[JLagoon]

Today is the eleventh day of uptrend. 15 million in volume, and the SP closed $0.03 above opening price at $10.32 to form a long legged doji. This candle can be a reversal indicator, and needs to be confirmed tomorrow.

Bullish interpretation:
The SP shows decreasing volume in a falling wedge formation. It either started to move out (the purple falling wedge lines) at 1 p.m. or is still in the falling wedge (the pink falling wedge lines). If you recall, I only had one falling wedge throughout last week. The top pink wedge line is the new line, which in the past wedges showed that it is a start for a new move. Falling wedge is, usually, bullish, but remember news trumps TA.

The compressing stoch. RSI on the 30 minute chart was resolved. Had the SP not opened with a gap down (probably because of the news from Jefferies), this would have gone up a good amount. On the weekly chart, everything stays bullish.

Bearish interpretation:
Indicators on the daily chart shows that MACD and stoch. RSI are cycling down. And the longer Blackberry goes without an update about going private, the more the SP will drift downward. Today, it broke $10.44 with gap down, and was not able to break $10.50, which was a good support line last Friday.

--

I heard that Jefferies maintained its buy rating, but lowered target price from $18 to $15, and Prem Watsa's Fairfax sold American Safety Reinsurance. Is Prem Watsa going to use the fund into BBRY purchase? Nevertheless, you could see that I draw a neon green line on the charts. This is Morgan's bottom uptrend channel line. You can see that it will intersect with all the lines of the falling wedge tomorrow 8/20/2013, and will go their separate ways the next day 8/21/2013. Combined with the long legged doji for today, this is quite a suspense. BB center line is at $9.58. Support prices for tomorrow based on the neon green line are $9.92 - $10.03. If the SP were to trade or close below this range tomorrow, then the next support is $9.79, BB center line, and $9.50.

30 minute:


Daily:

[dusdal]

A little home-grown bias.

New affordable BlackBerry Q5 is a winner | Globalnews.ca

[notfanboy]

Jlagoon, how can it be the eleventh day of uptrend when the stock has been down for four straight days?

[w4rrior]

A little home-grown bias.

New affordable BlackBerry Q5 is a winner | Globalnews.ca

Does the Q5 have NFC? The article says it does so I was just wondering..

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[silversun10]

Jlagoon, how can it be the eleventh day of uptrend when the stock has been down for four straight days?

an up trend is defined by higher highs and higher lows and therefore the trend qualifies as an UP Trend, no ifs or buts about it

[capper96]

Jlagoon, how can it be the eleventh day of uptrend when the stock has been down for four straight days?

See the green line? Its going up. If that support line was going down (like the orange one on the daily), then we are in a downtrend.

[Bacon Munchers]

... The only thing I care to see at this point is higher highs.

[take99]

Jlagoon, how can it be the eleventh day of uptrend when the stock has been down for four straight days?

Why would you even care, it's like tarot cards or reading tea leaves remember?

[JLagoon]

Jlagoon, how can it be the eleventh day of uptrend when the stock has been down for four straight days?

Hi notfanboy; I understand the disconnect. Maybe I should not mention uptrend or downtrend anymore, because some people have different timeline and expectations for the stock. So, I will do that for the future posts.

To answer your question, it can be still in an uptrend (again, depends on your timeline and expectations), because it has not developed a pattern that indicates a downtrend and / or has not crossed certain price threshold with volume.

The long answer: We were at bottom bottom bottom, after the massive sell off post June ER, on 7/29/2013. It also began an ascending triangle, which indicated a reversal pattern. It confirmed the pattern with a break out on 8/5/2013. And for the next 3 days, it retraced. On the fourth day 8/9/2013, we got the Reuters press release about BBRY open to going private. The stock gapped up. On the next trading day, Monday, 8/12/2013, Prem Watsa resigned from the board, and the stock gapped up again. The rally continued on 8/13/2013. And then the Icahn Apple news went out. The sell off occurred (with ~1.5 million in volume, I think), and this is the start of the falling wedge. Whether it is planned or a coincidence, only the market movers know.

All of these created this chart:


With this chart, we, at least, Morgan spotted it, could draw a bottom uptrend line (neon green), which started on 8/5/2013 or 8/2/2013. Combine this with the falling wedge pattern, volume trend, bollinger band, and other indicators, a bullish analysis suggests that this is a retracement, instead of a break down. A falling wedge pattern itself is a bullish pattern with lower low and lower high with decreasing volume. Tomorrow, we will have an intersection of the falling wedges and the bottom uptrend line. Volume trend has decreased since 8/13/2013. Bollinger band is getting narrower. It looks like the SP has to move significantly, soon, to either continue this uptrend or have a break down, which would send us back into a downtrend.

