[leafs123]

@Compaqee

As a new investor (and still one), I used to get caught up with the daily stuff regarding BBRY, whether news or daily SP swings. At this point, I'm looking 6-12 months down the road to see where the company is. Whether the company has fully rolled out its strategy and BB10/BES10 is working, or BBRY has been acquired by someone else. Personally, I don't think the company is going under. There was a great chance of this happening last fall than now, especially with a new platform fully rolled out. Friday was tough and many of us have taken losses, but to me, that is part of the process. If you wanted to get out, you got out with a loss. I have a paper loss but I am not selling any time soon. I see better things from here.

If that's delusional in the eyes of some, then that's fine. Not everyone should conform to the masses and the common beliefs. In the end, we'll either get rewarded for this or punished.

[EvanRitch]

Morning everyone!

A lot of doom and gloom lately on the Nasdaq $BBRY, Stocktalk and stocktwits. Very disheartening. My question to your more seasoned & veteran investors - is holding on to our shares because of emotion or our belief in the fundamentals?

I saw a bear post a couple videos on $BBRY last night via nasdaq

Hope -
Greed -
Pride -


First was about 'hope', the other two about 'greed' & 'pride'.

For the newer investors, I thought these videos were great. Are we falling into this void/trap of holding on when this company could be going down? I don't mean to be a downer of any sort, but because all of you are such great people, I really want to see us all make the most money we can, especially if that means to cut our losses with blackberry and cut ties with it.

I don't plan to sell for a short while, at least until the dust settles and the stock finds its footing and see what the outlook is then. I've learnt my hardest lesson in out of this ordeal so far. That is, to not expect to get a winner every time and diversify!

Would those of you with more experience think it foolish to throw in the towel now and move on so soon, or wait a year and see the shape the company is in after the full roll-out of its new strategy is more or less in place?

Appreciate all feedback as usual! (I have some reading to catch up on this forum, you all make it hard to keep up =P)

Cheers!

Disheartened Long.

One book I read was a mathmatician plays the stock market. What I found interesting was that the stock he owned he kept dropping but he kept buying. Even for me if I saw the stock at $7 is it a great deal? It might be or it might be a sign that it will continue down.

1 lesson I learned was if the stock is on a down hill slide then dont keep buying it as its dropping. Wait till it hits bottom.

[Compaqee]

One book I read was a mathmatician plays the stock market. What I found interesting was that the stock he owned he kept dropping but he kept buying. Even for me if I saw the stock at $7 is it a great deal? It might be or it might be a sign that it will continue down.

1 lesson I learned was if the stock is on a down hill slide then dont keep buying it as its dropping. Wait till it hits bottom.

How did buying on the downhill go for the mathematician?

[Compaqee]

@Compaqee

As a new investor (and still one), I used to get caught up with the daily stuff regarding BBRY, whether news or daily SP swings. At this point, I'm looking 6-12 months down the road to see where the company is. Whether the company has fully rolled out its strategy and BB10/BES10 is working, or BBRY has been acquired by someone else. Personally, I don't think the company is going under. There was a great chance of this happening last fall than now, especially with a new platform fully rolled out. Friday was tough and many of us have taken losses, but to me, that is part of the process. If you wanted to get out, you got out with a loss. I have a paper loss but I am not selling any time soon. I see better things from here.

If that's delusional in the eyes of some, then that's fine. Not everyone should conform to the masses and the common beliefs. In the end, we'll either get rewarded for this or punished.

Thanks for the reply, pretty tough considering the market, friends and the general news has been pretty rough on BBRY. I see this coming back up I suppose, just need to hold on for a lot longer.

I don't plan to increase my position until BB is solid again, until then I'm going to begin diversifying into more stable investment vehicles (less risk, less return ) and hopefully hedge any losses I may make with BB.

I'm going to try and not come here or check out the SP too much for the next little while.

Cheers to a good day folks!

[morganplus8]

What happens if another company comes in and buys 30% of the shares or a large stake in BBRY? This has probably been asked but I'd like to know what happens to the shares I own if say Microsoft comes in, takes what they need and scraps everything else.

Hi W4rrior!

