[silversun10]

Some of the naysayers are just afraid that some new people that come here might take the optimism of some at face value and make financial decisions that are not based on real world conditions.

But when you started this thread two years ago, the stock was at $18... so I'm not sure that you are really RIGHT anymore than anyone that said BlackBerry was dead is wrong. The fact is they are in a lot worse shape today then they were two years ago. And call it being negative if you want, but production cuts, article about low sales and very little new traffic here on CrackBerry, along with PW steeping down and BB announcing again that are looking at alternatives.... well all together that isn't GOOD news is it?

I want BlackBerry to succeed, I'd like to see my choice of buy a Z10 not to turn into two years of wondering why I did this again (lived with a Storm for two years). And I think it is possible that some big changes could turn things around - but there is NO indication from the Company that they are working to make those changes or doing anything different from the PLAN.

I'm not trying to rain or your parade or anyone elses. But this thread is about a STOCK called BBRY, and about MONEY. Fanboyism and Stock investing are not a good combination. If someone took M+8 charts and analysis and ignored they fact that he is overly optimistic (like any fan should be - but investor should not be) and wrong quite a bit because BlackBerry did not deliver as expected, they might think that buying in right now is a good thing to do (maybe I don't really know).

this thread is a discussion about support for BBRY. so if you don't like that, you are at the wrong address.

[leafs123]

Sooner than I thought.

Exclusive: BlackBerry Z30 arrives Nigeria for Carrier testing | TechSuplex

[greyw0lf01]

Text of article:

One of the members of BlackBerry Ltd.'s board committee tasked with exploring strategic alternatives said the company can compete as a "niche company" in the smartphone business, but said there are "subsets" that should be sold off.

In an interview in Stockholm, newly-elected BlackBerry director Bert Nordberg said the board is aware of the value the company has created in areas like the enterprise business, hardware functionality and secure communications. It was the first interview with a BlackBerry board member since the strategic review was announced earlier in August.
Mr. Nordberg said there are "subsets within the company that it can get rid of." Mr. Norberg did not rule out a sale or strategic partnership, and did not outline which "subsets" could be sold off.

He did, however, say that BlackBerry needs to address the chasm between its value on paper and how Wall Street perceives the company's worth.
"If you look at BlackBerry's book value versus its market value, it's clear that there's lots of work to do," Mr. Nordberg said in a wide-ranging interview. While admitting that being a small player on the global smartphone market is difficult, Mr. Nordberg said he thinks BlackBerry can continue to be a niche maker of mobile hardware.

"I think BlackBerry is able to survive as a niche company. But being a niche company means deciding to be a niche company. Historically, BlackBerry has had larger ambitions. But battling giants like Apple, Google and Samsung is tough."

After trailblazing in the early days of the smartphone market, BlackBerry's market share and its market capitalization have collapsed in recent years. An all-or-nothing blitz of a new operating system and several new phones launched earlier this year appears to have fallen flat. And after months of speculation about its future, this month the company announced the formation of a special board committee to explore strategic options, for the first time explicitly including the possibility of a sale.

Mr. Nordberg, a 57 year-old from Sweden, joined the board of BlackBerry in February this year, along with retired Verizon executive Richard Lynch. While new to the BlackBerry board, the pair was chosen to become part of the five person special committee, which is headed by Timothy Dattels, a former Goldman Sachs executive. Mr. Nordberg thinks his inclusion on the special committee "has to do with my recent experience selling Ericsson's stake in Sony Ericsson to Sony."

The company hired JP Morgan to help with the review, part of which will be assessing the value of different pieces of the company.
"BlackBerry's unique assets make it stand apart from other phone makers," Mr. Nordberg said. "BlackBerry is strong on the enterprise business, its products are NSA-proof in the sense that you can't intercept their communication, its handsets' keyboards have many fans around the globe, and the company has a leading worldwide data network."
Mr. Nordberg says that though he's only attended three general board meetings so far, he and the special committee communicate "weekly." He thinks his view of BlackBerry's status is shared by the rest of the board.
Mr. Nordberg was a key cog in the massive restructuring effort of Sweden's mobile network maker Ericsson, after the company was on the brink of bankruptcy in the early 2000s. Ericsson slashed almost 60,000 jobs, reducing its headcount by more than half.

Later, as CEO of phone maker Sony Ericsson, Mr. Nordberg oversaw a major strategy shift and took part in the process of selling Ericsson's stake in the joint-venture back to Sony.

