[spiller]

Th just seemed so happy at bb live and milken, then the solid ground statement. The tone today really worried me, he seemed down to me. What changed so much in that short time period, esp considering the actual quarter wrapped up 4 weeks ago.

Probably really wanted to have a partnership deal to announce on ER day to lesson the blow and it didn't materialize....

[m1a1mg]

I've been talking with a friend who works at the Pentagon. I wouldn't put too much faith in big ticket items coming from the DoD this year or next. Given the announcement this week of huge cuts to the Army, he says to expect it from the other branches as well. Remember, if the Congress can't agree, the follow on sequestration cuts are much bigger than the first.

[bungaboy]

That is a weak argument. Only a paper loss until you change to cash. If my portfolio is 27% less than it was before earnings, I have 27% less equity in my savings. That to me is a real-time $ value and a 27% loss.

I didn't panic sell, I'm still in, and expect a 15% recovery over the next couple of months.

Not really an argument as it is fact. I am way down "on paper" but I, fortunately, have the luxury of the time to wait to see if I can lessen the "paper losses".

[spiller]

I think the lesson moving forward is to heed both the bull and bear side with equal weight and measure. Today's events surprised more than a few and I truly don't feel that the report and call had 100% to do with it. Tell me I have a tinfoil hat on but there weren't enough negatives to it to drop it as it did.

I think fair value loss was around 17-20% based on the early PM drop. The rest was just a rush to sell out of the gates without looking closer. So I think we should recover 7% next week.

[spiller]

Shorted 2000$ of shares yday. Made some money.

Posted via CB10

Good call. Since you aren't directly 'rubbing it in' I will take that at face value. Congrats on your gains.

[Bugmapper]

That is a weak argument. Only a paper loss until you change to cash. If my portfolio is 27% less than it was before earnings, I have 27% less equity in my savings. That to me is a real-time $ value and a 27% loss.

I didn't panic sell, I'm still in, and expect a 15% recovery over the next couple of months.

Yeah, it's the same argument as saying that if the real estate market tanks and the house you have a $350,000 mortgage on is suddenly worth $265,000 it's only a 'paper' loss unless you sell your house. It means you are trapped in that house for an extra 10 years before you can retire and downsize, or whatever your life plans are. That 'paper' loss has 'real world' effects.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[take99]

Sorry, this page is no longer available.
You will be redirected to the Barrons.com home page shortly.

Try this one the story is the third one down

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/?$LinkEXTERNALQueryString$

[helopilot06]

Yeah, it's the same argument as saying that if the real estate market tanks and the house you have a $350,000 mortgage on is suddenly worth $265,000 it's only a 'paper' loss unless you sell your house. It means you are trapped in that house for an extra 10 years before you can retire and downsize, or whatever your life plans are. That 'paper' loss has 'real world' effects.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

you are right. there are real world effects. but if u can't stomach the loss don't gamble the money. so many times people dump their savings into stock and loose it all thinking its safer and easy money. honestly its a polished horse race and we are just educated gamblers lol. well some of us . I hate seeing people loose money on here as y'all are mostly all great people and this thread has been a great place to chat. but that's part of the territory of investing.

[chrysaurora]

Folks,

I know what happened was hard (I am down over 80% because most of my portfolio is options). But there is going to be a short-squeeze. So, price will rise again. Enough to cut your losses in half (if not break even).

Why is there going to be a short-squeeze? Well, shorts wont make any money if they don't cover. So, where the sotck is at right now $10.5ish, a lot of shorts are in profit. To book their profits, they'd cover and that'd drive price up.

That's my logic. Unless, of course if my logic is faulty.

[cjcampbell]

My head hurts

Posted via CB10

[YangFui]

Folks,

I know what happened was hard (I am down over 80% because most of my portfolio is options). But there is going to be a short-squeeze. So, price will rise again. Enough to cut your losses in half (if not break even).

Why is there going to be a short-squeeze? Well, shorts wont make any money if they don't cover. So, where the sotck is at right now $10.5ish, a lot of shorts are in profit. To book their profits, they'd cover and that'd drive price up.

