[JLagoon]

This is true. If you don't parse the browser user agent string correctly, then Playbook and bbos browsers are identified as Safari.

[sidhuk]

I am not claiming to know why what is going on is going on, only that the data is patently being falsified, and very few people are recognizing it.

It seems you are arguing that the installed base of BB users could have doubled in Canada in one day. Thats obviously impossible. I think anyone who references this statcounter data positively should actually be considered suspect.

LoL, I am not arguing with you and sorry if you felt that way. I did start my post questioning the credibility of GS counter. Plus i did mention a very tasty low carb beer. enough of this gloom and doom. life goes on. cheers

here is my original post "Now, i know looking at the gs stat counter is not the smartest thing to gauge but what the heck, Just had first Michelob ultra and here is my beloved Canada as of today. cheers."

Now i been told that my English is bad, but didnt think it was this bad?

[Zarpan]

It's been years since I've done anything in retail, and that was car sales, which is really convoluted. I had read this on Friday, so it got me thinking*.

Facebook’s HTC First, the smartphone herald of Facebook Home, will be discontinued by carrier partner AT&T, according a report from BGR Monday. The phones, released just over a month ago, will be returned as unsold inventory to HTC, with only 15,000 handsets making it into customers’ hands.

*Maybe dangerous.

I think that information ended up being a bit off since that article about it being returned as unsold inventory was initially published over a month ago.

AT&T ended up heavily discounting the HTC First and clearing out their inventory. They're not going to reorder the phone obviously, but they didn't return what they had ordered initially.

AT&T CEO compares Facebook's HTC First to Apple's failed ROKR experiment | The Verge

"AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega has told CNET that the carrier has sold all of its HTC First Facebook phones. While he declined to say exactly how many phones AT&T has sold, our sources revealed the phone was "disastrous" for HTC, and plans for a UK launch were scrapped last month. In response to poor sales, AT&T dropped the price of the First from $99 to $0.99, and according to de la Vega, the carrier has now cleared its inventory — the Facebook phone experiment is over."

[Superfly_FR]

Too late to extrapolate but I must say - and I've been caught at least once using statcounter graph - these figures were misleading.
Mostly because we were trying to extrapolate data usage on selected sites (those witch implement SC apis) into devices volume growth.
This, at least was plain error, for sure.

Yet, I've not heard nor read any statement from BlackBerry relying on these "stats". Add that SC is a quite confidential company and the manipulation option vanishes IMHO.

We've asked here some times to Kevin (not sure he reads nor appreciate this particular thread) if he can disclose some stats. He mentioned levels in the podcast, that matched in his opinion with the 2.7 millions figure. May be interesting to cross match SC and CB figures... But traffic figures of a web site is part of their treasure, I do understand why they could decide not to disclose them. But maybe they could compare and state if there is something really weird with what we saw.
...
Good nite all !

Posted via CB10

[Zarpan]

Of course I think its not just extremely unreliable, but in fact intentionally misleading. The short time frame the change happened makes it impossible for it to be natural. Did 1/4 of the Canadian iPhone and Android using population suddenly come off their 3 year contracts at the same time and buy BB10 handsets? It is clearly being falsified.

I wouldn't say that it is falsified or intentionally misleading, just that Statcounter is not particularly accurate at times. BlackBerry had around 20% of the installed smartphone base in Canada at the beginning of the year. They're probably at least maintaining that with the Z10 and Q10, so I'd say somewhere around 20% in the accurate number. So the number was probably too low before in Statcounter and too high now.

Did you put up the same fuss or use the same verbiage when Kantar's numbers were off with Windows Phone in the US? Nokia said they sold 400,000 units in North America in Q1. That's about a 1.5% market share for the US. Kantar said that Windows Phone had a 5.6% share in the US during Q1. If you add in other Windows Phone manufacturers, Windows Phone couldn't have had more than 2-3% market share during Q1 since Nokia represents the majority of WP sales. Is Kantar showing double the true Windows Phone market share for the US intentionally misleading or falsified?

[Dapper37]

Am I the only person here that is not that worried?



Posted via CB10

No, I'm not that worried. My time frames for a comfort zone has expanded though.

Posted via CB10

[Zarpan]

2) No sell through rate provided in contrast to last quarter where they disclosed this number, the mystery creates some apprehension in me.

