[morganplus8]

I'm probably splitting hairs on the details here, but won't the Bollinger Bands be closer to $15.10 if we open near there? Yesterday they settled to around $14.90 (up $0.15 from Tuesday on our jump); I get the impression with the current momentum it wouldn't be too out of the ordinary to see those bands expand slightly more rapidly today given a good open.

Regardless - this has been a fantastic week. I certainly wasn't expecting us to be going into the earnings with this kind of strength.

Hi Robinson7D!!

You can predict the BB's anytime you like, simply count back 22 days from the last close and take the difference between the next day and today's opening trade.



As you can see by this chart we closed right at the upper band. The two arrows to the left represent the day that we needed the closing trade for, to calculate yesterdays BB high. Today, we need the next day, $ 14.19/shr and subtract this from your guess of an opening of $ 15.10/shr today = $ . 91/shr divided by 22 days for the average or, $ .04/shr. We can expect the BB's to gain $ .04/shr today if the stock opens at $ 15.10/shr, so the outer range of the stock should only be $ 14.93/shr or a slight move up from here. The bands are subject to 22 days of averages here so it takes time for them to really get going. Now if the news is strong tomorrow, forget the bands, as the bands are only accurate to 95% of the trade, they error 5% of the time and that error is how you get a stock to go up by 40% in one day which is likely to happen tomorrow! LOL

Fun with numbers. I might add that the BB's are the only thing holding us back from a $ 16.25 print soon. We just need to make a higher high in order to start to dream of much higher levels these days. I would be happy if we held our previous gains today and thrilled if we can break above $ 15.00/shr at the close.

[cjcampbell]

Still well up and only 5 minutes to open. I gotta say I'm surprised it was taken down in the last half hour. I didn't think they'd allow yet another gap up.

[bigbbrybeliever]

Unless we get planned bear raid today to drive the LOD below 14.70, we will definitely close above 15 (if the general market is green) and will may see HOD as high as 15.50.

[Robinson7D]

@Morgan ah, yes, I wasn't counting the sticks and was maybe more focused on the slightly lower days from ~18 days ago. That said, I think the averaging might be done with 20, rather than 22, because us opening around $15.05 and sitting around $15.02 now allowed us an upper Bollinger of $15.01 as attached.

[BThunderW]

Here's hoping that's it's just profit taking from this week.

[Superfly_FR]

So congrats goes out to my friend Superfly!!! This thread hit an amazing 35,000 messages and 1400 pages of pure investment greatness so my hats off to him!!

Thanks, Morgan !
My congrats goes to everyone here - with a special mention to you Morgan for you're unmatched contributions value and your pedagogic talent !

One our our most famous poet (Pierre Corneille) wrote :

