[Shanerredflag]

I agree with you, the launch of BlackBerry as a new brand, was a terrible failure and we should have known this when they fired their PR team of 16 years. All of this falls on Heins. Aside from this statement, I feel that BB did not announce how many phones they expected to sell, rather they talked about breakeven for Q1 and the analysts ran with this bit of information and made a monster out of it. In the end, the company didn't miss by much at all, you can't look at handsets because they were never mentioned, you have to look solely at "breakeven" and how you get there. They didn't pre-announce anything because they didn't have the data skewed until Venezuela decided not to pay, There went $ 72 million or almost $ .14/shr of revenue, or breakeven out the window. The only thing I don't like is being told that Q2 is breakeven/loss too! Now that hurts. I understand it is too difficult for them to do staggered launches around the world and try to factor in both revenues and EPS. Fine.

As for the TA levels, that gap needs to be filled, the RSI is too low and the Bollinger Bands aren't outside the trading range of the stock. While I didn't produce a chart to suggest where we begin this leg of the rally, at 185,000,000 shares, we are close to a bottom here. Today we are back to weak volumes, the margin calls that are activated at 11:00AM, 2:00 PM and 3:00 PM are largely behind us now. So there is this rule that you don't buy into a change in the trend for 3 days. Tomorrow we should see the beginnings of a base made and the start of a technical bounce in the stock. I would like to see us close around $ 10.25/shr or higher today.

10.29 close ...well done and thanks again for all the work on this M8. People (some) are a funny bunch, always looking to point a finger or play hindsight QB, not to worry...many many appreciate the help.

Posted via CB10

[JonCBK]

Hey all, I'm sure this has been answered many times but when did Q1 end and when was the q10 released first?

Q10 was not released in the US during Q1. It was out in Canada and the UK for about a month.

[tiziano27]

Good or bad, it is part of the benefits doing business in canada. As each country has their tax rates different than the others, same way incentives are unique too.
For example: apple keeps large some of their earnings over seas to avoid US taxes. Does that mean that apple's bottom line bad? No i dont think so. I wouldnt look at it as a negative entry.

But investors should understand how this works. How can you estimate earnings or cash flow if you don't understand those $600 million.
Where do they come from? Losses, investment in technology, any investment that BlackBerry does qualifies?
How much will BlackBerry generate this FY?
When can you convert it into cash? At the end of the FY or any moment?

[sidhuk]

But investors should understand how this works. How can you estimate earnings or cash flow if you don't understand those $600 million.
Where do they come from? Losses, investment in technology, any investment that BlackBerry does qualifies?

How much will BlackBerry generate this FY?
When can you convert it into cash? At the end of the FY or any moment?

Fare enough,
Here is the link
Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) Tax Incentive Program
And one applies for it at the end of a finacial year.

[Zarpan]

They had $597 million in “Income taxes receivable” in February, $33 in May. So they received $564 in cash from the Canadian government in the last quarter?

The “Income taxes receivable” item grew during the last fiscal year and became cash the last quarter. So the next quarter you count with $564 less in the cash flow from operating activities. That probably means strongly negative cash flow for q2.

If the Canadian government is pumping $597 million per year or more into the company as tax benefits, that means the core business sucks.

$597 million is 1.14 EPS.

If someone could explain this, that would be nice.

There's several components.

One is that they've reported an operating loss in some of their past quarters, which means they can recover some of the past taxes that they've paid. So basically the Canadian government is returning some of the money that BlackBerry paid in taxes before.

Two is the R&D credits which allows them to recoup some of their R&D spending. I think that part has been estimated at $100-150 million per year.

Three is that they purchased a lot of intangible assets during the past which are being amortized now and are treated as an expense for income statement purposes and tax returns despite not affecting current cash flow. I think they purchased $1.4 billion in intangible assets and plant and property in FY2013 and had $1.9 million in amortization.

Breakeven in operations (excluding the effects of amortization and capital expenditures)
Spend $1.4 billion on intangible assets and plant and property.
Have $1.9 billion in amortization.
Results in a reported loss of $500 million.

At say 30%, the reported loss of $500 million would allow you to recoup $150 million in past taxes.

There are an additional $150 million in R&D tax credits.

Hence, you'd have $300 million in positive cash flow despite being operationally breakeven and reporting a loss of $500 million.

