[W Hoa]

HTC's Weak Outlook Confirms A Smartphone Bloodbath Lies Ahead

We�ve seen this before in many consumer electronic markets, but what�s different about the smartphone market is that Samsung Electronics and Apple AAPL +1.57% already had nearly 47% of the market in the recently completed June quarter. According to figures from Strategy Analytics, however, that combined share is down from 51% in the March quarter due to sequential share loss for Apple�s iPhone while Samsung maintained its market share at 31%. The data suggests that sales of higher end smartphone sales have slowed � even Apple�s iPhone unit sales while better than expected in the June quarter took a better than 16% sequential tumble compared to the March quarter.

With average selling prices of these devices coming under pressure as vendors look to grow smartphone share at the mid- and low-tier price points, margins will be the thing to watch.

HTC's Weak Outlook Confirms A Smartphone Bloodbath Lies Ahead - Forbes

[Bugmapper]

What are other's strategies to see their investments long-term amidst all the chaos, dips, burns and crashes.

I know many here consider this a solid fundamental investment on the basis of - locked niche user base (hardware), MDM service revenues, BES 10 service revenues. These are the only real sources of income now for BB - the future expansion into automotive, medical & peripheral displays/extensions is all speculative at this point.

Now my question would be - were we accurately valued at say around $13 - $14. If so, this investment may still be profitable for many of us on this forum as our ACB was around that range (at minimum we break-even).

It's simply hard considering it feels like we are being held under water.

I still believe that the pre-ER trading price range was reflective of the value of the BBRY at minimum its BV. However I feel our price is going to sink lower into next ER, possibly close to $8 =(.

Not meant to be a downer, just looking for perspective from others who have, well I suppose had the sheer experience of time with their investments. I'm only a few months in and I can't seem to hold onto my investments. Is it because BBRY is more speculative? Should I be holding more 'stable' stocks?

I appreciate anyone's feedback!

I have < 10% of the experience of many people around here (and <1% of a couple)..... but.... In some ways it comes down to whether you want the thrill/adventure of a volatile/speculative investment, or a nice predictable index ETF. This experience will teach you what your risk tolerance truly is.

This stock reminds me of my father when he taught me to drive... "Don't watch the asphalt going under the hood of the car, watch the horizon. That is where you are going and that is what you should be focused on. If you watch your hood ornament you will end up in the ditch".

We all need to focus on the horizon, including Blackberry. The asphalt under the hood of the car is already here and it is too late to worry about.

[Compaqee]

I have < 10% of the experience of many people around here (and <1% of a couple)..... but.... In some ways it comes down to whether you want the thrill/adventure of a volatile/speculative investment, or a nice predictable index ETF. This experience will teach you what your risk tolerance truly is.

This stock reminds me of my father when he taught me to drive... "Don't watch the asphalt going under the hood of the car, watch the horizon. That is where you are going and that is what you should be focused on. If you watch your hood ornament you will end up in the ditch"

Thanks - that helps a lot! Especially your father's quote. Appreciate it sir!

[rarsen]

Some general information on DELL and APPLE who have their own problems.
Michael Dell finding that karma can be tough | ZDNet
Apple exec Bob Mansfield steps down to work on 'special projects' | ZDNet

I console myself somewhat as a Long investor, comparing BBRY on a NASDAQ chart with APPLE who has much less fluctuations but with a steady down line which could continue over time. Must remain patient as doesn't appear easy for any of the suppliers (except Samsung which has long term weaknesses) all seeking the large financial rewards further in time. Seeking to LONG live and prosper. Enjoy the summer until things improve.

[bergeron37]

Quick first impressions?

Honestly it's excellent. Logged into BB Protect and the setup was pretty much done by itself. After 24 hours I think I have the swipes down so I am very happy. I'm with ATT in the U.S. (yeah, I know) and the sales person was very helpful. He straight up told me they really had not sold many but he was a supporter and said he hopes to see them come back from these troubled times. Overall, very impressed with the Q and am extremely happy I waited. Now for the obligatory, LONG BBRY

[greyw0lf01]

Not meant to be a downer, just looking for perspective from others who have, well I suppose had the sheer experience of time with their investments. I'm only a few months in and I can't seem to hold onto my investments. Is it because BBRY is more speculative? Should I be holding more 'stable' stocks?

I appreciate anyone's feedback!

Compaqee,

I tend to approach investing from a more cautious standpoint. I generally start with a balanced portfolio, so some big names, mid caps then smaller caps. The smaller caps tend to outperform depending on the economic cycle and conversely underperform in when things look less sanguine. I�ve excluded fixed income securities for simplicity sake.

An alternate approach as you suggested is to follow a broad market index because it�s difficult to beat the market no matter who you are. Following this approach won�t make you rich overnight but you�ll be able to sleep a heck of a lot better overnight. You can think about throwing in some speculative or high volatility names like Blackberry where if you�re right on the thesis, it pays off handsomely or if it doesn�t, you�re portfolio isn�t wiped out.

A few commenter�s have stated that they have disposable income to play this name... I�d say figure out your risk tolerance: high, med, low. If you�re questioning where to go next, you�re probably not in the high risk tolerance category.

