[cjcampbell]

Whoops - must've missed it. Thanks for the heads up.

If you can't find it, he's got the little green guy as his avatar

[bungaboy]

& we're green...

& we're not . . . . LoL

[bungaboy]

I have a sore gut and a twitch in my left shoulder this morning. It is either going to rain or it is going to hit $8.xx today

[slipstream89]

getting pretty tired of seeing red, when will the bleeding stop?

[cjcampbell]

I have a sore gut and a twitch in my left shoulder this morning. It is either going to rain or it is going to hit $8.xx today

Yesterday's low was 9.10 so we'll have to wait and see for the day. It has gone as low as 9.16 so far and 2 recent quick bounces off 9.19.

[bungaboy]

Yesterday's low was 9.10 so we'll have to wait and see for the day. It has gone as low as 9.16 so far and 2 recent quick bounces off 9.19.

Have to stop watching the SP every freakin minute. If it wasn't for this thread I would stay away for a while. LoL You guys . . . .

[alexhk]

I bought at $16.30 in January and I just made a tough decision to sell at $9.60! Took $6,700 loss. It is hard to shallow but I don't want to lose more.

[mrfreetruth]

With $6 cash the SP today is nothing but stupid. BlackBerry demise is greatly exaggerated. With 185000000 shares short. These guys can not cover with out causing a run. It's amazing how many negative articles and negative posters of BlackBerry on the net. I have never seen such a blatant attack. I can't understand why shorts are not taking profit? It seems they are shorting more


Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

Have to stop watching the SP every freakin minute. If it wasn't for this thread I would stay away for a while. LoL You guys . . . .

So true...lol. I have two screens and one stays work related while the other stays on this thread and stock.

[bungaboy]

On a more positive note . . . . . we're better off that a year ago. LoL

[bungaboy]

So true...lol. I have two screens and one stays work related while the other stays on this thread and stock.

Same here. One for stock and one for emails, excel, etc.

[mrfreetruth]

I only wish I could buy more but I am totally tapped out and will just hold what I have.

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

With $6 cash the SP today is nothing but stupid. BlackBerry demise is greatly exaggerated. With 185000000 shares short. These guys can not cover with out causing a run. It's amazing how many negative articles and negative posters of BlackBerry on the net. I have never seen such a blatant attack. I can't understand why shorts are not taking profit? It seems they are shorting more


Posted via CB10

And for once, I will agree with your post enough to respond lol. However, there can be some low level covering as they just scoop up bits at a time.

[leafs123]

Before, I'd look it at it every sec...now, it's so predictable, even though in a bad way. Wake me up in 2015!

[leafs123]

Called this a few pages ago.

Thorsten Heins hints at BBM enterprise suite | CrackBerry.com

[cgk]

Called this a few pages ago.

Thorsten Heins hints at BBM enterprise suite | CrackBerry.com

Hard sell - we are on office 365 and lync communicator takes care of our needs pretty well - I would think a lot of places are in the same situation.

[tiziano27]

Let me provide some information here.

1. Yes, one license ('CAL' as it's called) is $100/year ($99 to be accurate). There is going to be some 'volume' discount though, for sure.

This CAL is required regardless of whether you use Secure WorkSpaces app or the BB10 device itself. The license fee is the same.
The only difference is that when the company buys an actual BlackBerry device, BlackBerry makes money on sale of hardware as well. On the other hand, when a company buys CAL license for Secure WorkSpace app, BlackBerry still makes $100/year but doesn't make any one-time profit on hardware sale.

2. Margins are over 80%; based on general consensus. I haven't done any number crunching myself. But this is likely to be very close to accurate, as this is just license-fee is just recurring service revenue. Cost of providing service is much lower.

3. 19,000 have installed, downloaded or ordered BES 10.1 / Secure WorkSpace app.

4. 200 / devices / per company is too low. Most big companies have 1000s of employees that get company paid smartphone. I've worked for 4 F500 companies in my life (since 2008) and I got a smartphone paid for by the company (as did thousands of other employees). But use whatever number you are comfortable with. I can only speculate.

