[sparkaction]

Just a thought. If in the future Thor is still around I am concerned that despite glowing results achieved during a future quarter Thor will be unable to deliver the message properly and incapable of delivering the news without sand bagging it. The reason for my concern is that during this most recent quarter Thor did not have the tact to deliver the PlayBook and bbos7 news before or after this financially negative ER. If bringing up bbos7 was suppose to be a positive news then he ought to have provided some positive guidance along with the news like "We are launching a new BBOS 7 device and anticipate world wide demand will be X million devices per quarter. We believe this will translate into Y million in Incremental EBITDA." For the PlayBook, I believe less damage could have been done by announcing that "development of bb10 for pb will continue but in-market pb will not receive a bb10 update instead we will have a SPECIAL hardware upgrade program in place for these devices to upgrade to our future tablet offering."


Rant over.... for now.

[fairfaxnut]

Am I the only person here that is not that worried?



Posted via CB10

I'm with you... value guys get it!! I have my buying hat on. When this forum thread gets negative, it's time to buy.

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[sparkaction]

I'm with you... value guys get it!! I have my buying hat on. When this forum thread gets negative, it's time to buy.

Powered by QNX

Although when there is something fundamental wrong with the business plan and carriers are not delivering on supporting a third player then I would be very hesitant on deploying more capital.

[fairfaxnut]

Sold 2 z10s this weekend in Iowa. My cousins are sick of Apple.

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[fairfaxnut]

Although when there is something fundamental wrong with the business plan and carriers are not delivering on supporting a third player then I would be very hesitant on deploying more capital.

Take a look at their patent port. Add cash, and add a multiple to their QNX holding and you are effectively buying dollars for 50 cents. Your logic is flawed because you are not valuing the assets of the company, only the earnings.

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[Compaqee]

After having time to go over the F/S this weekend, I'm a lot more at ease with what happened friday. Here's a few reasons why......

1) Overall, shipment volumes in asia are up 29% since last quarter! Also to note that revenues overall are up in all regions except NA mainly due to weak traction in the US thus far (Z10 available for 2/3 months in US, Q10 not included ata ll.)

2) Cash continued to increase (Still looking at the taxes recoverable argument made by a few on this forum and other forums & its contributions to the increase in cash)

Somethings I saw however which get me worried are:

1) Inventories made a almost $300 million increase - notes disclosed suggest that this is to prepare to meet for demand of the new BB10 devices - maybe channel stuffing? Potentially the short argument that channels are being stuffed are true?

2) No sell through rate provided in contrast to last quarter where they disclosed this number, the mystery creates some apprehension in me.

It is unfortunate this earnings report doesn't provide a clear enough picture as we had hoped to signify how well BBRY is doing. I'll continue to look through the statements for more info but I'm going to try and enjoy the weekend and add additional comments/thoughts to the mix for Tuesday.

Happy Canada Day Weekend Folks.

=D

[Komoto]

I have been doing a lot of thinking recently. Thoughts below summarized

BlackBerry 10 hardware was brought in to tie the company over during transition.

I think in the following quarters, company will reach breakeven through hardware sales.

Hardware is not the future. We have seen all major producers struggle in the high end market. IPhone 5 disappointed, HTC one disappointed, S4 and even lumia 920.

I think we are starting to see a saturation of the high end phone in the develop world.

New iterations are not compelling people to upgrade so people will wait out until contract is over.

BlackBerry is wise not to get into the price wars here.

Primary aim of hardware is to replace lost service revenues from BlackBerry 7 subscriber loss until BES10 and BBM kick in.

Q10 and Q5 will be better sellers because of keyboard, gives the hardware a USP.

It is wise for BlackBerry to go down the software route. I expect them to completely exit the hardware market in the next 12 to 24 months.

The future of BlackBerry is bes10 mdm solution, USP is NOC.

So the question people should be asking should be: is BES10 the industry leader?

Give me your thoughts, anyone thinking the same way?

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

After having time to go over the F/S this weekend, I'm a lot more at ease with what happened friday. Here's a few reasons why......

1) Overall, shipment volumes in asia are up 29% since last quarter! Also to note that revenues overall are up in all regions except NA mainly due to weak traction in the US thus far (Z10 available for 2/3 months in US, Q10 not included ata ll.)

