[MoolahMitch]

Glad to see on the day I poke my head into the forum I get to see a Morgan post, good start to my week!

[leafs123]

anyone seen Nokia's new plan? They are going to drive out to the desert and build a massive bonfire out of hundreds of million dollars and then set fire to it.

Oh wait my mistake, they plan to release a surface RT tablet, you can understand my confusion.

Isn't that what they are doing with other products as well? 1012 camera phone, other WP8 devices being sold almost at cost.

Yet, they don't get the same beatdown as BBRY.

[bungaboy]

GREAT to have you back with us M+8!

FYI my ignore list has grown lately as well. Long at 36ish. LoL

Posted from my Z10 via C10

[georg22]

Thank you morganplus8.

You comment about the worth of BlackBerry's handset or hardware division makes totally sense to me.
I must admit, I was totally scared by the huge number of articles of last week (and it continues) telling the opposite.
The worthlessness of the division seemed to be certainty. I think I got brainwashed by the "media", lol.

From a developer perspective I think, when BB can maintain 10-20 millions BB10 user, then I am a happy camper. There is a huge demand for good apps and BB gives free advertising for BuiltForBB Apps, thats great. But for niche products the number of customers might be too small.

[BlackistheBerry]

Welcome back, Morgan.

Totally agree with you on the hardware part. I have always said that the hardware isn't going anywhere and couldn't understand how people are valuing it at zero, but never understood their logic, as their logic wasn't based on reason.
BlackBerry phones are here to stay, whether manufactured by x, y, or z!

With regard to the negativity and all the posts here about blackberry's doom....
I have always been wanting to see people let their money flow as freely as their tongue and their keyboard does. Many here believe, and are convinced that the SP is overvalued. That it's going to go down, a lot.
Can all these people PLEASE short the stock?
It will lend their argument some credibility I think.

If you think the SP will crash after the next ER, this is a VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY to make good money in 30 days.
Go ahead and short it!
And let's see some screen shots!

The longs here, have atleast invested, and are buying shares to prove that they are saying what they believe.
You may argue that they are saying what they believe because they are already invested and want to recover their funds... but that is not totally true either, coz we are still buying at these prices!

So, a friendly piece of advice to all the drive-by posters here.... if you really are convinced about what you are saying, and are convinced about the articles that the media is publishing, please have the courtesy to short the stock at these prices, and you will have my total, undivided attention ! ! !

[jfguay2]

Hello guys,

Was playing around with statcounter, and I am detecting a somehow trend upwards in the % of people browsing with Blackberry on their mobile in the States only.

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

I captured data from July 10 to today only, since Statcounter changed the way they captured all traffic for BB based on some servers in between Canada and the US. Between July 10th and July 17th, average % was at 3.64. Average for Aug. 16 to 22 is at 4.22%. Small but noticeable. I am going to be keeping a close eye on things and report back here, for what its worth.

Cheers,

JF

Ok I get it now, it apparently is not too reliable. Fair enough, but still fun for me to watch and report on .
Last four days average is now showing a 4.66% share, up from 3.64 for the week of July 10-17th. Yesterday alone was at 4.99%. It might not mean anything, but I like it just the same!

[Shanerredflag]

Glad your feeling better M8, love your post(s).

Posted via CB10

[abouthsu]

Welcome back Morgan, glad to start the Monday with your post. Happy to know your making good progress on your recovery.

[georg22]

If you think the SP will crash after the next ER...

Are you sure? After all the headlines of the last weeks, the consensus seems to be, that the next ER will be a desaster. It's the complete opposite of tha last ER where a some analysts expected a positive surprise. I would expect, that the SP will go down right BEFORE the ER because the desaster is expected and everybody tries to save profit. And it will go up AFTER the ER, because some investors continue to collect cheap shares because of the buyout rumors.
But I can be very wrong...just a thought...

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Thank you morganplus8.

You comment about the worth of BlackBerry's handset or hardware division makes totally sense to me.
I must admit, I was totally scared by the huge number of articles of last week (and it continues) telling the opposite.
The worthlessness of the division seemed to be certainty. I think I got brainwashed by the "media", lol.

