[ibpluto]

Still digesting today's news items.

Optimistic me says that MS 'holding off' on doing a full upgrade to BlackBerry 10 to get some assurances is far better than, "Morgan Stanley has decided to update their entire mobile infrastructure to iOS using Mobile Iron's MDM offerings. "



Posted via CB10

My first reaction was ****.....here we go again. was really down about the prospets yesterday/last night. Then it dawned on me. They are looking for assurances. This tells me they have gone through or are in the midst of testing BES10 and on the verge of ordering XXXXX amount of phones. Made me realize this is a hell of a lot better than an announcement that says we have decided to move towards iPhones and mobile iron. It tells me BB is still very compelling in the enterprise space, they just need to get settled down....they ARE still a player. Time for them to pick their heads up and get moving

[silversun10]

Wonder how many devices they move daily on avg?

whose business does not come to a near halt during the summer?

OK, besides ice cream vendors

[ibpluto]

I actually like it that CB editorial is providing that view, because it keeps us informed. Just expecting a more complete analysis.
I apologize if the hillbilly comment offend anyone. I was quoting a directly from my neighbor to give a sense of the place 's rural environment. Nothing more.
I have lived in some of the biggest cities in China, Hong Kong, Canada, Vietnam, and the US, but I have also lived in some of the smaller cities. Not good or bad, but generally people in different places have different preferences.

Posted via CB10

we all get accused of wearing rose colored glasses on here, and perhaps that accusation has validity. I agreee, its good to see a sobering perspective sometimes. We need that from time to time

As for Evansville IN. I've been there many times. .....and YUP, its pretty redneck

[Bilaal]

I actually like it that CB editorial is providing that view, because it keeps us informed. Just expecting a more complete analysis.
I apologize if the hillbilly comment offend anyone. I was quoting a directly from my neighbor to give a sense of the place 's rural environment. Nothing more.
I have lived in some of the biggest cities in China, Hong Kong, Canada, Vietnam, and the US, but I have also lived in some of the smaller cities. Not good or bad, but generally people in different places have different preferences.

Posted via CB10

I don't even know what you said haha. It's all good

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

However, simply looking at the WSJ report, I'm more convinced that I should sell before earning calls. Anyone think they will too?



Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

However, simply looking at the WSJ report, I'm more convinced that I should sell before earning calls. Anyone think they will too?



Posted via CB10

After the last one, and pretty much all events and the history of movement after, I think everyone is contemplating what they will be doing going into the ER. It is a tough call. BB hasn't really said anything this whole quarter, expectations are pretty low, and there is much confusion as to what the future holds and how it will play out. Personally, I think I'd be selling before hand to minimize risk and buy back after. If it goes up, some upside is missed but not all, and if it goes down, get back in after the dust settles.

[ibpluto]

I would be circulating this clip throughout BB today if I was in charge......

[Superfly_FR]

However, simply looking at the WSJ report, I'm more convinced that I should sell before earning calls. Anyone think they will too?

Posted via CB10

I'm not selling.
Still stick to the plan.
Still believe the 'niche' is enterprise.
Still believe 'something' is going to pop from the committee, in this particular segment.
Still believe the whole takeover option is fiction.

And - while CEO change messes the dance - still believe we will hear about MSFT (I've been lazy using MS previously, hope all understood it wasn't Morgan Stanley) .

Not selling before E.R, not selling after E.R, not selling unless I'm forced to (for whatever reason).
No balls promotion here.
I had a plan, I stick to it.

Disclaimer: I'm a clown, don't rely on anything but your plan, or the lack of.

Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

Chris and Kevin deserve credit, not condemnation for that blog post. It shows that in spite of their loyalty and personal feelings, they are still able to process information objectively. Chris has cited the WSJ authors in the past and he respects their knowledge. To reject them now because the report is not what you want to hear is just hypocrisy. Same with the CB site visit stats. Although I personally think that these are about as useful as StatCounter, Kevin has used these stats in the past to illustrate BB growth. To deny those stats now would again be hypocrisy. For anyone who finds the CB blog post offensive, there are other sites like n4bb that will filter out the bad news for your convenience.

