[kfh227]

$8.25 means breaking down from the bigger parallel channel, and that would be really bad.

I'm a value investor. I invest based on the business. No offense, but I think TA is worthless. it works until it doesn't. Just a few days ago, TA people were saying that a run to $12 or something should occur in a few weeks. We'll see how that goes.

[kfh227]

The USA perception.

had poker last night with 8 friends in Connecticut. One person recognized the phone. At the end of the night I was adding a new players e-mail to the poker list when the e-mail address I had typed wrong just totally deleted itself. No one saw it happen but i just kinda say "oh, that shouldn't happen". Then someone said something about it being a Blackberry and everyone laughed. That is the USA perception. It doesn't work.... It's buggy ... etc

They need to fix this issue along with the app gap ASAP. They can get the consumer back but they are approaching it entirely wrong. Advertising won't do anything for them if there are no apps. So, there is the answer to the chicken and the egg. Will sales come before apps or will sales come after apps? The answer is after. No consumer is going to go after apps even though the OS is awesome.

[CDM76]

I'm a value investor. I invest based on the business. No offense, but I think TA is worthless.

That's your opinion. Doesn't mean every one else needs to agree with it. So stop trying to force it.


Posted via CB10

[Reed Richards]

I am enjoying the heightened level of discourse and debate here over the last day. Two observations about BB10 and BBM and their competition.

Yes, BB10 will have to battle hard to pick off iPhone and Droid users. However, it is a big mistake to equate Droid's market share with high user satisfaction. My Droid owner friends all say the same thing: once you have a Droid for a year or so, it bogs down and starts to do strange things. Email and social messaging do not come through in a timely fashion, and calls drop. One friend's Motorola Slider reboots constantly. They treat the last six to twelve months of their two-year Droid contracts as being a long slog they endure until they can upgrade. Do they love the OS? Yes, when it works. But let's not pretend that owning a Droid is all gummy bears and rainbows, ok? One good friend who has made fun of my Z10 actually said that he wishes his phone was "all cool with sliding stuff around" like mine (he meant the Flow and Peek features). He's on Sprint, so he would have to wait for the A10.

So, fine, maybe some Droid and iPhone users will switch, but maybe they won't. But as far as WhatsApp, FB, and Google being entrenched social messaging options that BBM can't compete against? Laughable. Google Talk or Google Hangouts is bug-tastic and has been for years. It USED to be better. Connectivity is intermittent, and messages are lost regularly. Worse, the app will TELL you you're connected, and you won't be. FaceBook? Anyone who loves FaceBook as a messaging platform, raise your hand and explain why. Tell me its strengths, because I would love to know them. From notifications that aren't made, to a lousy desktop layout, to incomprehensible behavior. On your desktop, FB mimics the look of an email client. But it's not. On my phone I deleted a message from my friend Steve. Little did I realize that it deleted EVERY SINGLE MESSAGE we had ever exchanged, because it treats every message (sent and received) as all part of one thread. With no Deleted Items folder, and no chance to get back what you lost. Thanks FB. I have never used WhatsApp, because a) no one I know in the States uses it and b) its poor reputation precedes it.

Sure, BlackBerry can still fumble the opportunity with BBM. It can fail to monetize it. But this is where the competition seems weakest. I can guarantee I can get three Droid and iPhone users to download BBM immediately. And I can probably get around ten more in short order when I explain that it doesn't use that much data, and they can scale back their expensive texting (SMS) plans as a result. A single BB10 user might never get a colleague or friend to get a BB10 phone, but they can easily get their friends to try the free BBM app.

[danprown]

Hold on, Morgan:

You are implying that TH drove the share price down in order to benefit from RSU option pricing with the blessing of another director who "traded" accordingly.

Directors have a fiduciary duty to the corporation and are subject to the business judgment rule. A director cannot run down the share price on purpose in order to benefit from stock options, let alone trade on information about such conduct. What you are suggesting is against the laws of Ontario.

