[tygros]

The scenarios I see are:
* .75/share and more equals short squeeze into 20+.
* .50 to. 74, a good day and eventual new 52 week high within a month.
* .25 to. 49. Could be neutral for tomorrow but shares will continue slow uptrend.
* .10 to. 24. The devil will be in the detail. The next 3 months could be like the last 3 months. Back to the starting line.
* under .10 is not good, the bears will have their day.
I expect the 2nd or 3rd scenario, but wouldn't be surprised with the first.

Your expectations are WAY too high unless you add in a Tax incentive to boot. No One is pegging the consensus among qualified analysts at above $0.06 right now - with only a few getting above that #. Anyone who says $0.10 is a disappointment is a bear in bull clothing - be wary. We said B/E - A $.10 beat on that with cash build-up and unit beat is a win - across the board.

Please don't go in EXPECTING > $0.10 or bust...

[spiller]

Wow that really sucks. Feel for you.

Thanks man. Appreciate the kind words. Really. Let's see what happens tomorrow. I hope it launches like a rocket .....and I don't need to haul them to court to make amends :P

[spiller]

That sucks dude. You need a new broker.

Thanks man. And like I was saying to Morgan...you never know what can happen....well the system wasn't down but this happened!

Unreal.

Good luck to all of us! I'm still all in, with stock bought in the AM.

But I fully expect a 20%+ gain tomorrow and that's a lot of lost gains from the non 'opening' of that order!

[take99]

Finally watched the interview with Gus from Scotia on CNBC. I like this guy! Straight forward and loved it at the end when the apple analyst cut in on him, he was clearly pissed off as he wanted to discuss the margins they are expecting. All in all a good interview.

[take99]

Man I have to get up at 4 to see the report tomorrow!

[Kid Vibe]

Just to keep everyone in tact... I don't see this stock going over $17 tomorrow. Yup, long term investment BB is... Give it one year atleast




I hope I am wrong and this shoots to $20+ tomorrow though.

[spiller]

Was it on a margin account. Unless it was a huge trade I don't see why it couldn't be filled. Did it get executed and not filled or never executed? Options are strange, but there is usually enough volume and $$ for them to sail thru quickly. Having someone authorized for not more than 50 contracts at a time on a cash account would be very lame in my book.. If it is a margin account or huge numbers then maybe, but still lame.. Sorry, that sucks. Maybe they saved you a lot of money though. :-)

So my order was confirmed - put in the queue - but then it was routed to a specialist who has to 'open' the trade. So it never got opened. This is the story I got after talking with the manager. It was a big trade if you are considering my size and risk, but I just offloaded even more risk (july calls) for less risk (oct calls) same $. A lot of $s though.

Not a margin account. RRSP account.

[gohan_bcc]

BBRY going to be $2 tomorrow
.....IN THE GREEN pew pew

[spiller]

Only caveat being that maybe only 1 million is expected to be sold in Q1, 3 million in Q2 and Q3 and 9 million in Q4. Thor would still be correct under this scenario.

he said several tens of millions. that is 30M+

[ItsTheBox]

he said several tens of millions. that is 30M+

I don't think he gave a time frame though

Sent from my SPH-L900 using CB Forums mobile app

[spiller]

My worthless prediction:

They will beat the street on earnings, sales but overall subs will drop, just like last time. No squeeze.

Reasoning: Q10 which is their bread and butter hasn't been launched worldwide yet during last qtr.

Not worthless at all. You called the bear raid and made $ on puts bought today. Good call. I was surprised it closed down from the open. Thought there would be more big money coming in.

[tdovey]

Ok I'll chime in.... Any opinions on announcements tomorrow besides eps or subscribers, maybe a partnership or upcoming devices (DoD/A10 etc.)? I have a good feeling we will here something regarding Sony and/or Cisco.

TD

Posted via CB10

[rampagingpanda]

If anyone is interested, there's a BBM group chat for discussing Q1 release tmr.

I've attached the QR code above!

Posted via CB10

[junelises]

Your expectations are WAY too high unless you add in a Tax incentive to boot. No One is pegging the consensus among qualified analysts at above $0.06 right now - with only a few getting above that #. Anyone who says $0.10 is a disappointment is a bear in bull clothing - be wary. We said B/E - A $.10 beat on that with cash build-up and unit beat is a win - across the board.

Please don't go in EXPECTING > $0.10 or bust...

Ah hello, recent history suggest a slight beat means bears get their day. There are a few bull analyst who expect .50+. And even some bear analysts warning there might be some upside surprise. Hey last quarter was .19/share on a million bb10. I'd say that's the true # to beat. Also, in December I bought a couple thousand shares after the earnings beat brought the stock from 14 to 10.50. This time around I'm maxed out and won't be able to buy shares if there is a dip on a slight earnings beat,,.. So hopefully it's a convincingly good quarter,..If it makes you feel better, yes my expectation includes tax incentives.

[angrybear123]

Would be nice to have over 3b in cash after er

Sent from my SPH-L900 using CB Forums mobile app

Welllll... not necessarily.

