analysts are giving to an outright sale of BB patents. How dumb is that? Secondly, MSFT will be purchasing a losing hardware business that they'll need to pump billions into (hence the drop in MSFT stock today) just to keep it afloat. And we were told by those same analysts that BlackBerry hardware is worthless. It appears they were grossly mistaken on that call too. MSFT has little history of making decent business transactions, Ballmer commented that this was a small purchase for them and they know they will be sinking billions into this lost leader.

BlackBerry has an opportunity to demonstrate how their assets compare to this acquisition cost. Licensing of patents to others, $ 2.5 billion, hardware, my estimate is $ 2.5 billion, the balance of the business $ 5 billion plus cash. No one will be purchasing BBRY for less than a 52 week high, I believe it will go out above $ 20.00/shr if that ever happens. More than likely, partnerships and new products are the theme of the day. Anyone wanting to get into the mobile theatre will have to do business with BlackBerry soon.

Ha! Ha! You have to laugh at the reaction we got from those perennial shorts on this news! So have a good laugh at some of the negative comments that will flow out of this news while we wait for a BBM-X launch and BB 10.2!!

[greyw0lf01]

The argument on patents is interesting... that's such a crazy wildcard to value. I think the consensus was the firm (or at least the parts bought were sold well under value)...

Not every news bit can be spun as positive for BBRY...

[greggebhardt]

Microsoft had little choice except to buy Nokia. That is not so for them buying Blackberry.

[cjcampbell]

The argument on patents is interesting... that's such a crazy wildcard to value. I think the consensus was the firm (or at least the parts bought were sold well under value)...

Not every news bit can be spun as positive for BBRY...

Yet it seems that every news bit can be spun in a negative fashion....

[Superfly_FR]

The argument on patents is interesting... that's such a crazy wildcard to value. I think the consensus was the firm (or at least the parts bought were sold well under value)...

Not every news bit can be spun as positive for BBRY...

Do you mean this gives a - absolutely theoretical - value (whatever > 0, or even "not negative", as sometimes "analyzed") to the hardware division ?

P.S: I'm just not sure I did understand you.

[Superfly_FR]

[Thread news]
Looks like we have a bunch of new readers (and likers !) around: hey you, newcomer: please fell very welcome and join the discussion !

[greyw0lf01]

Yet it seems that every news bit can be spun in a negative fashion....

There's plenty on negative news to go around for BBRY. It would be nice to accept some negative news at face value.

MSFT bought NOK on the cheap and puts any BBRY deal into some kind of perspective. The deal was done w/ little premium and that's what i'm looking at as the negative.

The other "potential" negative is the value of BBRY's hardware biz; sales haven't been as robust and if i recall, BBRY has been trying to sell itself for a year with no takers. I would have expected the share price to rally a bit more but so far it's been pretty muted. If i'm Lenovo (most recent takeover speculation) thinking $17/share, I'd look to bring that offer in considerably knowing that BBRY is going up against 4 well heeled competitors (Apple, Google, Samsung & MSFT).

Just thinking out loud on the less than great news.

[OMGitworks]

Do you mean this gives a - absolutely theoretical - value (whatever > 0, or even "not negative", as sometimes "analyzed") to the hardware division ?

P.S: I'm just not sure I did understand you.

Unfortunately I think the answer is yes. It is the only way I can logically rationalize them spending $7.2B, yet the market now values MSFT at $16.5B less, 2 x what they spent? It can't be the patents and getting Elop back. Granted the market isn't completely rational but right now the market says MSFT was better of just handing out $7.2B (to me would have been nice) than it was buying the NOK assets. It must view the handset business as a sinkhole.??? Also remember MSFT has $60B it has that it has overseas that it would like to repatriate. This foreign deal with foreign money was attractive to them on that basis too. As was getting Elop back in the fold. Just my 2 cent.

[phil17]

hey guys, long time lurker and supporter of BB but work as a little guy for MSF. Quite disappointed in the news as I personally think MSFT would have been better off developing 1 halo phone under the "Surface" brand. the company effectively took on a bunch of dead weight IMO. Can't really see Samsung/HTC supporting any Win 8 phones after this.

I real this thread everyday and learn from folks much smarter than myself. I have been heavily invested in BBRY since university days (Waterloo). like many of you, I've been buying here and there after the last ER and have lowered my avg cost to $12 ish. To be honest, I much prefer BB to be taken private over being bought out like NOK but here's hoping a bright future for the company regardless!. really want this company to succeed. Cheers!

[zyben]

Is that a state park?

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 4

It's a view from the 17-Mile Drive on the Monterey Peninsula. The northern coastline is generous with spectacular views.

[cjcampbell]

There's plenty on negative news to go around for BBRY. It would be nice to accept some negative news at face value.

MSFT bought NOK on the cheap and puts any BBRY deal into some kind of perspective. The deal was done w/ little premium and that's what i'm looking at as the negative.

The other "potential" negative is the value of BBRY's hardware biz; sales haven't been as robust and if i recall, BBRY has been trying to sell itself for a year with no takers. I would have expected the share price to rally a bit more but so far it's been pretty muted. If i'm Lenovo (most recent takeover speculation) thinking $17/share, I'd look to bring that offer in considerably knowing that BBRY is going up against 4 well heeled competitors (Apple, Google, Samsung & MSFT).

Just thinking out loud on the less than great news.

They haven't been trying to sell themselves, they've been open to it should the right offer and/or partnership come along. Also, as far as the deal for Nokia's hardware business, how much of that division is responsible for Nokia's long and short term debt load and how much of that did Microsoft absorb? Also, they took on the feature phone business as well as Asha, both of which are non growth, low margin, and declining. There are many things yet to be revealed, at least to me as I haven't been looking for the answers, and to see this as a negative for BlackBerry is a stretch.

