[doctor gonzo]

Go get em Tiger!

[BBNation]

I am afraid of one thing -

What if shorts/bears manage to stage a sell-off again (despite a fantastic ER). Wouldn't that demoralize LOT of retail investors? They'd think that this stock has no upside. Even after beating the Street, this stock doesn't move up. So, that would demoralize investors.

Once investors get demoralized, they'd take their money elsewhere and this stock will then just go down and flatten, won't recover. Correct?

So, if bears manage to stage another sell-off, we might just end up in a bigger hole!


But this time # of shorted shares are higher than previous quarter so they may not be able to damage as much as they did in the past. Also we longs understood their game now compare to year ago when negativity seemed real, now it's seen as manipulation.



Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

[rampagingpanda]

Curious what is everyone's take on predictions...

Less than four million shipped this quarter would be disappointing for me.

Last quarter, we shipped over a million in under 35 countries, in the shortest month of the year + USA was not included in this release.

Having launched in over 100 countries, plus the USA market:
I'm estimating a range of 5-7 million units of BB10 shipped, alongside 3-3.5 million BB7's.

[fairfaxnut]

If anyone wants to buy puts... I'll provide you with the liquidity by selling them.


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[tmb2013]

Curious what is everyone's take on predictions...

Less than four million shipped this quarter would be disappointing for me.

Last quarter, we shipped over a million in under 35 countries, in the shortest month of the year + USA was not included in this release.

Having launched in over 100 countries, plus the USA market:
I'm estimating a range of 5-7 million units of BB10 shipped, alongside 3-3.5 million BB7's.

Number shippedis meaningless. That is the sort of information that Samsung provides.

You want numbers sold. Sold to paying customers.

[matthewriedle]

Number shippedis meaningless. That is the sort of information that Samsung provides.

You want numbers sold. Sold to paying customers.

Carriers are paying customers...

[BBInPlay]

Number shippedis meaningless. That is the sort of information that Samsung provides.

You want numbers sold. Sold to paying customers.

No sales is to the carries, this is the way they always report. When os7 products were not being sold to the carrier, but there was a significant # of phones sold to paying customers. The number reported was the number of phones shipped to carriers. The lower number.

For all kinds of accounting reasons this makes sense.

Posted via CB10

[psy fi]

Apple Inc. (AAPL), Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Drag Down Hedge Funds

[Superfly_FR]

Well in some cases, leveraging up to invest makes sense. Of course there is a limit to how leveraged you want to be and depends on your situation overall.

My answer was sure a general statement and I should have been more explicit.
BUT for Joes like me, this is a bad idea, especially if your calculation sits on a forecast like "$100 in a year".

As this thread is mostly dedicated to new comers on the planet finance, by no mean I would encourage a first experience based on credit.
As stated before (and I believe it's time to write it down again) ...

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

If you're not used to deal with stocks, the following should be your starting point.

1. This is real money. Your money. There's no tryouts nor refunds.
2. You must establish what is your capacity before entering the game. Set it and keep it as an absolute limit (you can add later, depending on your revenues profile). Generally, something like 15% of your currently available and free cash is a reasonable amount. Do not speculate with money you don't own in full (credit). If you lose, don't rely on things like "averaging down" or "buy on dips" unless you have additional cash that fits with this rule.
3. Stay calm. Looking at the stock on a day basis is hard for your nerves. Either good or bad, fluctuations can happen very fast.
4. We are a drop in the bucket, even those of us with 100s K $ in the game are nothing if we compare to the global cap (count in $K Billions)
5. Those playing "against" you have more power, more money and know how the market can react. You don't. Do not use "everyday" logic here. This "game" has its own rules and it takes a while to understand/accept them.
6. One possible approach is to play "long" (counting in years), this particular approach is the one I suggested when starting this thread back in Feb 2011. I personally stick to this approach, as it appears to be somehow the most adapted for rookies like us, engaging tiny amounts and with very limited skills. Be careful about fees/taxes you may have to pay for each transaction: they can ruin your gains easily.
7. Last but not least : stay humble and prudent.

[Superfly_FR]

I get what you are saying.
On the flip side, if the LOC is an excellent interest rate, I wouldn't hesitate if you have the means
to pay the interest monthly for a year-long position. People have done worse with margin accounts.
Also, don't forget that people buy larger homes than they actually need, borrow to fund the purchase and
over time it appreciates as an investment. Ours has appreciated roughly $65 grand since our purchase
just 3 years ago which compensated for the extra $75 grand loan we needed. Previous to that we had zero debt, so
taking on this loan for our home-upgrade-investment was a no-brainer.

