[Kid Vibe]

Took a look at my portfolio today. I'd love a buyout at over $17. $20+ would be awesome. Just want this adventure to end.

Better yet will be an earnings surprise when earnings come out on (or about on) 9/27/2013. But sadly, I don't think they'll be making a profit.

A surprise ER would really be a swift kick for the shorts... Especially since now, BB will be more prone to continue to work at creating value and increased profits for December (which would include BBM and more so BES10 rollouts). In doing so, the company will look more attractive and a potential buyout could occur at a $20+ share price. I hope TH does give us some guidance before next ER (preferably a couple weeks) if the company has not officially been bought out.

Also, what is up with these Q10 bashing reports? Where do the articles get these sources from? Damn Wall Street.

[kfh227]

A surprise ER would really be a swift kick for the shorts... Especially since now, BB will be more prone to continue to work at creating value and increased profits for December (which would include BBM and more so BES10 rollouts). In doing so, the company will look more attractive and a potential buyout could occur at a $20+ share price. I hope TH does give us some guidance before next ER (preferably a couple weeks) if the company has not officially been bought out.

Also, what is up with these Q10 bashing reports? Where do the articles get these sources from? Damn Wall Street.

Mid-West USA is where the "survey" was done.

Sales of BlackBerry's Q10 Keyboard Phone Fall Flat - WSJ.com

One of the operators of 16 Wireless Zone stores, Chris Jourdan, told Journal that there was a meager demand of BlackBerry Q10, and those who purchased it came back to return the device after few days.

“We saw virtually no demand for the Q10 and eventually returned most of them to our equipment vendor,” Chris Jourdan said.

Mr Jourdan is in Evansville, Indiana. How on Earth did the WSJ single this guy out?

They also quote some "canadian guy" and a person from Next Worth .... Chief Marketing officer at Next Worth, Jeff Trachel said that both BlackBerry- Z10 and Q10 were “non-events” from trade-in perspective. (EDIT: OK ... this makes sense. A new phone launch usually comes with sales of old phones from the same manufacturer)

NEXT WROTH APPEARS TO BUY USED PHONES!
http://www.nextworth.com/

A non event at Next Worth is a good thing. Imagine if they were already getting Q10s?

[cjcampbell]

A surprise ER would really be a swift kick for the shorts... Especially since now, BB will be more prone to continue to work at creating value and increased profits for December (which would include BBM and more so BES10 rollouts). In doing so, the company will look more attractive and a potential buyout could occur at a $20+ share price. I hope TH does give us some guidance before next ER (preferably a couple weeks) if the company has not officially been bought out.

Also, what is up with these Q10 bashing reports? Where do the articles get these sources from? Damn Wall Street.

Funny how they come out at the end of the quarter eh?

[chrysaurora]

A surprise ER would really be a swift kick for the shorts...

Indeed. Surprise ER would be nice. But let's go by what Thor said. Expect a loss and some cash burn.

A non event at Next Worth is a good thing. Imagine if they were already getting Q10s?

lol - but this time let's keep our expectations in check. Thor said to expect loss + cash burn. Let's be prepared for even worse (more than expected cash burn, and more than expected loss) but let's hope for the best!

[Shanerredflag]

Morgan,, if your feeling better and up to it what's your protective on the next few weeks? I know no news equals same old but if something different has caught by your eye would love to hear it.

Don't worry about the non PHD challenges....wanna bees trying to sound smart....google is a scary thing

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

I should go to bed.

I did a quick DCF of BBRY. I took a pesimistic approach.

I took BBRY FCF down to about $600 million this fiscal year. Then I assumed some good growth for two fiscal years followed by slow growth. I did not tinker with total equity since it is a small component of the valuation. Having said that, I think total equity will drop this year by $100s of millions. But I think that trend will reverse.

Anyway, enjoy the attached JPEG. I figure BBRY is worth somewhere in the $34-$39 range. I took a more optimistic view of things and the value wasn't much more.

Keep focused. BBRY can still get some consumers and they will get a chunk of the enterprise along with the other smaller industries they serve (QNX, etc). Revenues didn't jump $394 million (14.7%) for no reason. Granted alot of that looks like it could have come from higher margin sales of BB10 devices.

[greyw0lf01]

Wireless Zone is the largest wireless franchise in the U.S.

I'd otherwise be skeptical of these guys until I used the Google... ~500 stores nationwide (both coasts inclusive of corp stores) & $400mm in revenue. Not a random drive by night shop.

[kfh227]

Wireless Zone is the largest wireless franchise in the U.S.

I'd otherwise be skeptical of these guys until I used the Google... ~500 stores nationwide (both coasts inclusive of corp stores) & $400mm in revenue. Not a random drive by night shop.