I hope, this helps to clarify the disconnect. I, personally, am still long, and did not sell any share during the month long downtrend in July. No one knows, when the SP can go above or below certain prices regardless of long or short. We can only guess with what we know, and have available to us.

--
If I were shorting this stock, then I would prepare to cover, after seeing the long legged doji candle today in this falling wedge formation.

[kevxn]

Totally agree 1GB of RAM costs 1000 USD today.

2 GB of RAM is not necessarily a bad thing. From software engineering point of view this is called sacrificing memory for the performance. BTW BB10 can support Android runtime, which is memory consuming. Again more memory consumption doesn't mean a bad software design.

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[bigbadben10]

A little home-grown bias.

New affordable BlackBerry Q5 is a winner | Globalnews.ca

My daughter absolutely loves her red Q5. She much prefers using a keyboard device than a full touch screen!

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[Bugmapper]

http://bizblog.blackberry.com/2013/0...ice-reduction/

Huge price cut.
Agressive move...?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[cjcampbell]

BlackBerry Announces Reduced Pricing for Enterprise Service Offerings �Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

Huge price cut.
Agressive move...?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

Whoa!! An 80% price cut??

[Kid Vibe]

BlackBerry Announces Reduced Pricing for Enterprise Service Offerings �Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

Huge price cut.
Agressive move...?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

Interesting... That is one massive $ cut.

[Bugmapper]

Whoa!! An 80% price cut??

... need to sell phones now so sacrifice bes income to gain phone sales.

Does anyone know if this under cuts most of competition or not ?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[cjcampbell]

... need to sell phones now so sacrifice bes income to gain phone sales.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

I suppose... I haven't looked it up but do you know what the cost is for GOOD or any others?

[Bugmapper]

I suppose... I haven't looked it up but do you know what the cost is for GOOD or any others?

No I wonder the same. $19 sounds almost like a lost leader. A service for cost.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[notfanboy]

... need to sell phones now so sacrifice bes income to gain phone sales.

Curiosity piqued. How does cheaper prices on BES convince more people to buy phones?

[cjcampbell]

No I wonder the same. $19 sounds almost like a lost leader. A service for cost.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

Seeing as it was somewhat thought that there was an 80% margin on their service, it does sound like giving it away for cost doesn't it.

[cjcampbell]

Curiosity piqued. How does cheaper prices on BES convince more people to buy phones?

They move more phones to the enterprise customer... hopefully.

[chrysaurora]

http://bizblog.blackberry.com/2013/0...ice-reduction/

Huge price cut.
Agressive move...?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

Good move. As far as I know, BlackBerry hasn't cut prices of CAL in years. $59/license/year was quite expensive, given that there is competition in this space now.


I think this will certainly help them retain existing customer base. Think from a CIO's point of view: let's spend $250K and migrate everyone from BES to (Good or MaaS or Mobile Iron etc). Savings from cheaper license fee (of competition) alone will be more than $250K spent on migrating from BES to a competitor.


But now - BES is much cheaper, and it's already installed and it manages ALL devices (BlackBerry, iOS and Android). So, business case for moving away from BES no longer holds.


While this means slightly lower revenue , it is certainly better than having NO revenue (should customers migrate to a competing MDM platform).

Also, remember that 70% - 80% cheaper license doesn't mean correspondingly lower revenue because previously licenses/CALs were only for BlackBerry devices. But now companies are going to be buying licenses for all devices - whether BlackBerry or iOS or Android. So, although revenue per unit will decrease, the total number of units (licenses) will increase.

So, yeah, while service revenue might face a small hit, it will probably drive more BlackBerry 10 device sales/upgrades as well. So, that should add to bottom line as well.

Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[Bugmapper]

I am surprised... but also encouraged by this move. Agressive moves, I like.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[take99]

I'll be honest, I'm struggling with this. Better to have a niche of high margin business in this space than playing this game. This is their last high margin revenue.

[Bugmapper]

I'll be honest, I'm struggling with this. Better to have a niche of high margin business in this space than playing this game. This is their last high margin revenue.

It is certainly a risky move, but if it ensures their future dominance in the world wide market, that is expanding rapidly, and maybe hinders some opponents, I can accept it. Walmart thrives where Saks barely survives?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[Bugmapper]

We know that BlackBerry cannot compete with android phones, but maybe they can dominate mdm.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!