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- I was very temped to refill my BBRY shares on last Friday day. I didn't pull my trigger because I knew that the many downgrades would come from camps of both bear and bull.
This morning, when I saw five downgrades, and SP dropped another 5%, I pulled my trigger.
If the SP goes down more, be it. I never regret my own decision on the stock market neither I will blame anyone else, including the company.07-01-13 08:49 AMLike 5 - Digging Into BlackBerry's Cash: Things Are Not As Well As They Seem
by Helix Investment Research
Like many observers of (and investors in) the smartphone market, we have been anticipating BlackBerry's (BBRY) Q1 2014 earnings release and conference call, for they would provide insight into how new BlackBerry 10 devices are faring. And like many observers and investors, the depth of BlackBerry's miss relative to consensus estimates surprised us, as well as other revelations the company provided (more on those later). However, one of the first things we went to after BlackBerry released its earnings was to its cash flow statements, and we were pleasantly surprised. The company generated $630 million of operating cash flow; while that was still down from the $711 million generated in Q1 2013, it was still a meaningful number, and suggests that BlackBerry's business may not be as bad as its critics believe. Furthermore, BlackBerry's balance of cash and investments rose to $3.071 billion, up 6.82% from Q4 2012's $2.875 billion. Based on the company's market capitalization as of the close of trading on June 28, over 56% of its market capitalization is in cash. Despite its headline troubles, BlackBerry has been able to continue generating cash, and has created a fortress balance sheet. read more �
Digging Into BlackBerry's Cash: Things Are Not As Well As They Seem - Seeking Alpha07-01-13 08:58 AMLike 0 - Conclusions
Investors considering adding to or initiating positions in BlackBerry at these levels should tread carefully. Although the company's balance sheet may seem attractive at this point in time, BlackBerry was able to increase its balance of cash and investments only via one-time working capital benefits, and its balance sheet will likely be put under increased pressure in this quarter and the quarters to come. Should the company begin burning cash, perhaps the most crucial pillar of the BlackBerry bullish thesis will begin to crack, something that will almost certainly exacerbate the pressure on the company's share price.07-01-13 09:00 AMLike 0 -
- Good morning Gang. Glad to see some people get the day off while the rest of us run this world. haha
Real quick: Contract awarded to Digital Management doesn't start for another week, and there's much to disect that will take a few days to come out. As soon as I get more information I'll post it up here.
DISA Awards MDM/MAS Contract
DISA Press Release
I wish everyone a fun and/or productive day!07-01-13 09:01 AMLike 6 - Well this might not be great news but hey its nice to see, since last night at 10 pm to this morning amazon sold 10 of my unlocked z10s which if you include mine brings the total for 1 day to 11. Small number yes... but still makes me happy07-01-13 09:07 AMLike 8
- This isnt a buy right now. Well not until the quarter is over. Big boys don't want this stock on their books so during this window dressing time don't expect any big relief.07-01-13 09:08 AMLike 0
- Pretty sure the big boys already dropped this stock on friday, new big players would love to get in at this price compared to the 15-18 range
07-01-13 09:10 AMLike 4 - Conclusions
Investors considering adding to or initiating positions in BlackBerry at these levels should tread carefully. Although the company's balance sheet may seem attractive at this point in time, BlackBerry was able to increase its balance of cash and investments only via one-time working capital benefits, and its balance sheet will likely be put under increased pressure in this quarter and the quarters to come. Should the company begin burning cash, perhaps the most crucial pillar of the BlackBerry bullish thesis will begin to crack, something that will almost certainly exacerbate the pressure on the company's share price.
Let's see, they grew hard assets by $ 600 million and cash to $ 3.1 billion while preparing to launch BES10, the Q10 to the US market and the Q5 for world level sales. Who else can do that? The numbers are pure evidence that BlackBerry is extremely well managed financially. They have the inventory needed to launch in the US which hadn't happened at the time of this report, they had to build for Q5 at the same time and push out software. All of this stuff is very high margin product that converts to 200% cash. An amazing set of numbers that are likely to continue for at least one more quarter.
As an investor, I want to see an "X" pattern in the Cash Versus Inventory Base, they need to spend cash to create value added assets that consumers want. So spend that cash on leading technology and software and get them into the consumers hands.