From a developer perspective I think, when BB can maintain 10-20 millions BB10 user, then I am a happy camper. There is a huge demand for good apps and BB gives free advertising for BuiltForBB Apps, thats great. But for niche products the number of customers might be too small.

It's not about maintaining... You must grow in a business where the customer base is growing, or you end up becoming irrelevant.

And no 10-20 million is not enough to make BlackBerry a standard....When consumers go someplace and they offer an app that is only available for iOS and Android that tells those consumers that if they want a compatible device, they need to buy one that runs iOS or Android. 10-20 million users is not going to change that.... because with 70 Million users those developers didn't care - granted that could be because most of those users are outside of their market, and that BBOS was a difficult platform to build and SUPPORT (apps broke with every minor change RIM made).

[plasmid_boy]

And no 10-20 million is not enough to make BlackBerry a standard....When consumers go someplace and they offer an app that is only available for iOS and Android that tells those consumers that if they want a compatible device, they need to buy one that runs iOS or Android. 10-20 million users is not going to change that.... because with 70 Million users those developers didn't care - granted that could be because most of those users are outside of their market, and that BBOS was a difficult platform to build and SUPPORT (apps broke with every minor change RIM made).

So, if your company makes Apps for living, you would pass on 20 million potential customers?
If your company makes Apps for your customers (banks for example), you would let 20 million of your customers hang dry?

[Superfly_FR]

Glad to read you M+8 !
Agree 99% as usual

Guys, since we started this, we've learned what "stay calm" means, didn't we ?
The plan here is in a time scale the market doesn't even figure in their charts. This scale has a name for them: "fiction"... unless they have Prem's profile, skills and expertise: don't play the rabbit, target the turtle (this is an allusion to one of our famous poet Jean de la Fontaine) "It's worthless to run, you must start at the right moment" (or such).

The fireworks is not made of several items blowing separately. Instead, you have to fire all bombs in th proper tempo and finish with a combination that will drive your imagination to Nirvana.
OS, devices, back-end, infrastructure, PARTNERSHIPS...
Ooops, I'm doing it... again!

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Yell it : GREEN !



Posted via CB10

[BlackistheBerry]

Are you sure? After all the headlines of the last weeks, the consensus seems to be, that the next ER will be a desaster. It's the complete opposite of tha last ER where a some analysts expected a positive surprise. I would expect, that the SP will go down right BEFORE the ER because the desaster is expected and everybody tries to save profit. And it will go up AFTER the ER, because some investors continue to collect cheap shares because of the buyout rumors.
But I can be very wrong...just a thought...

I didn't say that it will rise, or drop.
All I am saying is, if you are convinced it will drop, short it and prove your conviction, and lend some credibility to your words.

You may be totally right about it dropping before, and rising after.

I currently have no plans of selling before the ER, unless something drastic happens, and makes me change my mind.

[m0de25]

Blackberry announced a 2k unit order for Q10 by U.S. Hispanic broadcaster "Univision"

Small order, but a nice one nonetheless amidst all of the doom+gloom.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/busines...sion-1.1427026

[w4rrior]

Have this odd feeling this week is going to be full of good press releases then a launch of XBBM followed by 10.2 which will get the stock price back up to $13-14 before ER. Expectations are low for ER but I think they moved more units this quarter than last which should keep the SP at that same mark.

Thor's goal is to create value in the company (phase 2), possibly announce some partnerships in Oct-Nov is the next step?

[Superfly_FR]

Have this odd feeling this week is going to be full of good press releases then a launch of XBBM followed by 10.2 which will get the stock price back up to $13-14 before ER. Expectations are low for ER but I think they moved more units this quarter than last which should keep the SP at that same mark.

Thor's goal is to create value in the company (phase 2), possibly announce some partnerships in Oct-Nov is the next step?

So I just asked "God" as the saints were silent...



Posted via CB10

[1stTry]

Have this odd feeling this week is going to be full of good press releases then a launch of XBBM followed by 10.2 which will get the stock price back up to $13-14 before ER. Expectations are low for ER but I think they moved more units this quarter than last which should keep the SP at that same mark.

Thor's goal is to create value in the company (phase 2), possibly announce some partnerships in Oct-Nov is the next step?

He gave us good news before the last ER as well ...