Sous moi donc cette troupe s'avance, Et porte sur le front une m�le assurance. Nous part�mes cinq cents; mais par un prompt renfort Nous nous v�mes trois mille en arrivant au port, Tant, � nous voir marcher avec un tel visage, Les plus �pouvant�s reprenaient de courage ! J'en cache les deux tiers, aussit�t qu'arriv�s, Dans le fond des vaisseaux qui lors furent trouv�s; Le reste, dont le nombre augmentait � toute heure, Br�lant d'impatience, autour de moi demeure, Se couche contre terre, et sans faire aucun bruit Passe une bonne part d'une si belle nuit. Par mon commandement la garde en fait de m�me, Et se tenant cach�e, aide � mon stratag�me; Et je feins hardiment d'avoir re�u de vous L'ordre qu'on me voit suivre et que je donne � tous. Cette obscure clart� qui tombe des �toiles Enfin avec le flux nous fait voir trente voiles; L'onde s'enfle dessous, et d'un commun effort Les Maures et la mer montent jusques au port. On les laisse passer ; tout leur para�t tranquille; Point de soldats au port, point aux murs de la ville. Notre profond silence abusant leurs esprits, Ils n'osent plus douter de nous avoir surpris; Ils abordent sans peur, ils ancrent, ils descendent, Et courent se livrer aux mains qui les attendent. Nous nous levons alors, et tous en m�me temps Poussons jusques au ciel mille cris �clatants. Les n�tres, � ces cris, de nos vaisseaux r�pondent; Ils paraissent arm�s, les Maures se confondent, L'�pouvante les prend � demi descendus; Avant que de combattre ils s'estiment perdus. Ils couraient au pillage, et rencontrent la guerre; Nous les pressons sur l'eau, nous les pressons sur terre, Et nous faisons courir des ruisseaux de leur sang, Avant qu'aucun r�siste ou reprenne son rang. Mais bient�t, malgr� nous, leurs princes les rallient, Leur courage rena�t, et leurs terreurs s'oublient La honte de mourir sans avoir combattu Arr�te leur d�sordre, et leur rend leur vertu. Contre nous de pied ferme ils tirent leurs alfanges; De notre sang au leur font d'horribles m�langes. Et la terre, et le fleuve, et leur flotte, et le port, Sont des champs de carnage o� triomphe la mort. � combien d'actions, combien d'exploits c�l�bres Sont demeur�s sans gloire au milieu des t�n�bres, O� chacun, seul t�moin des grands coups qu'il donnait, Ne pouvait discerner o� le sort inclinait ! J'allais de tous c�t�s encourager les n�tres, Faire avancer les uns et soutenir les autres, Ranger ceux qui venaient, les pousser � leur tour, Et ne l'ai pu savoir jusques au point du jour. Mais enfin sa clart� montre notre avantage; Le Maure voit sa perte, et perd soudain courage Et voyant un renfort qui nous vient secourir, L'ardeur de vaincre c�de � la peur de mourir. Ils gagnent leurs vaisseaux, ils en coupent les c�bles, Poussent jusques aux cieux des cris �pouvantables, Font retraite en tumulte, et sans consid�rer Si leurs rois avec eux peuvent se retirer. Pour souffrir ce devoir leur frayeur est trop forte; Le flux les apporta, le reflux les remporte; Cependant que leurs rois, engag�s parmi nous, Et quelque peu des leurs, tous perc�s de nos coups, Disputent vaillamment et vendent bien leur vie. � se rendre moi-m�me en vain je les convie : Le cimeterre au poing ils ne m'�coutent pas; Mais voyant � leurs pieds tomber tous leurs soldats, Et que seuls d�sormais en vain ils se d�fendent, Ils demandent le chef; je me nomme, ils se rendent. Je vous les envoyai tous deux en m�me temps; Et le combat cessa faute de combattants. Le Cid, acte 4, sc�ne 3

Under me the troop advanced, Displaying all its manly confidence. We were five hundred, but with swift support Grew to three thousand as we reached the port, So that seeing us marching to that stage, Those most terrified found new courage! Arriving, I hid quite two thirds of the men In the holds of the vessels there, and then The rest, whose numbers now increased hourly, Devoured by impatience, gathering round me, Lay down on the ground, where in silence The best part of a fine night was spent. At my command the guards did the same, And, staying hidden, helped my stratagem; Then I boldly feigned to owe to you The orders they and I would then pursue. The faint light cast from every distant star Showed thirty ships now crossing the bar; The waves swelled beneath, and their effort Brought the tide-borne Moors within the port. We let them pass; all appearing tranquil; No soldiers at the port, the city still. The calm we maintained deceived their eyes. They, believing they’d achieved surprise, Fearless, closed, anchored, disembarked, And then they ran against us in the dark. We leapt up on the instant, copious cries Uttered by our troops, rose to the skies. Others echoed from our anchored fleet; Thus the Moors’ amazement proved complete, Terror seized them just as they were landing. They knew defeat, prior to any fighting. They thought to pillage, but met with slaughter. We pressed them on land, and on the water, And high their blood lifted like a fountain, Before they could resist, re-group, again. But soon, in spite of us, their princes rallied, Their courage was revived, their terror fled: The shame of dying, without act of war, Quelling confusion renewed their valour. They drew their scimitars against us swiftly; Mingling our blood with theirs most horribly. The river, fleet, the port, the shore, the main, Were sites of conflict now, where death did reign. O countless the brave acts, courageousness Concealed itself from knowledge in the darkness, Where each, the sole true witness of his blows, Could not discern whose side fortune chose! I rushed everywhere, encouraging our men, Making these advance, supporting them. Deploying new-comers, urging them on, Nor could I judge the outcome till the dawn. But, at last, light showed us our advantage; The Moors faced defeat, and so lost courage: And seeing our reinforcements on the way, Fear of death destroyed their hopes with day. The re-gained their ships, they cut the cables, Their dreadful cries rose high above the gables, They retreated then, without considering The action their kings were undertaking. Their terror was too great to think of duty; The tide that brought them on now helped them flee; Yet their kings were still engaged in battle, Handfuls of their men, pierced by our metal, Disputed valiantly, sold their lives dearly. In vain I begged them to surrender to me: Scimitars in hand they would not listen; But seeing their men fall all around them, And that they were fighting on unshielded, They sought our chief: answering, they yielded, I sent them to you, with due compliments; The war then ceased through lack of combatants. Le Cid Act IV, Scene III

Sounds familiar ?
This was a lyrical instant, sponsored by BlackBerry.
Hurray !

