[silversun10]

Just to add my 2 cents, he did call a break out the last week of July due to the BB's tightening. On the Monday, 5th, it did indeed jump and handsomely. It pressed the BB's for 3 days, pulled back to regroup and again, gapped up on the Friday to press again. This week is totally due to news from Monday morning but the call was correct no matter how you look at it.

the chart never causes the move, there will always be some news to drive the move, but the chart will tell you the stock is poised to make a move.

[cjcampbell]

the chart never causes the move, there will always be some news to drive the move, but the chart will tell you the stock is poised to make a move.

Never said it did. Just gives indicators of what could happen and as indicators add up, a probability as well.

[silversun10]

TA called the press release? They are unrelated in this case. I really don't want to argue, but if you seriously think the bollinger bands produced a press release or that the stock was going to move like it did without the press release, then I think should agree to disagree. It was fortuitous timing at best. I think even M+8 himself has said and acknowledged that News trumps TA, but I will leave that to him.

As for my understanding and use of TA, I won't battle you or your condescending post there either, other than to say that I have been involved in the markets in various capacities for over 25 years. I can be dense but don't consider myself stupid.

when and where did i say the TA called the NR? Never did. So, you just enjoy your opinion. Good Luck with that.

[MoolahMitch]

Thank you M+8 I love how you are able to put a bunch on thoughts together and make it flow. Totally agree. Can you imagine if the media printed part of this post ?

I have missed these Morgan updates

[kfh227]

M+8. What does Prem leaving the board suggests to you? Maybe this allows any potential suitor to have candid discussions with the board without .... (I don't get it)

Could be as simple as his large holding could create controversy if the BoD accepts or rejects a certain bid.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

While I appreciate M+8's great charts and analysis, I say the Bollinger bands and TA did nothing to predict this particular move and will do nothing to control it if there is more important news. Without the news, the stock would not be where it is. News of this type trumps TA in my book. If we amble along then yes, I would look at TA for guidance and at $13.50 or so there is some old support that would seem to be resistance now, but NEWS will move this stock. Just my 2 cents, no offense meant to anyone.

OMGitworks!!

In all due respect, you probably aren't an expert in TA, and yet you dismissed it as being useful to anyone today; do you see where this logic goes? Imagine if the world operated this way, decisions about healthcare, engineering, war, etc., made by those who have no background in those respective areas of expertise, oh wait, we have politicians don't we? Let's try a different angle here.

Real Estate, you buy it and it goes up and you retire on the investment, until it doesn't work. So why do so many preach that you buy land as they aren't making it any more? It's because it works as long as there is a strong following to back it up. And so it works "most of the time" because it is true, most of the time. There are countless real estate owners who would rather rent today because they got burned in the past. That doesn't mean that buying land is a bad thing.

TA is very powerful if you understand it well. We give a cursory version of TA on this thread so that we don't isolate all of the readers on this board. If we gave a highly technical report, no one would understand what the heck we are talking about. Then there are the heavy hitting followers, like in real estate, trillions of dollars ride on TA analysis every day and you have to respect that. Why do you think I got the turn in BlackBerry right on Wednesday, two weeks ago, while the stock was making a new recent low? I didn't know that Prem was going to leave the board, rather I looked at the dynamics of the stock and knew I had seen this trading exhaustion before. I told the board we were about to see a big rally in the days ahead. The computers relaying on TA saw that too, I just provided "their trillion dollar" information before anyone else could call the turn. That's useful information I would think.

Now I read this from Notafanboy, " Quite the opposite. I believe in evidence, peer reviewed studies, and the scientific method."

Too funny! I wrote my dissertation on the fallacy of Joseph Stiglitz (Noble Prize dude) and Eugene Fama's theory of EMH or EMT. They stated that the stock market is pure and predictable as in the Efficient Market Theory, ..... that it absorbs information and adjusts to that information with an honest change in underlying value of the investment. I shot holes in that theory via a peer reviewed, and published paper using Bollinger Bands and 10,000 news events plotted against those BB's in an empirical demonstration of change. There was no way in the world that today's market is anything like the market that existed back in their day. Today, with computers and the speed at which news is disseminated, you can no longer state that the market is fed the same information at the same time for everyone. And so it is more important than ever to use TA to help guide you in determining what others are doing. You have robbed yourself of a powerful tool for investment, one that trillions of dollars follow, and dismissed it while not becoming an "expert" in the field and truly testing a hypothesis of the theory.

Do yourself a favour and spend more time trying to understand TA, it will make you rich.

[OMGitworks]

M+8, I was not dismissing TA at all and I am no expert. I was simply taking issue with the fact that THIS time TA called THIS move as was posted. I am attributing it to news, not TA, but that does not mean I dismiss TA or that I think TA is not useful.

I well aware that physical server location and fractions of a second can make a huge amount of $$ these days.