My own model would look something like this:

1. Assume 60% of 19,000 companies install/pay for BES 10.1 . That's 11,400 BES 10.1
2. Assume 2,000 licenses per company (which, given my experience working for 4 different large companies, sounds reasonable).
3. Assume $100/license fee per device (regardless of whether this is BB 10 device or just Secure Work Space app)
That gives us 11,400 (companies) x 2,000 (licenses) x $100 (fee) = $2.28 B/year

But wait..there are some subtractions too.
1. Subtract 20% volume discount. That now leaves us with $1.824 B/ year
So, based on my model $1.824 B is going to be yearly revenue.

But wait..there is another subtraction. That is, how much of this $1.824 B is already included in existing revenue of BlackBerry? How much is net-new revenue from BES 10.1/Secure WorkSpace app? I think that's what we are interested in.

So...

Let's assume 100% of these 11,400 companies were already BlackBerry shops. That is, they already had BES installed. And already were paying a service fee. They simply "upgraded" to BES 10.1. But (most likely) not all their employees were on BlackBerry devices. Some probably had iPhone or Android. So, BlackBerry was not getting any recurring licensing revenue from non-BB devices. But now with Secure WorkSpaces app, BlackBerry will gain revenue even from non BB devices.

So, I am going to assume that these companies (already BB shops) already had 75% of their corporate devices as BlackBerry's. That is, 75% of this revenue is already included in the $1.824 B figrue I came up with. And only about 25% is net-new revenue (coming from non BB devices).

So, let's subtract 75% (existing revenue) from $1.824 B. And this leaves us with $456 M /year of additional revenue. If profit margin is 85%, net new profit should be $387 Million / year from non BB devices.

This is assuming only 60% conversion from 19,000 companies. It's very likely that 19,000 is a very very early number and it'll go up significantly in next 4-5 months.

Now, another question is -- when will we start seeing this revenue?

From BlackBerry conference I attended and from their own site, we can see that there is a 60 days trial of BES 10.1 and Secure Work Space app. So, if these 11,400 companies were to convert to paying customers at the end of their trial, we won't see any revenue from them for another 60 days. So, it's unlikely to show up in September ER. But it should start showing up in December 2013 Earning Report.

Feel free to poke holes in this model. Feel free to use different numbers and different set of assumptions.

Good post.

But why do you think those big companies will adopt BES10 for BYOD and not another solution from an established competitor?

Workspace was released just a couple of weeks ago, I wouldn't trust security in a product that new (probably with many bugs), if there are proven alternatives in the market.

[tiziano27]

I won't completely write off what Faucette says but will take it as an over exaggeration. Q4 he had a bet of 300,000 units and we ended up at 1 million. Q1 he had an estimate of max 1.5 million and we had 2.7. There may be some truth to his "checks" but not to the lows he gives. Will have to watch the news today for some verification from either BB (not likely) and/or Phones 4U

I think he said 1.5m sold to costumers, not shipped, that's not far from what was informed by the company.

[cgk]

Anyone able to provide an exact quote from Faucette?

[chrysaurora]

Good post.
But why do you think those big companies will adopt BES10 for BYOD and not another solution from an established competitor?
Workspace was released just a couple of weeks ago, I wouldn't trust security in a product that new (probably with many bugs), if there are proven alternatives in the market.

Work Space, although released couple of weeks ago was demo-ed in February. I saw it in a BB conference back in Feb in Toronto. Select companies were already doing a BETA test on it at that time.

Anyway, that was just an FYI. To answer your question about why they'd choose BES 10.1/ Secure Work Space app. My reason is this: in my model, I did NOT assume any new customers. I assumed 60% were ALREADY BlackBerry shops. So, they simply upgraded to BES 10.1 and with that upgrade, they get capability to deploy Secure WorkSpace to their non-BB devices as well.

My model tried to calculate net-additional-revenue/profit based on their existing BES customer-base. I did not factor in any net new customers at all.