One of Mr. Nordberg's first moves at Sony Ericsson was to scrap the company's presence on the low-end market for basic mobile phones and focus solely on smartphones running Google Inc.'s Android operating system.

"As a CEO of Sony Ericsson, deciding to bet on Android was an easy decision," he said. "With BlackBerry things are definitely much harder. Blackberry's security framework is built into the mobile software, so you can't just decide to change operating system. But BlackBerry has cash and it has no debt, so I'm sure that we'll piece something together at the end of the day."

Last year Mr. Nordberg was elected chairman of Denmark's wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems A/S, where he oversaw thousands of job cuts and replaced the company's senior management, including the company's CEO.

"Sure, I've been involved in cutting many jobs in my career," he said. "But flipping the coin, I'd like to remind people that if a company like Ericsson hadn't been saved, thousands of jobs would have disappeared forever. Ericsson is now back being a company with over 100,000 employees."

[bungaboy]

Sooner than I thought.

Exclusive: BlackBerry Z30 arrives Nigeria for Carrier testing | TechSuplex

Figures they would get it first. They have all that money from their email investment opportunities. :-)

Posted from my Z10 via C10

[notfanboy]

In september what could be positive.
1. XBBM
2. Z30
3. Announcement of another BB10 device.
4. An OFP or a partnership.
5. ER widely expected loosing money but the good ER may be possible too.
6. Os 10.2
7. ?
8. ?
In September what could be more negative than we already have?
1?
2?
Any one?
Like TH resigning, q10 caused cancer etc.?

Well here are some possibilities:

1. XBBM may get bad reviews for Apple and Android sites, it may have bugs, it might be panned for not having the full feature set. While those are possibilities, in my opinion XBBM will be welcomed with excitement by the tech community.

2. You just know the Z30 will probably get the usual treatment from reviewers: "it's not that different from the failed Z10", "why would consumers choose it over the new iPhone, the new Note, etc". You can almost predict what the reviewers are going to write.

3. Announcement of another BB10 device - would be met with much skepticism by both critics and fans. BB would be roundly criticized from all corners.

An OFP or partnership is the great shining hope at this moment, although the odds of this happening in September is low.

5. ER reveals the truth about sales numbers. This is the big one If Misek is correct and BB10 sales come in at 2MM, then it will be widely regarded as evidence that BB10 has failed to halt the years long slide of BB marketshare.

[Tinomane]

I feel that if BBRY anticipates a really poor earnings they will do everything in their power to complete and announce a partnership or buyout beforehand.

If they expect to beat expectations then they won't make a move.

[Superfly_FR]

this thread is a discussion about support for BBRY.

[edit: this is an answer to scalemaster's post above, too long to quote]

At start this was all about activism pro-RIM and a faith mark. Earnings have always been only an option and I believe I've warned at least a hundred times about speculating, risks, long term and "biased by nature" contents newcomers will find here (and I'll do it again very soon, but tanning oil, sand and high sun light makes this operation a bit boring, even on my Z10).

I have zero problem with anyone raising danger flags, instead, I do encourage it.

About right or wrong, only at the time mark I've set (5yrs) a real judgement can be set. But as a daily contributor I can testify that I can count under 50 the days I've not read "game over" or such. My comprehension of "essentially" is "globally" (I may be wrong, sry for that) and - globally - BlackBerry is not dead, therefore my statement.

I do claim my Clown-ish status and never pretended my approach should be taken as a (the) valid one.
I'm only sharing my feeling about a particular situation witch many aspects leads me to remain confident.

This thread became popular (is that 2 millions + views ? ) thanks to the knowledgeable inputs many contributions have injected. And by the times, it became more stock than "support" oriented. Again, I've no problem with that, I do not own this thread, it's all ours.

But whenever I post here, I like to pretend it's a "fool, dreamer, fanatic" driven area, and I tend to see the glass half empty until "the fat lady sings".





Posted via CB10

[abouthsu]

Fellow BBRY longs, before heading into a long weekend, I like to say, timing is of the essence and patience is a virtue. I too hope for good news in the month of sep. Have a great weekend everyone.

[jfguay2]

I said I was going to report on (or bug people with) StatCounter progess and I am a man of my words.

Latest for share of BBRY in the US based on Mobile brownser has increased again. Last 7 days are now showing an average of 4.77% whereas July 10-17th was at 3.64%.

Also, along the lines of reports of BBOS 7 selling like hot cakes in South africa, for the same reference period, has gone from an average of 32.34% to 35.75%.

Again, we should all take it with a grain of salt, yes, but I like the trend just the same.

