[m1a1mg]

No problem with disagreeing. Some of it is simply a matter of opinion and we are all welcome to have one. As for the Apple stuff.... once it is is shipped, it's considered sold. Don't quote me on this but I would assume that it's a matter of semantics. Of course I could be wrong and those are the sell through but seeing as they sell direct via their retail stores and online, coupled with carriers, they would probably group them as one number and call it sold.

That's what I tried, obviously not well, to get to the bottom of Friday. I know Apple has a special relationship with carriers. Basically it's "here is the phone, you will pay this much and we will never take it back. Period." (See Sprint) I've read that other manufacturers, without the Apple or Samsung clout, have different relationships with the carriers. To wit, what is the BBRY relationship with the US carriers. Are those phones shipped considered sold, or is the relationship different. Given that BBRY was not in a position of power, one should wonder.

An example is the Facebook phone from HTC that AT&T was basically giving away for .99. Did AT&T still have to pay full price for the phone or did HTC eat that?

[cjcampbell]

An example is the Facebook phone from HTC that AT&T was basically giving away for .99. Did AT&T still have to pay full price for the phone or did HTC eat that?

I would assume that yes, they committed to the number of phones they bought and that's that. Since they had them in inventory, it was a better business decision to discount and move them than worry about profit and holding inventory. If it was negotiable after the fact, they'd be returning them as opposed to trying to blow them out. The majority of their profit is from plans, not hardware, any way.

Now of course it goes without saying that I have no idea what's cooked into the contracts, but I have worked in retail and having non movers happens but they are paid for in full. It then comes down to limiting the downside via discounts in order to free up cash away from holding dead inventory.

[Zimbad]

true story that happened this evening:
so i was talking with a young cousin of mine in the UK (9 years old-female) and the conversation went something like this:

9 yr old cousin: 'are you getting the new blackberry'
me: 'the new blackberry? which one'
9 yr old cousin: 'the new one that's coming out soon' (i.e the q5)
me: '=O where did u hear about the new blackberry?'
9 yr old cousin: 'i heard about it on tv, and at school my friends are talking about it; they told me they are getting it'

maybe all is not lost if the young ones are showing interest 8)

[BlackistheBerry]

true story that happened this evening:
so i was talking with a young cousin of mine in the UK (9 years old-female) and the conversation went something like this:

9 yr old cousin: 'are you getting the new blackberry'
me: 'the new blackberry? which one'
9 yr old cousin: 'the new one that's coming out soon' (i.e the q5)
me: '=O where did u hear about the new blackberry?'
9 yr old cousin: 'i heard about it on tv, and at school my friends are talking about it; they told me they are getting it'

maybe all is not lost if the young ones are showing interest 8)

I do think the Q5 has a lot of potential. It's something that they relate to, and at the same time, something new.
They just need to market the NEW part aggressively, highlighting all the features that BB10 offers.

[m1a1mg]

It's been years since I've done anything in retail, and that was car sales, which is really convoluted. I had read this on Friday, so it got me thinking*.

Facebook’s HTC First, the smartphone herald of Facebook Home, will be discontinued by carrier partner AT&T, according a report from BGR Monday. The phones, released just over a month ago, will be returned as unsold inventory to HTC, with only 15,000 handsets making it into customers’ hands.

*Maybe dangerous.

[dusdal]

Though my own projections suggest a loss in Q2, I think the expected 4 million bb10 devices is grossly conservative.

I say this because Q1 sold 2.7 devices with Q10 availability in only Canada and UK and for only one month.

Launch dates suggest that Q2 will see two months in the broader market including the US, which is both nearly 4 times the size of UK/Canada combined but also a great target, IMO, for the Q10. The Q10 is the dream business phone and the US is home to the 60% of Fortune co's that have installed BES 10.

Additionally, Q2 is scheduled to see two months of Q5 availability in Indonesia, India and the UK (+ other markets?)

Add the monetization potential for bbm channels, BES 10, x-platform bbm and QNX. (side note: does anyone know if BES licenses are recorded as software revenue or services revenue?)

Considering again that the SP is well below reasonable book value, I consider the above to be free potential growth. You do not need to pay for it at today's SP. It has already proven to be a growth story last quarter, just a little slower than hoped.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Probably for the q5 launch? They probably have them ready to ship as many of those as required by the demand.
And I believe it will have good reception in the other markets where the phones are normally bought outright, without help from carriers.