This was one person's comments based on the 16 stores he manages. Not 500.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Still digesting today's news items.

Optimistic me says that MS 'holding off' on doing a full upgrade to BlackBerry 10 to get some assurances is far better than, "Morgan Stanley has decided to update their entire mobile infrastructure to iOS using Mobile Iron's MDM offerings. "



Posted via CB10

[carbon fibre]

Well you are right. There it is. I just tried it and it was a far scroll down well past the bottom of the screen but I got to the makes it available. Since it is there and not just left as an easter egg I guess we don't have to worry about it going away anytime soon.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

Too bad there wasn't some way to reduce the number of suggestions. Maybe even eliminate them so the "Make this map area available offline" button appears without any scrolling at all.

Wonder what that X on the right side of the search box does?

[fedakd]

So essentially 2 x book value + the cash per share. Exactly what Dell is being taken private for.

We need the BlackBerry board to deliver here!

I should go to bed.

I did a quick DCF of BBRY. I took a pesimistic approach.

I took BBRY FCF down to about $600 million this fiscal year. Then I assumed some good growth for two fiscal years followed by slow growth. I did not tinker with total equity since it is a small component of the valuation. Having said that, I think total equity will drop this year by $100s of millions. But I think that trend will reverse.

Anyway, enjoy the attached JPEG. I figure BBRY is worth somewhere in the $34-$39 range. I took a more optimistic view of things and the value wasn't much more.

Keep focused. BBRY can still get some consumers and they will get a chunk of the enterprise along with the other smaller industries they serve (QNX, etc). Revenues didn't jump $394 million (14.7%) for no reason. Granted alot of that looks like it could have come from higher margin sales of BB10 devices.

[cgk]

One thing they left out of their analysis is the Show that CB has become since launch.

How many hundreds of thousands don't bother coming back to the Troll Fest after a few visits?

This is not coincidental. Our thread is perfect example of haters on an orchestrated bash fest.

I guess Kevin and Chris are haters on an orchestrated bash fest? Because they seem to think a) the article is right and b) that traffic on crackberry hasn't moved.

[Superfly_FR]

I guess Kevin and Chris are haters on an orchestrated bash fest? Because they seem to think a) the article is right and b) that traffic on crackberry hasn't moved.

[ambassador sticker off]
First and last comment about this:
This blog post is a pain. Chris missed the whole Enterprise thing, blessed the WSJ "study" and even offered some kind of stats we won't be long to read elsewhere with a disastrous "even CB doesn't believe they can do it". While I cannot and do not suspect his reasoning and accept this vision, I'm pissed right now to read this on CB homepage. This would have been fine on his blog or whatever other publication he's contributing, but on CB ???? What a disastrous shot in the feet.

[ambassador sticker on - end of rant - please don't expect me to answer further ]

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

But if you read it, it is not simply Chris, Kevin seems to support that position .

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

[bkupris]

But if you read it, it is not simply Chris, Kevin seems to support that position .

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

Yeah it reads like they have both thrown the towel in, a bit premature me thinks.

[bungaboy]

It never ceases to amaze me how some people who claim to have PhDs and are CEOs lack basic reading and comprehension skills.

[bungaboy]

Yeah it reads like they have both thrown the towel in, a bit premature me thinks.

How arrogant for Chris and Kevin to suggest that the Q10 isn't doing well because there is not a flood of new readers of CrackBerry.

I know dozens of BlackBerry users who have never even heard about CB, let alone visit the site.

I certainly would not expect executives with new Q10s to flood CB forums.

Think about it. They are users not cult followers.

[plasmid_boy]

I should go to bed.

I did a quick DCF of BBRY. I took a pesimistic approach.

I took BBRY FCF down to about $600 million this fiscal year. Then I assumed some good growth for two fiscal years followed by slow growth. I did not tinker with total equity since it is a small component of the valuation. Having said that, I think total equity will drop this year by $100s of millions. But I think that trend will reverse.

Anyway, enjoy the attached JPEG. I figure BBRY is worth somewhere in the $34-$39 range. I took a more optimistic view of things and the value wasn't much more.

Keep focused. BBRY can still get some consumers and they will get a chunk of the enterprise along with the other smaller industries they serve (QNX, etc). Revenues didn't jump $394 million (14.7%) for no reason. Granted alot of that looks like it could have come from higher margin sales of BB10 devices.

If this is your new beer talking, I like it.
Evansville is in the southern tip of Indiana. I only heard of it because there is some grape vineyards there (I make wine as a hobby). A neighbor who used to work there about 5 years ago told me that it is "a whole different world down there". Not sure what that means, but he did mentioned "hillbilly" and such. If anyone know any better, please correct this. In any case, Evansville is probably not representative of typical BlackBerry customers. To me, it is like looking at sells numbers in downtown Manhattan to guage the interest levels for a new farming tractor.

