[sparkaction]

Would be nice if the SP did not drop anymore. Any chance this gets back to at least 13 anytime soon?

The SP is not moving anywhere near $13 without some positive catalyst from bbry. This will take an announcement that will result in Incremental revenue. Any positive analyst recommendations will be ignored just like prior to June 28.

[JonCBK]

The SP is not moving anywhere near $13 without some positive catalyst from bbry. This will take an announcement that will result in Incremental revenue. Any positive analyst recommendations will be ignored just like prior to June 28.

well I think a move to 11 is possible. but only news of a big uptake in q10 sales in the US could move the stock much above $12. or it will take some ither huge news.

bbry needs more customers. end story. but they won report again for another three months. I can't see the stock moving much based on speculation anytime soon.

but I do agree it got oversold in the last two days. that report wasn't that bad. look at the huge gain in sales in canada! wow.

Sent from my BlackBerry Runtime for Android Apps using Tapatalk 2

[Kid Vibe]

Would be nice if the SP did not drop anymore. Any chance this gets back to at least 13 anytime soon?

there will have to be some sort of news IMO... not sure when or what it will be... I can't see this SP popping up anytime soon without a significant announcement. Lets give it a few weeks... I just don't want to go below 10.

[_dimi_]

Maybe we'll see BBRY rise on the good ol' takeover rumour trick :-) I'd much rather prefer:

- Vote of confidence from Prem Watsa
- Monthly progress on their BES10 roll-out

No need to see any more # of their BB10 shipments until Q2 ER..

Posted via CB10

[tmb2013]

This has been some great discussion and analysis, but let's get back to the stock price at hand. Morgan, what's your take on the sp hanging on to 10 so easily today? Shorts covering their profits ... I think we're in a strange place here. The stock can't go much lower than 8, so how much more could they make really? If they panic cover, the sp will jump significantly. If the company is bought out the sp will grow a lot causing some covering by the shorts making it go higher. Can you or anyone else explain how they could get out of this deep hole? And don't say that the stock could be lower ... 6 or 5 or 4 dollars. Bbry is worth so much more than where it's even at today ... IMHO

Why do you think the share price cannot go much below $8??

It can go as low as zero. All it takes is more sellers than buyers.

[Bugmapper]

Why do you think the share price cannot go much below $8??

It can go as low as zero. All it takes is more sellers than buyers.

Zero, really ? This week or next?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[morganplus8]

This has been some great discussion and analysis, but let's get back to the stock price at hand. Morgan, what's your take on the sp hanging on to 10 so easily today? Shorts covering their profits ... I think we're in a strange place here. The stock can't go much lower than 8, so how much more could they make really? If they panic cover, the sp will jump significantly. If the company is bought out the sp will grow a lot causing some covering by the shorts making it go higher. Can you or anyone else explain how they could get out of this deep hole? And don't say that the stock could be lower ... 6 or 5 or 4 dollars. Bbry is worth so much more than where it's even at today ... IMHO

jon_stark_28,

I'll do the best that I can to explain to board where we are even though we haven't developed a base for this chart pattern. Here is where we are as of the end of trading today:



As you can see ,we traded outside that multi-month Pennant Formation, to the downside. This aborted a huge potential pay day to the upside and the move we saw on Friday was what could have happened to the upside if the company had delivered better news. That's what happens when you leave a Pennant Formation, it is powerful stuff. I have drawn a support line solely based upon the action of the stock on Friday and today which seemed to follow my prediction that we would drop briefly today, put in the low and use Friday's low of the panic sell-off as our new exhaustion support level. I have to stress that this support level isn't rock solid this early in the turn around. We can go lower here, but, there are some positive things happening now. We have the RSI (14) = way oversold on a short-term basis. This can be corrected in two ways, a sudden rally or a long period of trading sideways. Either one will draw the indicator back to a flat line effect. The lines above the support line are some of the possible first level rally points that we could easily get to this week. Assuming that tomorrow, we find support above $ 10.00/shr thus making a higher low, we are very likely to close in the green and begin to work off that huge drop. I can see us working our way higher to around $ 12.50/shr in the near-term and possibly $ 13.60/shr as a major high for the next while. Because $ 13.50/shr was such huge support for us for much of this year, it now becomes resistance on the way back up.