Cheers,

JF

They say that one "StatCounter" report a day, keeps the doctor away, so here it is:
Yesterday was at 5.09%, and last 3 days are coming in at an average of 5%, up from 3.64% for July 10th-17th. That is 1.36% increase in less than 2 months. Yeap, that's right, 1.36%!

Numbers for Apple and Android, for the same period, are a decrease of 0.3 % for Apple and 1.5% for Android.

That is the last time I bother you all with these numbers... for today!
Enjoy the long week-end,

[plasmid_boy]

Make sure your client's modem has the following settings:
8 data bits
no parity
1 stop bit
and set your receive and transmit buffers to maximum.

Brings back good memories...

[carbon fibre]

The "strategic alternatives" board speaks!
Nordberg:
"I think BlackBerry is able to survive as a niche company. But being a niche company means deciding to be a niche company. Historically, BlackBerry has had larger ambitions. But battling giants like Apple, Google and Samsung is tough.

OK then. "Niche" can only mean corporate. What follows?

First thoughts:
1. Assuming the niche includes hardware sales at all
-As the consumer market will be abandoned, no more sales in retail shops?
-Advertising completely changes and is drastically scaled back?
-More sales reps working directly for BBRY to pitch to businesses?
2. Software
-Big push for MDM seats. Their 80% price cut will help with the numbers, but not near term profits.
3. Consumer (supporting business users too of course)
-Big push for BBM-X in the consumer space. First priority to get numbers up. Something, something. Profit!

Interesting that Nordberg has a reputation as a job slasher. "Sure, I've been involved in cutting many jobs in my career," he said. Firing people has significant short term costs (severance packages etc). This will severely impact cash reserves.

So, a much smaller hardware presence (consumer market abandoned). Much smaller workforce. A lot less cash. Hope for business handset retention/expansion. Hope for BES uptake. Hope for monetisation of BBM-X.

Since this is a BBRY thread, I will make a first guess at a market value of this "niche" company. The market cap right now is.... 5.3 billion.

Layoff and other restructuring costs, hardware writedowns for the massive unsold BB10 inventory, I'll leave it there for the moment and knock off a billion for each.

First approximation with a grand total of 5 minutes digesting Nordberg's comments:
3.3billion?

[Superfly_FR]

Have a nice weekend folks, let's breathe and I swear I won't flood again such long and barely English posts !

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

I'm also taking off.

The missus and I are heading to Peru to climb a mountain.

Hopefully while I'm away Thor will give MS the assurances they are looking for.

GL all!

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

Here is the WSJ article. I high lighted the quotes from the director because news makers have habits of inserting their own BS to make it look like it is coming from the interviewee.
Director Says BlackBerry Can Survive as 'Niche' Player
Nordberg Says There Are 'Subsets' That Should Be Sold Off
One of the members of BlackBerry Ltd.'s BB.T -1.48% board committee tasked with exploring strategic alternatives said the company can compete as a "niche company" in the smartphone business, but said there are "subsets" that should be sold off.

In an interview in Stockholm, newly elected BlackBerry director Bert Nordberg said the board is aware of the value the company has created in areas like the enterprise business, hardware functionality and secure communications. It was the first interview with a BlackBerry board member since the strategic review was announced earlier in August.

Mr. Nordberg said there are "subsets within the company that it can get rid of." Mr. Norberg did not rule out a sale or strategic partnership, and did not outline which "subsets" could be sold off.

He did, however, say that BlackBerry needs to address the chasm between its value on paper and how Wall Street perceives the company's worth.

"If you look at BlackBerry's book value versus its market value, it's clear that there's lots of work to do," Mr. Nordberg said in a wide-ranging interview. While admitting that being a small player on the global smartphone market is difficult, Mr. Nordberg said he thinks BlackBerry can continue to be a niche maker of mobile hardware.

"I think BlackBerry is able to survive as a niche company. But being a niche company means deciding to be a niche company. Historically, BlackBerry has had larger ambitions. But battling giants like Apple, Google GOOG -1.04% and Samsung is tough."

After trailblazing in the early days of the smartphone market, BlackBerry's market share and its market capitalization have collapsed in recent years. An all-or-nothing blitz of a new operating system and several new phones launched earlier this year appears to have fallen flat. And after months of speculation about its future, this month the company announced the formation of a special board committee to explore strategic options, for the first time explicitly including the possibility of a sale.