Also, the reporting period ended a few weeks before Q10 launch in the US.

It wouldn't take many Q10s to make up $300 M. Plus Q5 launch prep.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

true story that happened this evening:
so i was talking with a young cousin of mine in the UK (9 years old-female) and the conversation went something like this:

9 yr old cousin: 'are you getting the new blackberry'
me: 'the new blackberry? which one'
9 yr old cousin: 'the new one that's coming out soon' (i.e the q5)
me: '=O where did u hear about the new blackberry?'
9 yr old cousin: 'i heard about it on tv, and at school my friends are talking about it; they told me they are getting it'

maybe all is not lost if the young ones are showing interest 8)

I think we are starting to step back into the reality distortion field that was slightly displaced by the earnings call - there is no chance of mass adoption amongst that age group - they have phones bought for them (for example I bought a curve for my niece), the cheapo curve is king at @�80 and is not going to be displaced by a phone that cost �350...

[cjcampbell]

It's been years since I've done anything in retail, and that was car sales, which is really convoluted. I had read this on Friday, so it got me thinking*.

Facebook’s HTC First, the smartphone herald of Facebook Home, will be discontinued by carrier partner AT&T, according a report from BGR Monday. The phones, released just over a month ago, will be returned as unsold inventory to HTC, with only 15,000 handsets making it into customers’ hands.

*Maybe dangerous.

Well there ya go... but I think it's safe to say that that phone was a colossal flop. Others would speculate that so is BB10 but not nearly to that extent. I would wager a good sum of money to bet that more than 15000 phones sold in the US.

[sidhuk]

Now, i know looking at the gs stat counter is not the smartest thing to gauge but what the heck, Just had first Michelob ultra and here is my beloved Canada as of today. cheers.

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

[plasmid_boy]

I *really* wish I wasn't stuck in the office for work (got a little distracted from it lately ...). It's a very big audience in Europe.
Big exposure.

Ok Sunday night now ... Time for some time-off !

You too?
I have been working full time all weekend. Damn deadlines...
But if I didn't spend so much time reading this thread, I would have gotten it done long ago. Lol

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

true story that happened this evening:
so i was talking with a young cousin of mine in the UK (9 years old-female) and the conversation went something like this:

9 yr old cousin: 'are you getting the new blackberry'
me: 'the new blackberry? which one'
9 yr old cousin: 'the new one that's coming out soon' (i.e the q5)
me: '=O where did u hear about the new blackberry?'
9 yr old cousin: 'i heard about it on tv, and at school my friends are talking about it; they told me they are getting it'

maybe all is not lost if the young ones are showing interest 8)

Same stories last quarter. It's meaningless.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Indeed, there will be no entry level penetration of BB10 because currently there is no entry level BB10 device.

[Gesig Boek]

Now, i know looking at the gs stat counter is not the smartest thing to gauge but what the heck, Just had first Michelob ultra and here is my beloved Canada as of today. cheers.

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

I still dont get why you are not more angry about this gross fraud and manipulation. I assume its due to confirmation bias. A good way to lose money.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

[FocusedBerry]

Now, i know looking at the gs stat counter is not the smartest thing to gauge but what the heck, Just had first Michelob ultra and here is my beloved Canada as of today. cheers.

StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

This makes sense. During the Er cc they mentioned NA has grown in marketshare along with other areas in the world. Albeit not at the rate people were expecting, it's still growth. The Q10 will help this soar further upwards.

[sidhuk]

I still dont get why you are not more angry about this gross fraud and manipulation. I assume its due to confirmation bias. A good way to lose money.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

you mean Gross fraud and manipulation by Blackberry?
that may be the case, however why only Canada? why not rest of the world? or why not USA. USA ip addresses easily available.

[Gesig Boek]

you mean Gross fraud and manipulation by Blackberry?
that may be the case, however why only Canada? why not rest of the world? or why not USA. USA ip addresses easily available.

I am not claiming to know why what is going on is going on, only that the data is patently being falsified, and very few people are recognizing it.

It seems you are arguing that the installed base of BB users could have doubled in Canada in one day. Thats obviously impossible. I think anyone who references this statcounter data positively should actually be considered suspect.