That's my logic. Unless, of course if my logic is faulty.

I think your logic is flawless but the shorts are faulty. What I mean by this is that the shorts might hold out for more profit, so I don't know that we're going to see the kind of covering we would like to see. Of course, some shorts will buy-to-cover but some longs ("weak hands") will also sell as the stock price recovers. Short buying (covering) coupled with long selling could cancel-out each other.

[kfh227]

Am I the only person here that is not that worried?



Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

Moving forward,
1. I dont think company missed earnings. Their projections were break even this quarter and if the Venezuela payments had made it in time it would have been very close to break even.
2. Cash position has gotton better, even better than ever i guess?
3. 4 more products to come, Q5 is just realeased. One of these 4 may catch consumer eyes.
4. Bes10 is just going trough trials with 18,000 companies. There is free trial untill the end of this year (i think). Without Bes10, these corporations cant buy BB10 phones or services for iphones and androids (BYOD).This is the top most important area where blackberry must succeed and this card hasnt unfold yet.
5. Q10 is in most countries, just about now. It is an expensive phone for non corporate customers. Large corporations cant buy this untill The back end is upgarded and majority consumer cant afford untill their contract is up, so wait and see.
6. Blackberry is coming up with one new BBos phone, not sure where i read it but i did post the link in this forum. This is to retain the existing customers on cheap plans and may save on the construction cost.
7. The large corporations are not only looking at the bb10 phones, they are looking at bb10 mobile solution as a complete system provider. Meaning end to end solution.
8. The automotive side yet to be explored.
9. BBM channels, BBM money reaction/income yet to be unfold. Remeber, blackberry may have small BB10 market share but, the moment BBM is opened the the other platforms, now you have a secure manageable channel to the whole world.
10. The BBM it self could be worth a billion dollar or more, a year from now. Some fake BBM was down loaded 100,000 times in few hours on android. Corusity and charisma about BBM is all there.
11. I am not counting on the side deals with cheap phone manufacturers to build cheap phones.
12. The BB10 phone it self is a great quality phone, once people use it, chances are they like it. When at costco, my iphone very rarely can make phone calls but my sons z10 has no issue what so ever. And i do remebr my curve and bold had better reception in the country side, it was very frustratiing when i got my first iphone. Things like these are more important when toy factor is worn off.
13. Android 4.2 update is still coming. That should solve the app shortage issue.
14. Majority of the cards should unfold by this time next year or atleast some of it by this christmas.
Therefore i am going to add more shares to my portfolio. I do swing trade on 30% of my blackberry shares to take advantages of the short term market volatility to keep the cost down, for example, i did sell 6000 shares day before the earnings.
This stock is shorts game and speculators make it even better for them. I dont mean retail shorts. I mean the people with some serious market making abilities. Here is just one example: kris ‏@Tweettokris 27 Jun
$BBRY $3B short. short/dump10milShares @Loss of .30c=$3M. doit 52Times over52 WKS=$156milLoss if-any? cashFlow+keepBBdown. And why wouldnt the competition want to adopt that strategy? This for cheaper than to promote their own products. Why wouldnt market maker do it them self? I havnt counted the brokrage fee generated by all of this etc. these are the reasons that many times charts dont make sense when it comes to BBRY shares. Or the true market value caomparision for that matter.
How ever, as i said before. Blackberry trully has to perform, to me blackberry is performing just fine as a new company but is not good enough to over come the market because it is facing extra ordinary challanges.
For its's share price to earn fare market value, it needs a market vulture on board. Who is street smart first and book smart second. The usual street smarts dont go against other street smarts. Blackberry is not stock market street smart so for. It is a technical/software genius company. There is not a single company out there who still has what Blackberry has.
Therefore i am in.
LOL disclosure, i wrote this article my self with missing header, few/lots of grammer and spelling mistakes. I am long and 30% swing blackberry.
I must add here that i liked the passive/optimistic tone that TH has set during the earnings. I wish they had kept it that passive during the last few months. Market speculations, ups and down are one thing but he should have stayed passive to cool down every one, that "may have prevented all the bull perdictions". Now expectations are low but stock paid the price for it short term. This drop might give oppurtunity to shorts to exit gracefully and leave company alone for few more dollars upswing for the next round. This drop may have reduced number of blackberry enemies in the market. Noticed how the price was controlled around $10:50 with almost 130mill shares traded on friday? This is why brokerage firms almost always have positions in high volume share targets. They have some shares as no cost to them which are unslod shares and just in the unsold inventory. Plus the have their own shares. For brokerage firms this their inventory just like any other business. They make money if shares exchange hands, regardless what price is. Price movement brings more trading mean more business for them. Now the price has gone down enough. They have to bring it up to create more action. So large block dumping to bring down the price may slow down with in next week.

