[tiziano27]

sidhuk!

First off, love your posts! Some good work there so keep thinking outside the box. I see where you are coming from and I do believe they are looking at every possible way to capture value. Software/security/social is where its at, they could spin off that division and sell the Enterprise sector as a separate entity, while holding indirect ownership in shares. I would imagine a vote might have to take place for that to occur, maybe not though. If you want to scare shorts, you include a dividend, just about any dividend scares shorts as we hate to pay while we wait. But the biggest way to scare shorts is to create a new revenue stream! Now the P/E numbers start to fly and it can get scary, not unlike TSLA and others who hint of growth. I think they need to partner up on the hardware side and diminish the cost side of the equation. They need to call upon handsets when they need them while focusing on enterprise and social aspects of the business. Preserving capital, i.e. negate the burn of capital is the key to sending a message that the asset base will not be retracting from these levels. The holy grail of the short's argument is the cash burn, you stop that and you force them to look beyond BlackBerry. All of this is taking place but it is a year long process and one quarter is not going to tell you anything about BlackBerry's business model and what it will look like down the road. So far I believe they are doing many things in the right way, but they aren't executing fast enough for many of us today. If the stock were at $ 18.00/shr we wouldn't care if they needed 2 more quarters would we? You are right, we haven't seen any of the fruits of the research done by others as part of the new BlackBerry. I have to believe there are some radical changes coming down the road here.

I think that many of us think we are on top of this game, we have solid backgrounds in business and we have experience in technology and investments. Yet we don't have anywhere near the experience that guys like Prem have, or Zipperstein, etc., they are a class above us here. Building a company out of the ashes is something that is ongoing every day by experts in their fields. I see it all the time and have been able to watch it happen from the inside and these guys rarely fail at achieving their goals. If you followed every move that the Baker brothers have done in the past 5-years you would be stinking rich without leaving the golf course. These guys are brilliant beyond imagination.

Take Tourmaline Oil Corp. - TOU.TO - I met a guy who runs one of the best Funds out there today. We were both in Systems Excellence Ltd - SXT.TO, I had 165,000 shares and he had 1.5 million. He liked my comments on the company and we hit it off. That stock went from $ .33/shr to $ 54.00/shr today and we made some good money. He told me, as a parting shot to look at his next development, he and others formed TOU.TO, I didn't buy any at the time it came out at $ 20.00/shr but I knew this guy was a very good Fund manager. The stock was created, assets were bought to fill it up, they got institutions to buy the stock thus tying it all up and today it has been a great investment out of thin air. Brilliant people are doing this all the time and you just have to fine out who they are and follow them. BlackBerry is no different, the last laugh will be on the Seeking Alphas, Forbes, CNBC's of the world, they have no clue what is coming down for this company. We hear from Gesig Boek on this thread whenever something remotely smells of a BlackBerry failure. Just read what he has to say and look back on how ridiculous it sounds in the months ahead. We are getting too caught up on the day to day nonsense that is Gesig and ignoring the business model of the company itself.

The competence of BlackBerry:

BBM: Whatsapp, Microsoft, Facebook, Google..
BES10: Good, Airwatch, Citrix... Microsoft, IBM, SAP...
Smartphone: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Samsung...

So you could argue that Prem Watsa, those Baker brothers, your friend that did a good trade and haven't told you that BlackBerry is dead, all of them are just insignificant ants compared to the talent that you can find in the companies that BlackBerry is competing with.

You suspect that BlackBerry has some sort of secret projects but don't have any idea of what it could be.

Those aren't good arguments to keep the stock, looks more like an emotional response.

And about the infallibility of the brilliant business men, well what can you say, send your story to Eike Batista, maybe you get him his first laugh of the year.

[Geeoff]

Regarding my views, I think BB is in much bigger trouble than people really appreciate, and they have done everything possible to dig the hole deeper.

What BB should have done - port their secure environment to Android, release dirt cheap phones running Android and using BES and use BBM as an exclusive feature, and reap the profits. Its probably too late for that now.

Has it occurred to anyone that it may be the shorts covering which is supporting the share price, and that without them the share price will drift even lower?

Gisek and M+8,

Thanks for all the comments!! I really appreciate reading both sides of the discussion!!

I have to give Gisek credit -- the stock has dropped and the tone has turned very negative on most Crackberry forums. As well, I think that he is right is about Kantar (it is much more valuable than StatCounter). I also think he has a valid point that short covering has at least slowed the price drop in recent weeks.

However, BBRY is really cheap, and getting cheaper!! The company is not in such bad shape and it will definitely not go bankrupt in the next couple years. So the price drop must stop some time soon.

The big question is: Where is the bottom?

Clearly we are not going below $5. One other post suggested $7.75 as close to the bottom and that seems reasonable to me. So that may be my re-entry point.