[silversun10]

BlackBerry Q5 Smartphone Launches in Canada - Yahoo! Finance

funny how Rogers is not listed

[leafs123]

funny how Rogers is not listed

Yeah but Fido is Rogers, so there's that.

[rarsen]

Some thoughts on developing needs of required security...
Researchers banned from publishing data on luxury car hacks | SmartPlanet

rarsen

[Compaqee]

Compaqee,

I tend to approach investing from a more cautious standpoint. I generally start with a balanced portfolio, so some big names, mid caps then smaller caps. The smaller caps tend to outperform depending on the economic cycle and conversely underperform in when things look less sanguine. I’ve excluded fixed income securities for simplicity sake.

An alternate approach as you suggested is to follow a broad market index because it’s difficult to beat the market no matter who you are. Following this approach won’t make you rich overnight but you’ll be able to sleep a heck of a lot better overnight. You can think about throwing in some speculative or high volatility names like Blackberry where if you’re right on the thesis, it pays off handsomely or if it doesn’t, you’re portfolio isn’t wiped out.

A few commenter’s have stated that they have disposable income to play this name... I’d say figure out your risk tolerance: high, med, low. If you’re questioning where to go next, you’re probably not in the high risk tolerance category.

Thanks for the input! I recently rebalanced it similar to your initial paragraph - multiple large cap big names a few mid and one small. When you say fixed income I assume you mean bonds? I definitely felt much better once I reduced my BBRY position, looking to get back in with a less sizable portion of my portfolio. Not that I don't believe, but mitigating risk.

Trying to learn to 'protect' my capital and not go so balls-deep. Time Value of Money seems to still support that the simple market return of roughly 6-7% a year will still make you a happy man in the future so long as you continue to build your portfolio. I think it was simply greed which caused my crazy 75% in on BBRY.

Thanks again!

[OMGitworks]

Actually we can not only assume, but guarantee that this is not the case.

I had to clarify this in respect with Prem Watsa as I have now read this several times that he is short BBRY or he has hedged his BBRY position through puts or the like.

First off, Fairfax does not specifically hedge individual positions, rather they enter total return swaps on various indices that the underlying positions have some correlation to. To hedge its portfolio against the possibility of a bear market, Fairfax takes out short positions against the S&P500 and Russell 2000 (small cap index), selling the broad market indexes so the company will benefit if they decline.
Although the hedge is of the same size as Fairfax�s stock portfolio, it does not specifically cover the value stocks that Mr. Watsa owns (or as the pros say, is �long� in). As a result, it is not an exact hedge. There is a slight mismatch.

See quote below from Prem:

Prem Watsa

Yes, I�m sorry. So, in response to the in equity markets in 2009, and early 2010, the economic uncertainty in the U.S. our equity hedge ratio to approximately 93% of our equity exposure. The effect of this increase by entering into Russell 2000 and total return swap contracts, average index level of 646.5. This was in addition to the S&P 500. Russell�s total return swap contracts we had done in September 2009 at an S&P 500. Now, I�ll give you some information on the line financials, Thank you.

Additionally, see below from a call recently

Q How are your investments structured now for the future?

A We are not in commodities and missed out on that run-up totally. Value guys miss those cycles. What we do is buy stocks but hedge them against the S&P.

Essentially what he does is similar to what anyone can do which is use inverse ETF's to hedge their equity portfolio and go long undervalued companies. For example using SH (short S&P) and RWM (short Russell 2000) and maybe VIXM (intermediate volatility index) as hedges, (as an FYI due to contango the short term volatility index is not recommended, nor is holding VIXM for more than a month). You can also buy puts against these indices as well.
In essence he is going long those stocks he believes are undervalued like BBRY and shorting the market for which his positions may be part of like the nasdaq composite. Although BBRY was kicked out of the Nasdaq 100 (as was NFLX) late last year!
Another way to think about this is he thinks the market at times is overvalued (although not always, because he has removed his equity hedges before and gone long, as he did late in 2008). see below from the conf call with Prem

�Given the unprecedented decline of the equity markets during the past several months, we felt it was prudent to promptly inform our shareholders that we closed out our equity index total return swaps this week and effectively eliminated our equity portfolio hedge. While we believe the recession may be long and deep, we also believe that stock prices may have already discounted the worst of the economic decline. As value investors, we are finding an incredible number of investment opportunities across the world. That said, in the short term we recognize that stock markets can continue to fall significantly.�

Le me conclude with saying the strategy does not always work as his returns the past 3 years have not beaten the markets. As a result of recent hedges, Fairfax is sitting on $1.8 billion of unrealized losses (as of Dec. 31, 2012) in its equity hedge and CPI derivative portfolios.
However in the long term they have beaten by a wide margin.

But does this help Prem when the index markets are soaring but his individual picks are wrong? Doesn't he lose on both counts if he is short a rising index fund and long a losing individual stock? Both S&P and QQQ are substantially higher while BBRY is not.

BlackBerry Limited Stock Chart | BBRY Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance

[plasmid_boy]

Also my retirement date.

