[randall2580]

I agree with you, the launch of BlackBerry as a new brand, was a terrible failure and we should have known this when they fired their PR team of 16 years. All of this falls on Heins. Aside from this statement, I feel that BB did not announce how many phones they expected to sell, rather they talked about breakeven for Q1 and the analysts ran with this bit of information and made a monster out of it. In the end, the company didn't miss by much at all, you can't look at handsets because they were never mentioned, you have to look solely at "breakeven" and how you get there. They didn't pre-announce anything because they didn't have the data skewed until Venezuela decided not to pay, There went $ 72 million or almost $ .14/shr of revenue, or breakeven out the window. The only thing I don't like is being told that Q2 is breakeven/loss too! Now that hurts. I understand it is too difficult for them to do staggered launches around the world and try to factor in both revenues and EPS. Fine.

I read the entire conference call. If you look at the questions at the end regarding the one time gains from taxes they didn't explain it well enough, if they explained it at all. If as I read here, this is not an exceptional gain but one BBRY can expect every year, show me where they communicated that effectively.

IMHO what I got from the 2 questions regarding it - the belief from the 2 who asked was this would have been a much bigger loss if it wasn't for the exceptional gain - that wasn't exceptional - but I would never know it if I didn't read this blog.

Its still on the C suite and can be much more effectively managed by them - but they seem to be timid about it and the market's ability to handle it.

And the "3 day rule" is big in coffee - one of the really good ones to live by.

[EvanRitch]

Sold at 11.15 on the TSX and if it dropped lower I could go back in to try to gain some profits back. However my problem is even if it drops to 7 how do I know it's not going to keep on going?

The real problem is that yes they have money in the bank but so does Apple. Yet Apple is undervalued and keeps going down. Blackberry could be the same as popularity could dwindle and I totally have NO belief in the Q5 no matter what the price is. So again that leaves the A10.

I thought if Blackberry sold around 4 million in the last quarter then having BBM on the iPhone and Android would be great.

Now it doesn't give great reason. The QWERTY aspect is a good selling point but man after this earnings report ive lost all Belief in the company and their ability to comeback. I understand its still early in the game but if they aren't coming off as the new flavor of the day thats pretty scarry. They were out before SG4 and the SG4 didn't blow away so in reality they should have been a top selling phone in the USA even if it's the land of the iphone.

Feel like Blackberry has turned into Sega Dreamcast something that has some nice features and overall is pretty sweet but people just wont take to it.

[greyw0lf01]

It’s no wonder the shorts keep adding to their positions. Crackberry is one of the worst things going for blackberry:

1. As a potential buyer of a phone, just browsing these forums would scare the hairs off my arm;
2. The investing forum where people blame everyone but management for their sorry investment fortunes;
3. The owners of this website (Kevin etc) promoting only the good research analysis and bashing the bad.

When you can invest w/o the emotional component involved its infinitely easier to concede that the thesis was wrong, sell and move on.

I’m sure many here bought shares expecting a short term pop because they love the phone so of course sales were strong; now that they are underwater it’s now a long term play... the fastest way to drain an investment account.

[morganplus8]

I read the entire conference call. If you look at the questions at the end regarding the one time gains from taxes they didn't explain it well enough, if they explained it at all. If as I read here, this is not an exceptional gain but one BBRY can expect every year, show me where they communicated that effectively.

IMHO what I got from the 2 questions regarding it - the belief from the 2 who asked was this would have been a much bigger loss if it wasn't for the exceptional gain - that wasn't exceptional - but I would never know it if I didn't read this blog.

Its still on the C suite and can be much more effectively managed by them - but they seem to be timid about it and the market's ability to handle it.

And the "3 day rule" is big in coffee - one of the really good ones to live by.

I agree, I wasn't aware of the tax benefit in terms of what was left to claim on the balance sheet, or, the % of the benefit going forward. That's why this thread is so powerful, we had a member this morning give us incite into that huge gain. To claim that cash flow would have sucked if not for this benefit is in poor taste as BlackBerry and every other Canadian company is milking this benefit for all it is worth. Should analysts know this already? Sure, but the ones that want to post negative articles choose to ignore it.

