[lcjr]

Wow, what a day, huh?? I haven't posted this much in a long time. I'm really hoping that after people get some air and let this settle down some they will return to this thread. I'm going to go home in a few and mow the lawn, then have several beers while occasionally jumping into the pool and throwing some darts on the patio. Anybody care to chat later on I'll have my phone and Playbook out on the patio.

Stay safe and stay Blackberry!!

[cjcampbell]

Not until he closes out his short contracts.

Already did to $18

Posted via CB10

[tiziano27]

I have three comments:

1)
Misek said:
"..Our updated SOTP analysis leads us to cut our target to $18 (MDM BYOD $12, Core Services $3, Hardware $3),"

So he thinks the company value is in BYOD. BlackBerry is leader in security for BlackBerry handsets, but they are a newcomer in BYOD, playing catch up with established competitors in a highly competitive market. So this revenue is really uncertain. Microsoft is in the same position as BlackBerry, launching a new service for BYOD this year, and they also have a big advantage, they bring superior security for Windows notebooks and tablets which are considered mobile devices too.

2)
People is praising FCF of q1. The truth is that most of the FCF came from "Income taxes receivable". Removing this non-recurring item, FCF falls from 630m to 66m, almost zero!.
So the real cash burn starts this quarter, as the CEO said in the EC, more cash will be needed to the launch of q10 in 140+ countries, q5 in 50+ countries, the launch of BBM in other platforms and the expansion of BES10. The question is how fast they will burn cash in this new stage of their plan.

3)
Until now the smartphone was used in companies primary for communication and documents access. The smartphone adoption in the business is entering in the next stage. Companies are investing more money in developing in-house applications for their employees and business partners. If companies use BYOD, they will develop their apps for iOS and Android which are more popular. Adoption of BB10 will be even more difficult, because of the cost of development and testing the same apps for a third ecosystem. There are some stats which show developer interest for BB10 in companies is even lower than Windows Phone and Surface.

I think BlackBerry still has a small window of opportunity but is closing fast. I became too pessimistic, won't post anymore. Good luck.

[JonCBK]

Reasons why I have a little confidence.

Last quarter didn't have much chance for Qwerty to shine. Qwerty has been abandoned by the major players. But there are still folks who want it. It is going to be the phone you see out there because it is distinctive from the iPhone knock offs.

Last quarter did have BBRY competing against the recently launched GS4 and HTC One. As far as I know there are no such major launches coming this quarter or next until iPhone 5S comes out. Both HTC and Samsung are going to launch once a year it seems.

The Z10 didn't sell great in terms of units, but I also didn't see huge price cuts for a long time. And it is still selling as a $100 phone on Verizon today. T-Mobile has it as a $531 phone. The GS4 is a $571 phone, but point of reference. That's not bad this long after the Z10s launch.

Android seems to be getting less secure as things go on. While BB10 seems to be getting more secure.

Also with cash flow increasing, I'm not too concerned about drastic future losses. I always thought this was a stock that could drop in half in worst case scenario. We've taken 30% of that hit, so can't get beat up too much more.

[cjcampbell]

Ahhhhh. Finally. I needed this after today. Cheers to all of you, both negative and positive!

Posted via CB10

[Foliebergere]

Wow, what a day, huh?? I haven't posted this much in a long time. I'm really hoping that after people get some air and let this settle down some they will return to this thread. I'm going to go home in a few and mow the lawn, then have several beers while occasionally jumping into the pool and throwing some darts on the patio. Anybody care to chat later on I'll have my phone and Playbook out on the patio.

Stay safe and stay Blackberry!!

lcjr, you sure have a great attitude on life! You inspire me. I will have a glass of wine and watch the rain fill my nice big pool!

[scr]

I don't understand why they didn't disclose about this Venezuela issue a soon as they knew about it, It would have saved them a lot of problems today, even though the report would still be bad the market would have been better prepared for it, I even believe they are forced to disclose that kind of information as soon as possible, would not surprise me if someone tried to sue them for this. The communication with investors/shareholders is really horrible.

Actually I read pretty big article about it 1 or 2 days before ER. Just not sure where it was, I think bloomberg.com . I didn't see it a big issue cause I beleived that it's gonna be nothing comparing to what company gonna get from devices were sold

[tygros]

I have three comments:

1)
Misek said:
"..Our updated SOTP analysis leads us to cut our target to $18 (MDM BYOD $12, Core Services $3, Hardware $3),"

So he thinks the company value is in BYOD. BlackBerry is leader in security for BlackBerry handsets, but they are a newcomer in BYOD, playing catch up with established competitors in a highly competitive market. So this revenue is really uncertain. Microsoft is in the same position as BlackBerry, launching a new service for BYOD this year, and they also have a big advantage, they bring superior security for Windows notebooks and tablets which are considered mobile devices too.