[kfh227]

With $6 cash the SP today is nothing but stupid. BlackBerry demise is greatly exaggerated. With 185000000 shares short. These guys can not cover with out causing a run. It's amazing how many negative articles and negative posters of BlackBerry on the net. I have never seen such a blatant attack. I can't understand why shorts are not taking profit? It seems they are shorting more


Posted via CB10

I expect cash per share to drop to $5 in 6 months time before stabilizing for a quarter then reversing. Sorry but that tax break can not be ignored.

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

I won't completely write off what Faucette says but will take it as an over exaggeration. Q4 he had a bet of 300,000 units and we ended up at 1 million. Q1 he had an estimate of max 1.5 million and we had 2.7. There may be some truth to his "checks" but not to the lows he gives. Will have to watch the news today for some verification from either BB (not likely) and/or Phones 4U

TH's stand on not commenting on every report has to be thrown out the window. They just took a 35% hit on the SP. Time to start refuting EVERYTHING that is not accurate.

And with shorts up....now is the perfect time for Icahn to come in and try to cause a little bit of action. I think Icahn announcing a stake would take the SP back to $12 in a hurry. He would make a killing.

[leafs123]

TH's stand on not commenting on every report has to be thrown out the window. They just took a 35% hit on the SP. Time to start refuting EVERYTHING that is not accurate.

And with shorts up....now is the perfect time for Icahn to come in and try to cause a little bit of action. I think Icahn announcing a stake would take the SP back to $12 in a hurry. He would make a killing.

I hope so, perfect opportunity.

[chrysaurora]

BlackBerry opens Infrastructure for intelligence agencies in India

BlackBerry gives Indian spooks BBM and BIS access ? The Register

They point out, that BES is still secure, but in my opinion it is a PR desaster!

I think I responded to something like this earlier. But let me explain again -

This is about 'lawful' access. This is nothing new. Most countries (US, Canada, UK, Germany, France..and so on) ALREADY have lawful access to BIS traffic.

The way it works is, courts of a country issue a warrant/subpoenea. This is then served to BlackBerry and BlackBerry is legally required to comply. This is how it works in most countries.

Because BlackBerry did NOT have any BIS servers in India, they were outside of jurisdiction of Indian courts. So, how will Indian govt gain lawful access? Well, there are few ways -

1. Go via Interpol or other international agencies/intelligence-sharing agreements (which they used to but it takes months to process a request, and they wanted faster access)

2. Simply intercept traffic flowing to BIS via Indian carrier-networks (which they do for most mobile phones like Android, iOS but could NOT do it to BB data as BIS traffic is encrypted and India does not have technology/resources to decrypt that traffic in real time and then sort through it to find what they were looking for. But Indian govt is able to intercept/monitor data/traffic that is not encrypted)

Most other countries have BIS server hosted in their own country. And hence they are under jurisdictions of courts of that country.

Further, countries like US, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Australia and so on also have technology to decrypt and intercept traffic in real-time.

So, all this does is, enable lawful access in India. Most other countries already have such access.

BES is altogether a different matter because BES is hosted by the customer (company) directly. So, if an Indian company has BES. Then Indian court can simply issue a warrant and get access to that company's BES because Indian companies are already in their jurisdiction.

---
Now, is it ok for government to snoop into your data or not? That's not topic of discussion here. I am not commenting on whether or not govt should have access (lawful or not). All I am saying is that most countries/govts already had lawful access but India did not because of jurisdiction issues on where BIS was (is) physically hosted. That's all.
---

[Komoto]

I must say, you guys know I am pro BlackBerry, but this is be coming tough.

Sometimes I wonder if the reason that BlackBerry don't counter these reports is that maybe they are accurate....

You have to question your investments at some point.

I think we should collectively do some research on the mdm market. Some sites claim bes is the only option worth thinking about it and others don't even acknowledge it's existence.

There seem to be a number of players in the space now. As this is what I am basing my investment, it worries me.

Guys my balls of steel are starting to crumble a bit aswell.

Posted via CB10