[kfh227]

I'm not expecting much in terms of FCF next quarter.

$100m would be nice. $300m+ would be stellar.

But probably close to break even.


If they can not improve on revenues, they are done for.

Posted via CB10

[JLagoon]

$10.28, I think, the candle today is an inverted hammer. I hope, it will be confirmed as a reversal tomorrow.

[dusdal]

Kfh227,

What are you expecting for revenues?

What level of revenue would you be pleased with?

Posted via CB10

[plane6065]

I would like to hear that another "Prem" or the guy himself simply picked up those loose shares. The shorts wouldn't like if it they hesitated and he got hold of their cover! LOL

Thank you again for all your awsome write ups. It's unfortunate that BlackBerry couldn't use people like yourself and others on board for their input. I understand we are only investors, but after reading 8 months of posting here, there are a lot of good insightful comments. I will be interesting with next week AGM.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

I would like to see them better off than just "break even" come Sep ER. Although I'll be ok with that if everything else within Blackberry is tracking as well. If that's the case, I'll even stick around to December ER. But come January 2014, if the SP is less than Januar 2012, I'll cut my losses and find something else. Until then, I believe in Blackberry (although they should look at their business rules) and hope they get things turned around ASAP.

[lcjr]

Thank you again for all your awsome write ups. It's unfortunate that BlackBerry couldn't use people like yourself and others on board for their input. I understand we are only investors, but after reading 8 months of posting here, there are a lot of good insightful comments. I will be interesting with next week AGM.

Posted via CB10

Exaclty. I asked a question relating to this last Friday afternoon I think. I was wondering if the board or TH himself ever ventured into this forum or this thread. Normally I would say a business wouldn't bother with a forum, but seeing this forum is famous for being Blackberry's support base one would think it probable. That being said, it would be very interesting to sit in on their next board meeting after that ER and hear some comments read back to them out loud. Just my thoughts for today.

[JLagoon]

Hourly MACD is close to cross upward.

[morlock_man]

I do not disagree with your assertion about the USA but again is this chicken or the egg by now. BlackBerry has lost the hearts and minds of the American consumer if they were ever in it in the first place. To get it back they need to do everything the others do and fry eggs. They don't. The USA carriers aren't stupid they want to sell phones. Their research or their intuition or perhaps both tells them these phones won't do it. I will make a prediction right here right now. If you still have to side load to get the major applications to BB10 when A10 comes out, it too will be a flop in the USA.

You and I will likely disagree about media companies and BlackBerry losing share here - we can agree to disagree aboat (sic)that. ;-)

Where BlackBerry is really hurting is that they have, with BYOD been losing the heart and mind of the American businessman. On my trading desk is 2 iPhones and 2 Androids (Samsung), the back office is 100% Android. That's my small company. Nothing to do with anything but expectation of the experience.

BlackBerry was never really a consumer product.

They made their way with enterprise level communications devices. The consumer market only really developed as iPhone and Android took off. BlackBerry's market never really crashed, Apple and Google just devoured the feature phone market.

They still can't provide the same level of device security, especially when dealing with wireless protocols, which is BlackBerry's bread-and-butter.

Therefore, while the small American Businessman may love the iPhone or million versions of Android available, Enterprise needs BlackBerry.

As for the whole sideloading issue, that's the chicken or the egg issue.

How many different media companies have their content available on Netflix?
How many of those same companies have ties to Apple through iTunes?
How many of those same companies are deeply invested in Google for advertising purposes?

Do you really think they're all just going to roll over and make it easy for a foreign company to invade their mindshare and marketspace?

This is war, incorporated. Plain and simple.

[ccan]

Just saw 2 orders on after market for 75000 shares each.

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

I'm glad it stayed above $10 today. Anything above that from now on will be appreciated. Of course, I know, at some point this week or even next, it will drop to $9 or below, just based off how it's performing so far. However, with the large volume and the amount this stock is shorted, a short pop to $13 would be nice and satisfying.