2) Cash continued to increase (Still looking at the taxes recoverable argument made by a few on this forum and other forums & its contributions to the increase in cash)

Somethings I saw however which get me worried are:

1) Inventories made a almost $300 million increase - notes disclosed suggest that this is to prepare to meet for demand of the new BB10 devices - maybe channel stuffing? Potentially the short argument that channels are being stuffed are true?

2) No sell through rate provided in contrast to last quarter where they disclosed this number, the mystery creates some apprehension in me.

It is unfortunate this earnings report doesn't provide a clear enough picture as we had hoped to signify how well BBRY is doing. I'll continue to look through the statements for more info but I'm going to try and enjoy the weekend and add additional comments/thoughts to the mix for Tuesday.

Happy Canada Day Weekend Folks.

=D

I'm pretty sure the N/A market increased as well. The only market to have a decline was LATAM.

Channel stuffing would have only occurred if they actually shipped those units. Since they did not ship them, they show up as inventory. They are either stocking up for future releases and markets or they have had poor order numbers and have made too many units. Due to real time information they receive regarding demand from their carrier partners, I can't see them ramping up production just to spend and be caught with their pants down in the span of a couple of months. I can only assume that it is the former.

They really didn't provide any sell through numbers last report. They were asked what they were and the answer was 2/3 to 3/4. Quite vague.

Have a great long weekend.

[lifelongbbfan]

The biggest concern for me at least is that they only sold 2.7 million BB10 devices. They need to sell millions more if they want to keep moving.

I still think everyone freaking out is being a little short sighted.

Sure, there's only about 3.7 million BB10 devices in the wild up to the beginning of June. But that's 3.7 million users who will become walking advertisements. The Q5 will only make this happen faster.

Patience is a virtue lost on the modern man.

[m1a1mg]

2) No sell through rate provided in contrast to last quarter where they disclosed this number, the mystery creates some apprehension in me.

Scares me as well. If 60%-75%, as last ER, then I'm concerned. I'd have thought the pent up demand would have moved a lot of phones.

When BBRY had the issue with the Detwiler Fenton story, you'd have thought they might provide actual numbers to show that the report wasn't true. Still nothing. They speak in double talk or just half the story.

[kfh227]

I'm with you... value guys get it!! I have my buying hat on. When this forum thread gets negative, it's time to buy.

Powered by QNX

I am more worried today after trying to better determine FCF. This year though, we should be FCF positive.

[cjcampbell]

Scares me as well. If 60%-75%, as last ER, then I'm concerned. I'd have thought the pent up demand would have moved a lot of phones.

When BBRY had the issue with the Detwiler Fenton story, you'd have thought they might provide actual numbers to show that the report wasn't true. Still nothing. They speak in double talk or just half the story.

They reported to the SEC so there is no way they'd give us incorrect information. Also, what other carrier has given reports of how many units are returned? None. If they had given a number, and although in line with the norm and other handsets, it would have seemed extremely high as none of us know what the norm is and therefore have no benchmark to gage it from.

[kfh227]

I'm pretty sure the N/A market increased as well. The only market to have a decline was LATAM.

Channel stuffing would have only occurred if they actually shipped those units. Since they did not ship them, they show up as inventory. They are either stocking up for future releases and markets or they have had poor order numbers and have made too many units. Due to real time information they receive regarding demand from their carrier partners, I can't see them ramping up production just to spend and be caught with their pants down in the span of a couple of months. I can only assume that it is the former.

They really didn't provide any sell through numbers last report. They were asked what they were and the answer was 2/3 to 3/4. Quite vague.

Have a great long weekend.

I think it must be cheaper to warehouse a million phones than to produce those phones slower to deliver using just in time methodologies.

[m1a1mg]

They reported to the SEC so there is no way they'd give us incorrect information. Also, what other carrier has given reports of how many units are returned? None. If they had given a number, and although in line with the norm and other handsets, it would have seemed extremely high as none of us know what the norm is and therefore have no benchmark to gage it from.

Then they should have said nothing, other than the story wasn't true. As it was, they threw out some vague crap about "normal numbers". It's the way they address things that bothers me.

Same/same with the sell-through. They provide vague numbers last quarter and nothing this quarter? It leads nervous investors like me to become more nervous.

[cjcampbell]

I think it must be cheaper to warehouse a million phones than to produce those phones slower to deliver using just in time methodologies.

It very well could be. I really have no idea so there could be many reasons for the upped production and upped inventory levels.

[BlackistheBerry]

It very well could be. I really have no idea so there could be many reasons for the upped production and upped inventory levels.