[Superfly_FR]

[...] if i recall, BBRY has been trying to sell itself for a year with no takers [...]

Well, that's news to me ... starting with the idea that BBRY was trying to sell itself for a year.
Rumors, rumors ... they live long and print hard

[Superfly_FR]

hey guys, long time lurker and supporter of BB but work as a little guy for MSF. Quite disappointed in the news as I personally think MSFT would have been better off developing 1 halo phone under the "Surface" brand. the company effectively took on a bunch of dead weight IMO. Can't really see Samsung/HTC supporting any Win 8 phones after this.

I real this thread everyday and learn from folks much smarter than myself. I have been heavily invested in BBRY since university days (Waterloo). like many of you, I've been buying here and there after the last ER and have lowered my avg cost to $12 ish. To be honest, I much prefer BB to be taken private over being bought out like NOK but here's hoping a bright future for the company regardless!. really want this company to succeed. Cheers!

Can you type "BlackBerry" on MSFT intranet and share some results with us ?
(This is obviously a joke; welcome aboard and keep your work safe !)

[plasmid_boy]

I have been heavily invested in BBRY since university days (Waterloo). like many of you, I've been buying here and there after the last ER and have lowered my avg cost to $12 ish. To be honest, I much prefer BB to be taken private over being bought out like NOK but here's hoping a bright future for the company regardless!. really want this company to succeed. Cheers!

Hey, I got both my H.BSc and PhD up street from you at Mac.

[greyw0lf01]

Well, that's news to me ... starting with the idea that BBRY was trying to sell itself for a year.
Rumors, rumors ... they live long and print hard

BlackBerry Said to Have Sought Buyers Since 2012 (Aug 14th)

BlackBerry Said to Have Sought Buyers Since 2012 - Bloomberg

[zyben]

Another patent:

Latest Patent From BlackBerry Details "Storage Keyboard Having Variable Angular Orientations" | BlackBerry Empire

[Bilaal]

Another patent:

Latest Patent From BlackBerry Details "Storage Keyboard Having Variable Angular Orientations" | BlackBerry Empire

Lol, that's my post, I wrote that

[bkupris]

Alright, I link before I read ... Xanax anyone ? (edited): it's ok
What Microsoft buying Nokia means for BlackBerry | CrackBerry.com

I believe he has become a turncoat and is now shorting BBRY

[cjcampbell]

BlackBerry Said to Have Sought Buyers Since 2012 (Aug 14th)

BlackBerry Said to Have Sought Buyers Since 2012 - Bloomberg

My problem with these is they claim to know people who know stuff but won't go on public record yet are willing to talk to a journalist about the private goings on that they no doubt signed an NDA over. Since they don't have to reveal their sources, there's no way to prove, or disprove the statements.

[sidhuk]

I believe he has become a turncoat and is now shorting BBRY

+1

[cgk]

I think that's a bit uncalled for - Chris is asked to give us his position, he's not asked to blow smoke up our arses - are we going to be saying that Crackberry Kevin is also shorting and a turncoat if he becomes pessimistic about the hardware division?


Now me.. I'm paid by MSFT and I am shorting the stock and will be dining fine tonight.

[morganplus8]

My problem with these is they claim to know people who know stuff but won't go on public record yet are willing to talk to a journalist about the private goings on that they no doubt signed an NDA over. Since they don't have to reveal their sources, there's no way to prove, or disprove the statements.

You have to admit, trolls make use of this nonsense to support their thesis all the time. It gets circulated around as fact when we all know it is fiction. Look how far the WSJ article got with a mobile business guy "claiming" BlackBerry phones aren't selling well in Mid-America. Duh.

This news is great for BlackBerry, terrible for MSFT and the main reason why Ballmer has to go. He is so incompetent at business dealings. MSFT will lose a bundle on this venture but they had no choice, they made their own bed. The good news is that they are prepared to pay large for their stupid mistakes. At some point they will want to "get it right" and talk to BlackBerry yet again. I hate that our Trust Fund ever bought MSFT, they are idiots.

[greyw0lf01]

My problem with these is they claim to know people who know stuff but won't go on public record yet are willing to talk to a journalist about the private goings on that they no doubt signed an NDA over. Since they don't have to reveal their sources, there's no way to prove, or disprove the statements.

Of course, it's off the record right, the only way to get a story sometimes. We can choose to believe it or not, but remember, there's nothing out of BBRY either way. The company hasn't defended any news story out whatsoever.

Ancient Aliens can return holding the Z10 device in one hand while holding a death ray device in another... TH & Co would still remain silent.

[sidhuk]

Sprint commercial shows off the BlackBerry Q10 | CrackBerry.com
Please give Q10 a few minutes of attention (and applause), courtesy to Sprint.

The best bb10 commercial I have ever seen.

[greyw0lf01]

You have to admit, trolls make use of this nonsense to support their thesis all the time. It gets circulated around as fact when we all know it is fiction. Look how far the WSJ article got with a mobile business guy "claiming" BlackBerry phones aren't selling well in Mid-America. Duh.

To be fair, they selected a guy who runs a number of stores within a larger empire under Verizon. For all we know he's merely commenting (out of place) for Wireless Zone. There's another thread floating around here stating that T-Mobile won't be carrying Z10/Q10 device any longer. I think all this points in the same general direction.

The article also also referenced a Canadian exec who declared the Q10 dead so it wasn't a standalone guy from nowhere USA.