P.S: I suggest we mark this (found in Nasdaq's pre-market analisys page) as our expectation-o-meter for tomorow

Research In Motion Limited ( BBRY ) is +0.19 at $15.10, with 183,920 shares traded. Over the last four weeks they have had 3 up revisions for the earnings forecast, for the fiscal quarter ending Nov 2013. The consensus EPS forecast is $0.1. BBRY is scheduled to provide an earnings report on 6/28/2013, for the fiscal quarter ending May2013. The consensus earnings per share forecast is 0.04 per share, which represents a -37 percent increase over the EPS one Year Ago

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/premar...#ixzz2XQEmKHNq

[morganplus8]

@Morgan ah, yes, I wasn't counting the sticks and was maybe more focused on the slightly lower days from ~18 days ago. That said, I think the averaging might be done with 20, rather than 22, because us opening around $15.05 and sitting around $15.02 now allowed us an upper Bollinger of $15.01 as attached.

We are somewhere in the middle on the chart there, I saw that higher print too and will investigate it. I still like my target of $ 15.00 for today, certainly looks doable doesn't it? I see just now that the $ 15.04 produces a $ 15.02 level. Let's revisit this later at different price points and figure out what is happening to the numbers! I did round off my numbers a bit and maybe that is why there is a gap here? Rounding off 22 numbers is quite the potential error.

Either way, we want those bands to expand which they are and a plus $ 15.00 is doable. Thanks for picking up on this.

[BThunderW]

I bought some puts this morning in case they try to drive this thing down into the close. It's for day trade only, will sell them before close and max out on calls/common.

Edit: I'm only doing this because we went up on relatively low volume and it would be easy for them to knock this down.

[morganplus8]

@Morgan ah, yes, I wasn't counting the sticks and was maybe more focused on the slightly lower days from ~18 days ago. That said, I think the averaging might be done with 20, rather than 22, because us opening around $15.05 and sitting around $15.02 now allowed us an upper Bollinger of $15.01 as attached.

Okay, I just noticed that we are using different BB perimeters here! I'm using the 22 day version and you are using the 20-day marker which will produce a different outcome. At the end of the day we'll see what the data looks like .

[lcjr]

Good morning gang!! Well, we certainly have a gap growing between predictions on the SP come EOD tomorrow! This makes things really exciting. Got my great German coffee and ready to see what today has in store. I wish everybody a productive day and be sure to keep up with us as you can.

[rebekahlynnharrison]

Hi Rebekah,
I understand. Fiancially, you can decide to rely on credit instead of your available cash; in some cases it's worthy (for instance, in France, current credit rates for real estate (~3%) are close to the (avg projected) inflation rate (~2%), resulting in a borrow net cost around 1%). Yet, it is only a financial approach and means that you actually hold the same available cash and decide to place it in a 100% safe investment (returning over 1% net). But I didn't read this kind of strategy in the post that fired this discussion topic. Therefore the red lights I'm lightning.

You may decide to borrow for an important investment (house, car, ...) but as a base for investing in stocks (moreover on a single one) ... this just sounds a very bad idea to me.

I tend to agree in principle, but everyone has a different set of circumstances, risk tolerance etc. Many examples here in Ontario of people who used their LOC (attached to their home) to finance investments. Making enough of a return thru mutual funds to get a couple of percentages at low-ish risk. GASP...but we are semi-conservative, our LOC is not tied to the house and have enough cash reserves to cover any debt we have. We choose to keep a loan on the house because it's a ridiculously low rate and using our other cash reserves for investing (hopefully for more of a return than we are paying out on our home loan) It's all about debits/credits for us here personally. I tend to eat-breath-and-sleep finance/investing. Just be fully aware is a good motto.

[ibpluto]

OK, on a side note

I just noticed my user name as one of the top thanked!! LOL

M+8 is numero uno as he should be .....but I had to chuckle when I saw my name there

[Robinson7D]

We are somewhere in the middle on the chart there, I saw that higher print too and will investigate it. I still like my target of $ 15.00 for today, certainly looks doable doesn't it? I see just now that the $ 15.04 produces a $ 15.02 level. Let's revisit this later at different price points and figure out what is happening to the numbers! I did round off my numbers a bit and maybe that is why there is a gap here? Rounding off 22 numbers is quite the potential error.

Either way, we want those bands to expand which they are and a plus $ 15.00 is doable. Thanks for picking up on this.

Yeah, for sure, $15-15.05's what I was hoping for today as of noon yesterday. I'm perfectly happy with anything above $14.70 ish, though.