[bungaboy]

It's the Friday before a long weekend. I am in my RV in a campground. Its 14C (57F) windy and raining.

How about some green today.

[notfanboy]

Not selling before E.R, not selling after E.R, not selling unless I'm forced to (for whatever reason).
No balls promotion here.
I had a plan, I stick to it.

Your plan is to hold for five years, am I remembering correctly?

What would it take for you to sell voluntarily? Do you stick to the plan and sell it on the fifth year, regardless of what is happening? If the price goes to $40 the day before ER, would you still not sell? If not $40, what is your magic number? $100?

[morganplus8]

Morgan,, if your feeling better and up to it what's your protective on the next few weeks? I know no news equals same old but if something different has caught by your eye would love to hear it.

Don't worry about the non PHD challenges....wanna bees trying to sound smart....google is a scary thing

Posted via CB10

Shanerredflag!!

Thanks for the question! I see a number of factors in this investment, there's the seasonality of the market itself, we normally can expect something of a correction in the market, and then there is news. I don't think a 5% correction means anything to BBRY stock, a 10% drop would take us down to the recent lows again, barring any kind of good news. The stock is strong down here with close to 1/2 billion shares traded, most traders are all in and waiting for the first shoe to drop. Deals of any sort take time, much longer than 2 - 3 weeks to develop, think about months before someone will step up to the plate. I would guess that BBRY and their "special committee" of the same old guys and gails will take at least 2 months just to position themselves to entertain proposals. Please don't take anything that the media comes up with in the interim as important to a deal failing or lack of interest etc., they are after clicks and don't care whether they create anything worth reading.

And so I rely on news as my focus, I think BB 10.2 make BlackBerry phones extremely competitive. I also think that BBM X-platform is a big news event, the numbers of downloads and what can be created from that data alone will be well worth our while waiting for. Finally, I believe that BES10 commitments is a huge positive for the company. BlackBerry was never going to make this huge comeback on the retail side of the equation, they are all about Enterprise now and the media is only looking at retail. They need to show the world that they can capture business again and I think that will only begin to happen on mass when they get BB 10.2 out, talk about BB 10.3, launch BBM -X and get some completions on BES10.

After all of these events launch, then we can turn our attention to deals, partnerships and a possible sale. I believe that BBRY didn't put themsleves up for sale, the media did, BBRY is trying to build scale and they publically stated this, the media found a negative in all of this and ran with it. Prem stepped down for other reasons, there might be an offer from him that includes Mikey and some future plans to take the company in a new direction, that's possible, but I also think his work was done with BBRY and he moved on. I don't see an offer from him until all other possible partnerships and possible offers are submitted. I think he is there to protect his investment and FairFax is prepared to do that in the event that a hostile offer comes from certain groups. I have often said that he is a 100,000 shares away from rejecting any offer that comes to BBRY, he will protect his investment in the open market if necessary.

In summary, I don't think we'll see a deal before we get Q2 out, BBM-X out, BES10 colour, and BB 10.2 across most phones with a launch date for the Z30 handset. I'm hoping that Q2 is a break-even quarter with some positive guidance, that's about it. I also believe that any successful offer will occur at new 52 week highs in the stock. The media and analysts dismiss the value of BlackBerry assets going so far as to say their hardware is worthless, how stupid is that? That's like saying your Porsche is worthless because there are so many other cars out there with wheels too. They are likely to end this year with 10 million next generation handsets in the wild, all of them producing to the bottom line. That should leave them inline for around 15 million handsets sold by the end of their Fiscal year, those numbers have value for a company wanting to get into the mobile arena. I'll say it again, $ 7.0 billion in sales on a unique, 42% GM, highend product is valuable!

That's my take, a slow but positive move toward growth here based upon innovation, product launches and better press .......... followed by our first indication of a partnership offer or a deal of some sort in the Fall. As for some of the clowns on this board, I try to answer all questions directed to me, once the other side fails to make any sense, I drop them all together. Take care.