Probably for the q5 launch? They probably have them ready to ship as many of those as required by the demand.
And I believe it will have good reception in the other markets where the phones are normally bought outright, without help from carriers.

[cjcampbell]

Then they should have said nothing, other than the story wasn't true. As it was, they threw out some vague crap about "normal numbers". It's the way they address things that bothers me.

Same/same with the sell-through. They provide vague numbers last quarter and nothing this quarter? It leads nervous investors like me to become more nervous.

They have to say something. They were accused of something very damning. To come out and say that return numbers are in line with industry standards and inline, if not better than, their own expectations is a perfectly valid response to the accusation. To say "not true" and just walk away with that would have raised even more uncertainty as it would leave the door open to still speculate very high returns, and much higher than what was actually happening.

Apple, Samsung, Nokia, and others, report shipped numbers as that is what adds to the bottom line. We need to get away from the sell through in order to be gaged on the same criteria as others. Same goes for subscribers. BB got away from it in the past but brought back the metric later. I wasn't following back then and haven't looked up the reasoning behind it, but I can only assume it made things look better when they were sliding. Kinda like "hey... I know we aren't making much but look.... we're still adding subs so we're still very relevant" scenario.

[cjcampbell]

Probably for the q5 launch? They probably have them ready to ship as many of those as required by the demand.
And I believe it will have good reception in the other markets where the phones are normally bought outright, without help from carriers.

Could be and that is one assumption. At this point, however, I will simply wait to see. Like I said, it could be any number of reasons.

[chrysaurora]

Sure, there's only about 3.7 million BB10 devices in the wild up to the beginning of June. But that's 3.7 million users who will become walking advertisements. The Q5 will only make this happen faster.

Don't fully agree with that. Well, I agree that there are 3.7M users that have POTENTIAL to be walking advertisement. But many of these 3.7m users are pissed off.

BlackBerry is not utilizing 'us' (the fans and customers). There are numerous threads and posts here about feature requests etc. But BlackBerry is NOT prioritizing those requests.

For eg: advanced notification profiles is one of the most requested feature but still BlackBerry has not implemented it (4+ months after z10 launch).

If users tell them what they want, and yet BlackBerry decides to give them something else, the users are bound to get pissed.

I've said it many times and i'll say it again. This is what BlackBerry needs to do -

1. Scour forums and make a list of top 25 to top 50 feature requests. Most requested features.
2. Deliver them in a month or so (< 30 days, ideally).
This will make existing customers very happy. And then we (the existing customers) will SELL like HELL.

Unfortunately BlackBerry is not doing this. They have their own timetable. Instead of listening and prioritizing features that are REALLY important to end customers, they develop features by their own timetable. They don't prioritize what customers tell them!



Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[m1a1mg]

They have to say something.....snip

Guess we just won't agree on that one. No harm, no foul.

Apple, Samsung, Nokia, and others, report shipped numbers as that is what adds to the bottom line. We need to get away from the sell through in order to be gaged on the same criteria as others. Same goes for subscribers. BB got away from it in the past but brought back the metric later. I wasn't following back then and haven't looked up the reasoning behind it, but I can only assume it made things look better when they were sliding. Kinda like "hey... I know we aren't making much but look.... we're still adding subs so we're still very relevant" scenario.

It becomes confusing when you use something one quarter and not the next. Such as dropping the subscriber numbers. I understand the reason, but changes in reporting usually aren't seen as good things.

Finally, forgive me for posting Apple stuff in this thread, but:

Apple Reports Second Quarter Results
37.4 Million iPhones Sold; 19.5 Million iPads Sold

CUPERTINO, California—April 23, 2013—Apple� today announced financial results for its fiscal 2013 second quarter ended March 30, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $43.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $9.5 billion, or $10.09 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $39.2 billion and net profit of $11.6 billion, or $12.30 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 37.5 percent compared to 47.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 66 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The Company sold 37.4 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 35.1 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold 19.5 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 11.8 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold just under 4 million Macs, compared to 4 million in the year-ago quarter.

[plasmid_boy]

Don't fully agree with that. Well, I agree that there are 3.7M users that have POTENTIAL to be walking advertisement. But many of these 3.7m users are pissed off.

BlackBerry is not utilizing 'us' (the fans and customers). There are numerous threads and posts here about feature requests etc. But BlackBerry is NOT prioritizing those requests.

For eg: advanced notification profiles is one of the most requested feature but still BlackBerry has not implemented it (4+ months after z10 launch).