God, I hope some aggressive move announcement comes in July following the meeting.

Posted via CB10

[Zarpan]

Not less independent, just more reliable. There is some very weird things going on with statcounter data these days.

I do agree that there are weird things going on with Statcounter data.

However, to say Kantar is reliable is also not true.

Once again I will ask you to explain something: Nokia said they sold 400,000 units in North America in Q1. That's about a 1.5% market share for the US. Kantar said that Windows Phone had a 5.6% share in the US during Q1 (3 months ending in March). If you add in other Windows Phone manufacturers, Windows Phone couldn't have had more than 2-3% market share during Q1 since Nokia represents the majority of WP sales.

Is Kantar showing double the true Windows Phone market share for the US a sign of reliability?

To add to that, carrier numbers for iOS differ greatly from Kantar. Kantar had iOS share at 63% at AT&T during Q1 while AT&T said that iOS had 80% market share during Q1 for them.

I've asked you twice to explain why Kantar is reliable in light of information from official sources (manufacturers and carriers) that directly contradicts their survey numbers. We can certainly say that BlackBerry has a small market share in Europe and the US, but the margin of error with their surveys seems high enough to make it useless for determining whether BlackBerry's share has changed.

If you fail to address the issues with Kantar's numbers for a third time, and keep referencing Kantar as a reliable source of information, I can only conclude that you care about bashing BlackBerry more than accuracy.

[ccan]

I'm glad it stayed above $10 today. Anything above that from now on will be appreciated. Of course, I know, at some point this week or even next, it will drop to $9 or below, just based off how it's performing so far. However, with the large volume and the amount this stock is shorted, a short pop to $13 would be nice and satisfying.

God, I hope some aggressive move announcement comes in July following the meeting.

Posted via CB10

Yes I agree a big announcement by TH is needed to reestablish some confidence in blackberry.

Posted via CB10

[sparkaction]

I really hope that Thor is predicting a loss for the next quarter because BlackBerry plans to blow its brains out in terms of marketing and R&D. If they report a loss and they have not improved their marketing efforts then truly this story is broken and longs should consider executing Plan B.

[Gesig Boek]

I do agree that there are weird things going on with Statcounter data.

However, to say Kantar is reliable is also not true.

Once again I will ask you to explain something: Nokia said they sold 400,000 units in North America in Q1. That's about a 1.5% market share for the US. Kantar said that Windows Phone had a 5.6% share in the US during Q1 (3 months ending in March). If you add in other Windows Phone manufacturers, Windows Phone couldn't have had more than 2-3% market share during Q1 since Nokia represents the majority of WP sales.

Is Kantar showing double the true Windows Phone market share for the US a sign of reliability?

To add to that, carrier numbers for iOS differ greatly from Kantar. Kantar had iOS share at 63% at AT&T during Q1 while AT&T said that iOS had 80% market share during Q1 for them.

I've asked you twice to explain why Kantar is reliable in light of information from official sources (manufacturers and carriers) that directly contradicts their survey numbers. We can certainly say that BlackBerry has a small market share in Europe and the US, but the margin of error with their surveys seems high enough to make it useless for determining whether BlackBerry's share has changed.

If you fail to address the issues with Kantar's numbers for a third time, and keep referencing Kantar as a reliable source of information, I can only conclude that you care about bashing BlackBerry more than accuracy.

There is one very simple explanation - Kantar measures sold numbers by consumer surveys, much like NPD, while Nokia and other OEMs released shipped numbers. As many BB fans will know, there can be a big discrepancy between shipped and sold, especially when the channel is full already.

[Superfly_FR]

I see, so transparency is suddenly a bad thing?

A new operating system was launched, report how many devices were sold instead of saying how many were shipped which means nothing other than a future potential inventory write-down.

What do you think will happen without insight into the company for 3 months... the steady drumbeat of negative stories so no matter how much you spend on advertising, the various teeeveee personalities, newspapers, websites and in store representatives will just harp on the Blackberry is dead meme...