[Tinomane]

So Gus Papagorgio has the most bullish estimate and he is only predicting 3.5 mill units?

[imz]

The guys on StockTwats are pretty upbeat this morning. Not sure if this has been posted...more support for the possible blow-out earnings. More mention of Sony possibilities...

A BlackBerry bull who's way above consensus - Yahoo! Finance Canada

Nice, would be great if Heins drops a sweet'ol confirmation on the whole Blackberry & Sony speculation:

The former Sony-Ericsson CEO is on the BlackBerry board. This ex-CEO is also a big backer of another company working closely on the "Internet of Things." A few months ago, BlackBerry decided to pull out of Japan entirely, perhaps setting the stage to return with Sony as a partner. Finally, Sony has already indicated that it would support three mobile OSs: Android, Microsoft and another. BlackBerry is the next most popular.

The above would help propel the whole BB10 Mobile Computing with a hardware house such as Sony with its:

Consoles
Phones
Tv's
Laptops
Desktops
engaging with Blackberry10

&
feeding multimedia content into Blackberry World via
* Sony music (songs)
* Sony entertainment (tv & film)

etc etc

[Superfly_FR]

Still well up and only 5 minutes to open. I gotta say I'm surprised it was taken down in the last half hour. I didn't think they'd allow yet another gap up.

[ibpluto]

Nice, would be great if Heins drops a sweet'ol confirmation on the whole Blackberry & Sony speculation:



The above would help propel the whole BB10 Mobile Computing with a hardware house such as Sony with its:

Consoles
Phones
Tv's
Laptops
Desktops
engaging with Blackberry10

&
feeding multimedia content into Blackberry World via
* Sony music (songs)
* Sony entertainment (tv & film)

etc etc

This kind of annoucement would bounce the shorts so freaking fast....we would have V-Dub all over again I think. (It was a suprise announcement of that squeezed that one into the history books)

[Superfly_FR]

This kind of annoucement would bounce the shorts so freaking fast....we would have V-Dub all over again I think. (It was a suprise announcement of that squeezed that one into the history books)

Sony just announced the PS4 ... after 7 years of development ... I'm doubting. But I can be wrong.

[AngryEdmontonian]

So Gus Papagorgio has the most bullish estimate and he is only predicting 3.5 mill units?

Yes, but his EPS estimate is ~$0.72 based on gross margins of 40-45% and minimum sub loss. Consensus is $0.07/shr gross margins of 38.5% and a sub loss of a few million. Gus' estimate for ASP is high too at $550 while consensus is $485. So when the numbers are compared, he really is quite bullish. Look at the annual EPS consensus is $0.45, and he has Q1 at $0.72.

[Superfly_FR]

It sure would be nice if BBRY would pull a TSLA, wouldn't it!

Foliebergere ... welcome around buddy !
Let's turn this to a Crazy Horse !!!!

[Charles Martin1]

What worries me is if they (the shorts) can control the price like they are right now, can they hold it back even on a great ER?

[rebekahlynnharrison]

down and dirty those shorty's this morning. Like fighting for their last breath under water.

[Superfly_FR]

(sry, may have been posted before)

We expect Research in Motion Limited ( BBRY ), the Canadian handset manufacturer, to surpass expectations when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2014 results before the opening bell on Jun 28, 2013.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that BBRY is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.
Positive Zacks ESP : Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method ), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, stands at +100.00%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise.

Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) : BBRY currently has a Zacks Rank #3. Note that the stocks with a Zacks Ranks of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) and #3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings.
The combination of BBRY's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and +100.00% ESP makes us confident of a positive earnings beat on Jun 28, 2013.

What is Driving the Better-Than-Expected Earnings?
BBRY is poised for a better performance as the company's newly-launched BB10 operating system-based smartphone Z10 is receiving good response in the global market. BBRY has made significant development in its latest platform by enriching it with popular applications and is also actively promoting its latest operating platform. However, we remain skeptical about the success of BB7 as low-end customers continue to prefer low budget Android phones over BlackBerry's legacy handsets.

The average selling price (ASP) of the handsets is expected to rise based on the high price of BB10 units, which in turn could improve margins. However, sustainability of the current momentum and the rise in material costs on account of the use of expensive parts, remain the near-term headwinds for the company.

Read more: BlackBerry Likely to Top Earnings - Analyst Blog

Did you note, beside the positiveness that there's no mention of Q10 nor Q5 ?
Oh my ...

[ibpluto]

down and dirty those shorty's this morning. Like fighting for their last breath under water.

they are pretty scrappy for their last breath .... dropping it hard. we're red

[Shanerredflag]

Meh...have a coffee, read the paper...just some profit taking imo.