[abouthsu]

Side topic, anyone know any good calculator out there available online to map strategies such as protective put or married calls etc? My apology if my question isn't clear. I tried googling for such a thing and can't seems to find any good ones out there.

[neteng1000]

+0.9 I'll take it

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

Green day = good day

Posted via CB10

[BB Fightclub]

Short intrest up from 146M to 153M on Nasdaq

[lcjr]

Short intrest up from 146M to 153M on Nasdaq

That's freaking incredible! OMG would that make for one heck of a short squeeze. Come on BB!!

[morganplus8]

[QUOTE=scalemaster34;9073153]Was not aware that BlackBerry had somehow gotten a patent on qwerty type keyboard devices. I taught Microsoft and Palm had devices long before BB..?

The "QWERTY" board design has been around for over 130 years now, its the design patents that makes a BlackBerry QWERTY board different than any other phone out there today. BlackBerry has consistently submitted design patent applications every year for decades now. No one to date have produced a successful product to compete with BB's phone. They could live on that design for many years to come.


I do agree that if they could scale the company down and find the customers to sell 15 Million BlackBerry's each year for a profit that it would be a reason to stay in the hardware business.

With out a doubt, BlackBerry could live off 15 to 20 million handset sales per year but I think these numbers would grow over time.

[*]The problem is are they one track to sell that many devices a year?
At present, they have a run rate of over 6 million phones a quarter and will end Fiscal 2013 at 24 million phones plus. They are launching a variety of phones that will assure them of demand in the range of 15 million to probably 22 million phones once the BB 10 take-up is complete. The churn on phones is 2-years, so they don't need a large base to maintain these sales numbers.

[*]Right now are they still making a nice profit on devices? How much are they having to discount them, and do the carries just accept all of the losses and keep coming back for more?
To my knowledge, they haven't discounted a phone yet. The carriers pay for the phone, they try to get "cost plus" out of them for a period of time and then use the phone to capture contracts (promotions are at the carrier's expense). The phone sells for $ 450 to carriers, that doesn't change at all. BlackBerry hasn't stated at any time to date that they are discounting their products. The phones are very profitable based upon cost, they aren't as profitable when you lump in excess advertising and promotion. When the BB 10 line finally gets penetration into the market, they won't have to spend nearly as many profitable dollars promoting the phone. We would have shown a very nice profit in Q1 this year if it were not for their 50% increase in marketing.

[*]If 30 Million (2 Year replacement cycle) is going to be the "user base" for the platform... how many Big Developers will be interested in supporting the Platform? Especially if the majority of these devices are locked down on a Gov or Corporate system.
You will see BlackBerry provide everything that Enterprise needs to be successful at 15 to 30 MM units per year. I have 100 apps, only one of my favs is missing and I have it on an Android product, soon, I'll have it on my Z10 phone when BB 10.2 comes out and I can make use of Jell Bean 4.2.2 I believe there are a very large number of BB fans who feel they aren't missing anything now. As for conversions from other phones, we have been hearing that for sometime now, many or crossing back to the key board. I have to believe all of those statements are in fact true as I dumped an iPhone to get here too.

[*]If developers continue to stay away, how many Consumers will buy a BlackBerry device if it isn't supported in the consumer world?
BlackBerry promotion and Jelly Bean 4.2.2. Too many apps to list.

[*]Is there a large enough market in the Corporate and Gov world where a high end (expensive) device with little to no support from developers would be needed?
I happen to think that security is important, the key board is important, having 99% of all of the apps you would ever want on a phone is important, we are there already. I think BBM cross platform and BB 10.2 are all that is needed to secure BlackBerry as a hardware threat.

I know security is a BIG thing, but so is productivity.. If Samsung comes along with an "option" for security (don't see the Gov going for it), but IF they did and they keep prices down and they had apps that were specialized different departments... could BB still ask a premium?
I personally think that Samsung would be crazy not to partner up with BB, or, consider buying them out. Samsung has been pushed around by Apple in far too many countries. They need to acquire enough patents to stop this madness now. Makes too much sense not to happen.

[cjcampbell]

What's interesting is that the SI is including the sharp rise up after the announcement. I would have thought that it was a lot of covering but it seems that more decided it was an opportunity to short more from the highs. We see low days as a buying opportunity, they see high days as a shorting opportunity. It will be interesting to see who is ultimately right.

[neteng1000]

That's freaking incredible! OMG would that make for one heck of a short squeeze. Come on BB!!

The shorts are adamant that BlackBerry will fail. LOL

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

The shorts are adamant that BlackBerry will fail. LOL

Posted via CB10

Yes, but we are adamant that Blackberry will succeed. lol

[Gesig Boek]

What's interesting is that the SI is including the sharp rise up after the announcement. I would have thought that it was a lot of covering but it seems that more decided it was an opportunity to short more from the highs. We see low days as a buying opportunity, they see high days as a shorting opportunity. It will be interesting to see who is ultimately right.

