[Superfly_FR]

Hi guys.
Just before my wife kills me (2:27 AM here) I wanted to wish everyone a nice weekend.
It's been a long week and we are granted for some relaxing times now!
I offer you a relaxing picture of my beloved Ocean, I could almost hear you yesterday,facing West!
So far so good, let's wait for the real news. The sooner the better !
But in the meantime, stay calm, bold and civil!
Cheers
SF




Posted via CB10, captured with my beloved Z10

[Superfly_FR]

according to GSC, millions of people are enjoying this thread....

At least 1.5 million views... not so bad for us clowns!

Posted via CB10

[BergerKing]

Mods, is open baiting, name calling, and mockery of other forum members kosher now?

Question becomes, is it good natured or is someone really getting ornery? Context is hard to read, and could swing either way. That's the only reason I'm leaning Febreze instead of Hammer right now. It's a judgement call, and I'm sure if one of these folks needed help, they'd be hollering my way.

Oh, BTW, I don't just come into a thread and start swinging the hammer. I read back pages to see where trouble gets started, and look at the patterns of posters. And I do it many, many times a day, in a number of threads This got my attention because things got out of whack. The members here have been the key to getting things back on track, I cannot take sole credit for changing the way things went. Each and every one that participates is responsible for how things go, and it works better that way. It does not serve the members or the site to have a productive thread tossed in the toilet, especially when it has merit.

[_dimi_]

Well, now what? I was expecting a rally up today, but sadly not the case. Where do we go from here? Is it time to think about throwing in the towel and consider shorting BB? After what I read about Chad not being able to raise the equivalent of $11.45 USA per share and the stock markets ready to crash I am thinking short. Investors are not going to load up on any stocks in light of where the DOW is going ... down. This is going to be a tough sell for BB, they should have done this a few years ago. This has nothing to do with BB or any other stock, it is about reality. All stocks are going to plummet, other than perhaps gold. Have a nice weekend everyone. BBQ'ing steak and fine wine tonight. Hoping for the best next week. Comments?

Stocks won't 'plummet' until September 2015 and gold might see new lows soon. Just my opinion. Have a good weekend

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[take99]

I really think cross platform bbm downloads will be big and cause a price pop hopefully before the september er. As well, any partnership or buyout rumour can cause an immediate 20 point gain, so at this point I would say wait is the name of the game.

[Dapper37]

I'm starting to think BlackBerry will release more then BBMX on ios and android soon after bbmx goes live! The Browser and Protect are ready I believe.

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[Shanerredflag]

Great reading today gentlemen and lady!

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[Bilaal]

Just remembered it's Saturday *facepalm* no riding the Rollercoaster today, folks!

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[Superfly_FR]

Night was short ... And dreams were strong. You know, kind of dreams that intertwine, where you open the door of the grocery and suddenly appear on the tee with your driver facing the Augusta's Amen Corner par five. And your hands are wet. You only dropped a single point on Withe dogwood (11), saved the par on golden Bell (12) and now you're facing it: the monster Azalea 510 yards par 5 (13). You know the path. You're 2 strokes behind the leader ... he scored 5.

"I need some Madagascar pepper and Himalaya pink salt"
The grocer is genius Arnold Palmer ... and while he lays down the pepper, I can ear the whistle of the driver and feel the hit in my grip. Can't see the ball. But impact is solid and release fluid: I know I hit it strong with that wedding curve draw.

"I won't choose pink salt, it's dry; may I suggest you Gu�rande instead ?"
Damm, he's right [info: no one would ever play the let to right option]. Let's fade this ball to the sky and let it land gently to the pin. Soft and wet.

And that tune on the radio ... JB's "Make it funky"


"What you gonna play now?
Bobby, I don't know but what's it ever I play
Its got to be funky!"

A whisper ... "Fly Float like a butterfly"; right behind me in the queue ... M. Ali ...

Open stance - slightly left footed - feet to line - club face to target - flow, don't hit ... groove that spin ... Here we go ... breath-one-blow-two-three ... I know that dance ...



... to the bridge ... oh man ... cracking bread ... ha-ha !

