[the_sleuth]

If you want to speculate, use leverage. There is a floor to this stock now.

So one could sell $10 PUT DEC 2013 for around $1.35. With the proceeds purchase $11 CALL MAR 2014 for around $1.83. So your exposure is on $0.48 per call not $10.78 if share bought today. You make money if BBRY is purchased above $11.48 and your downside risk is only $0.48 if it is purchased below $11.48. (excluding commissions of course)

You are just here to stir up crap. Read the thread title please.

UPDATE:
After reading many of your other posts in several threads my suspicions have been confirmed.

Welcome #30 to my list.

[silversun10]

If you want to speculate, use leverage. There is a floor to this stock now.

So one could sell $10 PUT DEC 2013 for around $1.35. With the proceeds purchase $11 CALL MAR 2014 for around $1.83. So your exposure is on $0.48 per call not $10.78 if share bought today. You make money if BBRY is purchased above $11.48 and your downside risk is only $0.48 if it is purchased below $11.48. (excluding commissions of course)

not sure if i would want to touch a tech stock though

[fedakd]

Well this certainly has been a great way to start the week! Prem stepped down and likely began loading semi trucks with shares today. Shorts got a first-hand look at what it would be like waking up to an offer on the table, and we even got our fair share of trolls anti-BlackBerry fans, working in overdrive today on the board. Wish I could offer some educated and speculative insight here, but M+8 has hit in on the head as YangFui alluded to.

I'm anxious to see how this all plays out. Anxious to see how BBM X-platform goes as its rollout may in fact be during this entire strategic exploration process. That will certainly add fuel to the fire.

Oh, and before I forget....Mikhou, I'm wondering if you added to your short position today. Did you short the pops?

Cheers all & looking forward to the coming days!

[the_sleuth]

Stock market is one giant casino. While I was reviewing the options tables, I noticed deep in the money calls for BBRY are not moving up that much in price. As an example, $5 CALL MARCH 2014 can be bought for $6.00 while share price closed at $10.78 today. This tells me the stock pros are still very pessimistic on BBRY and don't believe a deal will get done.

not sure if i would want to touch a tech stock though

[john1110]

best synergic buyers are ...

Facebook, Cisco, IBM

if bought by one of the above, it will easily booster up $20 range for sure!
Forget about samsung or lenovo. Canadian Gov will not allow it.

[fedakd]

Being pessimistic every single time works until it doesn't. Just an FYI.

Stock market is one giant casino. While I was reviewing the options tables, I noticed deep in the money calls for BBRY are not moving up that much in price. As an example, $5 CALL MARCH 2014 can be bought for $6.00 while share price closed at $10.78 today. This tells me the stock pros are still very pessimistic on BBRY and don't believe a deal will get done.

[Bugmapper]

Berate me if you want. I am entitled to my opinion. I have been following this forum with amusement as most speculators here have lost money on BBRY. Here's another view of BBRY:

BNN Video Player

Welcome to my list...

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[_dimi_]

Personally I can't see BlackBerry being privatised.

How would they improve the facets they currently lack? They have solid products with lots of potential, but consensus has always been that BlackBerry lacks effective marketing. They have the cash to invest in advertising, but could burn through it in no time if demand doesn't pick up at the same time. A big risk if you ask me. BlackBerry as a private company would face the same or even more challenges than it is facing today. Would they get the same media coverage? Admittedly, media coverage has been terrible, but being talked about is still better than not at all. Especially when you're fighting against Samsung, Apple for the consumer market.

I'm not sure if Prem would be willing to take this risk either. He's a fund manager, so BlackBerry is just one (big) part of his portfolio. I believe his investment strategy is too different from Carl Icahns. In my opinion he's holding out for an offer that will provide a good return to his clients.

BlackBerry is having serious perception issues. Not only is it affecting customers, I believe it is also affecting their ability to attract and retain talent. A partnership, investment, merger or buy-out by a serious player would change perception overnight.

I believe this is the likely scenario, and my gut feeling says:

1. Amazon
2. Microsoft
3. IBM
4. Lenovo (in combination with IBM for the server side)

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

Stock market is one giant casino. While I was reviewing the options tables, I noticed deep in the money calls for BBRY are not moving up that much in price. As an example, $5 CALL MARCH 2014 can be bought for $6.00 while share price closed at $10.78 today. This tells me the stock pros are still very pessimistic on BBRY and don't believe a deal will get done.

perhaps stay away from tech stocks then, you wouldn't want to make money on a stock that is getting taken under, watch it man

[the_sleuth]

Be careful, offering your opinion here. It's a though crowd. I like your Amazon pick. There are synergies between Amazon S3, BB's NOC, security, and BES10. Also Bezos' team would market BB10 better.

Personally I can't see BlackBerry being privatised.

