[Gekko]

"The reason why 90 percent of investors and fund managers cannot pick stocks is simple: Whenever you buy or sell a stock or bond, there is someone on the other side of that trade, and that someone most likely has a name like Goldman Sachs, PIMCO, or Warren Buffett. There is even something worse than trading with Buffett, and that is trading with a top executive of the company whose stock you are buying or selling, and who likely knows more about its condition and prospects than even the smartest and best-informed security analyst. Trading individual stocks is like playing tennis against an invisible opponent; what you don't realize is that you are volleying with the Williams sisters." - William J. Bernstein

[leafs123]

Man, if I wanted to read quotes from people, I'd google them myself...can we get back on topic?

Everyone here is a grown adult and can make investment decisions on their own. At least prior to the ER, we had a somewhat good level of discussion on actual BBRY stuff. We don't need to have people come on here to "save" us.

[Shanerredflag]

Gospel is a good way to describe it, a load of new comers might think that TA is a sure thing rather than a highly contested pseudo-science. I have a month off and if I can work up the energy might have a look and see if I can track the accuracy of some of the claims made here.

Kind of missed the point didn't you?

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

That uncritical groupthink is good?

[cjcampbell]

That uncritical groupthink is good?

Showing both sides of the equation is critical, but telling people they're idiots and pissing their money away and saying get out and "this pig is going to zero" and all the other comments as of late are not constructive nor do they add to the conversation. There are ways of relaying what one wants to say without being insulting and belittling yet some newcomers choose to dismiss tact and go straight to tossing insults to incite reaction..... I believe there is a term for these sorts of posts.

[cgk]

Oh for sure that sort of nonsense should be Stamped on.

[Shanerredflag]

That uncritical groupthink is good?

Trolling comment aside...why change the subject? You quoted my post...and of course chose one word and used it out of context.
That is what I replied to.

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

Anyway...beautiful day outside...going to go enjoy it.

Posted via CB10

[heymaggie]

Personally it looks like the floor here is 6 dollars based on cash position. Upside is potentially huge, why would you sell now?

I don't own BBRY and I probably won't be buying. Why wouldn't I buy now is the same question as why would you sell now.

The cash value may be $6 but the current plan is to burn the cash in an attempt to save the company. I agree that the upside is huge because the stock can only lose $9 per share at this point. If I see that it's going to $100, I'll just put my buy at $20. No need to be greedy, right?

[cgk]

It's all about timing - I just can't see them dropping below $6 because of break-up value so unless that happens I should do OK

[YangFui]

Excellent points, and thanks for posting that. In reading your posts I have found you to be quite informed and just as important, to have a questioning and analytical frame of mind. I respect that. I consider myself a skeptic and always like to question even commonly held beliefs.

I also agree with the part up there that I bolded, however I find it odd that you hold this forum (and specially this thread) to that standard. On a daily bases, I read many things in here that cause me to shake my head, not because of the "fanboyism" which is expected in a fan forum, but because it is happening in a thread where investment advice is being given and the goal is to make money. There are a couple of examples I listed in the following post, which I'll just link to here: http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...ml#post8853923 I'd be to hear your thoughts on those two things I brought up.

Thank you very much. You picked up on the fact that I'm a skeptic--I didn't think I was that easy to size up. In fact, I'm somewhat skeptical that you are also a skeptic... (Just kidding.)

I think what's going on with me here is that I feel that there are so many great regulars on this forum--really good minds and just all-around good people. We have a good community so it irks the heck out of me that drive-by posters are checking into our forum--post-ER, mind you--to give us all a dose of their "wisdom", as if we need help. I am totally okay with anyone--a regular or a new visitor here--who wants to challenge our "groupthink"; I am not okay when their weapon of choice is misinformation, however nuanced or disguised.

I sort of didn't mind the outright trolls: they were easy to identify (and ignore), and were basically annoying but strangely entertaining, sort of like the cast of Family Guy. But there's nothing I find amusing with this new non-troll breed of posters: There is an insidiousness to someone who, knowingly or unknowingly, comes here ostensibly to grace us with their knowledge--only to post misinformed, inaccurate, or downright wrong nuggets of purported wisdom, replete with famous quotes and financial charts and tables. I and many other people here work hard to contribute good information to this thread and recently the good contributions are getting drowned-out by these new posters. The logistician in me feels that once recognized, not standing up to fallacies when I see them is to be complacent and accepting.

Despite some occasional and welcome silliness here, the fact is that many of us have placed our hard-earned money into a long BlackBerry investment, are taking this investment very seriously, and want to see this company thrive. I hope that my posts help some readers here (especially beginner investors--those who really do want to learn) more readily sniff-out misinformation on their own and perhaps not be so quick to believe and accept especially when it comes to taking implied or express investment advice or general counsel from people who seem credible.

[take99]

Gospel is a good way to describe it, a load of new comers might think that TA is a sure thing rather than a highly contested pseudo-science. I have a month off and if I can work up the energy might have a look and see if I can track the accuracy of some of the claims made here.

I really would hope you have something better to do with your month off....this would be pointless

[cgk]

I have a couple of real long train journeys to break up... plus I'm writing and when I'm writing I like my break activities to keep the analytical bit of my brain ticking over.

[sidhuk]

Ok, Round 2 now.
Lets talk about GSStatcounter.
And i am off to a dog park.
Beautiful day here and it is saturday.

