[chrysaurora]

My preference is for BlackBerry to go private. It'd be good for their long-term and will kill short-interest. Once short-interests is killed, I think we'll see significant reduction in negatively biased reporting about BlackBerry. Such reporting hurts sale big time. Once such reporting stops, sales should pick-up.

[Bugmapper]

Worldwide figures from a secret source....

[silversun10]

After re-reading the press release I seriously question the intelligence of the board. Unless a deal has already been worked out they've essentially killed off whatever interest remains in their products.

Of course, knowing Blackberry the release could just have been an attempt to soften the news of Prem's departure from the board.

there was no problem with the NR, just look at the market reaction. they said they are going to leverage BB10 with outside help. nothing wrong with that. the only time this is a negative, is if they don't follow through. and so that is what we are waiting for. the market already approved of the NR by giving BB a big jump, so no reason to rewrite history here.

[plasmid_boy]

My preference is for BlackBerry to go private. It'd be good for their long-term and will kill short-interest. Once short-interests is killed, I think we'll see significant reduction in negatively biased reporting about BlackBerry. Such reporting hurts sale big time. Once such reporting stops, sales should pick-up.

It has been incredibly effective hasn't it.
Everyone that I talked to about BB informed me that it is desperately looking for someone to rescue them and that they are going to be bought out for cheap and scrap materials. None of them realized that they were just regurgitating opinions/interpretations and not facts.

[Gesig Boek]

Worldwide figures from a secret source....

Is your secret source perchance statcounter?
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

Actually given that now we know why statcounter's regional numbers were wonky, and we know it was not nefarious, the worldwide numbers (which eliminate regional wonkiness) gains new credibility.

The stats show over the last 33 weeks Blackberry OS increased its share of traffic from 3.39 to 3.72%, or around 10%.

At the same time Windows Phone increased from 1.01 to 1.61%, ie around 60%.

An increase is however an increase, and may indicate that increased web usage by BB10 devices is off-setting loss of BB7 handsets, but given that the handsets are very different when it comes to web browsing capability it is difficult to translate this into sales figures.

It is of note however that iOS actually lost 2 whole percent in share over the last 33 weeks, while Android gained 4%, likely absorbing Symbian's old market share. I think there can be a case made that long term iOS is in trouble.

[Supa_Fly1]

Well some more negative news but something of what Possibilities that BBRY can go with.

BlackBerry

I think THIS guy - Brian Blair - should be their CEO!

[Bugmapper]

29 minutes... not bad.

[Gesig Boek]

29 minutes... not bad.

I do have a life, you know

[cgk]

Well some more negative news but something of what Possibilities that BBRY can go with.

BlackBerry

I think THIS guy - Brian Blair - should be their CEO!

I need to get my eyes tested for a minute I thought you said Brian Blessed

[greggebhardt]

It's interesting that besides the Buyout rumor, BB has been EXTREMELY quite about sales outside North America. Honestly, I have no clue what to expect next ER, it's yet another gamble (although TH did state that they don't expect to be profitable). I hope we hear some sort of update however, it's just too quiet...

On another note:

BlackBerry Q5 Available August 24th in Philippines - N4BB

Force India IT chief full of praise for BlackBerry and BB10 - 06 Aug 2013 - Computing News

It was pretty quiet before the last ER, too! I do not think they are talking about any sales for a reason.

You have got to have "some" clue about the next ER. It will not be pretty. TH better have sold Blackberry by then

[kfh227]

It has been incredibly effective hasn't it.
Everyone that I talked to about BB informed me that it is desperately looking for someone to rescue them and that they are going to be bought out for cheap and scrap materials. None of them realized that they were just regurgitating opinions/interpretations and not facts.

People at work said that subscribers falling will be the deaths nail till I explained what it measures. A Lot of "oh"s that day.

Posted via CB10

[Kid Vibe]

It was pretty quiet before the last ER, too! I do not think they are talking about any sales for a reason.

You have got to have "some" clue about the next ER. It will not be pretty. TH better have sold Blackberry by then

I hope for a sell as well, unless TH comes out and expects to have profits and states that. But to be fair, even if he doesn't sell and continues to go through the strategy of growth and BES10, BBM etc... I can't see this stock taking a 20%+ hit again at ER... CAN IT?! That's my biggest fear.

[ColdFistOfTruth]

I agree with you that time is indeed a potential catalyst. I'll agree that solid fundamentals is the wrong descriptive, but Graham and Dodd are clear that there has to be SUBSTANCE under the investment that is markedly undervalued. Perhaps in that context we agree too. I don't agree on the original "50-50" assertion though- a degree of certainty is required, to the point that even if a value drops, you just buy more because if it was a good buy at a higher price, it's a BETTER buy at the newer lower price -- but this requires that degree of confidence in the valuation assessment.