[silversun10]

Chris and Kevin deserve credit, not condemnation for that blog post. It shows that in spite of their loyalty and personal feelings, they are still able to process information objectively. Chris has cited the WSJ authors in the past and he respects their knowledge. To reject them now because the report is not what you want to hear is just hypocrisy. Same with the CB site visit stats. Although I personally think that these are about as useful as StatCounter, Kevin has used these stats in the past to illustrate BB growth. To deny those stats now would again be hypocrisy. For anyone who finds the CB blog post offensive, there are other sites like n4bb that will filter out the bad news for your convenience.

on the other hand you cannot accept everything a fan website puts out. you need to critically evaluate what a fan boy website writes of course

[georg22]

Chris article is OK for me, except the last sentence:

... but if the Z10 isn’t driving volume it's hard to see how the Z30 changes anything.

Logic of this kind is plain stupid imho.
When device A fails, the device B will fail too, because device A has alredy failed. Ask Microsoft/Nokia if this is true.
I love my Z10, but to be honest, it is not the sexiest device on the market. The Z30 will ship with a better ecosystem, better design (imho), and a better OS. When it is priced aggressively and advertised hard, then it could sell better than the Z10. I don't expect a miracle, and don't know, if they will sell enough, but it's to early to make depressive conclusions.

[OMGitworks]

Yeah it reads like they have both thrown the towel in, a bit premature me thinks.

I don't think they have thrown in the towel, but are acknowledging the reality that in the US Consumer market the z10 and q10 are pretty much a failure to date. That meshes with what I have seen. I coach a HS sports team in MA, have 2 teenagers who have kids over our house all of the time, and regularly travel to Boston and NYC. I am also in a business where BB's were completely dominate and standard issue. To date, for both the z10 and q10 I have seen zero teenagers with either, 1 z10 and 2Q10's in the wild. I know this is only anecdotal and may not be representative but it is disheartening to me.

This does NOT mean that OUTSIDE the US or in the ENTERPRISE, CORPORATE or GOVERNMENT sectors the BB10 devices still can't be successful.

[Superfly_FR]

Analysts start to consider the end of tablets... this might sound familiar to us Sry for the Google translate.
Main points :
- saturation
- phablets
* - connected devices *

Yet it's for the long haul... oh, right; let's start on time ! I'm so long.. etc.

http://translate.google.fr/translate...s-tablettes%2F

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

I actually like it that CB editorial is providing that view, because it keeps us informed. Just expecting a more complete analysis.
I apologize if the hillbilly comment offend anyone. I was quoting a directly from my neighbor to give a sense of the place 's rural environment. Nothing more.
I have lived in some of the biggest cities in China, Hong Kong, Canada, Vietnam, and the US, but I have also lived in some of the smaller cities. Not good or bad, but generally people in different places have different preferences.

Posted via CB10

plasmid_boy,

Good of you to apologize about the hillbilly thing. My cousin's wife is from Evansville, Ind., she isn't city smart but man is she one nice person. I agree, there might not be much demand for a BlackBerry in Evansville as there is in Toronto or NY., but at least the author pointed out where the data was coming from in the article. And so we might conclude that BlakcBerry phones in that area of the country were a flop, big deal.

The only other comment in that article was about some unknown executive in Canada, again nothing important there. Chris's CB article was a little strange for him, as was the claim that CB isn't seeing more clicks. I look at it this way, I haven't changed my approach to CB just because I bought a Z10, the simple reason is that I don't have any problems with the phone, the OS or apps. I have over 100 apps, I use my phone all day and I don't have any problems. If I buy the Z30 with BB 10.2 on it, I likely won't have any problems with it either! Much ado about nothing man.

Many of us feel a little betrayed by Chris's comments but they really should be balanced with all the other times he defends BlackBerry. Let's get back to a BB 10.2 launch and more importantly, the holy grail of launches, the BBM-X launch!!

[sparkaction]

Thanks M+8 for your commentary. Could you also provide us with the most probable downside to bbry if your forecast does not work out? I was thinking something like a scenario in which there is no buyout or partnership and bbry was forced to grow organically (at the lower end of the scale of subscriber growth) for the next 3 yrs.

Thanks again and have a good long weekend!

[BergerKing]

whose business does not come to a near halt during the summer?

