[lcjr]

I wasn't referring to classified. I was more in reference to IT not being your area. I think some people might be taking your posting as "inside" information and giving it more weight than it is due. That's all.

Completely understand that and I agree. Good looking out and I'll be sure to include a better statement of that next time I post something regarding that topic. We definately don't want to create any confusion here. Thanks again.

[m1a1mg]

Hope that didn't come off as rude. Wasn't meant that way.

[JonCBK]

The primary problem with Bollinger Bands are designed to capture a fairly large chunk of price movement, or said another way, the price action is supposed to stay within a range for the most part.

When the price moves outside or those bands... or in this case, completely falls out of bed, the Bollinger bands become meaningless. The bands (depending on the setting of your moving averages) will slowly reflect the new change in prices as it picks up new days.

So there isn’t necessarily a snap back that has to occur within the band because price can do anything it wants... it can drop to $5/share and $6 can become the new upper bounder and $4 can become the new lower boundary.

I suggest looking at support and resistance levels to get a general idea of where prices are going and technical analysis is pretty useless right now.

Sit on your hands and wait to see what happens... this is where you pair the technical w/ the fundamental... event risk coming up.. Nokia’s earning (they compete w/ blackberry at the low end in the same regions) and shareholder meetings...

In my view, Technical Analysis is of very limited use when new and very material information has been revealed to the market. The market moves of the prior days and months were based on different assumptions. Now the Q1 results have changed those assumptions. Basically, the charts have to start over from Friday. I like reading Morgan's stuff, because it is an insightful look into the minds of traders and how the market generally feels about a stock. But you can't look at chart of historical prices to predict non-market future events. In this case the event was the consumer's lack luster interest in the Z10. This lack of interest got fully revealed to the market (though some folks suspected this already (not me though as you will recall I bought in again on Monday morning of last week)) and now the stock price has adjusted to this. In a month we will better know the market's interests based on stock price moves. But for now, pre-Q1 prices are somewhat irrelevant.

[lcjr]

Hope that didn't come off as rude. Wasn't meant that way.

Nope, you're good with me man.

[dusdal]

Street estimates going out to Q115:

Attachment 178282

Cheers.

I see my consensus info on Q2 wasn't as up to date yet. (0.10) is more in line of my expectations but still seems a little high.

I don't suppose there is another screen there that will show consensus expected shipments for next quarter?

[gohan_bcc]

This stock is the biggest **** off ever. It's 2011 all over again zzz

[JLagoon]

I wonder, what Prem Watsa's take on this stock action is. Is this a setup by him, so he could average down? Or something else?

[lcjr]

This stock is the biggest **** off ever. It's 2011 all over again zzz

Yeah, I was looking at this as well earlier. The SP was higher in January 2012 when TH took over. Not being negative towards Blackberry, just looking at the stock price and the progression or degression.

[Gesig Boek]

Nice work, but there is one assumption you are making that can not be substantiated - that Nokia is 75% of Windows Phone market share in US. In fact in US HTC has a much stronger brand than Nokia, so their Windows Phones (HTC 8S and HTC 8X) would have had more impact than elsewhere in the world.

Do you not think it is interesting that Kantar's market share increase tracks a quarter after Nokia's shipment increase, which kind of corroborates my theory. This suggests to me, if you were following Nokia, that their next quarter's US shipments will likely hit a million.

[Nindia]

I wonder, what Prem Watsa's take on this stock action is. Is this a setup by him, so he could average down? Or something else?

Wishful thinking.

[BB Fightclub]

Remember...every share sold out of 200,000,000 shorted pile has to be borrowed and replaced or purchased and replaced.

[Alastor263]

After the Friday rush maybe its good to have some negative user cases on the list too. Just to get rid of the pink glasses and see both sides =D

My company currently has handed out 2000 smartphones for management levels with ~1500 iphones and ~500 BBs, the BB share in the company is slowly shrinking. The colleagues have a free choice what to take. Although somehow they tend to take - if BB - a Storm rather than a Bold, which is quite weird from experiences given in the forum. Maybe its the touchscreen appeal to the average guy. As i heard by colleagues after using the Storm they gladly switch to iphones as they are so cool =)
Since a few months they are evaluating Airwatch as MDM solution, and don't plan to rollout BES (they didn't evaluate this solution). As i'am no IT guy i don't know what they are currently using and don't have any insight by which measures they choose it. So anyway they don't even intent to provide BB10s. Although this might change once Airwatch supports them.

[Komoto]

do you guys not expect the Q10 and Q5 to be more popular than Z10.

I guess the variable is how quick corporates are to upgrade to BES10 and adopt as those seem to be the predominant purchaser of BB phones atm, not the consumer.

[sidhuk]

LoL,
Some times it is wise to take a break. This shell Pass too. Nothing has changed today as a company than it was before june 28th. I am buying more.
Sitting on the sidelines and missing the opportunity, for not being able to buy your beloved stock at the lowerprice adds to the anxiety. It also causes further doom and gloom.
I am on iphone for almost two years now. Still miss blackberry. I use these two apps "lemon" for my receipt storage and book keeping and "sign now" to sign documents. Any one has any suggetions to replace that on blackberry? Sign now i can get away with but, "lemon" is pretty handy for book keeping.
I still trust in the product. And thats the reason am in there for longer time frame (5years). I know people say that 5 years is a long time in tech world, so be it. I will be doing swing trading in between. I am not worried about blackberry as a company. They have enough cash to complete next two years. And as a law of the average, if they have bad days, they will have good days, backed by cash on hand, good solid products. Most phone contracts are done near christmas time. By then, more apps, more hand sets, bes 10, bbm on all devices.
Any large corporation, when making changes to their core communication policy, can easily take year or two. It is not as easy as it seems. First, why change if something is already working and meeting existing demand, just to over come that line can take six months. Then testing, annual budgets etc. it is not a matter of just flipping a switch.