I know my head hurts too. Lol

[zander]

Folks,

I know what happened was hard (I am down over 80% because most of my portfolio is options). But there is going to be a short-squeeze. So, price will rise again. Enough to cut your losses in half (if not break even).

Why is there going to be a short-squeeze? Well, shorts wont make any money if they don't cover. So, where the sotck is at right now $10.5ish, a lot of shorts are in profit. To book their profits, they'd cover and that'd drive price up.

That's my logic. Unless, of course if my logic is faulty.

I wouldn't bank on it. People have been crying "short squeeze" from their roof tops since the beginning of the year, including financial print/audio/TV media. Where is it? Nowhere in sight. In order for there to be a short squeeze, first the fundamentals have to warrant it. Gues what? BB has repeatedly dropped the ball on those fundamentals over the past months and the latest Q rport was just another rotten apple added into that fementing basket.

Bottom line, any investment in BB should not be predicated on some "hope" of a future short squeeze. I just don't see it happening any more. They dropped the ball big time.

[Superfly_FR]

The PlayBook was a mistake from day 1 IMHO. An adjunct device that needs to run through your handheld? That's the very concept Palm was about to try with the Foleo notebook. They waited until the day before launch to officially kill it. Talk about throwing money down a rathole! BlackBerry started PlayBook development with this exact same approach, only later trying to add stand-alone capabilities to the device. And they did this in the age of iPad. Face it - they were doomed from the start with PlayBook. Sketchy concept, incredibly poor execution.

I can hear that.
But that's not Heins and current team that launched the PlayBook, please remember. They had to deal with this - your words - "mistake".

[Komoto]

Am I the only person here that is not that worried?



Posted via CB10

My only regret is being all in now so I can't add more at these levels!

I still think it is a good investment with huge upside potential.

ER didnt change much.

Only thing that has changed is that we know for sure that PlayBook will not get BlackBerry 10. As an investor I don't care that much as a consumer, a little bit but my Z10 basically substituted that.

Apart from that nothing has changed. Can anyone else name something that has?

Bb10 are selling around 1 mil per month and that is the all touch screen. I am sure Q10 will be much better seller.

I always believe you should be willing to re evaluate whether things have changed and test your thesis.

Posted via CB10

[Bugmapper]

Am I the only person here that is not that worried?



Posted via CB10

Not worried, just really disappointed at the result of the 'staged' rollout.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[Superfly_FR]

Not really an argument as it is fact. I am way down "on paper" but I, fortunately, have the luxury of the time to wait to see if I can lessen the "paper losses".

That's what "I'm so long I can wait" means in my point of view.
There's no loss because I do not plan to use this money into anything else; it's "available cash" I could have spent for leisure or such. I do understand that it might not be the case for others, but the spirit of this particular thread it is. I for one made some savings (I didn't buy the brand new Taylor Made golf clubs I was salivating for) and used some unexpected bonuses to grab my 550 shares. Alright, I can live with that. And wait. As long as necessary.

Ok gang, I'm out now. Enjoy your weekend !

Edit : just dropped in my mbox: the full E.R transcription.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526...all-transcript

We will indicate forward-looking statements by using words such as expect, plan, anticipate, estimate, may, will, should, forecast, intend, believe, continue, and similar expressions. All forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties and assumptions we have made.