I really, really appreciate civil, intelligent discussions between contrasting view-points. It is much more helpful than the fanboy's laser focus on how high the stock will go.

Full Disclosure: I'm a fanboy. I recently sold out and managed to break even, but I will probably be buying again with a few weeks.

[sidhuk]

If apple had given up developing a smart phone because blackberry was dominating the market based on some OF the negetive examples on this thread?
If apple had given up the pc business because microsoft dominated?
If android had given up and not developed smart phones in the face of apple and blackberry dominated market?
I am not sure how much weight these arguments carry that just give up, start another business because some ONE else is doing it already. Wow
i am pissed of at my self now that why i even waisted my time on this subject.
Gonna log off until monday.
Have a good weekend.

[CDM76]

Without the hardware business BBRY is degraded to a start-up trying to enter two crowded markets without a clear advantage to succeed.

BlackBerry as a brand has value, and probably has more value associated with a smartphone than associated to those two new services.
So, a good alternative could be backpedal the change of name of the company to RIM. Add Android or WP to their phone portfolio, and then sell the whole hardware/os unit, including the brand, to Huawei, Lenovo, Nokia, Microsoft, etc.

It's important that BBRY change the association of the brand to the hardware and not the OS. They have to build a great Android or WP phone and promote it before selling the hardware unit. They could keep the brands BBM and BES for their service offer.

An Android or WP phone branded BlackBerry would be a good signal to the market to position BES10 as a broad MDM solution and not a solution centered in BB10.

Put down the crack pipe and step away from the keyboard. LoL

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

Clearly we are not going below $5. One other post suggested $7.75 as close to the bottom and that seems reasonable to me. So that may be my re-entry point.

I have the same basic hypothesis. I am probably going to add more to my position at $8.25 or I simply am not going to add anything.

If the Jan 2015 calls at the 30 strike get to 10 cents though, I am buying a ton. Same goes for the 35 strikes which are now at a .14/.18 bid/ask. Actually, since I'm looking at them, here goes the order.

[timmy t]

The competence of BlackBerry:

BBM: Whatsapp, Microsoft, Facebook, Google..
BES10: Good, Airwatch, Citrix... Microsoft, IBM, SAP...
Smartphone: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Samsung...

So you could argue that Prem Watsa, those Baker brothers, your friend that did a good trade and haven't told you that BlackBerry is dead, all of them are just insignificant ants compared to the talent that you can find in the companies that BlackBerry is competing with.

You suspect that BlackBerry has some sort of secret projects but don't have any idea of what it could be.

Those aren't good arguments to keep the stock, looks more like an emotional response.

And about the infallibility of the brilliant business men, well what can you say, send your story to Eike Batista, maybe you get him his first laugh of the year.

What does "The competence of BlackBerry" mean?

[timmy t]

"..You suspect that BlackBerry has some sort of secret projects but don't have any idea of what it could be.."

No, he said "they" have no idea. We do. Repositioning the NOC away from BBM and email and toward government and corporate secured, private networks with hooks into over 600 carriers networks, for one.

[morganplus8]

Gesig Boek;8898879]To be fair, I did not post the O2 Germany story, I just added a correction.
That was some way to deliver your correction! You didn't add to the value of the message by claiming that a "rumour" about BlackBerry getting locked out of Tele. We assumed on June 26th, when the article first appeared, that BlackBerry phones would be seeing some competition from WP. That's a given an is not worthy of cheerleading a rumour about it. If we believed in rumours we would all be wearing iWatches 6 months ago.


2) What does management do - price their new models very high, get rid of free internet and make BBM cross platform.
I respectfully disagree with you here. BBM is used across all economic sectors, by exploding the number of BBM users, they could take from the many individual social sites available today. Imagine having a complete package of superior voice, video, voice and video communication worldwide? Do you honestly think that Facebook modeled its business by selection of the richest? They opened Facebook to the world and BlackBerry has to complete in the same vain. BlackBerry marketed their phone the way one would expect a major brand to do, they take all levels of available consumer credit in a tiered fashion. You are already seeing this happen with zero down, payment programs and the like, it takes time to trickle down to all economic levels. Perhaps a partnership is next here, one that makes use of Android as you mentioned as a second tier brand of BlackBerry. The Chinese invented tiered marketing in North America and BB might be thinking along the same wholesale lines down the road. You seem to think that BlackBerry is BBM, they are far more deeper than that. They need scale to get back into the race and now is the time while the social sector is fragmented. It seems you think "BlackBerry Warehouse" would make them far more money than an upscale brand. The fact is, they need that upscale brand to hold them over until they are the kings of BYOD.


