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- Are the other competitors listing that data on their ERs? I know you have to list how you're spending your money and devices or products sold, to include any losses, but do they have to tell everything? What about not listing subscriber information?07-23-13 10:02 PMLike 0
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Edit: I'm also running on 3 shots of Crown since I got used in the mood for it due to an earlier post in the day, so i think I'll stop posting for the night, lol.bungaboy likes this.07-23-13 10:06 PMLike 1 - 07-23-13 10:08 PMLike 3
- Sorry, i'm not making myself clear (I'm actually taking a long walk at 11pm, and you guys are my only company... So just thinking out loud)... I'm referring strictly to unit shipment. Q1 was a disastrous 2.7m sold, just wondering what everyone's expectations are for Q2 given the somewhat positive points for sales I outlined.
Edit: I'm also running on 3 shots of Crown since I got used in the mood for it due to an earlier post in the day, lol.07-23-13 10:13 PMLike 3 -
Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.
The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.
The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?07-23-13 10:17 PMLike 5 - I think the reason BB is being silent is to keep the bashing to a minimum. They know they got beat up at the ER and probably put a zipper on things for a while. They already stated they have a certain number of devices to be released this year and maybe that's enough for them now. I'm just guessing, but when they talk to much they eat crow.07-23-13 10:24 PMLike 4
- Sorry, i'm not making myself clear (I'm actually taking a long walk at 11pm, and you guys are my only company... So just thinking out loud)... I'm referring strictly to unit shipment. Q1 was a disastrous 2.7m sold, just wondering what everyone's expectations are for Q2 given the somewhat positive points for sales I outlined.
Edit: I'm also running on 3 shots of Crown since I got used in the mood for it due to an earlier post in the day, so i think I'll stop posting for the night, lol.
You see, unless BBRY does something truly amazing like bring thin/thick client models to market first, they are not going to experience an increase in sales. The only other amazing thing I can think of is if they find a way to support the Android market place.07-23-13 10:28 PMLike 3 - I think the reason BB is being silent is to keep the bashing to a minimum. They know they got beat up at the ER and probably put a zipper on things for a while. They already stated they have a certain number of devices to be released this year and maybe that's enough for them now. I'm just guessing, but when they talk to much they eat crow.07-23-13 10:30 PMLike 4
- The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.
Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.
The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.
The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?
They really don't have a choice but to partner with an Asian manufacturer to enter the low end market and Asia sales. If not I don't see more than $40 for a long time.
Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!m0de25 likes this.07-23-13 10:31 PMLike 1 - I'm expecting no more than 3 million BB10 phones sold in Q2. Unless the Q5 sells amazingly well, I think 3 million would blow expectations out of the water. Want to know what my Q3 and Q4 predictions are? Q3, 2.5 million. Q4, 3 million thanks to BES related sales.
You see, unless BBRY does something truly amazing like bring thin/thick client models to market first, they are not going to experience an increase in sales. The only other amazing thing I can think of is if they find a way to support the Android market place.07-23-13 10:35 PMLike 5 - The only other ting is BBM going cross platform. That could be huge. But I have no idea how they plan on monetizing that unless it were to bring people from Android and iOS to Blackberry. How will they make money on BBM on Android and iOS if no one comes to Blackberry after experiencing BBM?
And speaking of BBM. It is a HUGE mistake for them to not support it via HTML 5. I pray they did the development in HTML 5 so they can bring it to the desktop also. Facebook and all those other social media apps are more than just smartphones. They also have a web presence so they are on almost any device you could imaging.07-23-13 10:36 PMLike 3 - The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.
Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.
The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.
The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?07-23-13 10:37 PMLike 3 - Dang, that would be bad seeing they just recently fired their last PR team they had for 6 years. If I was the lead for that new team I'd be looking at lessons learned from the last team and not make the same mistakes.07-23-13 10:38 PMLike 0
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http://www.technologyreview.com/news...tum-computing/
If Mike and company win that race, BB will benefit by osmosis at the very least. After all, he is the one that pushed QNX so what if he has a bigger plan? Pie in the sky dreaming, Koolaid with vodka but anything is possible.07-23-13 10:39 PMLike 6 - The only other ting is BBM going cross platform. That could be huge. But I have no idea how they plan on monetizing that unless it were to bring people from Android and iOS to Blackberry. How will they make money on BBM on Android and iOS if no one comes to Blackberry after experiencing BBM?
And speaking of BBM. It is a HUGE mistake for them to not support it via HTML 5. I pray they did the development in HTML 5 so they can bring it to the desktop also. Facebook and all those other social media apps are more than just smartphones. They also have a web presence so they are on almost any device you could imaging.