I wonder, given the silence, if people still believe BB had a buyer lined up when they made their For Sale announcement.

[Shanerredflag]

I wonder, given the silence, if people still believe BB had a buyer lined up when they made their For Sale announcement.

In reality these things take time, the only people calling for a quick sale "or else" are the doom and gloom agenda types. I have not seen a single pro BlackBerry analyst report stating "hurry".

I believe the initial bump following the announcement was just speculators.

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

I wonder, given the silence, if people still believe BB had a buyer lined up when they made their For Sale announcement.

AM I alone who did not see the panel "for sale" ?
I still believe this will turn out as joint venure(s) with a dedicated partition of the company, not based on software/hardware but instead on activities (individuals / Enterprises) and geographic location.
Is there anything we know making this speculation (yes it is) less plausible than a IMHO far too simplistic take over ?

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

I wonder, given the silence, if people still believe BB had a buyer lined up when they made their For Sale announcement.

watch and learn

[carbon fibre]

watch and learn

Director 1: Prem is leaving, our stock is going to get creamed! What are we going to do?
Director 2: I know, let's say we are pursuing "strategic options"
Director 1: That's just stupid, we said "all options are on the table" over a year ago. Got some big banks involved and everything.
Director 2: Watch and learn Grasshopper.

Sure enough , the market responded positively to the 'move', but the consequence of this if nothing comes of it and the ER arrives....
At the very least, it puts BBRY in a very weak position in strategic negotiations. BBRY has essentially promised the market a deal and anyone on other side of the table would know it.

Any chess players here? One move thinking at its finest.

[notfanboy]

Now I read this from Notafanboy, " Quite the opposite. I believe in evidence, peer reviewed studies, and the scientific method."

Too funny! I wrote my dissertation on the fallacy of Joseph Stiglitz (Noble Prize dude) and Eugene Fama's theory of EMH or EMT. They stated that the stock market is pure and predictable as in the Efficient Market Theory, ..... that it absorbs information and adjusts to that information with an honest change in underlying value of the investment. I shot holes in that theory via a peer reviewed, and published paper using Bollinger Bands and 10,000 news events plotted against those BB's in an empirical demonstration of change. There was no way in the world that today's market is anything like the market that existed back in their day. Today, with computers and the speed at which news is disseminated, you can no longer state that the market is fed the same information at the same time for everyone. And so it is more important than ever to use TA to help guide you in determining what others are doing. You have robbed yourself of a powerful tool for investment, one that trillions of dollars follow, and dismissed it while not becoming an "expert" in the field and truly testing a hypothesis of the theory.

Do yourself a favour and spend more time trying to understand TA, it will make you rich.

Hi morganplus8!,

I could make the case TA charts posted here hasn't made your anyone rich yet. I could also make the case that buying and holding index funds outperforms BBRY in practically all time horizons. I could make the case that if I were to buy BB right this moment, I'd do better than Prem, yourself, and most of the longs in this thread without the benefit of TA.

Would you care to share your peer reviewed paper? Does your paper prove that TA trading strategies can outperform the stock market indices after you have factored in transaction costs? Because there are other peer-reviewed papers that says otherwise. You might get some small statistically significant advantage if transaction costs are very low, or in certain specialty markets like currencies.

Can you also say that the charts you and others post in this thread have any resemblance the strategies described in your paper? Without even seeing your paper, I know that the answer is NO since your paper must necessarily look at a large number of aggregated stocks, not just a single one. TA on a large number of stocks can at least pretend to be scientific, TA on a single stock is just gambling.

On the day that BlackBerry announced that they were open to strategic initiatives, the stock went up 8%. Some poster, I forget their name, said that this was predicted by the Bollinger Bands and proclaimed that how could anyone still doubt TA? Let me ask you, was the rise in stock predicted by TA or was it coincidence? If you answered the former, what is the causal mechanism by which the Bollinger bands predicted BB would release the press release at that time? To draw any connection between the two is nothing but mysticism.

Four objections to TA as it is practiced on this thread.

Problem number one: If a prediction pans out then it is a flagged as a success. If a prediction doesn't then it is blamed on manipulation by the shorts. It is a theory that is impossible to refute. What happens when a prediction doesn't pan out? Not a problem. The next day a chartist simply starts over and draws new lines! Predictions also are given a lot of leeway. A chartist could say we are due for a "breakout" or a "key reversal". But for several days or weeks nothing significant happens. But eventually something will happen though. If the movement is in the right direction, the prediction is counted as a success. If not, the failed predictions are blamed on manipulation, swept under the rug and forgotten. Predictions are bound to be correct half the time, but human nature quickly forgets the misses and only remembers the hits.