The issue is arrogance of management and a poor understanding of their user base. If BBM ever comes to Android the user base will evaporate in only 2 or 3 quarters to phones which do more, especially given that BB10 is not compatible with BB7 apps.
I get the feeling you are a victim of staring at just one potential market for BB. BB07 is dying off, apps are a function of Jelly Bean and native development. Social Networking is huge in North America and as Heins keeps telling us, BB owners spend 90 minutes each day on BBM.
That's a market you want to tap!

What BB should have done - port their secure environment to Android, release dirt cheap phones running Android and using BES and use BBM as an exclusive feature, and reap the profits. Its probably too late for that now.
I like your idea here but what makes you think they aren't in talks to do this right now? A partner in Lenovo could blow this whole market wide open and that can happen at anytime.

Has it occurred to anyone that it may be the shorts covering which is supporting the share price, and that without them the share price will drift even lower? Heck no! Shorts are leaning on the stock until they are finished this round of selling. One month of 20 million shares does not make a market. [/QUOTE]

Thanks for taking the time to post your views.

[kfh227]

Free call options!?!?!

Yes, there is risk. But what about this:

Sell the Dec 2013 puts at the 5 strike for 13 cents. Buy the Jan 2015 calls at the 35 strike for 14 cents.

I am thinking about doing this with a VERY SMALL amount of options. Anyone else thinking about this kind of strategy?

Thing is, if the stock does get to $8/share this is a very real possibly awesome idea since the puts should be worth more and the calls worth less. I'll be keeping an eye on these.

[JLagoon]

I have the same basic hypothesis. I am probably going to add more to my position at $8.25 or I simply am not going to add anything.

If the Jan 2015 calls at the 30 strike get to 10 cents though, I am buying a ton. Same goes for the 35 strikes which are now at a .14/.18 bid/ask. Actually, since I'm looking at them, here goes the order.

$8.25 means breaking down from the bigger parallel channel, and that would be really bad.

[W Hoa]

Regarding my views, I think BB is in much bigger trouble than people really appreciate, and they have done everything possible to dig the hole deeper.Its like management is trying to kill the company.

What BB should have done - port their secure environment to Android, release dirt cheap phones running Android and using BES and use BBM as an exclusive feature, and reap the profits. Its probably too late for that now.

You raise some very interesting points. Where I would depart from your analysis is that smartphones are becoming a commodity. If BlackBerry were to abandon phone production and focus entirely on software and services I wouldn't be shocked.

BlackBerry could very well, as you say, 'reap the profits' from BES and BBM, but this could happen irrespective of whether they produce a phone or not. In the meantime, BB10 could be a differentiator in the near term, so who knows?

[Gesig Boek]

BlackBerry could very well, as you say, 'reap the profits' from BES and BBM, but this could happen irrespective of whether they produce a phone or not. In the meantime, BB10 could be a differentiator in the near term, so who knows?

This goes round and around. When Apple was doing well everyone wanted to get into hardware. Now Apple is not doing so well margin-wise people want to go to software.

[cjcampbell]

This goes round and around. When Apple was doing well everyone wanted to get into hardware. Now Apple is not doing so well margin-wise people want to go to software.

yes.... all revolves around Apple.....

[W Hoa]

This goes round and around. When Apple was doing well everyone wanted to get into hardware. Now Apple is not doing so well margin-wise people want to go to software.

Apples strength was always its software. It made nice hardware to house and deploy it. Currently BlackBerry's strength lies in its software and services. It would make sense to play to its strengths.

[tiziano27]

If apple had given up developing a smart phone because blackberry was dominating the market based on some OF the negetive examples on this thread?
If apple had given up the pc business because microsoft dominated?
If android had given up and not developed smart phones in the face of apple and blackberry dominated market?
I am not sure how much weight these arguments carry that just give up, start another business because some ONE else is doing it already. Wow
i am pissed of at my self now that why i even waisted my time on this subject.
Gonna log off until monday.
Have a good weekend.

I agree, but you have to offer some advantage to the user, this is not a standardized product. You have a behavior of networks, the more people using a product more difficult is for new competitor to enter the market.

If a guy come to say buy BlackBerry because I guess they have some secret plans, ... aaand Prem Watsa is in, ...aaaaand friend who made a good trade in the past, is not telling they are in trouble. There is nothing solid in that argument.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

Gisek and M+8,

The big question is: Where is the bottom?

Clearly we are not going below $5.

Why not?

Consider:
-Cash burn (promo prices, advertising costs they keep promising to increase, etc) as they attempt to save their handset business.

-Handset marketshare collapse despite desperate attempts to stay relevant as described above. MSFT is finally gaining a bit of traction (eg O2) for the scraps and mentioning Apple and Google (?92%) in the same sentence as BBRY when discussing marketshare just seems wrong.

-The collapse in subscriber revenue. BBRY is actually refusing to release subscriber data in the future. Really confidence inspiring.

