[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

I actually signed up to invoke Godwin's law as a result of Compaqee's Nazi comment, but it seems to have vanished.

Anyway, since I have finally signed up (lurker for a while), I have an investment Q:
BBRY lost yet another 1/33 of its stock value today. How low can it realistically go? My guess is a market value of about 2/3 of the current cash value as they are forecasting another losing Q and claim to be increasing spending on marketing. There is also a possibility of writedowns on unsold inventory (hello Playbook) and development costs for the A10 and maybe a Z5. I think that leaves around 1 billion cash. I'll value patents/real estate etc at another billion (low, but fire sales, if necessary aren't known for extracting a lot of value).

So, 2 billion value, half in cash December 2013 worst case.
Stock currently at $9.3 gives market cap of 4.8 billion.
2bill/4.8 bill is around 48%.
48% of $9.3 gives a purchase target price of $4.47.

Call it a buy at $4.50 .

Do you think this will be a safish place for 0.66 million at that price? Even if they have to part the company out or file for bankrupcy surely there will be a good portion of that left for shareholders.n A takeover bid would have to be at least 50% more ($6.75) I am receiving about $650000 (released from a trust fund) at the end of the month. I don't really need this money for anything right now and can afford to lose it. It is in a stupid low interest cash account, but at least it is still intact.
If I could catch a bounce from $4.50 to 6.75 that would make it a million. Would make for a nice home renovation fund summer 2014.

Please, no one mention Nortel.

PS, love watching all the wedges and funnels or whatever people are producing for this thread. Absolutely no predictive power for BBRY, but they sure are purdy.

[cgk]

Seems the drop is related to analyst reports starting to appear saying Q5 sales have been poor in UK - you didn't need to a rocket scientist to see the pricing is wrong for that device - needs to come down.

[Compaqee]

I actually signed up to invoke Godwin's law as a result of Compaqee's Nazi comment, but it seems to have vanished.

The comment was removed due its in appropriate nature. My apologies to all!

Sent from my SGH-I747M using CB Forums mobile app

[take99]

I think our only hopes for a bump this summer would be either a partnership announcement or massive downloading numbers for Bbm. The BGR report (however biased) about the A10 only being dual core worries me. The flagship needs at least a quad to even begin to gain mindshare no matter how well it runs IMHO.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

Even this thread has been taken over by trolls. It's sickening. Buddy who is calling BBRY a buy at $4.50 is a first time poster.

Posted via CB10

Mr. Freetruth, even you must have made a first post at one time. As the stock has lost over 1/3 of its value in the last couple of weeks, speculating on further losses, with rationale supplied, is anything but trolling. Or are only positive predictions allowed here?

Please apologize for calling me a troll.

[shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex]

No he isn't. Just one of the regular haters signed up under another alias. Take your pick. There are lots of them to choose from.

You see my reasoned, on topic comment as hate?
You accuse me of multiple accounts?

Reported.

[rim4ever]

While the short interest went up again to over 184M as of 6/28/2013, it does not reflect the trades on June 28th with over 136M in volume. The key is the "Settlement Date" and it only covers the short trades that had to be settled by 6/28 (if I understand it correctly). Wait for July 28 report and I expect that the SI will have a substantial drop.

--
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
6/28/2013 184,415,558 34,327,981 5.372164
6/14/2013 182,600,339 19,423,612 9.400947

[cjcampbell]

BB_Trader? Is that you my little mud flap?

[cjcampbell]

While the short interest went up again to over 184M as of 6/28/2013, it does not reflect the trades on June 28th with over 136M in volume. The key is the "Settlement Date" and it only covers the short trades that had to be settled by 6/28 (if I understand it correctly). Wait for July 28 report and I expect that the SI will have a substantial drop.

--
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
6/28/2013 184,415,558 34,327,981 5.372164
6/14/2013 182,600,339 19,423,612 9.400947

Really? Ok cool. Are you sure as I was under the impression that the numbers were as of close that day. I don't know so I'm asking in all honesty.

[bungaboy]

And the IGNORE list continues to grow.

[rim4ever]

Really? Ok cool. Are you sure as I was under the impression that the numbers were as of close that day. I don't know so I'm asking in all honesty.

Here is the official definitions from finra, see (2) in particular:

--
SEC Approves Amendments to FINRA�s Short-Interest Reporting Rule

The SEC approved amendments to FINRA Rule 4560 (Short-Interest Reporting). The amendments: (1) codify the requirement that member firms report only �gross� short interest existing in each proprietary and customer account (rather than net positions across accounts); (2) clarify that member firms� short-interest reports must reflect only those short positions that have settled or reached settlement date by the close of the FINRA-designated reporting settlement date; and (3) delete certain existing exceptions to the rule. See Regulatory Notice 12-38.

[Compaqee]

Again all, relax!

Its understandable that more opinions on the negative side will begin to prop up here. Its helpful for us to see the very real potential downside that exists.

@shadowy banger from a shadowy duplex
I think it is very realistic for you to expect ill sentiment towards you given you've come to a very obviously pro BBRY thread. With that being said, I welcome ALL your opinions. All I ask is you not deliver it in a mocking tone. I'm sure many of the people on this forum/thread will gladly appreciate your bearish sentiment. It adds value to our discussion - we all have learned from ignoring what bears say can cost however please be courteous and make it strictly about the facts.

Cheers!