I'd happier if they provided the sell through rate. However, none of the major manufacturers disclose sell-through. Technically a sale happens once the product leaves their warehouse towards a customer. That's what gets reported as "sold" by news outlets.

Other manufacturers are also a bit vague on the mix of new products. Apple doesn't report the mix of iPhones that they sell, so people end up guessing about how many iPhone 5s they are selling each quarter based on ASPs. Nokia provides info similar to BlackBerry - rough percentage of Lumia shipments that are WP8 Lumias vs. WP7.

I think BlackBerry reported sell-through before since there was a lot of channel stuffing a few years ago. Hence sell-through numbers have been well in excess of shipments since at least 2011, and it was in BlackBerry's interests to report the higher sell-through numbers. Maybe they'll stop reporting sell-through in the future too since they've cleared out most of the extra inventory. That would make them more in line with other manufacturers.

[Gesig Boek]

I wouldn't say that it is falsified or intentionally misleading, just that Statcounter is not particularly accurate at times. BlackBerry had around 20% of the installed smartphone base in Canada at the beginning of the year. They're probably at least maintaining that with the Z10 and Q10, so I'd say somewhere around 20% in the accurate number. So the number was probably too low before in Statcounter and too high now.

Did you put up the same fuss or use the same verbiage when Kantar's numbers were off with Windows Phone in the US? Nokia said they sold 400,000 units in North America in Q1. That's about a 1.5% market share for the US. Kantar said that Windows Phone had a 5.6% share in the US during Q1. If you add in other Windows Phone manufacturers, Windows Phone couldn't have had more than 2-3% market share during Q1 since Nokia represents the majority of WP sales. Is Kantar showing double the true Windows Phone market share for the US intentionally misleading or falsified?

Actually Kantar's numbers have proven remarkably accurate when correlated with IDC gave Windows Phone 6% market share in Europe in Q1 2013, just like Kantar, and said RIM had less than 5% market share in Europe (Kantar said 2.7%)
The Western European Mobile Phone Market Declines in 1Q13, Driven by the Smartphone Slowdown, says IDC - prUK24197413

So where the two cross over there is very good correlation.

Before the 28th people claimed Kantar's numbers for RIM's market share in US could not be right. I assume that has changed now.

I see a lot of TA in this thread, but very little analysis of all the actual sales data available, with everyone saying wait for the quarterly results. There's not a single thread on the recent Comscore numbers for example. I think we saw the result of that.

[_dimi_]

Their CFO does mention a sell-through figure during the conference call: 6.8m without mentioning BB7 and BB10 sell-through. So, sell-through is identical to shipments.

He also mentions that BB7 inventory has dropped quite significantly versus a build-up of BB10 inventory (mostly Z10 and Q10). This seems logical as 60% of their shipments came from BB7 inventory.

Question: could anyone please validate if the inventory figure is actually the value at which Blackberry hopes to sell their units to the carriers..? Not the cost for BlackBerry to have manufactured these handsets. Morgan? :-)

Just to get an idea of their current inventory levels.. thanks!!!

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

He mentions it approx 22min30sec into the call.

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

Their CFO does mention a sell-through figure during the conference call: 6.8m without mentioning BB7 and BB10 sell-through. So, sell-through is identical to shipments.

He also mentions that BB7 inventory has dropped quite significantly versus a build-up of BB10 inventory (mostly Z10 and Q10). This seems logical as 60% of their shipments came from BB7 inventory.

Question: could anyone please validate if the inventory figure is actually the value at which Blackberry hopes to sell their units to the carriers..? Not the cost for BlackBerry to have manufactured these handsets. Morgan? :-)

Just to get an idea of their current inventory levels.. thanks!!!

Posted via CB10

can't value inventory at the sales price, unless the sales price has fallen below cost of course, then you get a situation they had with the Playbooks, which ended up in a write off or a write down.

And as far as the BB10's concerned they mentioned all these Fortune 500 companies that are about to get going with the BB10 devices, so if true then Blackberry indeed should have inventory.

Remember there are two reasons to build inventory, one if the sales suck, two in anticipation of a surge in sales. And Blackberry says they are in a marathon. So it all does not have to have a negative explanation, but i guess for now for sure the negativity prevails.

[dusdal]

Inventory will be valued at the lower of either costs to produce the inventory or expected sales value.

In the case of bb10 phones this will be the costs to produce them. Leftover bb7 phones may be valued lower than the cost to produce them.