[Bacon Munchers]

I hope that's true. But I think it's less likely. I think a lot of people have been waiting for :

1. Prices to go down or cheaper BBs. Q5 just launched, and prices have only started going down recently

2. More apps and some legacy features. I think 10.2 (coinciding with launch of Z30) is when most important legacy features get moved to BB and (thanks to Android 4.2 runtime) apps become a non-issue. BB World app store has already become very good; and with 10.2, the app-gap will become only narrower.

3. Companies have been testing BES 10 and BB WorkSpace app, which was launched only end-of-June/early July. And with free trial of like 2-3 months. So, I think most companies would start buying BB 10 (and BB WorkSpace app) only after free trial is over. So, bulk of those orders will probably show up in Sep-Dec quarter; not before.

So, given this, I don't think BB 10 are selling any more than last quarter. I think BB 10 sales will pick-up in Sep-Dec quarter though.

Well said.

[morganplus8]

M+8, I was not dismissing TA at all and I am no expert. I was simply taking issue with the fact that THIS time TA called THIS move as was posted. I am attributing it to news, not TA, but that does not mean I dismiss TA or that I think TA is not useful.

Then you have my apologizes here, I'm reading something different into your messages. You might not know that we look at 100's of indicators but for the sake of the board, we mention only a couple of them so as not to drive many of you into a coma!! I like to get people to look at 3 or 4 key indicators like simple moving averages, so that they can create the same chart pattern and analysis as everyone else, like Abigail and her 11-year chart, that way, if you look at AAPL or a gold stock, you can assess it just like we do with BBRY. When you are ready, you'll take this study to a higher level. I personally like what JLagoon does for the board, he spends his time on the 3-minute chart and so on, I don't do that because he is so good at it now.

I don't want to come off bragging about my lucky calls here, but I do want you to know that calls have been made that reflect future events based upon TA and the evidence is in this thread. We have CB members come and go all the time, proclaiming they are short until they are broke. Guys like JLagoon and myself are here long after they move on.

My point is that even a guy like me who holds several degrees and can rip a financial statement a part like nobody's business, rely on charts too. I strongly suggest you give it a try and keep an open mind as trillions of dollars are following the trends today. I don't care what it takes to make money in this market, I'll follow anything that works until it doesn't. Good luck!

[take99]

Waiting for notafanboy's intellectual rebuttal after the smackdown....

[cgk]

What smackdown? It's just an appeal to authority - at this stage people either believe in technical analysis or don't and nothing new from either side had been said in months.

If someone wants to settle it - go back and map the TA charts against reality and tell us what you find.

[z10fido]

Technicals just tell you a wave is coming. You can't surf on that wave. Unless you heed the call and wait in the water. You still have to know how to surf to catch that wave. To an amateur it's meaningless.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

an appeal to authority? more like an appeal to statistical analysis and probabilities derived from that analysis, which drives millions of computer driven trades a day. How is this like reading tarot cards or tea leaves?? It was a smackdown, an intellectual response to a non-intellectual rant. Please provide us with your insight as to why you 'believe' it doesn't work, then we can weigh your opinion vs. what Morgan laid out.

What smackdown? It's just an appeal to authority - at this stage people either believe in technical analysis or don't and nothing new from either side had been said in months.

If someone wants to settle it - go back and map the TA charts against reality and tell us what you find.

[cgk]

an appeal to authority? more like an appeal to statistical analysis and probabilities derived from that analysis, which drives millions of computer driven trades a day. How is this like reading tarot cards or tea leaves?? It was a smackdown, an intellectual response to a non-intellectual rant. Please provide us with your insight as to why you 'believe' it doesn't work, then we can weigh your opinion vs. what Morgan laid out.

Why? What is the point? You believe, I don't, I don't actually care what weight you give to my view - my point was that within the context of this thread it is a dead issue neither camp is going to shift.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

[leafs123]

Everyone calm down!!

[lcjr]

Kinda sorta. lol

[take99]

because I 'believe' based on my own knowledge of statistics and the way Morgan has explained how TA fits in to that. This thread is a huge learning experience for me, so I would like to hear other's reasons why they don't think what Morgan is saying about TA is true from a mathematical perspective, other than stupid comments that it is like 'reading tea leaves' with no argument to back it up. So far, only Morgan has placed credible, well thought out arguments for why it works, I haven't seen anything intellectual rebutting that, but would be open to reading those types of opinions if well thought out. I just thought you might have a good reason for not 'believing' in TA and that it would be good to share with the rest of us.

Why? What is the point? You believe, I don't, I don't actually care what weight you give to my view - my point was that within the context of this thread it is a dead issue neither camp is going to shift.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

[Reed Richards]

Here is how I see TA, please correct me if I'm off-track:

Proponents use TA on a stock to try to match it to historical patterns, in an attempt to figure out what the stock will do in a certain timeframe. If a stock is moving in a pattern, and you know that 90% of previous stocks in that pattern went up, then you probably should expect it to go up, absent a compelling reason. TA users know that market makers use algorithms to trade, and by analyzing previous cases, TA might be able to figure out (to some degree) what those algorithms are based on, and trade accordingly.