The next chart is the same period with Bollinger Bands on top, here, we have two periods, one is in late January when we rallied so hard and fast that we broke outside the Bands for a day or two and created a 52 week high. When that happened, the BB's hammered the stock and drove it back down into the bands where it belongs:



It is that very situation that we have today, only in reverse, the stock has spent two days outside the Bands and it needs to be driven back inside those Bands ASAP. This is good news for several reasons, one being that we have little resistance all the way back to at least $ 12.50/shr. One could argue that we have little resistance all the way back to $ 13.60/shr but that would be a huge rally from down here. The $ 13.50/shr mark will also be the centerline of the BB's and so a maximum, best case rally without Carl Icahn would now be around the $ 13.50/shr mark. I see us holding $ 10.00/shr tomorrow assuming the general market holds reasonably well. We than start a climb that gets us above Friday's close and sets us up for a rally. We need to get the RSI = 30 or more, to fill some of that large gap down and to get the heck back inside those Bands. So without much to work with after today's close, I have given you my best guess as to where we are heading. The only way to go higher than $ 13.50/shr prior to Q2 is for some news to come out that makes everyone forget that BlackBerry can't sell phones on mass. So if data shows that the Q10 and Q5 are tracking much higher thanks to BES 10, we are back in the hunt again. A contract with DoD would clearly help, a partnership with Lenovo or Samsung, anything that causes a major shift in the broken down business model throws BlackBerry back into the game.

I would say that with 191 million shares traded and countless options, we have based out here. The breakup value of the stock will not let it fall much further. Even if the general market were to sell-off, BBRY would dive for a couple of hours and spring back much like it did off support around $ 13.50/shr. Let's hope for something that drives the stock up on this reflex rally, instead of $ 12.00/shr lets' try to get higher on this first attempt.

I think we are just about done with margin calls, the volume will dry up and the window for shorts to cover will close very soon, and certainly at these levels. Shorts take the average of their purchases so if they cover 30 million shares they will just as easily buy 30 more at $ 12.00/shr. I don't know if any shorts covered so far, whether it took 20 million more short positions to get us down here, or, whether Prem Watsa was the buyer of all of those shares. The downside is limited to $ 9.00 and the upside is clearly $ 13.50 for now. News trumps everything though.

That's the best I can do until I see the trading pattern for Tuesday. GL

[Tinomane]

Is anyone here going to the AGM? I wonder if it's just going to be another *** kissing event or if Heins and MGMT will be chewed out by someone there?

BBRY's investor relations is probably the worst I've ever seen for a company. Except for that one incident where they threatened legal action on that Z10 return story, they seem like they haven't done anything. Not only have they done nothing, but I feel like they have hustled the shareholders by making it seem bb10 phones were selling better than they were and not providing a profit warning before earnings.

I hope someone gets on Heins' case and doesn't accept his usual "fluff" answers. It's so incredibly frustrating bc for once BBRY has solid products, but they don't have the balls to attack competitors or the stock bears/analysts. Playing nice and putting out generic ho-hum commercials isn't working and someone needs to tell the management that.

[jhill396]

Just got my Z10 today. Great phone. But bbry does need to REALLY step up its app game. It's pathetic. Such a huge part in the industry today and their apps are sub par. iphone twitter blows bbry twitter out of the water.

[Komoto]

Morgan,

Just wanted your opinion.

I like the products that BlackBerry have made, I think BlackBerry 10 has got a lot of potential.

In my opinion I think the figures released for Q1 were fine, I think they have just fallen victim to the pre earnings hype.

My three main areas of concern are:

I don't like the fact that they will be giving less information in the future reports. To me this just sounds like they are trying to hide stuff as they know it will not look good. As an investor this makes me uneasy, what is your take on it?

Secondly, it seems that there is a real risk that they may not be able to successfully execute the full turn around.

In the past I did not have this as a concern. I can see the market is highly competitive and this is creating a smaller time horizon in which to execute in.

Thirdly, part of the issue with relying on the enterprise market is that you have to fit into their upgrade cycle, which means that BlackBerry 10 sales will be slower. On top of this, as BES10 is now not the only mdm solution the large time horizon allows other players to come into this space.

I think BlackBerry has become primarily an MDM play, which begs the question, do they still dominate this space? If I am a serious business, would I consider anyone else?