How would they improve the facets they currently lack? They have solid products with lots of potential, but consensus has always been that BlackBerry lacks effective marketing. They have the cash to invest in advertising, but could burn through it in no time if demand doesn't pick up at the same time. A big risk if you ask me. BlackBerry as a private company would face the same or even more challenges than it is facing today. Would they get the same media coverage? Admittedly, media coverage has been terrible, but being talked about is still better than not at all. Especially when you're fighting against Samsung, Apple for the consumer market.

I'm not sure if Prem would be willing to take this risk either. He's a fund manager, so BlackBerry is just one (big) part of his portfolio. I believe his investment strategy is too different from Carl Icahns. In my opinion he's holding out for an offer that will provide a good return to his clients.

BlackBerry is having serious perception issues. Not only is it affecting customers, I believe it is also affecting their ability to attract and retain talent. A partnership, investment, merger or buy-out by a serious player would change perception overnight.

I believe this is the likely scenario, and my gut feeling says:

1. Amazon
2. Microsoft
3. IBM
4. Lenovo (in combination with IBM for the server side)

Posted via CB10

[the_sleuth]

There's no guarantee of a deal. We're all just speculating scenarios. With this morning's announcement, a deal must be done ASAP to remove a cloud of uncertainty for potential enterprise customers and individual customers. This cannot drag out or sales could get worse before getting better.

My concern if the process drags out, then Prem Watsa does an about face and walks away. That's the worst-case scenario.

Another investor no one is considering is Indian investor like Tata or Singapore Sovereign Investment Fund. BlackBerry is very popular in Asian countries.

perhaps stay away from tech stocks then, you wouldn't want to make money on a stock that is getting taken under, watch it man

[silversun10]

There's no guarantee of a deal. We're all just speculating scenarios. With this morning's announcement, a deal must be done ASAP to remove a cloud of uncertainty for potential enterprise customers and individual customers. This cannot drag out or sales could get worse before getting better.

My concern if the process drags out, then Prem Watsa does an about face and walks away. That's the worst-case scenario.

Another investor no one is considering is Indian investor like Tata or Singapore Sovereign Investment Fund. BlackBerry is very popular in Asian countries.

yeah, you are right, BB is too risky, perhaps we should all go follow another stock, BB is just too risky, you know it is a tech stock and they went Bust after the Dot.Com Bull market. So, probably we missed the boat by about 15 years.

[the_sleuth]

Nice sarcasm. Here's another view of possible share price offering ($12 to $15):

Given the lack of traction for its new smartphones, it's 'Plan B' time for BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY), comments Nomura Securities Stuart Jeffrey amid news the company is exploring strategic alternatives.

Jeffery noted a few points from this morning's statement from the company:

1. The wording that a transaction may not happen suggests to them the focus in on selling the company or taking it private.

2. While it may have been inferred before, the company previously did not state that a sale was part of its strategic consideration.

3. "Other possible transactions" likely refers to the potential for going private.

4. It seems that management retains its focus on sustaining its own operating system / platform and is not yet willing to transition to a hardware-free solution.

On a sale, Jeffrey sees few buyers for the company in its current form. "Despite the fall in BlackBerry’s market value, we are yet to see anyone make a public bid for the company," the analyst said. "It may be that BlackBerry was unwilling to give potential bidders access to its R&D labs. This block would make it very hard for any bidders to ascertain whether or not BlackBerry apps can be successfully transitioned (ported) to other operating systems. A more open approach by management may now improve visibility for potential bidders."

Stuart added, "However, we still struggle to see who might buy BlackBerry given the ongoing turnaround challenges. Any bidder would likely have to be proficient in company turnarounds to generate value from a BlackBerry acquisition. Few companies in tech seem to have that skill set, with most focused on technology acquisitions only.

The analyst said a "going private" deal makes a lot of sense. "In our view, the best possible long-term outcome for BlackBerry is to cease hardware production for the consumer market and to adapt all its applications to work on iOS and Android, and so become an almost pure service / application provider of corporate cloud applications. We believe that this would be a difficult and painful transition and one that might be best suited to a company that is private rather than publicly listed."

On a takeout price, the firm said if management can restructure without using more than $1 billion of its $3.1 billion in cash, then a possible valuation of $6.3-7.7bn seems feasible – equivalent to $12-15 per share. On a straight price-to-sales basis, this would value BlackBerry at $5.30- $10.60 per share. Net cash per share is $5.80, and including all of this increases the valuation range to $11.10 to $16.60. Given management's current strategy, which seems willing to utilize its cash to drive the business, the firm said doubt that investors will factor in much of this cash. Including $2 of net cash per share drives a valuation range of $7.30 to $12.60.

Nomura maintained a Neutral and price target of $10 on BBRY.

[_dimi_]

With many stocks trading at 52 week highs, wouldn't it be attractive for companies to partially fund buy-outs by issuing shares? Morgan? :-)

Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

There's no guarantee of a deal. We're all just speculating scenarios. With this morning's announcement, a deal must be done ASAP to remove a cloud of uncertainty for potential enterprise customers and individual customers. This cannot drag out or sales could get worse before getting better.