[rim4ever]

Link: Short Interest Reporting - FINRA

[take99]

BlackBerry Sees More Departures - Digits - WSJ

[Compaqee]

BlackBerry Sees More Departures - Digits - WSJ

stinks =( but thanks for the post.

[crackerdoodle]

A couple more BlackBerry (BBRY) executive departures are reported by the WSJ. Sources tell the...
Wednesday, July 10, 6:35 PM ET
A couple more BlackBerry (BBRY) executive departures are reported by the WSJ. Sources tell the paper social networking head T.A. McCann and calendar/contacts app chief Marc Gingras (said to be "the driving force" behind BlackBerry Hub) recently left. Unlike fired U.S. sales chief Richard Piasentin, BlackBerry reportedly "tried to convince both men to stay."

[cjcampbell]

Here is the official definitions from finra, see (2) in particular:

--
SEC Approves Amendments to FINRA’s Short-Interest Reporting Rule

The SEC approved amendments to FINRA Rule 4560 (Short-Interest Reporting). The amendments: (1) codify the requirement that member firms report only “gross” short interest existing in each proprietary and customer account (rather than net positions across accounts); (2) clarify that member firms’ short-interest reports must reflect only those short positions that have settled or reached settlement date by the close of the FINRA-designated reporting settlement date; and (3) delete certain existing exceptions to the rule. See Regulatory Notice 12-38.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but by close means end of day no? And the reporting period was up to and including the 28th, which was er day.

[rim4ever]

...clarify that member firms� short-interest reports must reflect only those short positions that have settled or reached settlement date by the close of the FINRA-designated reporting settlement date...

[Bugmapper]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but by close means end of day no? And the reporting period was up to and including the 28th, which was er day.

I think the issue is the settlement date, which is about 4 days after taking the position. So, shorts made on the 28th would not settle on the 28th and would not be listed.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[cjcampbell]

Thank you. See? I learned yet another thing from this thread. Great value it is!!!

[peter9477]

Sources tell the paper social networking head T.A. McCann and calendar/contacts app chief Marc Gingras (said to be "the driving force" behind BlackBerry Hub) recently left.

Background for those out of the loop on these guys:

McCann headed up Gist, which was a RIM acquisition from February 2011. Gist effectively became the Contacts app and significant related capabilities under the covers in the PIM (for example, integrating your Twitter, Facebook, and other contacts together).

Gingras headed up Tungle, which was a RIM acquisition from April 2011. That one became the calendar and related functionality.

Although it's sad to see them go, and the timing makes for bad optics, it's worth pointing out that this is about the time frame in which one would expect the founders of startups like those to go on to new ventures after they've stayed with their baby through an acquisition. You either get turfed immediately after the purchase, or you're signed up to stay on for a good chunk of time (a year or longer is probably typical).

I suspect they had already stayed longer than originally required but I have no knowledge of the terms of their contracts.

[cjcampbell]

Background for those out of the loop on these guys:

McCann headed up Gist, which was a RIM acquisition from February 2011. Gist effectively became the Contacts app and significant related capabilities under the covers in the PIM (for example, integrating your Twitter, Facebook, and other contacts together).

Gingras headed up Tungle, which was a RIM acquisition from April 2011. That one became the calendar and related functionality.

Although it's sad to see them go, and the timing makes for bad optics, it's worth pointing out that this is about the time frame in which one would expect the founders of startups like those to go on to new ventures after they've stayed with their baby through an acquisition. You either get turfed immediately after the purchase, or you're signed up to stay on for a good chunk of time (a year or longer is probably typical).

I suspect they had already stayed longer than originally required but I have no knowledge of the terms of their contracts.

I'd give a thanks but my thanks button is missing...... again.

[cubalibras]

I agree , the stock action is like a G D Greek tragedy ... Thor called it pretty close . Are the optimistic analist the ones we should ignore ? Are they stealth shorts ? Who knows, but we all know this one will take some time. I wonder when short covering will start and why it hasn't already . I had to jump ship at 11.60 pm er and every time I am ready to hit the enter button to get back in it tanks . Unbelievable ! I have never held any stock other than a heavyweight at ER except this one. I wonder what is really going on because this is way off the chart for what has happened. Morgan, .. Best wishes........

[peter9477]

Do you think this will be a safish place for 0.66 million at that price? Even if they have to part the company out or file for bankrupcy surely there will be a good portion of that left for shareholders.
...
Please, no one mention Nortel.

You already mentioned Nortel, so I don't have to. ;-)

"Safish"? I'd call it safish, but not because of your analysis. If you're looking for a bottom, keep in mind that it takes money to wind up a company, including what would be hundreds of millions (I've read a billion actually) to close out payroll obligations and related things. I think you should discount most of that cash, and a good deal more to boot, if you really want to figure out how low it could go.

Also keep in mind that the further down it goes, the more impact public perception will have on the company's market share, hurting sales even more. It could be a snowball effect.

That all said, I suspect that if I were in your position, where it sounds like you have really "free" money, I'd probably dump half into BBRY and leave the rest as far away as possible. I'd also plan not to check on it very often either... and I probably wouldn't dare if I were closer than 5 years to wanting any of the money.

[dusdal]

Does anyone have contact info for PacCrest? Their general email doesn't seem to pop up on their website. Would love to get some details on their recent sales checks.

The Z10 reviews on Phones4U aren't so glowing. Having said that, there don't seem to be any prerequisites for posting a review.

Posted via CB10