The company is in a tricky situation and is trying to turn things around. Reading some of the comments here, you�d think the hope for BBRY to return to former glory in mkt share and stock price is like waiting for the resurrection of Jesus. It�s a device made by a company that doesn�t know your name and doesn�t care about you.

If you�re underwater on the trade, try and hedge any further downside risk. But you guys are cherry picking bits of data here and there as proof of a turnaround. Less transparency by a company is NEVER A GOOD THING, investors should run.

Some crazed fanboy is going to see all this rosy bit of news, buy shares w/ all they have and get run over if earning are again weak. The lot of you who keep parroting that a loss isn�t a loss until you sell are NUTS and should never be allowed to post on message boards about investing... that **** is criminal & for all the talk of blackberry devices are for �adults� should be ashamed for not shouting down that kind of talk even louder.

Friday was rough, lick your wounds, get past the downgrades, past the shareholder meeting (another potential downside event risk) and see how devices sell. No one should be flogging this... sell (and write off the losses from a tax perspective), sit tight (because your portfolio is diversified enough that one name won�t make or break your investment account) or hedge the downside risk... you know, prudent risk management.

Please avoid to qualify non traders, aka so long it can barely match your horizon, like stupid kids with no brain. You can perfectly disagree with anything you want and even expose it - exactly like the second part of your post.
But for God sakes, naming us criminals, after 2+ years of daily contributions, exchange of POV, and at least weekly warnings... you can't, even if you are upset.

Guys, please, let's not over react to this.
Thanks


Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Yes I agree a big announcement by TH is needed to reestablish some confidence in blackberry.

Posted via CB10

Based on past experience, TH won't do anything. I'll be really surprised (pleasantly) if he makes a statement.

[vuutang]

Hey all, I'm sure this has been answered many times but when did Q1 end and when was the q10 released first?

[tiziano27]

I agree, I wasn't aware of the tax benefit in terms of what was left to claim on the balance sheet, or, the % of the benefit going forward. That's why this thread is so powerful, we had a member this morning give us incite into that huge gain. To claim that cash flow would have sucked if not for this benefit is in poor taste as BlackBerry and every other Canadian company is milking this benefit for all it is worth. Should analysts know this already? Sure, but the ones that want to post negative articles choose to ignore it.

They had $597 million in “Income taxes receivable” in February, $33 in May. So they received $564 in cash from the Canadian government in the last quarter?

The “Income taxes receivable” item grew during the last fiscal year and became cash the last quarter. So the next quarter you count with $564 less in the cash flow from operating activities. That probably means strongly negative cash flow for q2.

If the Canadian government is pumping $597 million per year or more into the company as tax benefits, that means the core business sucks.

$597 million is 1.14 EPS.

If someone could explain this, that would be nice.

[sidhuk]

They had $597 million in �Income taxes receivable� in February, $33 in May. So they received $564 in cash from the Canadian government in the last quarter?

The �Income taxes receivable� item grew during the last fiscal year and became cash the last quarter. So the next quarter you count with $564 less in the cash flow from operating activities. That probably means strongly negative cash flow for q2.

If the Canadian government is pumping $597 million per year or more into the company as tax benefits, that means the core business sucks.

$597 million is 1.14 EPS.

If someone could explain this, that would be nice.

Good or bad, it is part of the benefits doing business in canada. As each country has their tax rates different than the others, same way incentives are unique too.
For example: apple keeps large some of their earnings over seas to avoid US taxes. Does that mean that apple's bottom line bad? No i dont think so. I wouldnt look at it as a negative entry.

[JLagoon]

In India: http://economictimes.com/tech/hardwa...w/20862568.cms

[dusdal]

Hey all, I'm sure this has been answered many times but when did Q1 end and when was the q10 released first?

Q1 ended June 2nd.

Q10 was released All over on different dates to different carriers. This one, I will leave to google.

I previously posted a link to smartphone markets sizes broken out by country as well, if I may assume into your intended use of this info

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