Mr. Nordberg, a 57 year-old from Sweden, joined the board of BlackBerry in February this year, along with retired Verizon executive Richard Lynch. While new to the BlackBerry board, the pair was chosen to become part of the five person special committee, which is headed by Timothy Dattels, a former Goldman Sachs executive. Mr. Nordberg thinks his inclusion on the special committee "has to do with my recent experience selling Ericsson's stake in Sony 6758.TO +0.15% Ericsson to Sony."

The company hired JP Morgan to help with the review, part of which will be assessing the value of different pieces of the company.

"BlackBerry's unique assets make it stand apart from other phone makers," Mr. Nordberg said. "BlackBerry is strong on the enterprise business, its products are NSA-proof in the sense that you can't intercept their communication, its handsets' keyboards have many fans around the globe, and the company has a leading worldwide data network."

Mr. Nordberg says that though he's only attended three general board meetings so far, he and the special committee communicate "weekly." He thinks his view of BlackBerry's status is shared by the rest of the board.

Mr. Nordberg was a key cog in the massive restructuring effort of Sweden's mobile network maker Ericsson, after the company was on the brink of bankruptcy in the early 2000s. Ericsson slashed almost 60,000 jobs, reducing its headcount by more than half.

Later, as CEO of phone maker Sony Ericsson, Mr. Nordberg oversaw a major strategy shift and took part in the process of selling Ericsson's stake in the joint-venture back to Sony.

One of Mr. Nordberg's first moves at Sony Ericsson was to scrap the company's presence on the low-end market for basic mobile phones and focus solely on smartphones running Google Inc.'s Android operating system.

"As a CEO of Sony Ericsson, deciding to bet on Android was an easy decision," he said. "With BlackBerry things are definitely much harder. Blackberry's security framework is built into the mobile software, so you can't just decide to change operating system. But BlackBerry has cash and it has no debt, so I'm sure that we'll piece something together at the end of the day."

Last year Mr. Nordberg was elected chairman of Denmark's wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems A/S, where he oversaw thousands of job cuts and replaced the company's senior management, including the company's CEO.

"Sure, I've been involved in cutting many jobs in my career," he said. "But flipping the coin, I'd like to remind people that if a company like Ericsson hadn't been saved, thousands of jobs would have disappeared forever. Ericsson is now back being a company with over 100,000 employees."

Director Says BlackBerry Can Survive as 'Niche' Player - WSJ.com

[chr1sny]

Some of the naysayers are just afraid that some new people that come here might take the optimism of some at face value and make financial decisions that are not based on real world conditions.

But when you started this thread two years ago, the stock was at $18... so I'm not sure that you are really RIGHT anymore than anyone that said BlackBerry was dead is wrong. The fact is they are in a lot worse shape today then they were two years ago. And call it being negative if you want, but production cuts, article about low sales and very little new traffic here on CrackBerry, along with PW steeping down and BB announcing again that are looking at alternatives.... well all together that isn't GOOD news is it?

I want BlackBerry to succeed, I'd like to see my choice of buy a Z10 not to turn into two years of wondering why I did this again (lived with a Storm for two years). And I think it is possible that some big changes could turn things around - but there is NO indication from the Company that they are working to make those changes or doing anything different from the PLAN.

I'm not trying to rain or your parade or anyone elses. But this thread is about a STOCK called BBRY, and about MONEY. Fanboyism and Stock investing are not a good combination. If someone took M+8 charts and analysis and ignored they fact that he is overly optimistic (like any fan should be - but investor should not be) and wrong quite a bit because BlackBerry did not deliver as expected, they might think that buying in right now is a good thing to do (maybe I don't really know).

Seems like the original purpose of this thread was for people to revel and gloat over how much money they made betting on blackberry's sucess...Two years later there hasn't been as much upwards movement the stock price as originally envisioned, as you noted the stock was at $18 and now it only gets above $10 with buyout rumors.

[Gesig Boek]

There has been a lot of discussion about TA in this thread, but its pretty universally acknowledged that news trumps TA.

I assume the argument is that news is few and far between, and that TA is needed in between drabs of news and ERs.

In truth however news has been arriving pretty regularly, close to a weekly basis, and while we see daily TA charts we see very little systematized analysis and prediction of news.

Upcoming news include Kantar's world wide market share numbers early next week, Comscore's US numbers probably the week after, Monday's netmarketshare numbers, of course their ER September 27th.

While there are many here who believe BB's share price is independent of their sales, I am sure if sales were better their share price would be too, so I think keeping track of these important dates (and many more that can be dug up) and trading according to whether you believe there will be + or - news related to these is pretty sensible.