Hi Rebekah,
I understand. Fiancially, you can decide to rely on credit instead of your available cash; in some cases it's worthy (for instance, in France, current credit rates for real estate (~3%) are close to the (avg projected) inflation rate (~2%), resulting in a borrow net cost around 1%). Yet, it is only a financial approach and means that you actually hold the same available cash and decide to place it in a 100% safe investment (returning over 1% net). But I didn't read this kind of strategy in the post that fired this discussion topic. Therefore the red lights I'm lightning.

You may decide to borrow for an important investment (house, car, ...) but as a base for investing in stocks (moreover on a single one) ... this just sounds a very bad idea to me.

[greggebhardt]

I know everyone is very happy over what BBRY has done the last few days, I know I am.

But be careful as things can turn ugly very quickly. You got to stay on top of it to stay safe. The ER is not our only time of risk.

Enough of a reminder, WE ARE ALL GOING TO BE RICH!

[Superfly_FR]

Read of this morning : BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins Keeps His Word - Seeking Alpha

Conclusion
We have started to see BlackBerry's hand unfold, and the direction is promising. It will take time for the complete vision to come to fruition, but it is clearly on its way. The short term viability has been proven, and should be confirmed on Friday's earnings call.
While it is true that the onrush of positive news from BlackBerry, is timely before the earnings call; I do not think that there are ulterior motives. The bear case would imply, that the release of information this week would soften the blow of a bad earnings report. If this was the case, I would expect BlackBerry to release new guidance prior to this Friday. This would be especially prudent, given Thorsten Heins previous bullish comments.

[Charles Martin1]

Other than any raids, I believe that the worst case for BBRY beyond Friday is an acknowledgement that the market needs more time to assess the potential of BlackBerry as a successful turnaround. In that case, we could expect a pop, plunge, and rebound that sees us dance between $15-$18 until September.

In that case I'll simply play the trading game again tor 3 months, following the MACD and RSI for buy and sell triggers.

BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins Keeps His Word - Seeking Alpha

[Charles Martin1]

Think I might find my way back to Oklahoma this summer for a few days of the Rattle Snake Roundup. I made a few thousand dollars on a good weekend catching snakes lots of times growing up. Been doing that since I was 10. Lots of money to put towards BBRY.

Snake soup!

[Charles Martin1]

Could it just be longs hedging?

Sent from my SPH-L900 using CB Forums mobile app

Good call (pun intended)

[Charles Martin1]

Curious what is everyone's take on predictions...

Less than four million shipped this quarter would be disappointing for me.

Last quarter, we shipped over a million in under 35 countries, in the shortest month of the year + USA was not included in this release.

Having launched in over 100 countries, plus the USA market:
I'm estimating a range of 5-7 million units of BB10 shipped, alongside 3-3.5 million BB7's.

I would really like to see 10+ million sold and some strong language about service revenue potential. I think we could see an EPS well above $1 and gross margins north of 45%. That's my best case, which would cause a squeeze.

I'm expecting 8-9 million sold, $1.20 EPS and 40% gross margins.

[Charles Martin1]

To gap up above $15 would be a good thing this morning, followed by a close above $16.

If we aim to close at about $16 I'm standing firm, all in. If we're into the $14s it's 50% off.

All the best!

[greggebhardt]

Starting out "slightly" green.

[EvanRitch]

Since I've owned this stock today is the 3rd most important day so I'm excited to watch the markets. Q4 was second and Q1 tomorrow will be most.

I don't think too many people will be stocking up today unless some insiders get in on the close.

[Charles Martin1]

I think that BES phones should each be included as subscribers. That would not only see a reversal but a substantial increase of perhaps 10+ million to previously reported numbers.

[take99]

Nice read here

Article Page | TheStreet

'However, I agree with Papageorgiou much more than I disagree with him on this quarter. Some of the other sell-side reports on BlackBerry make bold predictions on device sales but have a difficult time explaining where they came up with that number and how it trickles through to lead to an EPS estimate.
Papageorgiou may be way "out of consensus" on his call for BlackBerry this quarter, but I expect him to be closer to the mark than anyone else.

[jfguay2]

Here is something I found on the floor this morning, I could not help but laugh!!

Cheers,

JF

[Charles Martin1]

I believe that tomorrow our bears are going to suddenly become deer in headlights!!!

[Charles Martin1]

I believe that with BES phones included we will see subscription numbers soar and with that the bear thesis is dead.

[MrBurns2U]

Investors who shorted and are cautious about a good ER call will be protecting themselves by covering. We are cautious although we are long...I think it goes both ways. No one is 100% sure which direction we go. So gentle covering might be enough to give us a little boost today before the morning call.

Good Luck all!

A wise investor once said "I'm so long, I can wait!"