Problem number two: BBRY is a volatile stock with lots of swings both up and down. Your TA based predictions are, almost without fail, always bullish. The chartists on this thread have never anticipated a major downward movement. I'm not keeping score but it would seem that you are wrong half the time.

Problem number three: Also I don't recall a single instance where the chartists here were able to predict a significant stock movement. I can recall any significant shift that was anticipated by the chartists. When the stock moved up or down by 2% or more, it was always because of an analyst downgrade or upgrade, earnings report, press release or some real news. Then the charts are simply redrawn to accomodate the actual news and the old charts are forgotten.

Problem number four: Let's say that charting techniques can really predicting stock price. If a proven method is found for doing this, then everyone else would take advantage of that method and the method becomes useless.

[lcjr]

Well, on a lighter note, don't forget to go over and register to win a Z30. You only have a few days left. Just leave a comment and you're registered.

Win a free BlackBerry Z30 from CrackBerry! | CrackBerry.com

[JLagoon]

8/26/2013; 14 million in volume; closed at $10.43. Short interest increased by 7 million up to 8/15/2013.

Bullish interpretation:
- Green uptrend line is still valid. It tested the line at 3 p.m. down to $10.34 (second low of the day, first low was $10.31), but bounced to close at $10.43.
- The SP created higher high and higher low.
- The candle is close to being an inverted hammer ($0.03 off), so not a reversal pattern to downtrend.
- The SP closed on the down cycle on the 30 minute chart, which leaves room to curve upward.
- The MACD and stoch. RSI on the daily chart starts to curve upward.

Bearish interpretation:
- No new news about buy out, partnership, upgrade, etc.

--

Based on the green uptrend line, the SP has a pretty steep climb to do. For the next several days, the bottom half of the previous trading day would be gone in the next trading day. Morgan said that the SP is setting up for another rally, and I anticipate this to happen as well. I think, the top blue line of the parallel channel (shown on 30 minute chart) would be the first line to break in the rally. As you can see, the range between the top blue line, and the green uptrend line is getting narrower. They will intersect on this Friday around noon.

Support on the uptrend line:
Tuesday ($10.36 - $10.45)
Wednesday ($10.45 - $10.55)

30 minute:


Daily:

[Shanerredflag]

Hi morganplus8!, I love your TA and when I grow up I want to be like you .

Nice copy n paste

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Hi morganplus8!,

I could make the case TA charts posted here hasn't made your anyone rich yet. I could also make the case that buying and holding index funds outperforms BBRY in practically all time horizons. I could make the case that if I were to buy BB right this moment, I'd do better than Prem, yourself, and most of the longs in this thread without the benefit of TA.

Would you care to share your peer reviewed paper? Does your paper prove that TA trading strategies can outperform the stock market indices after you have factored in transaction costs? Because there are other peer-reviewed papers that says otherwise. You might get some small statistically significant advantage if transaction costs are very low, or in certain specialty markets like currencies.

Can you also say that the charts you and others post in this thread have any resemblance the strategies described in your paper? Without even seeing your paper, I know that the answer is NO since your paper must necessarily look at a large number of aggregated stocks, not just a single one. TA on a large number of stocks can at least pretend to be scientific, TA on a single stock is just gambling.

On the day that BlackBerry announced that they were open to strategic initiatives, the stock went up 8%. Some poster, I forget their name, said that this was predicted by the Bollinger Bands and proclaimed that how could anyone still doubt TA? Let me ask you, was the rise in stock predicted by TA or was it coincidence? If you answered the former, what is the causal mechanism by which the Bollinger bands predicted BB would release the press release at that time? To draw any connection between the two is nothing but mysticism.

Four objections to TA as it is practiced on this thread.

Problem number one: If a prediction pans out then it is a flagged as a success. If a prediction doesn't then it is blamed on manipulation by the shorts. It is a theory that is impossible to refute. What happens when a prediction doesn't pan out? Not a problem. The next day a chartist simply starts over and draws new lines! Predictions also are given a lot of leeway. A chartist could say we are due for a "breakout" or a "key reversal". But for several days or weeks nothing significant happens. But eventually something will happen though. If the movement is in the right direction, the prediction is counted as a success. If not, the failed predictions are blamed on manipulation, swept under the rug and forgotten. Predictions are bound to be correct half the time, but human nature quickly forgets the misses and only remembers the hits.

Problem number two: BBRY is a volatile stock with lots of swings both up and down. Your TA based predictions are, almost without fail, always bullish. The chartists on this thread have never anticipated a major downward movement. I'm not keeping score but it would seem that you are wrong half the time.