If users tell them what they want, and yet BlackBerry decides to give them something else, the users are bound to get pissed.

I've said it many times and i'll say it again. This is what BlackBerry needs to do -

1. Scour forums and make a list of top 25 to top 50 feature requests. Most requested features.
2. Deliver them in a month or so (< 30 days, ideally).
This will make existing customers very happy. And then we (the existing customers) will SELL like HELL.

Unfortunately BlackBerry is not doing this. They have their own timetable. Instead of listening and prioritizing features that are REALLY important to end customers, they develop features by their own timetable. They don't prioritize what customers tell them!



Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

All that, plus AT&T customers are still stuck with 10.0!
I had to sideload to get 10.1, but not everything is working properly (my icloud for example). Why not just put the latest OS version (call it developer, beta, gamma, or whatever version) into BBworld or on a website somewhere so that everyone can download regardless of what individual carrier's priorities are.

[cjcampbell]

Guess we just won't agree on that one. No harm, no foul.



It becomes confusing when you use something one quarter and not the next. Such as dropping the subscriber numbers. I understand the reason, but changes in reporting usually aren't seen as good things.

Finally, forgive me for posting Apple stuff in this thread, but:

Apple Reports Second Quarter Results
37.4 Million iPhones Sold; 19.5 Million iPads Sold

CUPERTINO, California—April 23, 2013—Apple� today announced financial results for its fiscal 2013 second quarter ended March 30, 2013. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $43.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $9.5 billion, or $10.09 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $39.2 billion and net profit of $11.6 billion, or $12.30 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 37.5 percent compared to 47.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 66 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The Company sold 37.4 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 35.1 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold 19.5 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 11.8 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold just under 4 million Macs, compared to 4 million in the year-ago quarter.

No problem with disagreeing. Some of it is simply a matter of opinion and we are all welcome to have one. As for the Apple stuff.... once it is is shipped, it's considered sold. Don't quote me on this but I would assume that it's a matter of semantics. Of course I could be wrong and those are the sell through but seeing as they sell direct via their retail stores and online, coupled with carriers, they would probably group them as one number and call it sold.

[Superfly_FR]

maybe its where I'm from but I don't know anyone that follows these races....

I *really* wish I wasn't stuck in the office for work (got a little distracted from it lately ...). It's a very big audience in Europe.
Big exposure.

Ok Sunday night now ... Time for some time-off !

[_dimi_]

Don't fully agree with that. Well, I agree that there are 3.7M users that have POTENTIAL to be walking advertisement. But many of these 3.7m users are pissed off.

BlackBerry is not utilizing 'us' (the fans and customers). There are numerous threads and posts here about feature requests etc. But BlackBerry is NOT prioritizing those requests.

For eg: advanced notification profiles is one of the most requested feature but still BlackBerry has not implemented it (4+ months after z10 launch).

If users tell them what they want, and yet BlackBerry decides to give them something else, the users are bound to get pissed.

I've said it many times and i'll say it again. This is what BlackBerry needs to do -

1. Scour forums and make a list of top 25 to top 50 feature requests. Most requested features.
2. Deliver them in a month or so (< 30 days, ideally).
This will make existing customers very happy. And then we (the existing customers) will SELL like HELL.

Unfortunately BlackBerry is not doing this. They have their own timetable. Instead of listening and prioritizing features that are REALLY important to end customers, they develop features by their own timetable. They don't prioritize what customers tell them!



Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

All I hear is a frustrated investor.. not a frustrated customer. They ARE focusing on what is important: roll-out of Q10 and Q5, cross-platform BBM, roll-out of BBM channels, BBM money and BES10,... Some of the feature requests you mentioned will come with BB10.2 which should be on the A10.

All of the above will prove to be much more important to BlackBerry (and eventually their customers / investors) than 30 day roll-outs of features that will in reality take months due to individual carrier approvals.

Posted via CB10

[FastLane228]

All I hear is a frustrated investor.. not a frustrated customer. They ARE focusing on what is important: roll-out of Q10 and Q5, cross-platform BBM, roll-out of BBM channels, BBM money and BES10,... Some of the feature requests you mentioned will come with BB10.2 which should be on the A10.

All of the above will prove to be much more important to BlackBerry (and eventually their customers / investors) than 30 day roll-outs of features that will in reality take months due to individual carrier approvals.

Posted via CB10

Well that summed it up *

BBM CHANNEL C000EF854 < bbry stocks*C0004ABC9<Pin friends meet