Totally disappointed by the front page CB coverage of this. No problem with supporting the validity of the WSJ's study, but to support its conclusion without digging into sample size and representative sampling is very disappointing because it gives a faults impression that it is true every where.

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

Mid-West USA is where the "survey" was done.

Sales of BlackBerry's Q10 Keyboard Phone Fall Flat - WSJ.com

One of the operators of 16 Wireless Zone stores, Chris Jourdan, told Journal that there was a meager demand of BlackBerry Q10, and those who purchased it came back to return the device after few days.

“We saw virtually no demand for the Q10 and eventually returned most of them to our equipment vendor,” Chris Jourdan said.

Mr Jourdan is in Evansville, Indiana. How on Earth did the WSJ single this guy out?

They also quote some "canadian guy" and a person from Next Worth .... Chief Marketing officer at Next Worth, Jeff Trachel said that both BlackBerry- Z10 and Q10 were “non-events” from trade-in perspective. (EDIT: OK ... this makes sense. A new phone launch usually comes with sales of old phones from the same manufacturer)

NEXT WROTH APPEARS TO BUY USED PHONES!
http://www.nextworth.com/

A non event at Next Worth is a good thing. Imagine if they were already getting Q10s?

not to mention it is Summer Vacation Time and so business is supposed to slow down to a trickle

[tiziano27]

How arrogant for Chris and Kevin to suggest that the Q10 isn't doing well because there is not a flood of new readers of CrackBerry.

I know dozens of BlackBerry users who have never even heard about CB, let alone visit the site.

I certainly would not expect executives with new Q10s to flood CB forums.

Think about it. They are users not cult followers.

When you search in google something related to BlackBerry, crackberry.com is well ranked in the search results. A bigger user base searching for information about the phone should produce an increase of traffic on this site.
They have a lot of analytic tools and data to detect change in usage, for example, percentage of new users in an article that explain a feature of the q10. Geographic data, in which countries there are more new users, which countries are accelerating the adoption or sales are dying.
Anyone interested in estimating BlackBerry sales would crave for the analytic data of crackberry.com.

[greyw0lf01]

The editorial article I think merely reflects what is now becoming overwhelming evidence that BB10 devices aren't moving as quickly as everyone thought.

CB has been flogging every possible angle from wait until the Z10 is released to wait until the Q10 is released to the now wait until the Z30 is released. If each successive device launch has slower sales than the prior (anecdotal evidence lack of insight from mgmt) & Chris has network traffic from his popular site, I think he's in as good a position as any to lend credence to the WSJ article. It gets tough carrying water for BBRY after a while.

Why shouldn't it be posted on the main page? When Chris U. attempts to refute other analyst negativity, it's right up there on the front page... turnabout is fair play.

Regardless of where the Wireless Zone is, a person running 16 stores knows when something is selling. I'm also going out on a limb to say that he's probably echoing a broader theme thoughout the company as I'm sure there are ongoing conversations about which products are moving and which aren't.

The whole hillbilly comment is insulting; how are they any different from someone in an emerging market country/region? Furthermore, a lot has changed in 5yrs...

[greyw0lf01]

not to mention it is Summer Vacation Time and so business is supposed to slow down to a trickle

Wonder how many devices they move daily on avg?

[Bilaal]

Also, Chris mentioned how one of the people that carried out the research does well in doing so, so you have to imagine Chris would take his word at least. Also, it's their job to be honest and keep an open mind, there clearly isn't anything otherwise that states Q10 sales are great and it's not like they haven't done their own little research (CrackBerry statistics) so you can't expect them to spin this as positive at all, unless CrackBerry statistics showed an increase of users etc.

Posted via CB10

[greyw0lf01]

TechWeek Europe readers back BBRY:

TechWeek Readers Back BlackBerry

[plasmid_boy]

Also, Chris mentioned how one of the people that carried out the research does well in doing so, so you have to imagine Chris would take his word at least. Also, it's their job to be honest and keep an open mind, there clearly isn't anything otherwise that states Q10 sales are great and it's not like they haven't done their own little research (CrackBerry statistics) so you can't expect them to spin this as positive at all, unless CrackBerry statistics showed an increase of users etc.

Posted via CB10

I actually like it that CB editorial is providing that view, because it keeps us informed. Just expecting a more complete analysis.
I apologize if the hillbilly comment offend anyone. I was quoting a directly from my neighbor to give a sense of the place 's rural environment. Nothing more.
I have lived in some of the biggest cities in China, Hong Kong, Canada, Vietnam, and the US, but I have also lived in some of the smaller cities. Not good or bad, but generally people in different places have different preferences.

Posted via CB10