Problem number three: Also I don't recall a single instance where the chartists here were able to predict a significant stock movement. I can recall any significant shift that was anticipated by the chartists. When the stock moved up or down by 2% or more, it was always because of an analyst downgrade or upgrade, earnings report, press release or some real news. Then the charts are simply redrawn to accomodate the actual news and the old charts are forgotten.

Problem number four: Let's say that charting techniques can really predicting stock price. If a proven method is found for doing this, then everyone else would take advantage of that method and the method becomes useless.

Hahaha, Mikhou loves your post!

[morganplus8]

I wonder, given the silence, if people still believe BB had a buyer lined up when they made their For Sale announcement.

StatCounter Global Stats - Trolls, Suspicious CB Members, Search Engine For Bashing BBRY Market Share

The above link tells us that only BBRY trolls are concerned or "wondering" about when a price war/sale will begin regarding BlackBerry. Perhaps it is these same trolls whom are often referred to in this link, who have the most to lose?

According to "Statcounter Global Stats - shareholders are content and looking forward to many surprising news events that will in turn elevate the stock on its own. After all, BlackBerry said it would look at all forms of business ventures, partnerships and the like, something in there about a possible sale too though.

[lcjr]

Check this out... BlackBerry Z30 hands on LEAKED - Information, specifications, video & more [HD] - YouTube

[morganplus8]

Hahaha, Mikhou loves your post!

And you wonder way the %($(^(^#$(#( is on ignore .................................

[Shanerredflag]

Check this out... BlackBerry Z30 hands on LEAKED - Information, specifications, video & more [HD] - YouTube

This shall be yours.


Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

This shall be yours.


Posted via CB10

Oh man I wish!! Here's the plan since I don't win anything... By the time the Z30 comes out for sale I'll have a house in Colorado Springs. That's a new zipcode and I'll need a new phone number. While they're getting me a new phone number, I'll find a way to make Verizon allow me to do an early upgrade from my Bold 9930, even if it costs me a few hundred $$. I WILL OWN THAT PHONE!! lol

[silversun10]

Hi morganplus8!,

I could make the case TA charts posted here hasn't made your anyone rich yet. I could also make the case that buying and holding index funds outperforms BBRY in practically all time horizons. I could make the case that if I were to buy BB right this moment, I'd do better than Prem, yourself, and most of the longs in this thread without the benefit of TA.

Would you care to share your peer reviewed paper? Does your paper prove that TA trading strategies can outperform the stock market indices after you have factored in transaction costs? Because there are other peer-reviewed papers that says otherwise. You might get some small statistically significant advantage if transaction costs are very low, or in certain specialty markets like currencies.

Can you also say that the charts you and others post in this thread have any resemblance the strategies described in your paper? Without even seeing your paper, I know that the answer is NO since your paper must necessarily look at a large number of aggregated stocks, not just a single one. TA on a large number of stocks can at least pretend to be scientific, TA on a single stock is just gambling.

On the day that BlackBerry announced that they were open to strategic initiatives, the stock went up 8%. Some poster, I forget their name, said that this was predicted by the Bollinger Bands and proclaimed that how could anyone still doubt TA? Let me ask you, was the rise in stock predicted by TA or was it coincidence? If you answered the former, what is the causal mechanism by which the Bollinger bands predicted BB would release the press release at that time? To draw any connection between the two is nothing but mysticism.

Four objections to TA as it is practiced on this thread.

Problem number one: If a prediction pans out then it is a flagged as a success. If a prediction doesn't then it is blamed on manipulation by the shorts. It is a theory that is impossible to refute. What happens when a prediction doesn't pan out? Not a problem. The next day a chartist simply starts over and draws new lines! Predictions also are given a lot of leeway. A chartist could say we are due for a "breakout" or a "key reversal". But for several days or weeks nothing significant happens. But eventually something will happen though. If the movement is in the right direction, the prediction is counted as a success. If not, the failed predictions are blamed on manipulation, swept under the rug and forgotten. Predictions are bound to be correct half the time, but human nature quickly forgets the misses and only remembers the hits.

Problem number two: BBRY is a volatile stock with lots of swings both up and down. Your TA based predictions are, almost without fail, always bullish. The chartists on this thread have never anticipated a major downward movement. I'm not keeping score but it would seem that you are wrong half the time.

Problem number three: Also I don't recall a single instance where the chartists here were able to predict a significant stock movement. I can recall any significant shift that was anticipated by the chartists. When the stock moved up or down by 2% or more, it was always because of an analyst downgrade or upgrade, earnings report, press release or some real news. Then the charts are simply redrawn to accomodate the actual news and the old charts are forgotten.

Problem number four: Let's say that charting techniques can really predicting stock price. If a proven method is found for doing this, then everyone else would take advantage of that method and the method becomes useless.

stock charts are a tool. if you don't know how to use it, well that is your problem.