What you are are also doing is making a defamatory statement that tends to injure the reputation of TH and PW. Canada follows the English common law on defamation which is one of the most "plaintiff-friendly" defamation frameworks in the world. Peopleforum shop to sue for defamation in Canada. I am sure if you look into it, you will find that there is little chance of successfully defending an action by by TH and Prem.

Now you know the reason no one is talking about it. If anyone raised this, they would be slapped by a law suit in Ontario.

Hi Sparkaction!

Yes, the information that you are after is in the "Management Information Circular" for the July 9th 2013 Special General Meeting:

Page 23:
Pricing: "Options must have an exercise price of not less than the closing trading price of the Common Shares on the
TSX or NASDAQ on the grant date, or if there is no closing trading price on that date, on the last preceding trading
day. RSU Awards may be expressed as either a number of RSUs, or be based on an aggregate dollar value of the
Award to be granted and divided by the closing trading price of the Common Shares on the TSX or NASDAQ on
the grant date."

http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...y_Circular.pdf

In the case of Heins then, he received his 3.46 million share/5-year term compensation on July 5th. If you look at the closing price of BBRY on that date, you will see something around $ 9.55/shr/US area and/or $ 10.15/shr/CDN price level.

My point over the past 8 weeks was to the effect that "where is the incentive for the company to provide excellent Q1 2014 results when they knew the RSU option pricing would be taking place shortly after the Q1 2014 results?". Heins and his team have certainly benefited from the fall in the stock haven't they? Everyone including Prem knew this was going to happen and might have traded accordingly? I'm guessing of course.

I made this point on several occasions because I knew BB was changing the way they compensate their staff from the more traditional system whereby pricing was the average of the prior 60 days of closing prices on either exchange. I hinted that you would want to get all of your dirty news out prior to the pricing of your RSU option pricing date. Why no one talks about this is beyond me. Hope that answers your question.

[OMGitworks]

Please refer to this section on Participation, Pg(s) 22 and 23:


Participation: Participation in the Equity Incentive Plan is open to employees of the Company and any of its
affiliates that are designated by the Board. Participation in the Equity Incentive Plan is voluntary. Awards are not
assignable, subject to certain rights of a participant�s estate following death as described below under �Termination
Entitlements�.
As under the Prior Plans, no more than 10% of the Company�s outstanding Common Shares may be issued to
insiders of the Company in any one year period pursuant to the Equity Incentive Plan or any other security-based
compensation arrangements, and no more than 10% of the Company�s outstanding Common Shares may be issued
pursuant to the Equity Incentive Plan or any other security-based compensation arrangement in the aggregate in any
one year period. No more than 5% of the Company�s outstanding Common Shares may be issued to any one
participant under the Equity Incentive Plan or any other security-based compensation arrangement.

Plan Maximum - The total number of shares available for grant under the Equity Incentive Plan will be 13,375,000.
Insider Limits - The aggregate number of shares issued to insiders of the Company within any 12-month period, or
issuable to insiders of the Company at any time, under the Equity Incentive Plan and any other security-based
compensation arrangement of the Company, may not exceed 10% of the total number of issued and outstanding
Common Shares of the Company at such time.

Award Agreements: Awards will be documented by written Award agreements, which will reflect the specific terms
of a particular grant of Options or RSUs. The Board has the discretion to permit the exercise of Awards on other
terms as it may determine, provided that no Award may be extended past the prescribed expiry date.
Shares Available and Share Counting: Subject to certain equitable adjustments as provided in the Equity Incentive
Plan and described below, a total of 13,375,000 shares will be authorized for Awards granted under the Equity
Incentive Plan, less 0.625 share for every one share that was subject to a Prior Option granted after March 2, 2013
and one share for every one share that was subject to a Prior RSU granted after March 2, 2013. Any shares that are
subject to Options will be counted against this limit as 0.625 share for every one Option granted, and any shares that
are subject to RSUs will be counted against this limit as one share for every one RSU granted. After the effective
date of the Equity Incentive Plan, no awards may be granted under any Prior Plan.

Heins was issued 3.46 million shares at $ 9.55, that's worth sandbagging for in my opinion. Think about it this way, if the stock can get back to $ 15.00/shr many here will be long gone from this mess, yet Heins will be pocketing $ 20 million bucks for basically doing nothing.