[mrfreetruth]

These people are here to disrupt, demoralize and annoy the tread in an attempt to get people to sell. The question is why do that care and why do they want you to sell BBRY so badly? No one without a vested interest would waste their time posting again and again when it is clear many of them are not wanted here. Of course we know who and what they are.

Posted via CB10

[Aham1984]

Webinar regarding Blackberry/QNX's M2M solution. It seems like they are partnering with Deutsch Telekom to roll out their M2M solution (unless I'm mistaken and this partnership is an old partnership).

Worth listening to for those who don't understand M2M and what Blackberry/QNX have to offer in this space.

Overcoming the Challenges with M2M Device Lifecycle Management Abstract | TechOnline

[take99]

Off to the lake for some wakeboarding, have a great day gents and lady

[cgk]

Ok, Round 2 now.
Lets talk about GSStatcounter.
And i am off to a dog park.
Beautiful day here and it is saturday.

It was a lot of crap when we discussed it last week, I guess it is still a lot of crap this week?

[Gekko]

By your same logic you are part of another group. So you are sticking with you group because it makes you feel safer.

Gekko as much as we appreciate you reminding us that bbry is a risky investment, which we all know, the thread Subject should remain on reasons for and against owning BlackBerry stock.

You haven't once mentioned either. If you think it is such a poor investment explain to us why.

Posted via CB10

i have no do dog in this fight. i buy index funds. but i hate to see you guys lose your hard earned money gambling on a highly risky, highly speculative stock and continue to throw good money after bad. hope is not a strategy. and don't get emotional - it clouds your judgment. good luck.

[bungaboy]

Off to the lake for some wakeboarding, have a great day gents and lady

We could use some "water boarding" around here at times. LoL

[peter9477]

It was a lot of crap when we discussed it last week, I guess it is still a lot of crap this week?

Very likely, but I suspect his suggestion wasn't to be serious.

[kadakn01]

This is not a personal attack, but may I respectfully ask how you acquired your knowledge in investing? The lack of investment understanding demonstrated by your post is disturbing enough that I felt compelled to intervene, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time trying to police this thread from future posts that convey misinformation--I just don't have the time.

Let me be blunt: It's academically irresponsible to post on this forum with an air of authority while getting the basics wrong. You wrote that "risk is defined as permanent loss of capital". I would like you to cite your source for this wrong definition. In reality, risk is the potential for permanent loss of capital.

I then took a good look at the gurufocus site you cited (Prem's results are in a table below a chart called "Total Holding History" here: Prem Watsa Stock Holdings, Investment Philosophies and News -- GuruFocus.com ). You forgot to mention that Prem lost to the S&P during 8 of the past 20 years. If you had "followed" Prem during 2005, you would have sustained a loss of 18%--that, my friend, would have been a permanent loss of capital. Prem hasn't been able to beat the S&P in 2010, 2011, or 2012--that doesn't impress me at all. If anyone wants to experience the returns you cite then that person would have to exactly mirror Prem's trades--not everyone has the wherewithal to invest that way. So while the numbers might appear alluring to a beginner investor, anyone trying to cherry-pick which years or months to "follow" Prem would be doing so at their own peril. The fact that Prem's last three years didn't beat the S&P makes it really easy for me to beautifully demonstrate my point to everyone here that past performance does not, cannot, and will not predict future results.

Moving on to DELL: It's not wise to find a single example (DELL, in your case) and use that as a basis for one's investing philosophy. There is something to be said for sample size, and your sample size is 1. Even if you increase your sample size, for every example you can cite where averaging-down and averaging-up might have worked, there are just as many other examples where it would not have worked.

Finally, you stated that volatility is not risk. True, they're different words and they have different meanings. But when you truly understand the definitions for each you will then appreciate that volatility confers risk.

Thank you in advance for reading...

Thanks for the reply. Let me say that I enjoy reading your posts although we may disagree. I know you are very thoughtful.


PM me if you want to know the answer to your question about my knowledge of investing.

With respect to the definition of risk we are saying essentially the same thing. I have plenty of other examples of companies similar to DELL. This is not the forum for an all out discussion of value investing nor will I convince everyone of my philosophy. That is ok. I am a member of corner of berkshire and fairfax and you can read mine and others posts there.

Regarding Prem Watsa, your focus on the last 3 years (short term) while correct also makes my point as well. In the long term his returns has beaten the market. He isn't a billionaire because he beat the market every year as he doesn't need to. Following those like Watsa and others is in the book by pabrai titled "Dhando Investor"
Buffet has a similar track record. The only way to match the market is index and you are guaranteed to equal it minus fees. I am advocating following him and others for a long time, and look at all their holdings and decide which companies one really understands and buy only those. No one is perfect and so yes not every company that he or buffet buys is a guaranteed winner. However the odds are with those that made their entire net worth from value investing. Buy a dozen businesses that are diversified and be patient and do not look at every year. The margin of safety is the single most important part of this.

The readers can decide which of us they agree with.


Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

I will respond with this from my brainwashed groupthink mind.

Attachment 184437

Wish I could add to ignore list. But since am only using CB10 I can't.

Posted via CB10

[Komoto]

i have no do dog in this fight. i buy index funds. but i hate to see you guys lose your hard earned money gambling on a highly risky, highly speculative stock and continue to throw good money after bad. hope is not a strategy. and don't get emotional - it clouds your judgment. good luck.

Thanks for the concern, duly noted.

Posted via CB10

[Nathan Bael]

Anyway...beautiful day outside...going to go enjoy it.

Posted via CB10

Overcast and lots of rain ahead here.