I would be interested to hear from anyone on these areas...

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Brad6ford, welcome around !
I liked this because it fits our thread general mood.
But now that we're under screening of - welcomed - critics, I have to write that you must be very careful investing a large amount in a single position. That said, If you followed the basic recommendations bellow (updated to include this particular warning), you shouldn't be in danger .

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

If you're not used to deal with stocks, the following should be your starting point.

1. This is real money. Your money. There's no tryouts nor refunds.
2. You must establish what is your capacity before entering the game. Set it and keep it as an absolute limit (you can add later, depending on your revenues profile). Generally, something like 15% of your currently available and free cash is a reasonable amount. Do not speculate with money you don't own in full (credit). If you lose, don't rely on things like "averaging down" or "buy on dips" unless you have additional cash that fits with this rule.
3. Stay calm. Looking at the stock on a day basis is hard for your nerves. Either good or bad, fluctuations can happen very fast.
4. We are a drop in the bucket, even those of us with 100s K $ in the game are nothing if we compare to the global cap (count in $K Billions)
5. Those playing "against" you have more power, more money and know how the market can react. You don't. Do not use "everyday" logic here. This "game" has its own rules and it takes a while to understand/accept them.
6. One possible approach is to play "long" (counting in years), this particular approach is the one I suggested when starting this thread back in Feb 2011. I personally stick to this approach, as it appears to be somehow the most adapted for rookies like us, engaging tiny amounts and with very limited skills. Be careful about fees/taxes you may have to pay for each transaction: they can ruin your gains easily.
7. Please be aware that if you consider investing in stocks, mixing different companies and types of investments (ex : safe, aggressive, short term, long term) is highly recommended.
8. Last but not least : stay humble and prudent.

[The Selected Fruit]

Hello guys!

What a Friday that was! I moved into a new house and was given a new role in the voluntary organisation which I am involved with. Talk about stress. And BBRY!! WTF was that all about?

I had a quick scan through the results. Surprised by the sales numbers. Forward guidance was surprising as well. Think they may have to revisit price points for Q5 which is out now.

I know you Canadians will not thank me for saying this but could BlackBerry evolve into a software only company? They are the 'Security' brand.

This is all 'back of the envelope' scribbling; from the top of my head, Apple is down by 40% from its peak and Samsung is down by 30%(?) this year. Google? Powering ahead as a software company. The Far East are flooding the markets with cheap imitations of 'branded' phones targeting untapped markets.

I said it before but I am holding BBRY stock until September at the least because I want to see Q10 numbers, future devices and the latest view on the MDM. Also want to know about possible licencing tie-ups in the near future.

Finally, massive overreaction on the SP.

So busy atm, got to go now. Will be back next week. Take care folks!

[MrBurns2U]

BlackBerry launches exchange scheme to push Z10 sales | NDTV Gadgets

[Superfly_FR]

BlackBerry launches exchange scheme to push Z10 sales | NDTV Gadgets

Now, let's make this global and include PB owners ... time for some rewards.
Edit : limited time is mandatory.

[world traveler and former ceo]

like this move by Blackberry to get the z10 out ..especially to loyal bb users in emerging countries like India!!!! ...

[cgk]

Got to hit margins hasn't it? Surely a reaction to slow movement of inventory - I would think this was in place before the EC, so when Heins was warning about another bad quarter to come I wonder if he was trying to start building a narrative around the hit they will take to reduce inventory?

[Ribes Nigrum]

I've followed this thread for a while. It is very vibrant and informative. I'm also a shareholder even after Friday. Got in last year, after the stock was around $ 7.

The trade up program has been around for some time now. Since BBOS7, I guess. It's not new, just click on the BBRY website.

Posted via CB10

[Ribes Nigrum]

I just checked, PB is part of the trade up program.

Posted via CB10

[crackerdoodle]

BlackBerry death may be slow, drawn out - Therese Poletti's Tech Tales - MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — It’s not dead or sold, but many bearish investors are now expecting a long, drawn-out death for the pioneer smartphone maker BlackBerry Inc.

[crackerdoodle]

2 more downgrades
CIBC 20 to 14 speculative
National bank 10 to 8 underperform

[Kid Vibe]

**** downgrades.

Earlier in this thread, I read that Blackberry may end up turning out to be like the SEGA of the mobile world... I found this to be quite an interesting comparison.