-The plentiful, well funded and entrenched competition they face in messaging and MDM. Do you think BBRY services, even if they are not strangled in the cradle by their competition ($1 per year for Whatsapp, free handset to handset video calls for Skype, Good Technology etc) will ramp up at a pace anywhere fast enough to compensate for the loss in revenue from handset/BIS that is happening?

If BBRY continues on their present trajectory and a buyer cannot be found, I can definitely see sub $5 as a possibility.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

Why is Celestica relevant to post now? BlackBerry cut ties with them a year ago.

As well, they built consumer devices for BB when they had the contract, not network and/or infrastructure equipment.

Good to know. Thanks.

Got this from Reuters, but never followed up. Looks like old news.
July 26 (Reuters) - Canadian contract electronics manufacturer Celestica Inc reported a 14 percent drop in quarterly revenue due to the loss of a contract with BlackBerry Ltd.

Thanks for the correction.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

Hi Sparkaction!

In the case of Heins then, he received his 3.46 million share/5-year term compensation on July 5th. If you look at the closing price of BBRY on that date, you will see something around $ 9.55/shr/US area and/or $ 10.15/shr/CDN price level.

My point over the past 8 weeks was to the effect that "where is the incentive for the company to provide excellent Q1 2014 results when they knew the RSU option pricing would be taking place shortly after the Q1 2014 results?". Heins and his team have certainly benefited from the fall in the stock haven't they? Everyone including Prem knew this was going to happen and might have traded accordingly? I'm guessing of course.

I made this point on several occasions because I knew BB was changing the way they compensate their staff from the more traditional system whereby pricing was the average of the prior 60 days of closing prices on either exchange. I hinted that you would want to get all of your dirty news out prior to the pricing of your RSU option pricing date. Why no one talks about this is beyond me.

Wow, it all makes sense now.

It was bad enough when it was just:
-The media
-The major carriers
-The US government (especially the NSA)
-A network of sleeper cells spreading lies in this forum

Now you let me finally see that the CEO of BBRY is in on pushing the stock price down as well?

This conspiracy truly reaches the highest levels.

[Kid Vibe]

Wow, it all makes sense now.

It was bad enough when it was just:
-The media
-The major carriers
-The US government (especially the NSA)
-A network of sleeper cells spreading lies in this forum

Now you let me finally see that the CEO of BBRY is in on pushing the stock price down as well?

This conspiracy truly reaches the highest levels.

Business Ethics... Ha, there are no ethics in business

[pkcable]

Get along or we WILL issue infractions! Remember you can disagree without being disagreeable!

[Shanerredflag]

So glad your feeling better M8 and thank you for the verbage today...exceptional!!

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

I have the same basic hypothesis. I am probably going to add more to my position at $8.25 or I simply am not going to add anything.

If the Jan 2015 calls at the 30 strike get to 10 cents though, I am buying a ton. Same goes for the 35 strikes which are now at a .14/.18 bid/ask. Actually, since I'm looking at them, here goes the order.

Me to...like 100,000 of them!

Posted via CB10

[kadakn01]

How many people on this thread have made their entire net worth from the equity markets? I know a few of us have and many of those folks follow the guru investors like Prem Watsa. Who would you rather follow, an analyst who may be smart but at best is accurate about 40% of the time. Heck, a coin flip has better odds. Or, you can buy prem's largest holding where he has committed almost a billion dollars and buy it for about half of what he paid. I would love to see the naysayers here and their personal track record. I will guarantee it won't come close to prem's.

How many investors bet on CDS before the crisis and made a few billion dollars like Prem did. (341 million bet into more than 2 billion.) Other than Paulson and Prem not many others. He understands risk. Can he be wrong? Sure he can, but I am very confident of his not losing with BBRY in the long run.
I appreciate the pro/con arguments as long as they are done in a respectful way.
Morgan is one of the smartest people I have not had the pleasure to meet! His insight is why I read this thread daily along with many others.


Posted via CB10

[mrfreetruth]

Lol you got to love the demented and distorted logic from the cry babies who scream cash burn and yet BlackBerry has kept building their cash holdings. Remember many of you negative wallowing sad people said bb10 would not even happen since BlackBerry would burn all their cash from advertising and product build. Well they built their cash to 3.1 billion from 2.1 billion. Why did that happen when you said they would be bankrupt by now? Oh I see now they will burn through their $6 in cash per share? Lol It's funny to see you waste so much of your time here on CB spreading misinformation. I hope you are at least getting paid for your time since it would be quite sad to waste ones time in such negativity and contempt.

Posted via CB10

[Bugmapper]

Holy mackerel guys ! Tons to read this weekend. Thanks. I'm busy with a flooded basement and all the renos that go with. I look forward to some bedtime reading tonight.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!