It's not uncommon for a stakeholder to own 30% of a company. The likely outcome is for that investor to gain a place on the Board and to become an important part of the operation of the company. As for legal responsibilities, they have to declare what their intentions were, for buying such a controlling block of the stock. No big deal as many simply claim it is for investment purposes. A pre-arranged deal might be setup with the buyer prior to them going into the open market and purchasing those shares if the Board believes having the individual(s) on the Board is a good thing, along with the benefit of tying up the stock at higher prices. Now what happens after that is anybody's guess as the company still needs to perform. I think we would like to see Prem Watsa buy more shares, not sure he wants to as he stopped short of crossing the 10% threshold, but we like the guy. If Carl Icahn purchased 9.9% of the company, he would demand a place on the board. He would go to the media and start the hype by telling everyone how he would drive value. He is also not so much of a 5-year plan guy and would likely make some serious changes or continue to buy enough shares to control the board. So it depends on who you end up with, even Microsoft would place one of theirs on the Board of BBRY!

[kfh227]

Kfh227,

What are you expecting for revenues?

What level of revenue would you be pleased with?

Posted via CB10

Closer to 3.5m. I'd be happy with 3.3-3.4 for now.

It is nice that revs finally went up instead of down though.

A year from now I'd like it to be approaching 4m.



Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Just a quick humor; I remember in one of Morgan's post, he said that one is lucky to have a 2 - 3% return on his / her portfolio. This board wants a 5% every day.

Well, I could understand the 2 - 3% return on an investment. The 5% we want is what we already had. lol. Right now I'll take a 2 -3% return and not give up or lose that. lol.

[rocdynasty]

Hi Morgan,

I am thinking of increasing my position in BB for the long run. Would like your input, with all these down grades happening, should I wait to purchase another block, or this is one of best SP i will be getting?

Thanks

[lcjr]

Good morning everyone! Not sure what's expected regarding the SP other than some news driving it one way or another. I hope everyone has a productive day and maybe we'll get something positive regarding BBRY.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,

I am thinking of increasing my position in BB for the long run. Would like your input, with all these down grades happening, should I wait to purchase another block, or this is one of best SP i will be getting?

Thanks

Hi rocdynasty!

Sorry but I can't advise you on when and how much you should choose to put into this stock! Nice try! I have an investment in the stock, I haven't sold any of it and I'm expressing myself on this thread. Its best to read, read, and read some more and see if you feel comfortable adding to your position. I for one would like to hear what your thoughts are now so take a moment to let us know what you think of all of this. We are in the earliest stages of trying to place a bottom on the downside, with only two days of trade, I can't tell you we won't go lower yet. I'm looking for support at $ 10.10/shr, followed by a move to the green today and a challenge of the Friday close at some point. That's all I expect to see from this stock today. Have a look at my charts and see if you feel a pattern is developing and let us know your thoughts!

[_dimi_]

Got the feeling we'll soon need to set up a fund to repay Morgan for his services.. :-)

Posted via CB10

[Blackberry_Boss]

With all the doom and gloom around the company, people don't think this company will be around when all our 2 and 3 year contracts will be up. I say BlackBerry is getting they cash up for something great. We don't know what they have planned but from where I'm standing I see all the pieces from a big puzzle coming together. Nobody knows the future but BlackBerry better believe they can't repeat the past.


LETS ROCK'N ROLL THIS AND SELL LIKE HELL!!!!!!!!!

Posted via CB10

[sparkaction]

With all the doom and gloom around the company, people don't think this company will be around when all our 2 and 3 year contracts will be up. I say BlackBerry is getting they cash up for something great. We don't know what they have planned but from where I'm standing I see all the pieces from a big puzzle coming together. Nobody knows the future but BlackBerry better believe they can't repeat the past.


LETS ROCK'N ROLL THIS AND SELL LIKE HELL!!!!!!!!!

Posted via CB10

I see no reason for a company fighting to stay relevant holding this much cash and unable to provide Wall Street with guidance. My gut is telling me that this amount of cash on the balance sheet makes the company attractive in terms of a leveraged buyout. This is just me tanking out of my ***.

[lennyvolvo]

hi ,morgan
thank you for all that you post here,you are the best man in this forum!

[kfh227]

If the inventory build up is for the usa q10 launch, we could get better revs next quarter .

Two quarters of inventory build up has side effects.

I really need to improve accounting knowledge. I understand balance sheets, etc but I need to get better at putting it all together.

Posted via CB10

[EvanRitch]

How did buying on the downhill go for the mathematician?

He pretty much lost everything. He uses quotes like dont fall in love with a stock or just disregard negative news actually its kind of funny as alot of the thing he did wrong I also did wrong haha. Just figured there was no way we could lose last quarter. Because we all figured that we had it figured out. AND even if we were wrong then maybe the stock drops but not 30% that was devistating

[BB Fightclub]

Corner of Birkshire and Fairfax....
Flip through this message board ... shows just how active Prem has been and how close Fairfax and Birkshire are. A few threads on BB.

Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board - Index

[greyw0lf01]

Brad6ford, welcome around !
I liked this because it fits our thread general mood.
But now that we're under screening of - welcomed - critics, I have to write that you must be very careful investing a large amount in a single position. That said, If you followed the basic recommendations bellow (updated to include this particular warning), you shouldn't be in danger .

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

If you're not used to deal with stocks, the following should be your starting point.

1. This is real money. Your money. There's no tryouts nor refunds.
2. You must establish what is your capacity before entering the game. Set it and keep it as an absolute limit (you can add later, depending on your revenues profile). Generally, something like 15% of your currently available and free cash is a reasonable amount. Do not speculate with money you don't own in full (credit). If you lose, don't rely on things like "averaging down" or "buy on dips" unless you have additional cash that fits with this rule.
3. Stay calm. Looking at the stock on a day basis is hard for your nerves. Either good or bad, fluctuations can happen very fast.
4. We are a drop in the bucket, even those of us with 100s K $ in the game are nothing if we compare to the global cap (count in $K Billions)
5. Those playing "against" you have more power, more money and know how the market can react. You don't. Do not use "everyday" logic here. This "game" has its own rules and it takes a while to understand/accept them.
6. One possible approach is to play "long" (counting in years), this particular approach is the one I suggested when starting this thread back in Feb 2011. I personally stick to this approach, as it appears to be somehow the most adapted for rookies like us, engaging tiny amounts and with very limited skills. Be careful about fees/taxes you may have to pay for each transaction: they can ruin your gains easily.
7. Please be aware that if you consider investing in stocks, mixing different companies and types of investments (ex : safe, aggressive, short term, long term) is highly recommended.
8. Last but not least : stay humble and prudent.

Some suggested adjustments to the disclaimer that should be prominently displayed on every page of this thread henceforth:

1. Investing in stocks is highly speculative endeavor.
2. Only invest funds you can afford to lose;
3. Determine what kind of investor your are: high risk, moderate risk, low risk;
4. Determine your investment horizon: less than a year, 1-5 years, longer;
5. When investing, determine what your exit strategy is before hand: are you looking for a 25% return on the upside or 20% downside before exiting a trade;
6. No one is playing against you (this isn�t a conspiracy). Institutional investors will always have more money and thus access to more information before you do.
7. It�s incredibly difficult to beat a broad market index; few professional investors consistently beat the S&P 500 over a sustained period of time.
8. Technical analysis is not a proven formula for selecting investments over any time period and is often the fastest way to lose money.
9. Technical analysis is generally based on historical data (moving avgs, bollinger bands, etc), and thus tells you little about the future... case in point Friday June 28th.
10. Buying Blackberry stock in no way supports Blackberry�s ability to sell additional product. Buying BBRY stock while holding a BBRY device means you are double invested... concentrated risk.

I�m sure there are other items to note but the above captures it.

[lcjr]

Every now and then I get a message asking my thoughts on the DoD issue and if Blackberry will remain a part of the government with all the new BYOD news going around.

Ok, time for some positive reinforcement here. While Blackberry did not win an exclusive DoD contract, they are very much a part of continuing operations and there are numerous articles from the DoD, to include DISA that continue to confirm this. Blackberry isn’t going away, they just need to recover from this last ER. Here’s a few articles from the past that remind us that Blackberry in indeed staying a part of the DoD network.

Feb 28, 2013.
Defense.gov News Article: Mobile Device Plan Balances Security, User Needs
Security and technical implementation guidelines have been developed for four mobile platforms, she said: Android, iOS, Windows and BlackBerry. The goal is to put in place a process that allows for faster upgrades to those guidelines as technology changes, Takai said.

May 3, 2013.
Defense.gov News Article: Officials Approve Implementation Guides for Mobile Devices
“We are pleased to add Blackberry 10 and the Samsung Knox version of Android to our family of mobile devices supporting the Department of Defense,” the spokesman said. “We look forward to additional vendors also participating in this process, further enabling a diversity of mobile devices for use within the department.”

May 9, 2013.
Defense.gov News Article: Security Processes Accelerate Adoption of Commercial Devices
The May 2 release of the Defense Information Systems Agency’s Samsung Knox STIG provisionally allows DOD to use the latest technology as soon as it is available commercially. Officials also released STIGs for the BlackBerry 10, Blackberry Playbook and Blackberry Device Service. The STIGs allow use of accepted devices as part of approved mobility pilots with actively defended mobile device management systems, DISA officials said.