Yup, I had a funky dream ... and I'm groovay this morning !
Have a funky weekend too buddies !

P.S: do you think I will sank this 18 foot putt ?

[morlock_man]

Been away on a trip for a while relaxing.

Here's a pic of my pet dragon taking in the scenery.



I can't wait to see this quarter's numbers. From my experience with how big business gets things done, the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year are spent planning, researching and allocating funds for projects, with the last 2 spent in implementation, maximizing their budgets, tying up loose ends and reviewing performance.

Because of this trend in planning and deployment, I wouldn't expect to see the larger corporate BBRY purchases until the summer or fall months, so September and December 27th should be big days for BBRY where we see confirmation of the developing trend.

Heck, even my parents are buying the new devices and my mother has never owned a personal cellphone in her entire life.

[chrysaurora]

I'm starting to think BlackBerry will release more then BBMX on ios and android soon after bbmx goes live! The Browser and Protect are ready I believe.

Posted via CB10

We have been guilty of making such assumptions in the past. Thinking BlackBerry is going to release some surprise product or some cool accessory with BlackBerry 10.

Thinking Thorsten Heins is sandbagging (when he said he expects to breakeven next quarter).

We seem to drum up our own expectations and then get disappointed, underwhelmed later.

Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[notfanboy]

Btw Superfly_FR, it's "float like a butterfly"

[peto4]

Hi Guys, been following the board quite a bit, thought I throw in my 2c on the buyout.

I think we need to look at this Takeout from a balanced perspective

Re: Prem stepping down......

1) He could be thinking of taking it private for a low price to lower his cost basis , etc. He is a value investor, and is looking after the interest of Fairfax shareholders. So he might be thinking of something like $10 or $11 / share. So he is stepping down the board to to avoid the conflict of interest. Meanwhile, the board is undergoing a strategic review to see if there's nothing better than what Prem is offering.

2) There's already been others that's approached the board for a buy out that's higher than what Prem wants to pay himself but below his own $17 / share cost basis. I'm guessing something around $15/share. There's a conflict because if he is looking after Fairfax's interest, he'd say no as that's lower than what he has paid ($17). This could be another reason he is stepping down.

These two reasons alone suggest the buyout price will be around $10 - $15 range - I tend to think it's more in the low end than the high end.

My own take on BBRY valuation. They've already committed to about $500M in marketing spending this quarter. There will also be misc. costs. So I'd value their cash pile at $2B. Patents at $3B. Network at $1B. That's about $6B. Their AR of around $2.5B will probably cover their current liabilities. But they have also been committed to making certain number of devices - let's generously assume termination costs of about $500M so the fair value in September is probably $5.5B (conservatively).

The premium for buyout ranges from 30% to 50% so we could see $7B to $8.2B or about $13.5 - $16/ share range.

I think the message here is anyone buying BBRY will want to pay as little as possible to limit their investment risk.

[chrysaurora]

My own take on BBRY valuation. They've already committed to about $500M in marketing spending this quarter. There will also be misc. costs. So I'd value their cash pile at $2B. Patents at $3B. Network at $1B. That's about $6B.

I think you are missing a few things -

1. Cross platform BBM's value. If it spreads like wildfire (that is, if it gains 300M+ users in a quarter or two), that alone would be worth $6B+. And merger/acuqisition/privatization deals won't happen overnight. They are a quarter or two away. This gives, BlackBerry chance to increase its value by (quickly) installing BBM as a leader in messaging platform.
As a reference point - Skype was sold for $8.5B.

2. Cross platform bbm will also be a social network (bbm channels) and that'd carry some value too. Like Twitter, Instagram etc.

3. Value of BES 10 MDM. It's not apparent now because it's in free-trial mode right now. But in Sep-Dec, we'd start seeing some revenue from there and that'd add some value.

4. . Valuation of hardware business. Ought to be worth something.