[silversun10]

"There has been a lot of discussion about TA in this thread, but its pretty universally acknowledged that news trumps TA.

I assume the argument is that news is few and far between, and that TA is needed in between drabs of news and ERs."

WOW

[Superfly_FR]

Seems like the original purpose of this thread was for people to revel and gloat over how much money they made betting on blackberry's sucess...Two years later there hasn't been as much upwards movement the stock price as originally envisioned, as you noted the stock was at $18 and now it only gets above $10 with buyout rumors.

Seems you've not followed this thread much

BTW I checked my trade history and my first buy was in the $15.75 including fees. But it took some time before my order actually got fired, as I had to open a "foreign "trading account in my bank.

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

There has been a lot of discussion about TA in this thread, but its pretty universally acknowledged that news trumps TA.

I assume the argument is that news is few and far between, and that TA is needed in between drabs of news and ERs.

In truth however news has been arriving pretty regularly, close to a weekly basis, and while we see daily TA charts we see very little systematized analysis and prediction of news.

Upcoming news include Kantar's world wide market share numbers early next week, Comscore's US numbers probably the week after, Monday's netmarketshare numbers, of course their ER September 27th.

While there are many here who believe BB's share price is independent of their sales, I am sure if sales were better their share price would be too, so I think keeping track of these important dates (and many more that can be dug up) and trading according to whether you believe there will be + or - news related to these is pretty sensible.

Not that TA thing again!!!!
And about the "news" can you provide a benchmark of their accuracy ? You are prompt to state that it's easy to convince afterwards with selective picking. Could you please filter the 100s of false news we've been flooded with and have been proven true, I mean accurate not in "the wind direction ? ".

Posted via CB10

[chr1sny]

Yeah it's a real struggle for me. Judging by how you react with 5 cent fluctuations I see how much it means to you.

Posted via CB10

When the stock goes down, the tune around here shifts to "money isn't the most important thing in my life" and "q10/z10 is still the best phone I've ever had". This thread is fundamentally flawed in that it equates buying stock with supporting the company when such an action is a symbolic gesture at best. Buying products is the most direct way to support the company for a consumer and not buying it's stock (at the retail level).

[Gesig Boek]

And about the "news" can you provide a benchmark of their accuracy ? You are prompt to state that it's easy to convince afterwards with selective picking. Could you please filter the 100s of false news we've been flooded with and have been proven true, I mean accurate not in "the wind direction ? ".

Posted via CB10

Given that the thread is about trading, it does not matter that much how accurate the news is, as to how trusted and influential on the stock price it is e.g. ER's are obviously very influential, Comscores and Kantar reports less so.

E.g. if we anticipate the next Kantar will show market share growth in US next week, and we expect the market will respond positively to this news, it may be a good idea to trade on the swing.

[cgk]

I'm also taking off.

The missus and I are heading to Peru to climb a mountain.

Hopefully while I'm away Thor will give MS the assurances they are looking for.

GL all!

Posted via CB10

Peru is fantastic - have a great time!

[Superfly_FR]

When the stock goes down, the tune around here shifts to "money isn't the most important thing in my life" and "q10/z10 is still the best phone I've ever had". This thread is fundamentally flawed in that it equates buying stock with supporting the company when such an action is a symbolic gesture at best. Buying products is the most direct way to support the company for a consumer and not buying it's stock (at the retail level).

Almost every regular contributor here is a loyal BlackBerry customer.
It's been discussed already for ages.

I do own 3 Z10 (ok, 1 free LE. As I'm a early developer), 1 Q10, I'm evaluating the Q5 for the summer (thanks to BlackBerry France P.R), owned 3 playbooks (2 were stolen last summer), bought one for my wife and a 9360 for my daughter but she finally preferred my 9900 ...
You sayin' ?

Posted via CB10

[Josh Brolin]

I believed you until you said someone stole 2 playbooks.

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

When the stock goes down, the tune around here shifts to "money isn't the most important thing in my life" and "q10/z10 is still the best phone I've ever had". This thread is fundamentally flawed in that it equates buying stock with supporting the company when such an action is a symbolic gesture at best. Buying products is the most direct way to support the company for a consumer and not buying it's stock (at the retail level).

Thanks, chr1sny, for dropping by and letting us know, after over 45,000 posts, that we're flawed in the way we choose to discuss and be part of this little community. I guess it's time to move on to somewhere less hospitable, less friendly, and less optimistic. Maybe Yahoo will cut the mustard for this one.