[kfh227]

Statcounter seems pointless.

Posted via CB10

[peter9477]

I am not claiming to know why what is going on is going on, only that the data is patently being falsified, and very few people are recognizing it.

There are other possible explanations. Simpler ones too (Occam's Razor and all).

It seems you are arguing that the installed base of BB users could have doubled in Canada in one day. Thats obviously impossible. I think anyone who references this statcounter data positively should actually be considered suspect.

I agree that counter is quite suspect, but it's possible the suspicious results stem from something other than a technical mistake (though that's probably the most likely explanation) or fraud (not one of the most likely). If they're measuring this based on the browser's "user agent" string, for example, it's possible that an update by BB around the time in question resulted in queries from BB10 devices suddenly being recognized as such when they were previously (mistakenly) treated as iOS queries.

That's just one possible explanation. I could probably think of others. Not going to. Waste of time until there's a reason to think this issue is worth the effort...

[dusdal]

I am not claiming to know why what is going on is going on, only that the data is patently being falsified, and very few people are recognizing it.

It seems you are arguing that the installed base of BB users could have doubled in Canada in one day. Thats obviously impossible. I think anyone who references this statcounter data positively should actually be considered suspect.

It's not saying that installed base doubled. It is saying that of the 15 million websites that it tracks, xx % of those visits were from BlackBerry OS browsers.

Nothing more, nothing less. If you think this information isn't useful for judging BlackBerry uptake that's fine. Why don't you think it's useful?

As for it being falsified, they seem to be quite transparent. Why do you think they have falsified this info?

Posted via CB10

[m1a1mg]

Well there ya go... but I think it's safe to say that that phone was a colossal flop. Others would speculate that so is BB10 but not nearly to that extent. I would wager a good sum of money to bet that more than 15000 phones sold in the US.

God, I hope so. Given the customers available, it best be by a multiple of at least 20.

[Gesig Boek]

There are other possible explanations. Simpler ones too (Occam's Razor and all).
I agree that counter is quite suspect, but it's possible the suspicious results stem from something other than a technical mistake (though that's probably the most likely explanation) or fraud (not one of the most likely). If they're measuring this based on the browser's "user agent" string, for example, it's possible that an update by BB around the time in question resulted in queries from BB10 devices suddenly being recognized as such when they were previously (mistakenly) treated as iOS queries.

Statcounter normally annotates the charts where they make such a change.

See Statcounter's graph for Finland for example, where something weird is going on with S40 data.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

I find it strange that many accept that that shorts will spend millions manipulating the stock market, but not spend thousands manipulating a previously trusted market share resource.

[Gesig Boek]

It's not saying that installed base doubled. It is saying that of the 15 million websites that it tracks, xx % of those visits were from BlackBerry OS browsers.

Nothing more, nothing less. If you think this information isn't useful for judging BlackBerry uptake that's fine. Why don't you think it's useful? As for it being falsified, they seem to be quite transparent. Why do you think they have falsified this info?

Of course I think its not just extremely unreliable, but in fact intentionally misleading. The short time frame the change happened makes it impossible for it to be natural. Did 1/4 of the Canadian iPhone and Android using population suddenly come off their 3 year contracts at the same time and buy BB10 handsets? It is clearly being falsified.

[Zimbad]

cgk, i didn't say 9 year olds will go out an buy phones lol; my point was that an interest is clearly there; my cousin's parents both have iphones and she didn't come to me talking about an iphone or a samsung..she asked me about a blackberry; it's up to BB to capitalize on the interest that's out there

btw, the q5 is �320 sim free BlackBerry Q5 mobile phone - On Various networks | The Carphone Warehouse

[dusdal]

There are a number of more likely explanations.


Plenty of people on old bbos simply don't use the browser because it's quite painful. Thus an existing BlackBerry user could upgrade to BlackBerry10 and start hitting the tracked sites when they never went to them on their phones before.

There was suggestions before of bb10 browser being reported as iOS (apologies no source) if this was remedied on 10.1 it could not only boost bb10 hits but proportionately reduce iOS hits.

There are many other, more rational explanations.

I think we've soundly disproven the analyst short manipulations. They were right on their figures and obviously did their due diligence. Similarly I don't think the most likely answer to the data anomaly here is purposeful falsification.

Posted via CB10