Because valuing BBRY (beyond the emotional value here at CB :-D) is difficult right now, it's hard to argue it's currently a value play. That's all :-D

-CFOT

There is more than one way to invest in value investing terms. I said it's called cigar but investing. It is what Ben Graham did an what buffett did in his early partnerships years. I don't know how else to tell you that there is more than one way to approach things.

It has nothing to do with solid underlying fundamentals. There is no rule that says that. Catalysts can be used but others would say that time is the catalyst.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

I hope for a sell as well, unless TH comes out and expects to have profits and states that. But to be fair, even if he doesn't sell and continues to go through the strategy of growth and BES10, BBM etc... I can't see this stock taking a 20%+ hit again at ER... CAN IT?! That's my biggest fear.

If we don't hear anything before the ER, I will sell and wait to see what happens. I'm predicting another drop into the high 7s again immediately after the ER if we don't get any news. Heck, we can buy back in in the high 7s and wait to make a few bucks on a buyout or going private.

[Bilaal]

If we don't hear anything before the ER, I will sell and wait to see what happens. I'm predicting another drop into the high 7s again immediately after the ER if we don't get any news. Heck, we can buy back in in the high 7s and wait to make a few bucks on a buyout or going private.

This is exactly what I was thinking last night.

p.s. I'm a man of my words and I know I said that we'll be green today, but we haven't, so I now have egg all over my face. It's okay, tomorrow's green day will wash it right off.

Posted via CB10

[ibpluto]

If we don't hear anything before the ER, I will sell and wait to see what happens. I'm predicting another drop into the high 7s again immediately after the ER if we don't get any news. Heck, we can buy back in in the high 7s and wait to make a few bucks on a buyout or going private.

My thought process as well this time.

Swipe, swipe it good...via CB10 from my Z10

[Kid Vibe]

If we don't hear anything before the ER, I will sell and wait to see what happens. I'm predicting another drop into the high 7s again immediately after the ER if we don't get any news. Heck, we can buy back in in the high 7s and wait to make a few bucks on a buyout or going private.

Ive been thinking this too... But I think once I sell, I'll be out for good. Can't risk more of my savings. Hopefully there is something though that shoots this thing a few bucks more for good.

[acdne]

I hope for a sell as well, unless TH comes out and expects to have profits and states that. But to be fair, even if he doesn't sell and continues to go through the strategy of growth and BES10, BBM etc... I can't see this stock taking a 20%+ hit again at ER... CAN IT?! That's my biggest fear.

If we get no word of a sale and the results show a large quarterly loss, weak sales numbers, and on top of that serious cash burn and inventory write-offs then I'd expect a massive sell-off again (loyal investors finally giving up).

[sidhuk]

Just adding few more numbers to the ignore list.

[plasmid_boy]

Taking a break from my work, so another random thought.
Regarding the valuation of BB's patents, it is anybody's guess, but let's take a recent example as a gauge.
Kodak sold its patents to Apple and Google for about $500K each when it went bankrupted. These patents were related to image processing.
Let's assume that BB's patents (mostly related to mobile, about 3000 out of 5000) worth roughly the similar, then its patent portfolio would worth about $2.6 billion (5,236 patents x $500k). I would value BB's patents more than Kodak's, but would this be a fair ball-park estimate?

[Shanerredflag]

Don't forget they are no longer providing Subs figures...should be interesting. Here, have one of these:



Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

If we get no word of a sale and the results show a large quarterly loss, weak sales numbers, and on top of that serious cash burn and inventory write-offs then I'd expect a massive sell-off again (loyal investors finally giving up).

If Apple or Samsung do the same, they would expect a massive sell-off too. So what is your point?

[the_sleuth]

BBRY has not closed above its tangible book value of $11.20 since last ER. Even with the strategic alternatives announcement, SP is moving with the wind. Short sellers short it in the morning and buy back prior to market close.

If the street is pricing this stock below tangible book value after the for sale sign, then this does not bode well. I am thinking potential buyers will sit and wait for next ER on Sept. 27th. Afterwards the potential buyer can bargain from a position of strength. BB management will sell for cheaper price to salvage shareholder value.

[acdne]

If Apple or Samsung do the same, they would expect a massive sell-off too. So what is your point?

First off, Apple and Samsung reporting an earnings release that bad is a hypothetical situation, Blackberry reporting them is looking like a real possibility.

My point is even if the share price seems low now, we could very well head to a much lower valuation after the earnings release.

[lcjr]

Wow, never thought I'd make somebody's ignore list.... Hmmm, guess it's time to move on then.