My concern if the process drags out, then Prem Watsa does an about face and walks away. That's the worst-case scenario.

Another investor no one is considering is Indian investor like Tata or Singapore Sovereign Investment Fund. BlackBerry is very popular in Asian countries.

Although I am down 5 figures now, and sit @ 14.94 BB.TO (foolishly), I have to agree with some points that Sleuth makes, and hey, a good opposing opinion is needed in all valid fields and industries. The qualifier remains to be whether or not any opposition stated here holds water.

Let's not forget what happened to us just before last ER with all the cheering. We got slammed, and not for fair or valid reasons.
I hate to say it, but the bears were the good-guys last round.

[Kris Erickson]

Personally I can't see BlackBerry being privatised.

BlackBerry as a private company would face the same or even more challenges than it is facing today. Would they get the same media coverage?

Yes they would face the same challenges but now as a private company they won't have to listen to Wall Street make forecasted sales numbers and see their SP drop when they don't reach it. Here play a game with me... If I told you my company sold 1 million widgets in the first quarter and followed up those sales with 2.3 million the next quarter and only lost 86 million dollars but increased my cash by a billion would you say my company is growing, or failing? THAT is what going private means to BB, they don't have to fall to the whims of stock analysts

I believe this is the likely scenario, and my gut feeling says:

1. Amazon2. Microsoft
3. IBM
4. Lenovo (in combination with IBM for the server side)

Posted via CB10

Yes Amazon is the best case, they have a Tablet that is doing well, they have a Songs, Movies, Book to sell thru they are basically Apple without the phones or in-roads to cell customers. This would be a perfect match and I pray it would happen.

[take99]

Although I am down 5 figures now, and sit @ 14.94 BB.TO (foolishly), I have to agree with some points that Sleuth makes, and hey, a good opposing opinion is needed in all valid fields and industries. The qualifier remains to be whether or not any opposition stated here holds water.

Let's not forget what happened to us just before last ER with all the cheering. We got slammed, and not for fair or valid reasons.
I hate to say it, but the bears were the good-guys last round.

I think you missed the post where he found it amusing that you lost 6 figures.....just another piler on...

[bk1022]

Personally I can't see BlackBerry being privatised.

How would they improve the facets they currently lack? ...

The current value of BBRY is acquired by breaking up the company and selling pieces to companies that want those pieces. There is little or no value to be unlocked from BlackBerry's handset business itself. Now you understand the market better, but probably should question your ability to invest in such a volatile stock.

[bk1022]

There's no guarantee of a deal. We're all just speculating scenarios. With this morning's announcement, a deal must be done ASAP to remove a cloud of uncertainty for potential enterprise customers and individual customers. This cannot drag out or sales could get worse before getting better.

My concern if the process drags out, then Prem Watsa does an about face and walks away. That's the worst-case scenario.

Another investor no one is considering is Indian investor like Tata or Singapore Sovereign Investment Fund. BlackBerry is very popular in Asian countries.

This is literally a reverse poison pill. If shareholders don't agree to sell, they will be left with nothing very quickly.

[INTz]

Where's our shadowy friend today? Seems to have conveniently disappeared. Hope you took your own advice and had some stops in place for your short.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Why are people convinced that either facebook or amazon will bid for the company? Neither seem very likely to me.

[leafs123]

Why are people convinced that either facebook or amazon will bid for the company? Neither seem very likely to me.

Mostly because both are increasing their mobile play, specifically Amazon with it's potential long rumoured device.

Like you, I don't see it happening.

I also don't see IBM happening like some have mentioned. Their cash situation is deteriorating.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Mostly because both are increasing their mobile play, specifically Amazon with it's potential long rumoured device.

Like you, I don't see it happening.

I also don't see IBM happening like some have mentioned. Their cash situation is deteriorating.

Posted via CB10

Why does Amazon, for a mobile play need BlackBerry, when it already has a successful android fork?

Equally leaving aside oddities like the HTC one, bbry has nothing that Facebook needs in regards to mobile.


Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 2

[leafs123]

Why does Amazon, for a mobile play need BlackBerry, when it already has a successful android fork?

Equally leaving aside oddities like the HTC one, bbry has nothing that Facebook needs in regards to mobile.


Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 2

Yeah but I'm talking about whether they would want their own OS for the devices. I know the Kindle Fire uses Android, which is heavily skinned and unrecognizable really.

The HTC One was basically DOA for FB and HTC. Having a FB app run the whole UI was a bad idea.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Yeah but I'm talking about whether they would want their own OS for the devices. I know the Kindle Fire uses Android, which is heavily skinned and unrecognizable really.

The HTC One was basically DOA for FB and HTC. Having a FB app run the whole UI was a bad idea.

Posted via CB10

I still can't see it - bbry is toxic in their key markets and the value of the company is in corporate services.