The SEGA dreamcast came out as the first 128 bit system and was to rival the PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube. Although the success was moderate, SEGA eventually had to give up making hardware and focus completely on software. Now their games can be found on other platforms... This has turned out to be a wise choice as SEGA just couldn't keep up with the big 3. Long gone were the glory days of the Genesis and a new industry was about to take place.

The difference I see with BB is that they are much better at holding cash and what they do with their money. SEGA for one, spent a fortune on certain titles (Shenmue) and did not get the return they had hoped for. Also, SEGA dreamcast lacked software support from big companies such as EA. BB on the other hand is gaining support from different industries (healthcare, automotive, etc...). Lets hope BB can still make a push in the hardware scheme of things and take off with their BES10! Sure SEGA had Sonic in their arsenal, but BB has security!

[EvanRitch]

**** downgrades.

Earlier in this thread, I read that Blackberry may end up turning out to be like the SEGA of the mobile world... I found this to be quite an interesting comparison.

The SEGA dreamcast came out as the first 128 bit system and was to rival the PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube. Although the success was moderate, SEGA eventually had to give up making hardware and focus completely on software. Now their games can be found on other platforms... This has turned out to be a wise choice as SEGA just couldn't keep up with the big 3. Long gone were the glory days of the Genesis and a new industry was about to take place.

The difference I see with BB is that they are much better at holding cash and what they do with their money. SEGA for one, spent a fortune on certain titles (Shenmue) and did not get the return they had hoped for. Also, SEGA dreamcast lacked software support from big companies such as EA. BB on the other hand is gaining support from different industries (healthcare, automotive, etc...). Lets hope BB can still make a push in the hardware scheme of things and take off with their BES10! Sure SEGA had Sonic in their arsenal, but BB has security!

The Dreamcast thing actually makes more sense to me, after your post.

You talked about Sega not having EA Sports, but you can compare that to BB not having Instagram or Netflix.

Dreamcast was out before the PS2 and Xbox where BB10 is considered late. Its not a bash at all. Im all about QWERTY and figure if I had to get a new phone, it would be the Q1. It doesnt change my view that even with a few good products they still might not be able to compete

[w4rrior]

What happens if another company comes in and buys 30% of the shares or a large stake in BBRY? This has probably been asked but I'd like to know what happens to the shares I own if say Microsoft comes in, takes what they need and scraps everything else.

[Compaqee]

Morning everyone!

A lot of doom and gloom lately on the Nasdaq $BBRY, Stocktalk and stocktwits. Very disheartening. My question to your more seasoned & veteran investors - is holding on to our shares because of emotion or our belief in the fundamentals?

I saw a bear post a couple videos on $BBRY last night via nasdaq

Hope -
Greed -
Pride -


First was about 'hope', the other two about 'greed' & 'pride'.

For the newer investors, I thought these videos were great. Are we falling into this void/trap of holding on when this company could be going down? I don't mean to be a downer of any sort, but because all of you are such great people, I really want to see us all make the most money we can, especially if that means to cut our losses with blackberry and cut ties with it.

I don't plan to sell for a short while, at least until the dust settles and the stock finds its footing and see what the outlook is then. I've learnt my hardest lesson in out of this ordeal so far. That is, to not expect to get a winner every time and diversify!

Would those of you with more experience think it foolish to throw in the towel now and move on so soon, or wait a year and see the shape the company is in after the full roll-out of its new strategy is more or less in place?

Appreciate all feedback as usual! (I have some reading to catch up on this forum, you all make it hard to keep up =P)

Cheers!

Disheartened Long.

[morganplus8]

Morgan,

In my opinion I think the figures released for Q1 were fine, I think they have just fallen victim to the pre earnings hype.

My three main areas of concern are:

I don't like the fact that they will be giving less information in the future reports. To me this just sounds like they are trying to hide stuff as they know it will not look good. As an investor this makes me uneasy, what is your take on it?

Secondly, it seems that there is a real risk that they may not be able to successfully execute the full turn around.

In the past I did not have this as a concern. I can see the market is highly competitive and this is creating a smaller time horizon in which to execute in.