5. Valuation of real estate (they own a lot of real estate) in lot of cities! This ought to be worth something.


Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[cgk]

I think you are missing a few things -

1. Cross platform BBM's value. If it spreads like wildfire (that is, if it gains 300M+ users in a quarter or two), that alone would be worth $6B+. And merger/acuqisition/privatization deals won't happen overnight. They are a quarter or two away. This gives, BlackBerry chance to increase its value by (quickly) installing BBM as a leader in messaging platform.
As a reference point - Skype was sold for $8.5B.

But... that is the reason why they will rush the sale because if it doesn't take off (and I'm doubtful - I think people are widely over-estimating it's appeal in 2013 when faced against the competition) it goes from potential to worthless - so oddly it's more than likely worth more to BBRY when people are guessing rather than when people know for sure.

[mrfreetruth]

I don't think bbm can do well. Look at Facebook how are they going to do well when everyone is on MySpace? Just because you are the best like bbm is doesn't mean anything. I am a BlackBerry hater and I want BlackBerry to fail.

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[peto4]

I think these are definitely things to consider and they'd be in the "30% to 50% premium" a potential buyer pays for...

BBM is valuable but from a buyer's perspective, it is not generating any revenue. So BB will be forced into giving that away...
BBM channel - I would also not assign any value there. I've also noticed that fewer people are posting on their BBM channel - even CrackBerry Kevin hasn't posted in like 2 weeks.

BES10 and hardware are valued in the $1B price tag I assigned.

I think you are missing a few things -

1. Cross platform BBM's value. If it spreads like wildfire (that is, if it gains 300M+ users in a quarter or two), that alone would be worth $6B+. And merger/acuqisition/privatization deals won't happen overnight. They are a quarter or two away. This gives, BlackBerry chance to increase its value by (quickly) installing BBM as a leader in messaging platform.
As a reference point - Skype was sold for $8.5B.

2. Cross platform bbm will also be a social network (bbm channels) and that'd carry some value too. Like Twitter, Instagram etc.

3. Value of BES 10 MDM. It's not apparent now because it's in free-trial mode right now. But in Sep-Dec, we'd start seeing some revenue from there and that'd add some value.

4. . Valuation of hardware business. Ought to be worth something.

5. Valuation of real estate (they own a lot of real estate) in lot of cities! This ought to be worth something.


Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[mrfreetruth]

A Lot of you BlackBerry fans / investors don't know what it is like to be useless employees and then have BlackBerry lay you off. I'm so bitter that I will spend all my unemployed free time to point out and twist facts to my biased and distorted point of view. I am angry and bitter and I post on CB.

Posted via CB10

[Gesig Boek]

A Lot of you BlackBerry fans / investors don't know what it is like to be useless employees and then have BlackBerry lay you off. I'm so bitter that I will spend all my unemployed free time to point out and twist facts to my biased and distorted point of view. I am angry and bitter and I post on CB.

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Mr FT, did BB finally lay of their head cheerleader?

[take99]

Cgk, I read that sammy will be preinstalling bbm on their phones in africa, that should be a pretty fair size number.

[bungaboy]

Try to imagine the miserable existence of a he/she/it who spends their time consumed with hate and posting their hate and trash on a site like CrackBerry fan site.

Ahh, but us supporters of BlackBerry could never know or appreciate what life is like at the bottom of a bird cage.

So BlackBerry supporters and investors try to show some compassion and understanding for theses poor folk..

[notfanboy]

Cgk, I read that sammy will be preinstalling bbm on their phones in africa, that should be a pretty fair size number.

I'll make a prediction. At several points during within the next 6-12 months, we will be getting clear indications that BB is losing ground to Android in Africa. No, that's not really the prediction, this one is: We will hear from the same people who once Samsung's move to preinstall BBM, but on that future date they will be blaming the market share loss to precisely this move.

[cgk]

Cgk, I read that sammy will be preinstalling bbm on their phones in africa, that should be a pretty fair size number.

Right but where's the revenue?

Having said that, as a stock-holder it would be great as BBM takes off because I see the future as being a platform agnostic services company.

BTW - has everyone seen the "Armchair CEO" forum? LOL 8-)

[bungaboy]

Man this is a nice picture.

[cgk]

Where is that from?