2)
People is praising FCF of q1. The truth is that most of the FCF came from "Income taxes receivable". Removing this non-recurring item, FCF falls from 630m to 66m, almost zero!.
So the real cash burn starts this quarter, as the CEO said in the EC, more cash will be needed to the launch of q10 in 140+ countries, q5 in 50+ countries, the launch of BBM in other platforms and the expansion of BES10. The question is how fast they will burn cash in this new stage of their plan.

3)
Until now the smartphone was used in companies primary for communication and documents access. The smartphone adoption in the business is entering in the next stage. Companies are investing more money in developing in-house applications for their employees and business partners. If companies use BYOD, they will develop their apps for iOS and Android which are more popular. Adoption of BB10 will be even more difficult, because of the cost of development and testing the same apps for a third ecosystem. There are some stats which show developer interest for BB10 in companies is even lower than Windows Phone and Surface.

I think BlackBerry still has a small window of opportunity but is closing fast. I became too pessimistic, won't post anymore. Good luck.

2. I think you looked at the wrong year for #2 - Income Tax receivables were $33 Million for Q1 2014 according to their filing - just double checked.
3. BES10 solves this - it is multi-platform system (iOS, Android, BB, etc), and unlike Microsoft, it's a tried and trusted services used on a million+ devices worldwide already. No need to scale it up. Think of it as just a new OS - like MS roles out every time they want to lose customers .

[kfh227]

Investopedia explains 'Earnings Per Share - EPS'
Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share's price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.


Perfect, thanks.

Why don't companies with negative eps numbers come for free and with cash on the side?

Yes, if fast money on cnbc is ones source for information, you are correct. But most value investors don't look at it. Seth Klarman even publicly stated that he hasn't looked at earnings for a company in years.

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

2. I think you looked at the wrong year for #2 - Income Tax receivables were $33 Million for Q1 2014 according to their filing - just double checked.
3. BES10 solves this - it is multi-platform system (iOS, Android, BB, etc), and unlike Microsoft, it's a tried and trusted services used on a million+ devices worldwide already. No need to scale it up. Think of it as just a new OS - like MS roles out every time they want to lose customers .

Wasn't the 630 number cash from ops, not fcf?

Posted via CB10

[JLagoon]

The closest occurrence of today action is December 21, 2012. It was an ER on Friday as well. Why a $4 drop almost exactly? I don't know how to understand this chart; looking forward to Morgan's and others' explanation.

Chart:

[kfh227]

Investopedia explains 'Free Cash Flow - FCF'
Some believe that Wall Street focuses myopically on earnings while ignoring the "real" cash that a firm generates. Earnings can often be clouded by accounting gimmicks, but it's tougher to fake cash flow. For this reason, some investors believe that FCF gives a much clearer view of the ability to generate cash (and thus profits).

It is important to note that negative free cash flow is not bad in itself. If free cash flow is negative, it could be a sign that a company is making large investments. If these investments earn a high return, the strategy has the potential to pay off in the long run.

FCF is a better indicator than the P/E Ratio and here's why - Read Free Cash Flow Yield: The Best Fundamental Indicator and FCF: Free,But Not Always Easy

Posted via CB10

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freecashflow.asp

[take99]

As if today wasnt enough

DoD awards contract for app store, mobile device management

By Jared Serbu
The Defense Department has awarded a Bethesda, Md., firm a contract to build DoD's first enterprise-wide mobile application store and mobile-device management system, officials at the Defense Information Systems Agency said Friday.
The contract is a significant milestone in the Pentagon's long-anticipated rollout of a new generation of smart devices and the execution of the commercial mobile-device implementation plan DoD rolled out earlier this year.

The plan called for the deployment of technology that could secure and manage mobile devices in a centralized fashion across the military services and agencies as a prerequisite to the widespread deployment of handhelds such as Apple's iOS devices and Google's Android.

"A strong MDM capability lets us provision and manage devices with best-practice protections, trusted platform configuration and continuous monitoring," Douglas Gardner, the technical director in DISA's program executive office for mission assurance, said in a statement.

Under the award, Digital Management, Inc. could receive up to $16 million over three years if the government exercises all of its options under the contract, beginning with a $2.9 million first-year base period.

A spokeswoman said the company was precluded under the contract from publicly discussing its plans to implement the MDM and app store, but the initial request for proposals DISA issued last October required that the mobility management scheme support at least Android and iOS devices, with BlackBerry and Windows Phone support as optional features. The RFP characterized DoD's first MDM incarnation as a "short-term" solution, supporting at least 162,500 devices and up to 100,000 more by the end of the contract.

The MDM will serve as a "traffic cop," provisioning, managing and, if necessary, wiping clean any of the mobile devices connected to DoD's new mobile infrastructure. The app store also provided for in the contract will be a secure, internal storefront designed to serve the entire military and make sure that only approved apps can be installed on approved devices.

Last month, DISA cleared the way for revamping of DoD's arduous security review process for IT hardware, and the department eventually hopes to clear most devices within 30 days of their introduction to the commercial marketplace.