Thirdly, part of the issue with relying on the enterprise market is that you have to fit into their upgrade cycle, which means that BlackBerry 10 sales will be slower. On top of this, as BES10 is now not the only mdm solution the large time horizon allows other players to come into this space.

I think BlackBerry has become primarily an MDM play, which begs the question, do they still dominate this space? If I am a serious business, would I consider anyone else?

Posted via CB10

Komoto!

I can give you my personal opinion but please don't trade on it! I agree, we got caught up in the hype and paid for that. When news came out about the Q1 results the bears were all over it dropping the stock hard as we stood there flat footed. The media ran with it by looking at the price of the stock and creating the most drama around that direction. Was the news really that bad? I don't think so, they missed on their earnings projection by a couple of pennies. But it didn't matter, the bears took control of the situation and made a day of it. I agree, when you look at the chart for Friday, we dropped to a predetermined price on the stock and traded within a tight range all day. There were hours when the stock didn't move more than 10 cents. That's control by one group over another. Monday's trade was the same thing, a very tight range for this stock all day. That's why I think it was a well planned raid that netted what they wanted which was weak hands and margin calls.

Your point about less disclosure, I feel they delivered this change so poorly that the market is once again left to decide for itself; "what's their motivation". You aren't alone in thinking they are trying to hide something because the bears and the media are pounding that theme in everyone's head now. I will give them the benefit of believing that the old way of accounting for subs no longer works. They need a formula that makes far more sense due to the change in the "customer makeup". I get that. But the subs number is important to us until such time as "other phones/products" are an important part of the mix. They come across as trying to take away that nugget that the bears like to flaunt as a reason to claim that BBRY is going bankrupt. To be realistic, wouldn't you want to be able to tell shareholders that, " we now have 9 million "other phones" in the system who are paying customers to BBRY". Then might be a better time to convince everyone that the old formula stinks. I personally would want to hear about that revenue base and what it means to BBRY, so they would hook me on that change. As for BES 10, I also want to know the number of "other phones/products" attached to BES 10. In other words, more data.

In terms of risk, I see BBRY as 85% likely to continue to sell phones along with software security packages. I see hardware as an important part of the formula but it might not look the way it does now. They could be reduced to 2 - 3 phones at the most. They might have to partner up to make that work as well. We will soon find out if it is important to the USA that a phone build for secure use should be manufactured outside of China. If it doesn't matter to the USA if their security is on the hardware level is controlled by China, then BBRY can be sold at anytime to anyone. It's that simple. North America can not tell BlackBerry to limit its suitors and then turn around and not support the brand within Government. We need to define what National interests are, is it iPhones for everyone ..... fresh from Foxconn, or is it BlackBerry? Can you say, "we want to use the cheapest MDM program out there", and cherry pick the phone company? Why should they not support the phone company they are asking to restrict? Harper can't tell BB to ignore working with Lenovo if they aren't prepared to make BB their number one source for secure communication. Something has to give here and we will find out if it matters whether BB is sold to Lenovo or not.

We both tend to agree, MDM is the future for BlackBerry, they appear to be the best at it and have their own dedicated servers which is a mixed blessing now. BES 10 is slow to start (just launched), I see huge potential there, my friend on the weekend said his large law firm rolled it out complete with 100's of new phones and they believe there was no real competition. That is a small take on a big enterprise market but it did make me feel good about BB's prospects. Business loves Hub, Peek and Flow and Balance along with the Brand name and battery life. He hasn't had an issue with his phone nor does he care about the app store as he has everything he wants now. His wife has the iPhone 5 and loves her phone too.

In closing, I don't think we stood a chance this Q, we were up against the wall on so many unknowns and the company didn't bother to foresee any of the issues that would arise in this Q. They simply reported as per the norm and let the bears run with it. Now the only question remaining for me is who put the floor on the stock on Friday? I personally think the stock is now as cheap as it was at $ 6.22/shr back in Sept/2012. I'm not telling people to buy it because of the concerns you have stated but I feel we can build from here and need to be patient enough to see how Q10/Q5 turn out along with how well BES 10 and BBM Channels turn consumers our way. Lastly, we will know how committed Governments are in North America to keeping BlackBerry out of the hands of the Chinese.

Thanks for the questions and your thoughts. I hope others jump in too.