Stock market has no shame, they will change in no times. So will the media. Both of them will only give an umbrella when you dont need one. So for, It is word of mouth that is selling more devices.
Blackberry has to come up with lower priced devices? I dunnu. Are we just after bigger market share for show and tell or are we after making profit? I think there should be a balance. People learn from mistakes, trial and errors, blackberry management team had no idea what would sell or not sell for sure. By now they are in better position understanding this than they were 3 or 6 months ago.

We as retail/ small investors are on the mercy of big players and majority of us knew about it, before we invested. So stop crying and show some balls. Learn from stock market pro's. avoid saying anything bad about the things that you invested in to. I dont know any company going out of business who has no debt.
I hope this helps against these down times.
Any one frowning on spellings or grammar mistakes can go to hell.

[CDM76]

Now, let's make this global and include PB owners ... time for some rewards.
Edit : limited time is mandatory.

I guess a trial first? If it works throw it out there global.

Really what we need is BETTER MARKETING. I hear ppl say BlackBerry us a business device etc. But it is being directly compared to iPhone and Android phones and as such needs to compete on the consumer level.

They have the device. They just need to start marketing it properly to the consumer.

The latest windows tablet vs I pad commercials are awesome. BlackBerry may not want to compete on that level but it is what it NEEDS in order to win the North American market right now. The keep moving campaign doesn't resonate with the avg person.





( yes I know the second one is a dell commercial but it is still a Windows tablet)



Posted via CB10

[greyw0lf01]

I wonder, what Prem Watsa's take on this stock action is. Is this a setup by him, so he could average down? Or something else?

Large investors like Prem aren’t necessarily watching BBRY. He might have some suggestions on what mgmt should do but if you generally think about what institutional investors typically do, they buy and hold. They usually sell when some pre-determined event or price trigger occurs which forces them to think about selling.

Look at Dell for example. One of the largest investors, Southeastern Asset Management has been on the rollercoaster even though they are sitting on huge paper loss. They are finally waking up and being active but the PC business has been declining for a little while now, but it took an activist investor to get them motivated.

We don’t know the cost basis for Fairfax Financial but it wouldn’t surprise me if the company took defensive positions in case of additional share loss so they could be indifferent to the current share activity. Remember, the rich stay rich because they have more tools available, they could have a total return swap on for all we know.

Also, people who complain about the evil “shorts” ought to realize that it’s the longs that make their shares available for shorting.

Below are the current inst holders:

Attachment 178310

Note the insider transactions, shares bought and sold... generally when you are bullish you put your money where your mouth is.

Attachment 178313

Below are the firms that purchased puts (possible hedge or outright bet):

Attachment 178314

Firms who bought calls:

Attachment 178315

[greyw0lf01]

Remember...every share sold out of 200,000,000 shorted pile has to be borrowed and replaced or purchased and replaced.

Shares can be covered @ $5/share or pennies... the people who are short aren't new to this game... you are.

[dusdal]

LoL,
Some times it is wise to take a break. This shell Pass too. Nothing has changed today as a company than it was before june 28th. .

^ ^ This.

I am not a trader, though I very much enjoy learning about it and observing it on this thread. From a value perspective, nothing changed today.

[CDM76]

^ ^ This.

I am not a trader, though I very much enjoy learning about it and observing it on this thread. From a value perspective, nothing changed today.

I respectfully disagree . The buzz is now (again) that BlackBerry is not doing well. That makes ppl dbl think buying BlackBerry devices and hence hurts sales. So yes, something has changed - the positive vibe BlackBerry had created.

Posted via CB10

[greyw0lf01]

Microsoft can make fun of Apple all they want... what does that do for Bbry? If people drop iPads based on those ads, then presumably they are getting Surface devices... and maybe Windows phone.

[dusdal]

I am on iphone for almost two years now. Still miss blackberry. I use these two apps "lemon" for my receipt storage and book keeping and "sign now" to sign documents. Any one has any suggetions to replace that on blackberry? Sign now i can get away with but, "lemon" is pretty handy for book keeping..

I think they are at 130k in the store by now. You can browse everything they have here ----> BlackBerry World - Free & Paid BlackBerry Apps for Smartphones & Tablets

Hope you find something and thanks for the rational post. It was refreshing!

[kfh227]

Oh, those seem like reasonably achievable figures. FWIW, I have 3.4 for Q2 and a (rounded-up) 4 million for Q4 with what I think are fairly conservative bb10 sales.

I'd like 3.5 next quarter but 4.0 by years end would be nice.

Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

Microsoft can make fun of Apple all they want... what does that do for Bbry? If people drop iPads based on those ads, then presumably they are getting Surface devices... and maybe Windows phone.

Was just showing an example of the type advertising BlackBerry needs. The stuffy keep moving campaign is not striking the right cords with avg Joe.

They don't need to make fun of anyone but be more current and aimed at avg person and show bb10's unique features.

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

Wow! $9.81 low so far.

I'm half expecting $8. So I'm in no rush to add.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

I respectfully disagree . The buzz is now (again) that BlackBerry is not doing well. That makes ppl dbl think buying BlackBerry devices and hence hurts sales. So yes, something has changed - the positive vibe BlackBerry had created.

Posted via CB10

Fair comment.

I am curious about the tangible impact of this. Whether a study has been done on something like this.