I don't know how BlackBerry's capital expenditures vs. amortization expense will play out next quarter, which will have a significant effect on the cash flow outcome.

[Zarpan]

But investors should understand how this works. How can you estimate earnings or cash flow if you don't understand those $600 million.
Where do they come from? Losses, investment in technology, any investment that BlackBerry does qualifies?
How much will BlackBerry generate this FY?
When can you convert it into cash? At the end of the FY or any moment?

I *think* they can get it at the end of the FY only, although I'm really not sure about that.

Here's a scenario roughly based on last quarter, with Venezuelan service revenues included. I've done a lot of rounding though, so it won't be entirely accurate.

Revenue: $3.15 billion
Cost of sales + operating expenses (excluding amortization): $2.85 billion
Amortization: $400 million
EBIT: $100 million
Tax Loss Recovery: $30 million
R&D Credits: $30 million
Net Loss: $40 million

Increase in Tax Receivables: $60 million

Cash flow during the quarter = $300 million minus expenditures on plant & property plus intangible assets.
If those purchases are zero, then cash flow would be positive $300 million even without receiving the taxes receivable until next year. If those expenditures are $500 million, then cash flow would be negative $200 million.

[dusdal]

Channel check.
Anecdotal ? Well ... Think inventory. Either ways , you know mine.
http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...3/#post8742550

If what we are seeing elsewhere holds true, we 'may' see an uptick in France by the end of July. Hope so.

Get selling Superfly!

[crackerdoodle]

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) to Further Deteriorate: CLSA
Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) to Further Deteriorate: CLSA

[dusdal]

Below is the data from last year for smartphone market sizes per country. France would be a great country to get some market penetration.

COUNTRY . . . POPULATION . . . SMARTPHONES . . . SMARTPHONES PER CAPITA

Hong Kong . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%

(Note: Singapore and Macau track very close to Hong Kong)

Sweden . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%

(Note: Finland, Norway, Denmark and Iceland track very close to Sweden)

Australia . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72%

(Note: New Zealand tracks very close to Australia)

South Korea . . 48 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66%

Japan . . . . . . . 126 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62%

UK. . . . . . . . . . . 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%

(Note: Ireland tracks very close to UK)

Netherlands . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%

(Note: Switzerland and Austria usually track hear Netherlands)

USA . . . . . . . . 320 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%

Saudi Arabia . . 28 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%

(Note: UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar track usually well ahead of Saudi Arabia)

Canada . . . . . . 34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%

France . . . . . . . 63 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%

Malaysia . . . . . 29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%

Spain . . . . . . . . 46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%

Italy . . . . . . . . . 61 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%

Taiwan . . . . . . . 23 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%

Germany . . . . . . 82 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%

Brazil . . . . . . . . 201 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%

Argentina . . . . . . 42 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%

Poland . . . . . . . . 38 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%

South Africa. . . . 52 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

Thailand . . . . . . . 71 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%

China . . . . . . . 1,482 . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

Turkey . . . . . . . . 75 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%

Philippines . . . . . 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

Russia . . . . . . . . 147 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%

Mexico . . . . . . . 117 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%

Indonesia . . . . . 247 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

Egypt . . . . . . . . . 84 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%

India . . . . . . . 1,261 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

[Zarpan]

There is one very simple explanation - Kantar measures sold numbers by consumer surveys, much like NPD, while Nokia and other OEMs released shipped numbers. As many BB fans will know, there can be a big discrepancy between shipped and sold, especially when the channel is full already.

Ok, I had to do a fair bit of research for this.

Nokia's North American shipments:
Q1 2012: 600k
Q2 2012: 600k
Q3 2012: 300k
Q4 2012: 700k
Q1 2013: 400k

Total: 2.6 million units shipped. That accounts for essentially all Lumia shipments to North America since the Lumia didn't seem to register US sales until February 2012.

Kantar's Windows Phone US Market Share and Total US smartphone sales (Windows phone sales in brackets)
Q1 2012: 3.8% and 25 million (950,000 units)
Q2 2012: 2.3% and 24 million (550,000 units)
Q3 2012: 2.9% and 25 million (725,000 units)
Q4 2012: 2.6% and 52 million (1.35 million units)
Q1 2013: 5.3% and 25 million (1.325 million units)

Windows phone sales were 4.9 million units during these periods according to Kantar.