So, both you and I have nothing to worry about then

[pillswoj]

Some thoughts on developing needs of required security...
Researchers banned from publishing data on luxury car hacks | SmartPlanet

rarsen

Interesting that Bentley was specifically mentioned.

[danprown]

This has been interesting to me:

According to the seeking alpha transcipt, this was said by TH at the shareholders' meeting:
"At the time of BlackBerry Live in May, we have 12,000 companies that had installed BES 10 for commercial or test purposes. Today, this commercial and test installed base have grown to 19,000, just within four weeks, a clear indication of the strong enterprise interest in our reengineered BlackBerry 10 Enterprise platform."

Someone posted in this thread http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...51/index2.html that BBRY Managing Director for India said at http://www.indianexpress.com/news/we...ani/1147900/0:

"What will be your strategy going forward for the India market?

We are built on three fundamental pillars. One is we are going to drive software, services and hardware revenue. Hardware revenue will come in through the device portfolio, we are going to launch more BB 10 and BB 7 devices. So the hardware sales will come in from there.

Talking about software and services revenue for the company, we got 14k BES 10 servers downloads already. In addition, we are seeing BBM going cross platform very soon, that is in a way expanding your social community. A Q5 or a Q10 will be an enabler for that. What this means is that the 60 million plus BBM users globally will grow exponentially in the coming one year. Once you create this strong channel of the BBM community, we'll roll out the BBM channel. So as a company, you can put your product on the BBM channel and have people subscribe to it.

The third one is going to be the enterprise in a big way. The entire roadmap is evolved with BES 10 to manage devices into the cloud. Our go-to-market strategy is all partner based, we have 9 carrier partners and we have distributor partners like Ingram Micro and Redington; we are going to leverage this network. "

Where does this 14K downloads number come from? Is it possible that Indian companies are taking over 70% of the BES installs for BBRY? That would be great news for India (not so globally).

[Bugmapper]

Interesting that Bentley was specifically mentioned.

They said they had control of the ECU's, not the infotainment system! They can hack my car but not my stereo and GPS cuz it is running QNX!

[greyw0lf01]

Thanks for the input! I recently rebalanced it similar to your initial paragraph - multiple large cap big names a few mid and one small. When you say fixed income I assume you mean bonds? I definitely felt much better once I reduced my BBRY position, looking to get back in with a less sizable portion of my portfolio. Not that I don't believe, but mitigating risk.

Trying to learn to 'protect' my capital and not go so balls-deep. Time Value of Money seems to still support that the simple market return of roughly 6-7% a year will still make you a happy man in the future so long as you continue to build your portfolio. I think it was simply greed which caused my crazy 75% in on BBRY.

Thanks again!

Yep, fixed income = bonds. The thing I find challenging sometimes and am always fighting to keep in check are opportunity costs.

I can buy BBRY now thinking that in 12-18 months it’ll rally back to x share price. If I approach it that way, I’m possibly tying my capital up w/ little movement or I can better utilize funds by purchase longer dated call options where your downside is limited (options expire worthless) and your upside if you’re correct will payoff in spades with a much lower $$$ outlay.

Happy investing.

[plasmid_boy]

Just wanted to say this before 10:30 hits. We are GREEN! LOL

[leafs123]

Good read here.

The disunited state of Android | The Verge

[Compaqee]

Yep, fixed income = bonds. The thing I find challenging sometimes and am always fighting to keep in check are opportunity costs.

I can buy BBRY now thinking that in 12-18 months it’ll rally back to x share price. If I approach it that way, I’m possibly tying my capital up w/ little movement or I can better utilize funds by purchase longer dated call options where your downside is limited (options expire worthless) and your upside if you’re correct will payoff in spades with a much lower $$$ outlay.

Happy investing.

Opportunity cost has been part of the reason why I exited BBRY temporarily. It has been trading relatively sideways at $9. I still believe in the company's fundamentals and goals but the market hasn't yet appreciated it. I feel I have some time to recoup those 'losses' or make some money on that capital and still be back in 'time' for the climb forward in BBRY.

Although reading intelligent investor has come to reason that investing rather than timing is more important. Better to invest at a cheap price than to time the swings.

Sigh, so much to learn!

Thanks for the replies!

[W Hoa]

Good read here.

The disunited state of Android | The Verge

From the article:

The Galaxy Y, a super low-cost handset from 2011, is still the third-most used phone in the world.

[m0de25]

Just an observation: there's been many "flip flop days" in the last little while with regards to premarket versus what holds throughout the trading day. Red premarket, green day. Green premarket, red day.

[leafs123]

Can't break $8.90

[Shanerredflag]

Still decent gain if we can hold it...positive a couple percent is encouraging.

Posted via CB10

[slipstream89]

this has been happening for the last couple of months lol noticed it a long time ago and was day trading off this for a while

Just an observation: there's been many "flip flop days" in the last little while with regards to premarket versus what holds throughout the trading day. Red premarket, green day. Green premarket, red day.

[dusdal]

Follow Throught:

I Stay Short Overnight from $8.68

Regards 8-)

Hi Mikhou,

Did you set stops on this and manage to close your position or are you riding out this morning's jump?