[BlackistheBerry]

So, what does the drop in short interest actually mean?

[cjcampbell]

Based on the super low volume and tight price action since the reporting date, don't expect the next set to be any lower. I'd make a wager that it has gone back up since then.

[cgk]

While unveiling the Chromecast smart-TV dongle on Wednesday, Google inadvertently (or not) slighted the two upstart mobile operating systems. In acknowledging the need for a cross-platform service, Google only touted its interoperability with both iOS and Android .

One Google executive noted that "all households" had either an Android or iOS device, without mention of the other alternatives. Presumably, Google doesn't give much thought to Windows Phone or BlackBerry.

The comments are emblematic of the dominance that iOS and Android exert over the mobile space, combined they control 91 percent of the smartphone market . Android is by far the largest mobile platform in the world, while the iPhone 5 is the single best selling device. Given Apple's influence in the mobile world, Google had to offer a hand to its rival in order to make Chromecast work.

There was no such courtesy afforded to BlackBerry 10 or Windows Phone, which each have been fighting to win just a small slice of the pie. Google hasn't had a good track record of supporting either platform, with key apps like Chrome and Maps still missing from BlackBerry World and Windows Phone Marketplace. Instead, Google's definition of cross-platform includes Android, iOS, and Chrome for MacBooks and Windows.

Google's cross-platform: No BlackBerry or Windows Phone | Mobile - CNET News

[Compaqee]

So, what does the drop in short interest actually mean?

My personal opinion - those 20MM shares say, BBRY has found its value point with from their point of view.

I feel like we've found our bottom within the high 8's to low 9's range until something/someone shakes it up (Up or down).

Hoping towards the upside!


Been quiet for a while - busy at work.

Cheers!

[Reed Richards]

Using Yahoo Finance's number for the float, BBRY short interest is at 33% of float (160,837,750 shares short / 485,420,000). These shares were short when the share price was in the $9.20 - 9.30 range. [Edit: just to be clear, I don't know what price these shares were actually sold short at, just that they remained short when the price was in the $9.20 - $9.30 range in mid-July]

What's the thesis for being short at these levels? Seems like they are banking on BlackBerry a) getting no further traction with BB10/BES/Cross--platform BBM, *and* b) burning through its cash so quickly that it won't even be an attractive buyout target. I obviously can't know how much of a negative rebate these short holders are paying to continue shorting BBRY, but if it's costing them 7-10% to keep those shares borrowed, they think the share price will continue to fall, and fall significantly enough to make it worth it the risk of any good news raising the share price (partnership, buyout, better Q2 numbers).

Sounds like they expect BlackBerry to continue to tank very quickly. Anyone have a different thesis?

[Shanerredflag]

Sit ups under parked cars?

Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

How so? The OS has DLNA built in. Chromecast is an accessory, just like the Nexus Q. Was that a nail in BB's coffin?

I wouldn't call it a nail in BB's coffin.

However it is yet one more machine in the ever growing internet of things that BB isn't a part of.

[JLagoon]

Today is the eighteenth day of downtrend with 12.7 million in volume (400,000 less than yesterday). An attempt to drop the stock to $8.97 near the close of the day occurred, but bounced to $9. The stock made higher low, and lower high. Based on the current chart, tomorrow will be crucial to see, whether the stock can move higher. 24 million shorts have covered based on July 15th data: BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com

Bullish interpretation:
It did not make lower low. $9 seems to be a strong support. If it won't make lower low tomorrow, then it will be out of the parallel downtrend channel to make a new trend. It needs to go above $9.05, and close around $9.10.

Bearish interpretation:
The top parallel downtrend channel is still a strong resistance. The stock has gotten pushed down in every attempt to move out of it. $8.50 max drop is still valid. Daily, and 30 minute stoch. RSI will cycle down.

---

This pattern for the past 3 days (including today) seems to be a compacted version of 7/10 - 7/19. Can you see the resemblance? I think, something will resolve in a big way soon, and I really hope that it doesn't drop again for whatever reason. Tomorrow seems to be a crucial moment. I don't like what I see on the DMI indicator (green circles), because it is showing a similar increasing selling pattern. Could Morgan or anyone else, who has more insight share their thoughts, please?

Here's the chart:


30 minute:


Daily:

[Kid Vibe]

Short interest fell for the first time in a LONG time... What does it mean? Who are these shorts and why the **** are they trying to destroy a good company.