[bungaboy]

Univision's announcement of 2,000 new Q10s is certainly gonna drive StatsCounter wild!

[bungaboy]

Tag teams back in play today?

[Shanerredflag]

Two hours to go...all systems green

Posted via CB10

[leafs123]

WSJ on BB's patent portfolio.

The Numbers Behind BlackBerry’s Patent Goldmine - Corporate Intelligence - WSJ

"Alongside about $2.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, the patent portfolio, conservatively valued at $2.5 billion, could mean easy money for investors trying to take BlackBerry private. Scotiabank estimates the company’s cash and patents alone are worth $10.16 per share, and with stock currently trading at $10.53, you basically get a free company included on the side."

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Now for my rant, if I read a comment that suggests that BlackBerry's handset or hardware division is worth nothing, I stop reading the article, or message immediately. That kind of claim is too stupid to be true and not worth reading. The rule in business is that you keep any part of your business that generates revenue above hard costs. If BlackBerry can make phones for $ 250/unit and sell them for $ 450/unit, they will continue to produce them to cover other costs. The goal is to right size the product so that it flows to the EPS line. But anything above and beyond cost of manufacturing is a go. So if they produce 15 million handsets a year and make $ 200/unit toward other costs of doing business, the product only needs to be brought to scale to hit their profit margins. By producing for Enterprise (with some consumers wanting a "corporate device too") they will match their production with the cost of sales/marketing and make it profitable. The patent on qwerty guarantees they can make exclusive phones forever to that business sector. How many manufacturers in the world have exclusive rights to something that millions want to own? So getting back to my original numbers, $ 3 billion a year towards "other costs" is huge and BlackBerry can value that revenue (net of production costs) as a real asset. Anyone could buy the handset business and run it to scale and make money, and that's at only 15 million units per year. I value the handset business at $ 2.5 billion alone and not likely for sale either. I suspect they will sell the manufacturing rights and collect a royalty forever at some point but they will always be attached to the handset side of the business in the future. To say that $ 7.5 - $ 8.0 in revenue is not worth anything to a business is just plain stupid. There, that felt good! GL

Was not aware that BlackBerry had somehow gotten a patent on qwerty type keyboard devices. I taught Microsoft and Palm had devices long before BB..?

I do agree that if they could scale the company down and find the customers to sell 15 Million BlackBerry's each year for a profit that it would be a reason to stay in the hardware business.

• The problem is are they one track to sell that many devices a year?
• Right now are they still making a nice profit on devices? How much are they having to discount them, and do the carries just accept all of the losses and keep coming back for more?
• If 30 Million (2 Year replacement cycle) is going to be the "user base" for the platform... how many Big Developers will be interested in supporting the Platform? Especially if the majority of these devices are locked down on a Gov or Corporate system.
• If developers continue to stay away, how many Consumers will buy a BlackBerry device if it isn't supported in the consumer world?
• Is there a large enough market in the Corporate and Gov world where a high end (expensive) device with little to no support from developers would be needed? I know security is a BIG thing, but so is productivity.. If Samsung comes along with an "option" for security (don't see the Gov going for it), but IF they did and they keep prices down and they had apps that were specialized different departments... could BB still ask a premium?

The smartphone market is changing every day. And where today I can see BlackBerry having non consumer devices that they could charge a premium for both the device and the service. I also understand that is a very small market (with 3 and 4 year replacement cycles) and that while Apple and Google may not be interested in it today... a 3rd party like Samsung maybe. We have to hope that BB10 is making some headway with consumers and that both device sales and BES Service fees can out pace the losses of legacy users. Because I DON'T see the BlackBerry hardware unit being worth much IF the don't do MUCH better. I for one don't think I'd buy another device with no hope of better support from developers.

[JLagoon]

Univision Upgrades Entire Mobile Fleet with 2,000 BlackBerry Q10 Smartphones pr082613.htm

[lcjr]

What a day huh?!? Seems there are some positive articles being published as of late that could keep the heat off BB for a bit. Let's hope for more and some new news that can get the SP back up where it belongs. Thanks goes out to Morgan, JLagoon, and the others who keep us updated with charts and current/projected status of the SP. This really helps keep morale up!