But I will be out at break even. At a wedding lab ants v Heineken battle

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Hold on, Morgan:

You are implying that TH drove the share price down in order to benefit from RSU option pricing with the blessing of another director who "traded" accordingly.

Now you know the reason no one is talking about it. If anyone raised this, they would be slapped by a law suit in Ontario.

How can you leap to an assumption or conclude that I think Heins drove the price down? That's crazy, please read my other posts. At the very least, it is in very bad taste to set stock option pricing after a terrible quarter and to not post the results of the option issue prior to the Special Annual Meeting on the 9th of July, just a few days later. These guys need to think these things through a bit better in the future. I'm a shareholder, if I felt they had somehow colluded to favour a better RSU price I would be suing their asses off. Believe me, if it were a fact that they somehow tried to manipulate the stock you would have to line up behind 1,000's of shareholders to get a piece of them. In the future, it would make more sense for them to show some respect to shareholders who have lost money at this time. They probably don't even realize they have done this.

[Geeoff]

If BBRY continues on their present trajectory and a buyer cannot be found, I can definitely see sub $5 as a possibility.

I will agree that it is theoretically possible to go below $5 in the long-term, but in the near/middle term it is impossible.

I mean this in a polite way, but on the interweb sometimes things sound more rude than they are meant. So don't take this in a bad way.... If you don't understand why the stock cannot go below $5 anytime soon then you really need to get some basic investing education.

The reasons are:

1. Three billion in cash and growing. There is *no* cash burn at present. The cash hasn't even started to decline, let alone burn. If they continue to have paper losses they will also continue to get large tax rebates.

2. Although the subscriber base has started to decline, it is not collapsing. AND THIS DECLINE IS EXPECTED WITH BB10. If the entire base switched to BB10 tomorrow then their subscribers would go to zero overnight, but the company would be very healthy. That is why they are ceasing to report subscribers in the future --- it is not part of BB10. They are switching to a model similar to Android and Apple that does not involve subscribers.

3. They are still ramping up new products. The only BB10 products right now are the Z10 and Q10. We are still waiting for the A10, full roll-out of BES 10.1, and cross platform BBM, among other things.

4. A relatively small market share is acceptable, as long as the absolute numbers are enough to sustain the company. They do need to be selling a good couple million phones each month, and that is exactly what they are doing.

Like I said at the start, long-term they might run into trouble, but right now they still have way too much cash and way too many opportunities.

And actually, the process of composing this response helped me to think through Blackberry's long-term opportunities again. Really, in a few months they will start firing on all cylinders. They will have more apps, a stable of BB10 products, and at least a number of enterprises will be gradually switching to BB10. Even in a bad case scenario, BB will be hanging on just fine. It would take an unexpected external shock to really hurt them hard.

[cjcampbell]

Now to lighten the mood. I'm out to drink so have a good night y'all.



Posted via CB10

[danprown]

I absolutely agree with your point, but the statement "Heins and his team have certainly benefited from the fall in the stock haven't they? Everyone including Prem knew this was going to happen and might have traded accordingly? I'm guessing of course." in conjuction with the info you provide is more than likely defamatory. Canada has very strict laws in that regard which have often led to seemingly absurd law suits, e.g. former hockey manager suing bloggers for reporting rumours of extramarital affairs, Conrad Black suing everyone for reporting he was charged in the US for a number of offences, etc.

Just a heads up because stranger things have happened. As we know JB and ML already were caught redhanded backdating stock options (so rare in Canada) and had to pay back millions of dollars so I wonder if BBRY will not be all too touchy in that regard.

[Geeoff]

Yes, BB10 will have to battle hard to pick off iPhone and Droid users. However, it is a big mistake to equate Droid's market share with high user satisfaction.

Anyone who loves FaceBook as a messaging platform, raise your hand and explain why. Tell me its strengths, because I would love to know them.

I like the occasional posters because they bring a slightly different perspective. So thanks for your comments!

