[Reed Richards]

Ok, so THAT didn't go as expected. Guess the plus side is that if my shares ever turn a decent profit, I'll almost definitely have held long enough for the much lower U.S. long-term capital gains tax...

Ok, sounds like the turnaround isn't so much a turnaround, as it is a transformation. Like Misek has been forecasting, the true future of BlackBerry might be in leveraging its security and MDM capabilities, rather than increasing its marketshare of handsets. That will take getting used to... not that I'm giving up hope on BB10 - I think there's still hope for a slower paced adoption of the Z10 and Q10 as people begin to see them, but the numbers were disappointing.

The combination of cash and no debt should mean the company can pursue this path for quite some time. My question is, does this earnings miss and the uncertain future really warrant the share price being down some 28%? I'm a fairly new investor, but I suspect this is probably largely panic selling, or stops being triggered, or the simple cutting of losses. I just can't see this level of a miss killing 25% of a company's value. Or am I just telling myself that to feel better?

[Charles Martin1]

I wonder if Misek will revise his price target down.

I think he has to.

[BBInPlay]

I

Posted via CB10

[m1a1mg]

Why do people keep saying 2.7M sales. It was shipped right? With no sell through numbers?

[lcjr]

I am concerned that there hasn't been a rebound yet. I think many may be waiting to see if there is another shoe to fall.

I think we should expect to see a lot more volatility to come back into the stock.

Charles, it will be tempting to go back to selling on the peaks and buying on the dips. I'll have to think about that real hard though.

[fedakd]

Well, wasn't that an interesting morning...

Think we broke down out of the symmetrical triangle this morning? (sorry, I just had to :P)

What a disparity in data we had...never seen anything like this before.

[Superfly_FR]

So, is the $100 party cancelled?

[jon_stark_28]

The down grades will come and it won't be pretty .. I am lost

[JGuez55]

Don't get me wrong, I wish they would have sold more BB10 devices this quarter but then again our expectations we're higher because every analyst predicted they would beat earnings. It's disappointing that they didn't blow out the quarter like a lot were expecting.

That said I haven't been building a portfolio of this stock for over a year to profit on it from some random quarter. I expected and plan to hold this for another year or 2. That's been my plan from the start and would not have changed had it gone to $18 today.

I believe in the long term vision of this company and I think we're headed in the right direction. We increased sales by 10% to 3.1 billion in sales. We lost $518 million this quarter last year and lost $84 million this quarter this year. That's a pretty drastic difference.

Also, there's the fact that the consensus was to make 6 cents a share and we lost 16 cents a share. Sure, making a tiny profit would have been nice but at the end of the day it's still in the breaking even stages. Making 6 cents a share and losing 16 cents a share are practically the same thing in the grand scheme of things.

I hope none of you were investing money you couldn't afford to lose. Never a good idea.

[Bugmapper]

Looks like my BBRY is dead money until next December. That is too bad. Even a small ROI would have been enough to keep me happy but I don't see how that will happen this year. I'm still 100% confident in Blackberry over the long term but I can't afford to increase my position anymore.

That Venezuela thing worried me when I posted it several days back, but I had no idea how big a deal it was. It could take them months, or even years to work that out, if ever. I hope they make some smart business decisions in that regard. It could go 2 ways - write it off as a loss and sue the carriers, or work with the carriers and make them part of the solution to get at least the majority of the money back and salvage the entire market over the long term.

I think the whole thing really boils down to BES10 adoption. That is the one thing that is holding Blackberry back. Without BES10 being implemented the profits just aren't there - both in fees and in handset sales. Consumer sales will keep them afloat and BBM cross platform will be icing on the cake, but BES10 adoption will take 1 - 2 years. We are not seeing any government agencies in Canada, US, or Europe buying large numbers of Blackberry handsets yet. Huge government and corporate sales will come, but not in time for next quarter. The A10 and the new BB7 handset will continue to keep consumers engaged but BES10 is everything.

Blackberry is on the right track, but it is a really long track. That puts the whole idea of BBRY as an investment into question. Why would anybody sink money into BBRY now just to watch their money sit there for 8 - 12 months.

Oh well. Thanks to all of you for your wisdom and humour. To those of you who have free cash available - congratulations - easy money to be made today I think as $10 is still a silly price for BBRY. To the rest of you who cannot take advantage of it because you are too far underwater and have no cash available - you are not alone.

Cheers. And still long...

[morganplus8]

Hey Morgan...

In reference to BB10 devices sold, what do you think about the fact that Q1 is traditionally a slow sales time for new phones?

I do think that had some effect on sales. We do know that iPhone and Samsung aren't selling well either and everyone that has a smartphone is likely in no hurry to replace them in the short-term. Heins is right that this will take some time to get consumers to take up the BB-10 when their contracts come due. The big surprise is the high amount of BB-07 phones sold, that caught me off guard. I was thinking that a drop from 5MM to 2.5 MM was a bit harsh but they only dropped to 4.1 MM showing us that outside NA, there is still good demand from other countries. When you factor in Venezuela, the BB-07 phones are really strong here. So everything rests with the BB-10 and their marketing to my way of thinking. They fired their PR team and you don't have to think to long to figure out why that happened after today. Its not a case of failing to spend on advertising, they did that, the fact is, it wasn't a good program in light of the challenges. I can see Prem buying more shares as he would be privy to all of this nonsense and knows this is still on track for 3 more years from now.

[spiller]

Some sex would be good right about now.

Good call.
At 1 pm I've have some 'condolences' coming by
It's never ALL bad.