I think TA opponents have two main objections. One, they'd say, "look, if it were that easy to figure out patterns and formations, everyone would do it and make money... and that's clearly not possible for everyone to be a winner". I'd say that's very true, but that's the case with any sort of analysis, isn't it? If your fundamental analysis is better than everyone else's, you'll do better... until people catch up with you. Same with TA... if you've "cracked the code", so to speak, it'll work... until everyone else figures it out and you need to build a better model. I think Morgan got to the root of the issue when he said he would follow anything that worked until it doesn't.

The other reason, I think, to doubt TA is the effect of real world news. Sure, BlackBerry could be trading in a bullish pattern, but that is meaningless if the competition is about to launch better products, or BlackBerry is about to sink money into a losing new phone. I can absolutely see the objection to TA here, and I think it's sound. And my take is that TA users know this - hard news trumps the patterns. I think TA proponents might say, "yes, fundamentals matter, and news matters, but how likely is it for someone to truly grasp the fundamentals AND the relevant inside news of a particular company AND its competitors? So why not add another tool to your arsenal?".

I don't think proponents of TA are saying that companies are fated to perform a certain way based on their trading history. I think they are saying that, given a large body of evidence, companies in these scenarios tend to trade this way. There might be knowable or unknowable reasons why a company will buck that trend, sure, but TA gives you a place to start.

Thanks to everyone for the discussion on this board, I'm learning a lot about both fundamental and technical analysis as I go.

[JLagoon]

An intraday update; I think, we have a falling wedge. It is, usually, bullish. It needs to go above $11.07 - $10.89, until 4 p.m. today.

[Superfly_FR]

My bets are on Prem Watsa, he appears the most determined, as for the others they seem like their arms need twisting to buy Blackberry.

Let's have both; cap raise and joint-venture. #salivating

Posted via CB10

[Bugmapper]

Former Blackberry Senior Vice President Mike Galbraith has joined Kitchener-Waterloo's Thalmic Labs, creators of the revolutionary MYO armband, as CFO.

In addition, David Perston, former Director of Operations, Senior Director of Global Technology and Services, and Senior Director of New Product Introduction Outsourcing at Blackberry, joins the team as Vice President of Manufacturing.

Thalmic Labs Strengthens Team With Addition of Two BlackBerry Execs - Techvibes.com

[mrfreetruth]

Looking to buy some shares on the dip. [email protected] not filled and 100 @ 10.75 and [email protected]. Might as well buy some cheap commons

Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

I don't think M+8's stock picks are "lucky calls" at all, not with the amount of due dilligence, experience and thought that go into them. They may be "educated guesses" but that is a far cry from a lucky guess. I know some guys who used to write algos for trading. Just like TA (and a lot of it was TA based) what they told me sometimes made my head spin, but what they based it on was solid research, a sound theory and lots of data. Anything that helps tip the scales in your favor in this game is useful! You aren't going to be correct anywhere near 100% of the time. If you can be correct 60% of the time you are a genius.

Enough from me on this, I'll be happy to take it all up again at the $100 party.

[morganplus8]

because I 'believe' based on my own knowledge of statistics and the way Morgan has explained how TA fits in to that. This thread is a huge learning experience for me, so I would like to hear other's reasons why they don't think what Morgan is saying about TA is true from a mathematical perspective, other than stupid comments that it is like 'reading tea leaves' with no argument to back it up. So far, only Morgan has placed credible, well thought out arguments for why it works, I haven't seen anything intellectual rebutting that, but would be open to reading those types of opinions if well thought out. I just thought you might have a good reason for not 'believing' in TA and that it would be good to share with the rest of us.

take99!!

Love your posts and read them all the time. I had no idea you were fighting this battle as I have that guy on ignore. It's nothing to do with his thoughts on TA, rather it is the sum of all of his posts. So please stick to your great work here and relax! I grow bored with messages that are largely unsupported by any facts. Good luck and let's get BBRY back over it's 50-dma this week.

[Gesig Boek]

I assume the exuberance of yesterday and Monday is now significantly tempered. The posts from yesterday, with its "troll-baiting" and gloating showed many members of this thread are as bad winners as they are losers.

It seems to me that much of the joy was about "the shorts" losing money vs actually making money, but I think it is interesting how success has been redefined recently.

1. Its no longer supporting Blackberry, but getting your investment back.
2. Its no longer about making money but just breaking even.
3. Its no longer about the $100 party but rather the $20 party.

I think the vast majority of skeptics who post here are not shorts, but just skeptics, and it is important to note that they have also been right the vast majority of the time. Blackberry putting themselves up for sale is exactly what they predicted, or at least the board and investors demanding a return on their investment, and that $3 billion treasure chest did not prove protective at all.

In short, even when the share price is rising the longs should still pay attention to the negative point of view, because when it comes to Blackberry that has proven to be the more reliable one.