First, about Facebook. I am a 39 year old guy who works in pediatric nursing. So that means a lot of my colleagues are females in their mid-20s. Most of them love Facebook, but they do not use it for instant messaging. Rather, it is for posting pictures and connecting with friends. SMS texting is more common and so I also see an opportunity for BBM here.

As for Android's marketshare, I absolutely agree that Android's market share is *not* directly related to user satisfaction. Android's market share is related to low cost, multiple options for consumers (many manufacturers use Android), and a few good phones (e.g. Samsung phablets). Android engenders little loyalty among its users and when BB gets its act together the Android market share is vulnerable.

This raises an interesting option that has not been discussed much lately. If BBRY starts to really crash and burn then they could start licensing BB10. This would not be a huge source of revenue immediately, but other manufacturers would love a good competitor to Android and BB10 offers a stable alternative that has been in development for years. BB10 has been released already and most of the major bugs are known. I know that licensing is not Thor's preferred option right now, but if the numbers start getting worse then I am sure that they will consider this. And licensing BB10 puts another floor under the stock price!

[danprown]

Are you Tim Z on twitter? Thanks for all the info.

Keep it in your Bookmark:

Latest information about Short Float on BBRY Updated each Day ------------>

BlackBerry Short Float Interactive Charts

Attachment 186482

[sparkaction]

The app gap will always exist with BlackBerry. This is something the company will need to build into their strategic business plan for the foreseeable future. This will not result in the death of bbry but the company will need to have an excellent understanding of its target market and then dominate it.

[BlackistheBerry]

Just got back home after a long day, and Wow!.... it has been really busy here for a Saturday!

Thanks to everyone for making their valid and not so valid points in civil and not so civil ways!

[tiziano27]

How many people on this thread have made their entire net worth from the equity markets? I know a few of us have and many of those folks follow the guru investors like Prem Watsa. Who would you rather follow, an analyst who may be smart but at best is accurate about 40% of the time. Heck, a coin flip has better odds. Or, you can buy prem's largest holding where he has committed almost a billion dollars and buy it for about half of what he paid. I would love to see the naysayers here and their personal track record. I will guarantee it won't come close to prem's.

How many investors bet on CDS before the crisis and made a few billion dollars like Prem did. (341 million bet into more than 2 billion.) Other than Paulson and Prem not many others. He understands risk. Can he be wrong? Sure he can, but I am very confident of his not losing with BBRY in the long run.
I appreciate the pro/con arguments as long as they are done in a respectful way.
Morgan is one of the smartest people I have not had the pleasure to meet! His insight is why I read this thread daily along with many others.


Posted via CB10

I called Prem Watsa an insignificant ant compared to zuck, gates, page and brin, etc. So I think this goes to me.
I didn't meant to insult the Canadian hero investor, I was just saying that he entered in business where is competing with some of the most talented guys in the world that are expanding the limits every day, and his presence in BlackBerry doesn't mean anything compared to them. I understand he started to buy RIM when the sp was $50. It can be that he just screw up.

I'm OK with the people wants to look knowledgeable even if is not, and your record is pretty bad. Everybody has his ego. But sometimes is just too much and I just questioned the post in a respectful way. Simple wishful thinking can be expressed in just a few lines without the business blah blah to make it look more of what it is.

[JLagoon]

Are you Tim Z on twitter? Thanks for all the info.

Wow, does this have the daily short volume? I thought, it is only reported every 2 weeks.

[lcjr]

There's some good reading here today! I hope everyone's enjoying the weekend. I'm using my Playbook right now to look at houses I'm interested in. Can't wait to get a bigger screen phone because my 9930 just isn't getting it anymore. Lol. Played with a Z10 today but I'm holding out for the A10. Just thinking about the possibilities of what other devices BB has up heir sleeves. Could they bring out some type docking station of some sort?