OK, besides ice cream vendors

Out of 21 years of hauling goods, I can say that July has consistently been my slowest month annually, with August picking back up as back to school starts and people start thinking about the holidays that are creeping up.

[Bilaal]

http://blackberryempire.com/blackber...-remain-usual/, good piece of news I reckon

Posted via CB10

[carbon fibre]

Chris and Kevin deserve credit, not condemnation for that blog post. It shows that in spite of their loyalty and personal feelings, they are still able to process information objectively. Chris has cited the WSJ authors in the past and he respects their knowledge. To reject them now because the report is not what you want to hear is just hypocrisy. Same with the CB site visit stats. Although I personally think that these are about as useful as StatCounter, Kevin has used these stats in the past to illustrate BB growth. To deny those stats now would again be hypocrisy. For anyone who finds the CB blog post offensive, there are other sites like n4bb that will filter out the bad news for your convenience.

My opinion of both Chris and Kevin went way up. Denying strong evidence of poor sales would be dishonest.

Also, there is no reason for head in the sanders to leave CB for N4BB.

they can just put chris and kevin on their ignore list

[leafs123]

At least someone is finally talking. India BB MD:

�I wouldn�t deny that (impact of the sellout announcement on operations in India). It did have a little bit effect on sentiments in the market because people started assuming that we are up for sale,� managing director Sunil Lalvani said.

�I will categorically say that we�re not up for sale, but we�re up for evaluating strategic alternatives which could include a possible sale,� he clarified, adding that the company will continue to roll out products and services aimed at business growth � globally and in India.

BlackBerry: We're Not Up For Sale, Business Will Remain As Usual | BlackBerry Empire

[Superfly_FR]

Your plan is to hold for five years, am I remembering correctly?

What would it take for you to sell voluntarily? Do you stick to the plan and sell it on the fifth year, regardless of what is happening? If the price goes to $40 the day before ER, would you still not sell? If not $40, what is your magic number? $100?

No magic number. Yes, up to 5 years (Feb 2006) is still what I believe the time before I can "buy my daughter a nice used car " (but may be more since i've added substantially since Feb 11). If the plan is successful, I believe the valuation of BlackBerry Wil be well above his 2008 (?) valuation, around $120 if my rosy glasses don't distort too much

I know traders that would virtually kill for a 30% net profit. I'm not in that scale, I'm on the 10x scale.

I do perfectly know it's - as of date - out of sight and most will think "this guy is just crazy or plain stupid". So were the guys who dropped a few bucks in APPL 10 years ago.

I can afford to lose these - labor earned - $$. So yeah, I bought shares, as I might have put love money for a startup, and I'm waiting (with some free supporting activism of my own) for the big day.

$100 party makes you snile ?
I'm still waiting and no doubt I'll buy some drinks around, ruining mostly my gains. Yeah, this day I'll be king of my wish-dom (no typo here). And I'll dance to death. Oka Hey.

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

However, simply looking at the WSJ report, I'm more convinced that I should sell before earning calls. Anyone think they will too?
Posted via CB10

Sell

BlackBerry is done for as we know it - we knew that consumers weren't buying the Z10. That enterprise is not buying the Q10 is bad. That they cut licensing fees at the same time reinforces that devices and most likely the even MDM systems and licensees are not selling either.

Whatever comes about as far as going private or a buyout, it will be for less that what the value is today. BlackBerry has SHOWN that the BB10 platform as it is, can not compete in today's market. No one is going to want the BlackBerry smartphone business at face value - most likey no one is going to want it at all. It is useless without an ecosystem, and the cost to build said ecosystem and then relaunch is going to exceed what anyone is going to be willing to risk. Anyone that is buying is going to want to buy UNDER the book value (or any valuation), the only reason to buy is so that you can turn around and "flip" your investment and make money.

Even IF there is a niche market for BB devices - it will need a stable company to offer it. But honestly I think that Apps are just as important in the Enterprise market, smartphones are NOT just for communications today! Security IS important, but so is compatibility and having standards. If security was always the governing factor, do you really think that the so many Enterprise customers would be using Windows PC's?

[Superfly_FR]

Oh my..
Again...

If BlackBerry is back as undisputed #1 for Enterprises...



Posted via CB10