[tiziano27]

Google's cross-platform: No BlackBerry or Windows Phone | Mobile - CNET News

Well, I guess Amazon will build their own "AmazonCast" and will screw up google as they did with the kindle.
If Amazon lost the content business is done.

[greyw0lf01]

Bullish interpretation:

Bearish interpretation:

Bullish interpretation:
Down today, maybe up tomm; if BBRY's PR team does some work.

Bearish interpretation:
Down today, may be down tomm if BBRY PR team continues the same old same old

[notfanboy]

Short interest fell for the first time in a LONG time... What does it mean? Who are these shorts and why the **** are they trying to destroy a good company.

They're not in it to destroy anything, they just want to make money just like everyone else.

And if you think about what happened on June 28 when the stock lost 35% of its value? You can't blame that on the "shorts". If anything blame the "longs" for pushing up the stock price through market manipulation or simple exuberance. It's all fun and games until the facts are revealed.

[danprown]

In other news (from slashdot) re infotainment
ABI Research

London, United Kingdom - 23 Jul 2013

ABI Research forecasts that the number of OEM-installed connected car telematics systems will increase from around 7.8 million at the end of 2012 to 46.8 million units globally by the end of 2018, with Linux/GENIVI platforms accounting for an increasing percentage of shipments during the period.

At present, QNX Software and Microsoft together account for around 75 to 80% of the car-infotainment OS market. However, questions remain about the long-term future of proprietary automotive OSes.

“The automotive industry is set for a number of dramatic paradigm shifts,” said principal analyst, Gareth Owen. “The adoption of open source platforms, such as GENIVI is just one example. In this regard, the automotive industry mirrors trends in mobile.”

“QNX is responding by making its car platform more open,” continued Owen. “In particular, developers can now tap into established and innovative mobile-developer eco-systems for Android, HTML5, and Qt 5 apps. With the pace of change in automotive still being quite slow, the mid-term future for QNX still looks bright. Plus QNX has the important advantage of having a tried and tested optimized solution. Hence, QNX is still an attractive solution for a risk-averse automotive industry.”

Although open source software has only appeared in one high-profile application so far: the Linux-powered CUE infotainment system in the 2013 General Motors Cadillac model range, ABI Research expects that Linux and Linux GENIVI-based platforms will slowly displace Microsoft’s Windows Embedded Automotive OS in importance, despite the fact that it too has taken steps to “open-up” parts of its platform.

These findings are part of ABI Research’s Automotive Infotainment Research Service which provides analysis of key developments and trends in the marketplace and quantitative information via its extensive car infotainment database. Updated on a quarterly basis, the database provides detailed installed base and forecasts of the car infotainment market by type and region as well as detailed information and forecasts on Bluetooth penetration in cars, automotive apps, and automotive operating systems split by global region.

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 70+ research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit ABI Research - Technology Market Research, or call +1.516.624.2500.

[Shanerredflag]

They're not in it to destroy anything, they just want to make money just like everyone else.

And if you think about what happened on June 28 when the stock lost 35% of its value? You can't blame that on the "shorts". If anything blame the "longs" for pushing up the stock price through market manipulation or simple exuberance. It's all fun and games until the facts are revealed.

Don't agree with the "no manipulatuon" bit sorry. But the market is a voting machine and so far the majority of thumbs are down. What happened on the 28th was allot of sideways thumb's tipped downward.

But hey...couple better quarters and some good news and they will forget and point those thumbs up again.

Posted via CB10

[ibpluto]

holy cow, FB killing it after hours after an earnings beat. Up 20% after hours!

Likely see a bit of a short squeeze in the AM as well....good for FB holders....wish that was us right now

[Bigbacala]

They're not in it to destroy anything, they just want to make money just like everyone else.

And if you think about what happened on June 28 when the stock lost 35% of its value? You can't blame that on the "shorts". If anything blame the "longs" for pushing up the stock price through market manipulation or simple exuberance. It's all fun and games until the facts are revealed.

Wouldn't the vast majority of shorts be able to dump their shares now for a profit? Why keep holding on to try and make even more if it is a risk to do so. Shouldn't they be ok with the profits they have made already if they sell instead of continuing the risk, especially since the current share price is below book value?

Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

I have a household of 7 living in the US and yet there no I-dumb or Hand-royd devices, but as always we don't count!

Google's cross-platform: No BlackBerry or Windows Phone | Mobile - CNET News

[cjcampbell]

holy cow, FB killing it after hours after an earnings beat. Up 20% after hours!

Likely see a bit of a short squeeze in the AM as well....good for FB holders....wish that was us right now

There short interest is really quite low. I believe it's approx. 1.7% of the float. The volume of the AM trading is already almost that of the shorts. I highly doubt any sort of squeeze will happen.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

Using Yahoo Finance's number for the float, BBRY short interest is at 33% of float (160,837,750 shares short / 485,420,000). These shares were short when the share price was in the $9.20 - 9.30 range. [Edit: just to be clear, I don't know what price these shares were actually sold short at, just that they remained short when the price was in the $9.20 - $9.30 range in mid-July]

What's the thesis for being short at these levels? Seems like they are banking on BlackBerry a) getting no further traction with BB10/BES/Cross--platform BBM, *and* b) burning through its cash so quickly that it won't even be an attractive buyout target. I obviously can't know how much of a negative rebate these short holders are paying to continue shorting BBRY, but if it's costing them 7-10% to keep those shares borrowed, they think the share price will continue to fall, and fall significantly enough to make it worth it the risk of any good news raising the share price (partnership, buyout, better Q2 numbers).

Sounds like they expect BlackBerry to continue to tank very quickly. Anyone have a different thesis?

The vast majority of shorts are sticking around and obviously see lots of room below. I see $8 by the week prior to the Sept earnings call and $7 within 2 weeks after the call.

I will reserve judgement after that time, but the quote below is interesting (investopedia.com):

"companies like BlackBerry seldom enjoy a long, slow descent. More often, there's a point where revenue falls off a cliff (declining 15-20% or more on a year-on-year basis), cash flow turns sharply negative, and things get ugly very quickly"

Is October 2013 that point?

[take99]

Terrible unit also isn�t very descriptive, that�s like saying water is wet.

Terrible unit; why didn�t you return it for the countless points of purchase or an Apple Store for a new device?

Because I was blissfully ignorant the first while, now just trying to get to the end of a contract. Spelled out some of my issues 10-15k posts ago, no need to rehash but this phone is pretty inept at more than a few things. I'm not a big app user so that 'advantage' is not applicable to me.

[rim4ever]

Wouldn't the vast majority of shorts be able to dump their shares now for a profit? Why keep holding on to try and make even more if it is a risk to do so. Shouldn't they be ok with the profits they have made already if they sell instead of continuing the risk, especially since the current share price is below book value?

Posted via CB10

You are assuming that the vast majority of the SI were shorted above $9. Is that really the case? If not, they would be taking a loss instead of a profit if they cover now.

[slipstream89]

shorts arnt idiots, if they all bought back now then our SP will skyrocket and they will lose out on profits. They have to coordinate buys/sells to keep SP low im guessing this is why we've seen some green sessions

Wouldn't the vast majority of shorts be able to dump their shares now for a profit? Why keep holding on to try and make even more if it is a risk to do so. Shouldn't they be ok with the profits they have made already if they sell instead of continuing the risk, especially since the current share price is below book value?

Posted via CB10

[greyw0lf01]

I have a household of 7 living in the US and yet there no I-dumb or Hand-royd devices, but as always we don't count!

Well you can use a laptop as well. A household that large and not one iOS or Droid phone, there’s child abuse somewhere in this... jk!

I just ordered one off Amazon, hoping I can replace Aereo for $8/month (for Bloomberg tv) and 3 months free of Netflix is a nice bonus.

[dusdal]

The price cuts may be doing their job...

Currently showing as 2nd best selling on AT&T.

http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...-surge-831846/

Edit: please take with a grain of salt. Interest only. don't invest based on this, blahblah..

[Soumaila Somtore]

Blackberry and Windows phones, yah and Kindle (4). I have yet to ear a complain. ho yeah fish finder I guess they have an IOS software

Well you can use a laptop as well. A household that large and not one iOS or Droid phone, there’s child abuse somewhere in this... jk!

I just ordered one off Amazon, hoping I can replace Aereo for $8/month (for Bloomberg tv) and 3 months free of Netflix is a nice bonus.