No time to rewind the thread ... but you might know what to do with this

[rebekahlynnharrison]

Packing almost done now. Getting ready to head out for camping this week.
I am thinking of putting a wee bit more in at these prices, but will wait to see if we have any
further downside. I said before I wouldn't put any more in unless it was single digit, so I'll
wait abit and see where this goes. BTW: So very glad to hear some of your
encouraging comments, this loss stings but having a place to vent abit and be in the
company of others who feel your pain is therapeutic in and of itself.

[BlackistheBerry]

Not really an argument as it is fact. I am way down "on paper" but I, fortunately, have the luxury of the time to wait to see if I can lessen the "paper losses".

Very true.
I was down around 10k on paper a month or so ago with BlackBerry. Didn't matter. Last week, I was up. Didn't matter.
Was just talking to someone about a housing market crash in Canada being imminent. I don't care about it, as I am not hoping to sell my house anytime soon.
As long as you don't need the $$, what matters is the price when you cash out.

Especially with stocks, you can always be up or down on a daily basis.
What will mater is where you are when you hit the sell button.

[BlackistheBerry]

Yeah, it's the same argument as saying that if the real estate market tanks and the house you have a $350,000 mortgage on is suddenly worth $265,000 it's only a 'paper' loss unless you sell your house. It means you are trapped in that house for an extra 10 years before you can retire and downsize, or whatever your life plans are. That 'paper' loss has 'real world' effects.

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

Posted the exact same thing before reading this!

[njblackberry]

Not so quick there cowboy, the PB was the test device for all future QNX branded products. They did a lousy job of bringing it to market in every way possible but the birth of BB 10 made this exercise worthwhile. Let's face it, would anyone think of sinking millions into a bunch of $ 99 dollar tablets that won't produce any future revenue back the company; as a good business decision? They did the right thing and I only wish they would work with BB 2.0 and get it right, we don't need BB 10 to enjoy this $ 99 product. As for Bridge, what a great idea, I still use my PB in the car all the time, and one on the boat, and with the HDMI output it gets better. Not to mention using my old BB 9900 as a remote control. I store movies on my second PB and watch them while on the road from the comfort of my bed. The Bridge feature is too cool to be true, no second data plan, I walk back to the car, search the net and head out to do some shopping. It is seamless and perfect for $ 99.

The Playbook was a financial disaster for BlackBerry and distracted them from their primary mission - making and selling phones. If it was the basis for classic RIM decisions like no native e-mail, limiting sales to existing BlackBerry customers, right as RIM was heading into the tank.

I am happy you like your Playbook. But it was a disaster.

[abouthsu]

Wow - taking things a bit personally. No one knows or can even guess how many Z10s or Q10s will sell. Estimates have been wrong. Pronouncements of sales (mainly on enthusiast sites - hint hint) are dramatically overreaching.

You have no more clue about future sales than anyone else - including the person you are bashing.

Indeed no one will know the future sales or to even guess how many but i agreed with M8 here that at the very least make that assumption base on some data/information. most of us are in this together, sharing the good or bad experiences, honestly if he is entitle to his opinion and i'm gladly to add more shares to my list if he can't intelligently vent/bash.

[Compaqee]

Very true.
I was down around 10k on paper a month or so ago with BlackBerry. Didn't matter. Last week, I was up. Didn't matter.
Was just talking to someone about a housing market crash in Canada being imminent. I don't care about it, as I am not hoping to sell my house anytime soon.
As long as you don't need the $$, what matters is the price when you cash out.

Especially with stocks, you can always be up or down on a daily basis.
What will mater is where you are when you hit the sell button.

Thanks for the perspective. BBRY will fund my first home purchase =)....in 5+ years.

Long.
Cheers!

[JLagoon]

Here is some crazy TA for you!! She is right if you have the guts to hang in there. He is totally wrong, so ..............

Can BlackBerry Make A Rebound? | Talking Numbers - Yahoo! Finance

Hi Morgan; was the stock shorted as heavily in 2003 as well?