[Shanerredflag]

Lol you got to love the demented and distorted logic from the cry babies who scream cash burn and yet BlackBerry has kept building their cash holdings. Remember many of you negative wallowing sad people said bb10 would not even happen since BlackBerry would burn all their cash from advertising and product build. Well they built their cash to 3.1 billion from 2.1 billion. Why did that happen when you said they would be bankrupt by now? Oh I see now they will burn through their $6 in cash per share? Lol It's funny to see you waste so much of your time here on CB spreading misinformation. I hope you are at least getting paid for your time since it would be quite sad to waste ones time in such negativity and contempt.

Posted via CB10

This sir was way over due...lol, thank you.

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

Holy mackerel guys ! Tons to read this weekend. Thanks. I'm busy with a flooded basement and all the renos that go with. I look forward to some bedtime reading tonight.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

Sorry for the basement...but I'm sure a few will point out "the writing was on the wall".

Hope all goes well and insurance looks after you.

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

I am enjoying the heightened level of discourse and debate here over the last day. Two observations about BB10 and BBM and their competition.

Yes, BB10 will have to battle hard to pick off iPhone and Droid users. However, it is a big mistake to equate Droid's market share with high user satisfaction. My Droid owner friends all say the same thing: once you have a Droid for a year or so, it bogs down and starts to do strange things. Email and social messaging do not come through in a timely fashion, and calls drop. One friend's Motorola Slider reboots constantly. They treat the last six to twelve months of their two-year Droid contracts as being a long slog they endure until they can upgrade. Do they love the OS? Yes, when it works. But let's not pretend that owning a Droid is all gummy bears and rainbows, ok? One good friend who has made fun of my Z10 actually said that he wishes his phone was "all cool with sliding stuff around" like mine (he meant the Flow and Peek features). He's on Sprint, so he would have to wait for the A10.

So, fine, maybe some Droid and iPhone users will switch, but maybe they won't. But as far as WhatsApp, FB, and Google being entrenched social messaging options that BBM can't compete against? Laughable. Google Talk or Google Hangouts is bug-tastic and has been for years. It USED to be better. Connectivity is intermittent, and messages are lost regularly. Worse, the app will TELL you you're connected, and you won't be. FaceBook? Anyone who loves FaceBook as a messaging platform, raise your hand and explain why. Tell me its strengths, because I would love to know them. From notifications that aren't made, to a lousy desktop layout, to incomprehensible behavior. On your desktop, FB mimics the look of an email client. But it's not. On my phone I deleted a message from my friend Steve. Little did I realize that it deleted EVERY SINGLE MESSAGE we had ever exchanged, because it treats every message (sent and received) as all part of one thread. With no Deleted Items folder, and no chance to get back what you lost. Thanks FB. I have never used WhatsApp, because a) no one I know in the States uses it and b) its poor reputation precedes it.

Sure, BlackBerry can still fumble the opportunity with BBM. It can fail to monetize it. But this is where the competition seems weakest. I can guarantee I can get three Droid and iPhone users to download BBM immediately. And I can probably get around ten more in short order when I explain that it doesn't use that much data, and they can scale back their expensive texting (SMS) plans as a result. A single BB10 user might never get a colleague or friend to get a BB10 phone, but they can easily get their friends to try the free BBM app.

Very well said!

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Must have been a water heater in the basement that went bad?? Hope you get it under control without to much damage. I'd buy you a drink but you're kind of far away bugmapper.

[lcjr]

What are you up to tonight Shane?

[Shanerredflag]

There!!! haha....sorry guys, I have been busy all day, checked earlier...nothing but M8 awesomeness (which I'm very happy to see) then come back a few hours later and this. ..

Unbelievable!


Anyway...


Doing great Len, hope you are as well.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Oh yeah Shane. Just looking at houses online and setting up a list to go look at soon. Got to make the great escape out of El Paso. Lol also trying to find a job where I'm moving too. Wish I knew somebody in Colorado.

[Shanerredflag]

Oh yeah Shane. Just looking at houses online and setting up a list to go look at soon. Got to make the great escape out of El Paso. Lol also trying to find a job where I'm moving too. Wish I knew somebody in Colorado.

Nice! If I knew someone I would help ya but zero contacts there unfortunately.

I know it will work out for you as character and morals do count in buisness and especially in what your going into. You my friend will have no problem in that department!

Posted via CB10