Higher cash can mean a lot of great things obviously, but a surge in cash as the BB10 platform is just getting off the ground probably isn't good. PERSONALLY, I (and I believe most of the street) would interpret this as meaning BlackBerry is scaling back production of BB10 devices, because they don't believe they will sell as well in the future.

Strong guidance plus a drop in cash, and this thing will surge. No guidance, and an increase in cash, and the bears can make a very easy case about why there is no guidance being given. Just like last quarter where this happened...

[angrybear123]

does anyone know if public can listen in on the call like last time? if so whats the conference call number?

You can google to find the concall number, or use the webcast
Investor Events - Canada

[angrybear123]

Question for you guys. If I can pick up 500 shares tomorrow (TSX) where it closed at 15.05 should I put a buy order tonight for .06 or do you think it may drop into the 14.90 then bounce back or should I try and watch rate throughout the day and try and get a dip?

No way of answering that question until after the ER, in which case, I would bet the stock will either by much higher or lower than previous close.

[angrybear123]

My turn for worthless predictions a mere 5 hours before (I should really sleep...)

- Cash + STI drop to 2.4b
- BB7: 2.5mm
- BB10: 4.5mm
- GM: Slight increase to 42%
- Operating EPS pre-tax adjustments $0.78
- No Guidance, but upbeat comments about sales in concall

Expect conference call to be first about whether Q10 results are included in there from various countries (mainly US), then about how the Q10 is selling, then non-stop questions over and over about sell-in versus sell-through (which won't be answered).

The unanswered sell-in versus sell-through questions will make the uber Bears (eg. NBF, UBS, DB, etc) remain in the bear camp, but perhaps some upgrades to neutral. The Bulls will do a few victory laps on the EPS and BB10 sales. Stock should pop.

[fairfaxnut]

I think I want to look foolish and publish my stats for tomorrow's Q1 report:

So here goes!

- Cash last quarter was $ 2.946 billion, I see that going up by $ 200 million
- Core Program ends in Q1 with a total of $ 1.5 billion in savings helping to push cash higher
- Subs are down by 1.5 million unless Thor comes out with the new formula for calculating BlackBerry customers in which case, we are higher by 1 million
- BB 10 phones - 5.5 million
- BB-07 phones - 3.5 million
- Revenues at $ 4.3 billion
- EPS including additional tax incentives at .60/shr
- Sell Through of phones at 8.0 units
- Inventory build of $ 300 million

Highlights will include more talk about partnerships
More product launches and BB 10.2

Finally the stock has huge support at $ 13.50/shr and a breakout at $ 16.25/shr - I say we end strong on the upside if Heins changes the way BB reports subs tomorrow.

That's it! Good night and good luck everyone!!

Morgan, I belive they changed the way they calculate subs to include bb10 users(excludes playbook) last quarter. I belive bbry had this in the Q3 proxy but I'm unsure. Thor stated this in the q4 conf Call

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[nquyen]

Can someone explain Stop-limits and buy-limits to me?

[Superfly_FR]

Guys, I'm leaving for a serious poker time. Hopefully, I'll be back loaded with $$ and able to add on any - very improbable - dip tomorrow.
Stay cool, our time will come, sooner than later !
Cheers
A.

Oh, I forgot : so you think Z10 is not selling well ? This might soften your fears ... and have an idea of EU perception !

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...onents-822360/

LOL, not that bad, finished with an extra �120 ... but not enough to invest ... or maybe I'll put some more ...
We'll see !
Have a nice day CrackBerrians ! And remember, this is only a passing point !!!

Long and keep moving !

[Superfly_FR]

Can someone explain Stop-limits and buy-limits to me?

In simple terms : these are "automatic" orders with long (or no) expiration dates you set on your account.
stop limit is the price you set to identify the moment where you must sell your shares to avoid a big loss in case of crash.
buy limit is the price you set to fire a buy order when you believe the price is worthy.

Usually, you set stop when you trade or want to avoid a cataclysmic loss. In the second scenario I believe a $10-11 stop (35 to 50% loss) could be somehow reasonable. For buy ... well ...

To sum up, I'd say in our most current case here (long), only the stop should be set, if ever you're affraid you might loose more than x% of your investment, whatever your time target is.

Hope it's clear ... I need a coffee right now ... we made a "tour de France" of wine yesterday ... happily they were good bottles ... but I need some coffee ... coffeeeeeeeee !

[Acumenight]

That's on my wish list too; goodish ER numbers are already expected - given the hype, I doubt the ER numbers regardless how amazing will blow the pundit's socks off. What could blow their socks off is if there were unexpected partnerships/licenses announced. A SONY & Lenova licensing deal WILL cause a nutty spike. Short on that, I can't see the SP soaring to new heights.

Ok I'll chime in.... Any opinions on announcements tomorrow besides eps or subscribers, maybe a partnership or upcoming devices (DoD/A10 etc.)? I have a good feeling we will here something regarding Sony and/or Cisco.

TD

Posted via CB10

[BlackistheBerry]

Let's get it started.....

[greggebhardt]

Well, the day is upon us at last. I hope the ER is all that everyone expected.

Good luck everyone.