[Kid Vibe]

A friend of mine is a lawyer who specializes in company take overs... I was talking to him about Lenovo possibly buying out or partnering with BB and he was saying that he is hearing rumours of Lenovo actually being in the midst of a potential take over from another company... Now this could be complete BS but if it happens, I'll say I TOLD YA SO!

Although if Lenovo does form some sort of partnership (not a buyout) with BB, I really hope its sometime soon. China is a HUGE market and they probably would rather embrace a Canadian company rather than USA (no offense!). Also, there was a mention of a certain meeting upcoming (Morgan mentioned this a bit earlier and described what is discussed), I really hope Prem says something to shake up TH. I'm sure though, TH is feeling pressure right now as we speak. He seems rather calm and collected though, odd.

Ha, the media is a funny thing, completely focused on destroying a company that has the potential to benefit society and businesses with stronger security and easier work-flow. I'm guessing this is because major hedge funds had BB stocks bought in the 100's and now they just want to short the company and hope it falls to 0 to recover, other than that reason, I have no idea why the hate (unless competitors are paying the media as well!).

The odds, sadly, are not good, and this wounded giant grows weaker with each passing day. Completely writing RIM off at this point is a mistake though — just ask IBM. Or Ford. Or Apple.

Also, here is a good read if you are more in depth about calls and etc...

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Lures Longer-Term Speculators | Daily Option Blog | Schaeffer's Investment Research



Anyhoo, this stock price is a bummer, hopefully the Japanese models I get to see tonight look much more attractive.

[Compaqee]

If the inventory build up is for the usa q10 launch, we could get better revs next quarter .

Two quarters of inventory build up has side effects.

I really need to improve accounting knowledge. I understand balance sheets, etc but I need to get better at putting it all together.

Posted via CB10

Ditto. We'll learn together =)

[greyw0lf01]

jon_stark_28,

It is that very situation that we have today, only in reverse, the stock has spent two days outside the Bands and it needs to be driven back inside those Bands ASAP. This is good news for several reasons, one being that we have little resistance all the way back to at least $ 12.50/shr. One could argue that we have little resistance all the way back to $ 13.60/shr but that would be a huge rally from down here. The $ 13.50/shr mark will also be the centerline of the BB's and so a maximum, best case rally without Carl Icahn would now be around the $ 13.50/shr mark. I see us holding $ 10.00/shr tomorrow assuming the general market holds reasonably well. We than start a climb that gets us above Friday's close and sets us up for a rally. We need to get the RSI = 30 or more, to fill some of that large gap down and to get the heck back inside those Bands. So without much to work with after today's close, I have given you my best guess as to where we are heading. The only way to go higher than $ 13.50/shr prior to Q2 is for some news to come out that makes everyone forget that BlackBerry can't sell phones on mass. So if data shows that the Q10 and Q5 are tracking much higher thanks to BES 10, we are back in the hunt again. A contract with DoD would clearly help, a partnership with Lenovo or Samsung, anything that causes a major shift in the broken down business model throws BlackBerry back into the game.

I would say that with 191 million shares traded and countless options, we have based out here. The breakup value of the stock will not let it fall much further. Even if the general market were to sell-off, BBRY would dive for a couple of hours and spring back much like it did off support around $ 13.50/shr. Let's hope for something that drives the stock up on this reflex rally, instead of $ 12.00/shr lets' try to get higher on this first attempt.

I think we are just about done with margin calls, the volume will dry up and the window for shorts to cover will close very soon, and certainly at these levels. Shorts take the average of their purchases so if they cover 30 million shares they will just as easily buy 30 more at $ 12.00/shr. I don't know if any shorts covered so far, whether it took 20 million more short positions to get us down here, or, whether Prem Watsa was the buyer of all of those shares. The downside is limited to $ 9.00 and the upside is clearly $ 13.50 for now. News trumps everything though.

That's the best I can do until I see the trading pattern for Tuesday. GL

Share price doesn�t have to be �driven back� within the bands especially in periods of high volatility. Some traders sell when prices break through the bands, not buy in hopes of seeing a retracement. If you�re going to talk about technical analyis at least get it right... what's the price action telling you?

[njblackberry]

Broken through $10.10 heading south (10.09 is a bit below 10.10 but anyway)

I think resistance may be at $9.75
In any event, I think it will drift downward with no upward momentum before the AGM on the 9th.

[lcjr]

Anyhoo, this stock price is a bummer, hopefully the Japanese models I get to see tonight look much more attractive.

If they don't, you're really hurting buddy!! lol

[casy1471]

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