[cjcampbell]

As if today wasnt enough

DoD awards contract for app store, mobile device management

By Jared Serbu
The Defense Department has awarded a Bethesda, Md., firm a contract to build DoD's first enterprise-wide mobile application store and mobile-device management system, officials at the Defense Information Systems Agency said Friday.
The contract is a significant milestone in the Pentagon's long-anticipated rollout of a new generation of smart devices and the execution of the commercial mobile-device implementation plan DoD rolled out earlier this year.

The plan called for the deployment of technology that could secure and manage mobile devices in a centralized fashion across the military services and agencies as a prerequisite to the widespread deployment of handhelds such as Apple's iOS devices and Google's Android.

"A strong MDM capability lets us provision and manage devices with best-practice protections, trusted platform configuration and continuous monitoring," Douglas Gardner, the technical director in DISA's program executive office for mission assurance, said in a statement.

Under the award, Digital Management, Inc. could receive up to $16 million over three years if the government exercises all of its options under the contract, beginning with a $2.9 million first-year base period.

A spokeswoman said the company was precluded under the contract from publicly discussing its plans to implement the MDM and app store, but the initial request for proposals DISA issued last October required that the mobility management scheme support at least Android and iOS devices, with BlackBerry and Windows Phone support as optional features. The RFP characterized DoD's first MDM incarnation as a "short-term" solution, supporting at least 162,500 devices and up to 100,000 more by the end of the contract.

The MDM will serve as a "traffic cop," provisioning, managing and, if necessary, wiping clean any of the mobile devices connected to DoD's new mobile infrastructure. The app store also provided for in the contract will be a secure, internal storefront designed to serve the entire military and make sure that only approved apps can be installed on approved devices.

Last month, DISA cleared the way for revamping of DoD's arduous security review process for IT hardware, and the department eventually hopes to clear most devices within 30 days of their introduction to the commercial marketplace.

I had a feeling that we weren't going to get it but I thought Fixmo would.

[Korepab]

As if today wasnt enough

DoD awards contract for app store, mobile device management

By Jared Serbu
The Defense Department has awarded a Bethesda, Md., firm a contract to build DoD's first enterprise-wide mobile application store and mobile-device management system, officials at the Defense Information Systems Agency said Friday.
The contract is a significant milestone in the Pentagon's long-anticipated rollout of a new generation of smart devices and the execution of the commercial mobile-device implementation plan DoD rolled out earlier this year.

The plan called for the deployment of technology that could secure and manage mobile devices in a centralized fashion across the military services and agencies as a prerequisite to the widespread deployment of handhelds such as Apple's iOS devices and Google's Android.

"A strong MDM capability lets us provision and manage devices with best-practice protections, trusted platform configuration and continuous monitoring," Douglas Gardner, the technical director in DISA's program executive office for mission assurance, said in a statement.

Under the award, Digital Management, Inc. could receive up to $16 million over three years if the government exercises all of its options under the contract, beginning with a $2.9 million first-year base period.

A spokeswoman said the company was precluded under the contract from publicly discussing its plans to implement the MDM and app store, but the initial request for proposals DISA issued last October required that the mobility management scheme support at least Android and iOS devices, with BlackBerry and Windows Phone support as optional features. The RFP characterized DoD's first MDM incarnation as a "short-term" solution, supporting at least 162,500 devices and up to 100,000 more by the end of the contract.

The MDM will serve as a "traffic cop," provisioning, managing and, if necessary, wiping clean any of the mobile devices connected to DoD's new mobile infrastructure. The app store also provided for in the contract will be a secure, internal storefront designed to serve the entire military and make sure that only approved apps can be installed on approved devices.

Last month, DISA cleared the way for revamping of DoD's arduous security review process for IT hardware, and the department eventually hopes to clear most devices within 30 days of their introduction to the commercial marketplace.

Can this day get any worse?

[take99]

Man I need a beer. Badly. 15 mins to go here.

[cjcampbell]

Man I need a beer. Badly. 15 mins to go here.

I just opened number 3 and a fresh case just arrived. Maybe I should get another to be safe.

[cjcampbell]

It's not a very big contract though.... money wise. Really cheap!! I have to wonder if this is all encompassing.

[cjcampbell]

LC..... Get on the phone and find out what the deal is...... PLEASE

[dusdal]

162k devices x $99/per license = 16 mln.

Probably would have been roughly the same for the minimum # of devices for BES 10.

based strictly on license costs that is..

[cjcampbell]

162k devices x $99/per license = 16 mln.

Probably would have been roughly the same for the minimum # of devices for BES 10.

that number of 16 million is "up to" and is over a 3 year period. Now I know there'd be a volume discount but 66% off is pretty steep. And for the initial contract rate, it's only 2.9 million to cover those 162,500 devices. That's like buying home made wine. That's only $17/year per device.... something doesn't add up here.

[BThunderW]

This is what it feels like about now.

JubJoo.com - $BBRY Shareholder

[Aham1984]

It's a short term solution?

Posted via CB10

[take99]

This is what it feels like about now.

JubJoo.com - $BBRY Shareholder

Hard to laugh today but that did it!

[take99]

Its ok mm im already in the fetal position oh look luckyjp how you doing?