[Superfly_FR]

Ok, so THAT didn't go as expected. Guess the plus side is that if my shares ever turn a decent profit, I'll almost definitely have held long enough for the much lower U.S. long-term capital gains tax...

Ok, sounds like the turnaround isn't so much a turnaround, as it is a transformation. Like Misek has been forecasting, the true future of BlackBerry might be in leveraging its security and MDM capabilities, rather than increasing its marketshare of handsets. That will take getting used to... not that I'm giving up hope on BB10 - I think there's still hope for a slower paced adoption of the Z10 and Q10 as people begin to see them, but the numbers were disappointing.

The combination of cash and no debt should mean the company can pursue this path for quite some time. My question is, does this earnings miss and the uncertain future really warrant the share price being down some 28%? I'm a fairly new investor, but I suspect this is probably largely panic selling, or stops being triggered, or the simple cutting of losses. I just can't see this level of a miss killing 25% of a company's value. Or am I just telling myself that to feel better?

Hi Reed Richards and welcome here. The place is warm today
I share your analysis, there's a cascading reaction here. We have to step back and wait a little to evaluate the damages.
Fundamentals are still solid.
So far, stock value doesn't impact the company itself, but the media buzz is bad for the image, especially in enterprises that may hold their mid-long term investments due to "bankruptcy-like" papers that will pop again in the next weeks. That's tough work to clean this mess again.

Am I confident ? Well ... just let me edit my signature, some changes to occur in a short while

[Robert Halloran]

The only thing I was right about was the SNAP. Except it wasn't a short snap, it was my finger. My position is larger than most so I'm feeling the pain. Glad I learned long ago to stay away from margin. Hope you guys are alright. We all need to take a sober second look at the situation. Je besoin une grande biere froid S T.

[BlackistheBerry]

Ralllyyyyyyyy !!!

[morganplus8]

What about downgrades? They must be sure to come.

You can't downgrade something more than it is already when the average target is $ 13.00s/hr. We know Misek is coming down as we'll see with some others, but they will drop to the mid teens as Misek believes in software without a hardware element for the future. I still think that many don't care about BlackBerry any more and the rest knew this is going to take time. Today we had the short-term traders get out of a bad call. I see us back above $ 11.00/shr with the odd trip to $ 12.00 but nothing more. The average target will be around $ 12.00/shr when the dust clears.

[Superfly_FR]

Yup, for the better and the worse. Here we are guys. Again.
We're not dancing, but I hope I'll grab some cheap ones ... even forced a bit to 150 at $CAN 11.5 instead of 100 I tried at CAN$ 14 last weeks.
May turn out to be a good for a bad

Groovay babe ! I'm now holding 550 shares and averaged down approx USD 13.28.

[Charles Martin1]

Ok, I've had a chance to review the material again. These are my conclusions:

The broader phone business is DONE.
The tablet business has been CUT LOOSE.
Software seems to have a chance but it won't last if there isn't any broader uptake.
FINALLY, I believe that the company may become a candidate for takeover.

At this stage, we are bobbing like a cork and given the stock will no doubt take further hits (downgrades for sure) it is my opinion to cut losses and move on.

I've made a lot of money on this stock (much more than this kick today) but it's no longer any good if I can't trust the management team and they have dealt us a heavy blow. Very deceiving.

It's been fun guys. Not even keeping it on the watch list this time. All the best.

[plasmid_boy]

Didn't we just get screwed ?

Yeah, but most of us here want to do it turned around. LOL
Anyways, I am holding on. My original plan was at least 3 years anyways...

[z10fido]

Sorry but I had too say it. No I won't. I'm the bigger person. Sorry guys.

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[Charles Martin1]

The down grades will come and it won't be pretty .. I am lost

I'm done. I think we have a lot more downside yet. Not the Titanic but $8 may be in store next week.

[gohan_bcc]

I'd like a new CEO plain and simple. Someone who tackles all the problems the company is facing and is transparent. In this day and age a 30% quarter earnings drop triggers an investigation. None will happen as I'm sure there isn't anything fishy going on at BBRY but this CEO just says everything so vague as a way to shelter issues. Not cool.

[Gesig Boek]

The reason why most in this thread were surprised by the numbers is because you ignored data which did not agree with your wishes.

There were explicit data from Kantar every month which showed market share was poor, which was completely ignored, and reasons were invented why the numbers were inaccurate.

In addition everyone knew Blackberry 10 handsets were very expense, and would therefore not perform well. Yet people still held fantasies of 5-7 million sold. There is an obvious correlation between price and sales, which is why BB7 handsets outsold BB10 handsets nearly 2:1.

People allowed themselves to be misled by window dressing like the sales of thousands of BB10 handsets is a London department store, when they had actual Kantar numbers which shows BB had a 0.7% share in US and 5.6% share in UK.

It was also extremely obvious that Statcounter data was being manipulated up by who knows who, which should have rang alarm bells, but for some reason people just ignored it. The whole point of such a move would be to fool the longs, not the shorts.

Willfully ignoring independent sources of data is the reason many are now in the red.

[Jemala]

BlackBerry should give up! Each quarter it's the same old story, I do not trust them anymore. The reality is that BlackBerry phones do not sell and they are locked in a vicious srpirale (no sales, no application, no promotion from carriers). I should have waited before buying my Z10 in march!

[Charles Martin1]

Why do people keep saying 2.7M sales. It was shipped right? With no sell through numbers?

The lesson for me is if Thor isn't saying, it is BAD.