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

Thanks guys. So they have a lot of BB10s sitting there right now. Need to give this some more thought, but you do make a valid point: they did indicate during the conf call that the enterprise upgrade cycle takes a considerable amount of time when comparing it to a consumer upgrade cycle..

Needless to say, I hope the biggest (and most intelligent) micromanager at BlackBerry is monitoring these inventory levels :-) I'm sure Thorsten and Kristian Tear still have the PlayBook fiasco in mind.. a difficult exercise if you ask me!

Posted via CB10

[JLagoon]

Hi Morgan and all:

Here is Abigail Doolittle's take on the stock on mid June. She still sticks to her analysis on her interview on 6/28. Hopefully, her chart is correct.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talki...202157196.html

[kfh227]

A bearish article worth reading

http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?...ticle_readmore

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

Inventory will be valued at the lower of either costs to produce the inventory or expected sales value.

In the case of bb10 phones this will be the costs to produce them. Leftover bb7 phones may be valued lower than the cost to produce them.

Posted via CB10

Is this GAAP or the way BBRY says that they do it?

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

Hi Morgan and all:

Here is Abigail Doolittle's take on the stock on mid June. She still sticks to her analysis on her interview on 6/28. Hopefully, her chart is correct.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talki...202157196.html

Charts will not make bbry viable or not viable long term. We need to talk financial statements!

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Is this GAAP or the way BBRY says that they do it?

Posted via CB10

Both I believe.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think GAAP is primarily concerned with you being consistent in using whichever method you choose.

[Zarpan]

Actually Kantar's numbers have proven remarkably accurate when correlated with IDC gave Windows Phone 6% market share in Europe in Q1 2013, just like Kantar, and said RIM had less than 5% market share in Europe (Kantar said 2.7%)
The Western European Mobile Phone Market Declines in 1Q13, Driven by the Smartphone Slowdown, says IDC - prUK24197413

So where the two cross over there is very good correlation.

Before the 28th people claimed Kantar's numbers for RIM's market share in US could not be right. I assume that has changed now.

I see a lot of TA in this thread, but very little analysis of all the actual sales data available, with everyone saying wait for the quarterly results. There's not a single thread on the recent Comscore numbers for example. I think we saw the result of that.

I noticed that you completely failed to address why Kantar's US market share numbers were badly contradicted by Nokia's own numbers. That doesn't seem "remarkably accurate" to me. You appear to be engaging in the same selective data processing that you've been criticizing others for.

Once again I will ask you: Nokia said they sold 400,000 units in North America in Q1. That's about a 1.5% market share for the US. Kantar said that Windows Phone had a 5.6% share in the US during Q1. If you add in other Windows Phone manufacturers, Windows Phone couldn't have had more than 2-3% market share during Q1 since Nokia represents the majority of WP sales.

Is Kantar showing double the true Windows Phone market share for the US intentionally misleading or falsified?

[kfh227]

So, bbry up 10% tomorrow?

Posted via CB10

[Kid Vibe]

So, bbry up 10% tomorrow?

Posted via CB10

I hope so! lol... looks like we will have to wait for a few months though??? Not sure what to expect. I really hope a positive news article on a partnership or something crazy soon or the SP is going to slide even more IMO.

[dusdal]

Given that Kantar's most recent report (June 3) is only reporting up to the end of April (pre-any-significant-BB10-launch) I thought I would post the most recent data available.

I realize there is some controversy currently about this. I have emailed GlobalStats and told them of our situation to see if they can offer any insight into this sudden pop in the trendline and any other cautions they would give.

In the meantime, you can just think of it as art. I just really like to look at it. The sustained blip on the NA chart is quite nice as well.

You'll notice that the lowest point on the BB trendline is the very last day of Q1 sales. The upward trend is in the current quarter.

They paid good money for this manipulation and got good execution!

[peter9477]

A bearish article worth reading

http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?...ticle_readmore

Painful reading, but I agree it's worth the time.

[dusdal]

Hi Gents,

Some questionably reliable info for the sake of perspective.

Communities Dominate Brands: Rare National Smartphone Market Data via Mary Meeker - Analyzed further and reported also Per Capita + Bonus! Estimate of regional smartphone new sales market sizes for 2013

She lays out the size of last year's smartphone market on a per country basis.

Note the significance of the US market.

[dusdal]

One more that might be mostly just interesting to me haha.



iphone sales since inception.

Side note: is anyone able to find something similar on Android? I haven't had any luck.