In terms of the stock, we are doing well so far, we dropped for a moment at the open, this was expected, we rallied to our Friday "low" support, and now the stock is sitting there at the Bid taking in margin call stock. I can see us going green today and that's a great sign given all the analysts were so wrong on this Q. The Bollinger Bands are in the $ 11,00's so we have to get back into them ASAP. RSI (14) = 25 meaning we need to rally NOW! Fun to watch so far.07-01-13 09:11 AMLike 9 - Good morning Gang. Glad to see some people get the day off while the rest of us run this world. haha
Real quick: Contract awarded to Digital Management doesn't start for another week, and there's much to disect that will take a few days to come out. As soon as I get more information I'll post it up here.
DISA Awards MDM/MAS Contract
DISA Press Release
I wish everyone a fun and/or productive day!
Looking forward to your thoughts.07-01-13 09:15 AMLike 0 - 07-01-13 09:21 AMLike 2
- 07-01-13 09:22 AMLike 4
- 07-01-13 09:28 AMLike 10
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We could very well see Blackberry involved in this as well. "The establishment of the MDM and MAS is the next major step forward in DOD’s process for building a multi-vendor environment, supporting a diverse selection of devices and operating systems."
It's too early in the process right now and will take a few days to a week to sort through the assumptions and get the facts. It's definately getting interesting, but I wouldn't get our hopes up for any underlying secret opportunities for Blackberry. I think they'll just be involved like every other vendor now.07-01-13 09:28 AMLike 10 -
- I believe the reason that Blackberry at the moment unable to penetrate the consumer smartphone market is because it misses the initiation step, i.e., it does not have the low cost media player with form factor at 4 and 5 inch.
The same reason that Apple and Samsung can sell so many smartphone, is that the young generation got their media players first, then naturally bought the smartphone when they need.
I wish that Blackberry can launch the 4" and 5" media players as soon as possible. Most kids before entering the college, they do not need smartphones, but they all want (or need) a media player.
If Blackberry can sell 10s million of media player under BB10 OS, then the 10's million BB10 media player owners become the potential BB10 smartphone owners.
P.S. If anyone has direct contact with Blackberry top management, please provide this suggestion to the company for consideration.07-01-13 09:38 AMLike 0 - I believe the reason thatBlackberry at the moment unable to penetrate the consumer smartphone market is because it misses the initiation step, i.e., it does not have the low cost media player with form factor at 4 and 5 inch.
The same reason that Apple and Samsung can sell so many smartphone, is that the young generation got their media players first, then naturally bought the smartphone when they need.
I wish that Blackberry can launch the 4" and 5" media players as soon as possible. Most kids before entering the college, they do not need smartphones, but they all want (or need) a media player.
If Blackberry can sell 10s million of media player under BB10 OS, then the 10's million BB10 media player owners become the potential BB10 smartphone owners.07-01-13 09:43 AMLike 4 -
- I don't see that happening. honestly, at least here in the USA, I see more 13 14 and 15 yr old kids running around wth high end smart phones everyday. both of my younger sisters 14 and 16 have S3's. its sad but true. that's the pattern herefrom what I see. a good entry level phone with bb10 features, i.e. theQ5 SHOULD do very well.
What I think BBRY should have done is to launch an actual low-end device running BB10. Basically a curve with BB10. Even if selling for dirt cheap or at a loss. The problem right now isn't really $$$ but market share which seems to be going down every month.
Pushing out another BB7 device just sounds like a waste of resources to me - hopefully I am wrong and it turns out to be a good thing but it just sounds wrong.07-01-13 09:47 AMLike 3 - I don't see that happening. honestly, at least here in the USA, I see more 13 14 and 15 yr old kids running around wth high end smart phones everyday. both of my younger sisters 14 and 16 have S3's. its sad but true. that's the pattern herefrom what I see. a good entry level phone with bb10 features, i.e. theQ5 SHOULD do very well.
Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.07-01-13 09:49 AMLike 2 - Should the Q5 really be classified as an entry level device? I mean compared to a curve which can be bought out right for less than �150~ brand new - the Q5 is really a mid-tier device.
What I think BBRY should have done is to launch an actual low-end device running BB10. Basically a curve with BB10. Even if selling for dirt cheap or at a loss. The problem right now isn't really $$$ but market share which seems to be going down every month.
Pushing out another BB7 device just sounds like a waste of resources to me - hopefully I am wrong and it turns out to be a good thing but it just sounds wrong.07-01-13 09:50 AMLike 3 - Shanerredflag likes this.07-01-13 10:02 AMLike 1
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