BBM Is likely just a cross platform ad for BlackBerry for a couple of years. I figure that if you buy a BlackBerry phone then BBM should be free and clear of ads, and if you are on another platform then you either pay a couple of bucks, or you get ads.
Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!bungaboy likes this.07-23-13 10:46 PMLike 1 - You're 3 million sold is about where my predictions are as well. But I would increase your predictions on following quarters based on the following. Corporations are still testing the software (DoD just one example). Once the software proves it meets their requirements they will make the large purchase orders. My organization still uses the Bold 9930 and can't order the new phones until the implementation plan allows that. Once we get the go ahead well definitely stick with BB and order a combo of Z10 and Q10 devices. I'm positive we're not the only one in that situation.
I tried to guesstimate how many employees will have phones under a MDM solution. I figure 16 million users will be under BES in 3 years. Even if 10% of those phones are BB10, that's only 1.6 million phones. I'll be optimistic. The USA population is 5% of the world. So a 20x multiple on 1.6 million phones is a gross overestimate of expectations. Anyway, 32 million BB10 phones worldwide might be under BES. Assuming a 2 year life span, that's 16 million sold to corporations each year. Even if governemnts were to double these numbers, it's still a grim outlook.
And we keep ignoring the sad truth. Smartphones are transitioning into a commodity. They are going to get less and less expensive and margins are going to get crushed. When high end Androids sell for $300 in 2 years time, what will BB10 phones sell for and at what profit margin?
I knew this commoditization was coming but I did not think it would have started already. It's already starting. All this hype on the Motorola Moto X is over a mid-tier phone.lcjr likes this.07-23-13 10:47 PMLike 1 - Yes!!! BlackBerry needs to move to desktop support.
BBM Is likely just a cross platform ad for BlackBerry for a couple of years. I figure that if you buy a BlackBerry phone then BBM should be free and clear of ads, and if you are on another platform then you either pay a couple of bucks, or you get ads.
Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!Bugmapper likes this.07-23-13 10:51 PMLike 1 - For the USA only:
I tried to guesstimate how many employees will have phones under a MDM solution. I figure 16 million users will be under BES in 3 years. Even if 10% of those phones are BB10, that's only 1.6 million phones. I'll be optimistic. The USA population is 5% of the world. So a 20x multiple on 1.6 million phones is a gross overestimate of expectations. Anyway, 32 million BB10 phones worldwide might be under BES. Assuming a 2 year life span, that's 16 million sold to corporations each year. Even if governemnts were to double these numbers, it's still a grim outlook.
And we keep ignoring the sad truth. Smartphones are transitioning into a commodity. They are going to get less and less expensive and margins are going to get crushed. When high end Androids sell for $300 in 2 years time, what will BB10 phones sell for and at what profit margin?
I knew this commoditization was coming but I did not think it would have started already. It's already starting. All this hype on the Motorola Moto X is over a mid-tier phone.07-23-13 10:57 PMLike 0 - Quick reality check.
BlackBerry reported a loss of under $100 Million last quarter. Say BlackBerry continues to lose money at twice that rate of $200 Million per quarter.
With their current stock pile of cash of $3 Billion, it will take 15 quarter before BlackBerry goes bankrupt. In human years, thats just under 4 years.
So regardless of how well BlackBerry continues to do. They're not going to go away any time soon. (though to some people 4 years can be considered "soon")
And with that, I'm signing off.
07-23-13 11:03 PMLike 10 - The other problem is what happens if hardware goes away? With QNX and other small pieces, you are lucky to have a $10B market cap company that has no growth prospects. So ya, a $20/share company.
Unless Blackberry has something truly revolutionary up their sleeves, they are in deep ****. If they intend on cloning Android/iOS functionality there will never be a reason for people to leave those ecosystems.
The silence is one thing. The thing is, they don't even say that they have things in development that are game changed that they can't talk about in order to prevent Apple and Google from copying them. They just say nothing. Talk about being pissed off.
The only thing that can save this stock is for Prem Watsa to come out and say something as an insider. He has not said anything since the Fairfax Shareholder's meeting in April. Way before he would know anything about BB10 sales performance. That's when he said $40/share was fair value. What does he think today?07-23-13 11:14 PMLike 0 -
It's funny, sometimes I think of how my life would be if I had invested at 6 and sold at 18 last year during school... Man o man, I'd be set for the next 5 years or so and be able to do so much more... sigh, freedom. Oh well, I guess things happen for a reason.07-23-13 11:17 PMLike 4
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