Nokia represented about 75% of Windows Phone sales from January 2012 to March 2013. Hence Nokia's Windows Phone US sales would be 3.675 million if Kantar's numbers are correct.

This US sell-through number is 47% higher than the total number of Lumias that Nokia has ever shipped to North America. Therefore, if you think Kantar is reliable, you're arguing that Nokia has sold 1 million more Lumias in the US than they've *ever* shipped to North America.

[Shanerredflag]

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) to Further Deteriorate: CLSA
Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) to Further Deteriorate: CLSA

Thanks but let's be honest...this is not the correct thread to be posting this. No, I'm not blind, yes I'm likely older with and more diverse understanding of everything, not just stocks ,and no, I don't care that you want to show us all the negative...please read the thread title. crackerdoodle on my friend.

Posted via CB10

[JLagoon]

I didn't know that Samsung, and Honda are customers of QNX. http://www.qnx.com/company/customer_stories/

[sparkaction]

I didn't know that Samsung, and Honda are customers of QNX. http://www.qnx.com/company/customer_stories/

QNX is used everywhere but it appears the licensing fee for the OS is nominal.

[Korepab]

QNX is used everywhere but it appears the licensing fee for the OS is nominal.

It certainly seems like it. I would like to know what their strategy is going forward with QNX. Yes I know they are trying to get QNX to be the standard in automobiles but how are they going to increase revenue in addition to licensing fees. I hope someone would ask that question at the AGM.

[FocusedBerry]

QNX is used everywhere but it appears the licensing fee for the OS is nominal.

Why are they not increasing the fee? There must be some broader strategy in the works...

[MrBurns2U]

Boom! Ah big name dat! Jahcure is one of my fav artist!

As a long I'm holding until the holidays report. that will tell me all i need know about BlackBerry's recovery. if they cannot double sales during the holidays then it's truly over and time to go all software.

Posted via CB10

[m1a1mg]

Nokia represented about 75% of Windows Phone sales from January 2012 to March 2013. Hence Nokia's Windows Phone US sales would be 3.675 million if Kantar's numbers are correct.

Sorry, where did the 75% come from?

[Zarpan]

Sorry, where did the 75% come from?

Primarily from AdDuplex. They're a Windows Phone cross-promotion network that does hundreds of millions of impressions per month, so there's enough scale to make broad manufacturer numbers pretty accurate.

[morlock_man]

Why are they not increasing the fee? There must be some broader strategy in the works...

The base OS fee is nominal.

M2M is where Thor said they were going with BB10. The secure communications software that will make these devices communicate with each other will likely require additional licensing.

Look at what they're doing with BES10 regarding iPhone and Android support. $99 a year.

Now think about them charging $99 a year for tens of millions of new hyperconnected smart cars. Or even only $9 a year for hundreds of millions of smart appliances.

[Bugmapper]

Why are they not increasing the fee? There must be some broader strategy in the works...

Same as bes, money is in service fees for devices and machine connectivity, not sale of software.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[jon_stark_28]

This has been some great discussion and analysis, but let's get back to the stock price at hand. Morgan, what's your take on the sp hanging on to 10 so easily today? Shorts covering their profits ... I think we're in a strange place here. The stock can't go much lower than 8, so how much more could they make really? If they panic cover, the sp will jump significantly. If the company is bought out the sp will grow a lot causing some covering by the shorts making it go higher. Can you or anyone else explain how they could get out of this deep hole? And don't say that the stock could be lower ... 6 or 5 or 4 dollars. Bbry is worth so much more than where it's even at today ... IMHO

[JLagoon]

This has been some great discussion and analysis, but let's get back to the stock price at hand. Morgan, what's your take on the sp hanging on to 10 so easily today? Shorts covering their profits ... I think we're in a strange place here. The stock can't go much lower than 8, so how much more could they make really? If they panic cover, the sp will jump significantly. If the company is boughy out the sp will grow a lot causing some covering by the shorts making it go higher. Can you or anyone else explain how they could get out of this deep hole?

I cannot wait for this gap to be filled.

[dusdal]

I cannot wait for this gap to be filled.

Sorry in advance SuperFly

....that's what she said.

[lcjr]

Would be nice if the SP did not drop anymore. Any chance this gets back to at least 13 anytime soon?

[JLagoon]

Just a quick humor; I remember in one of Morgan's post, he said that one is lucky to have a 2 - 3% return on his / her portfolio. This board wants a 5% every day.