[InWithTheNew]

I see 4 million BB10s with that scenario.

WOW...

[lcjr]

Good morning gang!! Wow, there's a lot of speculation bouncing around isn't there. Well, got my German coffee and Nutri-grain bar for breakfast so I'm ready for whatever comes. haha. I do think we'll be in the same area today as last week. Not expecting much green today, but maybe later in the week. Hope everyone has a fantastic day.

[JonCBK]

Well my trade executed this morning at $13.51. I'm happy with that price and I'm happy to be in a little deeper in advance of the ER.

[InWithTheNew]

Read the transcript last night. Didn't see it.

Posted via CB10

This is the transcript from Jeffries Question. When the comments were made it was almost like a sidebar. I'm going to see if I can find the recorded call and listen for the exact wording.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator instructions.] Your first question today will come from the line of Peter Misek of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Peter Misek - Jefferies

Just a couple of quick questions here. Firstly on more of a housekeeping item, to understand cash flow movements. Just again, you sold through almost 2 million more units than you shipped, which implies channel inventory obviously was down almost 2 million, and you�re talking about basically operating cash flow breakeven in next quarter, which also implies no channel inventory, meaning, or said another way, you�re selling through absolutely every item you�re building. Can you confirm that logic makes senses? And doesn�t that mean that you�re being a little conservative on the cash flow side?

And then secondly, just on your marketing going up 50%, marketing�s part of SG&A. Can you help us understand if we look at the SG&A item, how much that is going up?

And then lastly, on services revenue, you guys lost around 3 million subs. You�ve articulated how those are broken by geography. But more interested to understand how on the corporate side that�s been looking, and how the adoption of your mobile device management strategy has been working. Thank you.
Brian Bidulka - Chief Financial Officer

I�ll take the first one on the cash flow. Your logic is roughly correct, although I wasn�t entirely sure on one of your points. But we are planning to invest in the launch, and that�s one of the big cash drivers in the quarter. But also, just in an inventory buildout and just our whole cash flow conversion cycle is where we�re expecting to see some impact on our cash position. But as I mentioned, we continue to believe we�re going to maintain that strong cash position throughout Q1.
Thorsten Gerhard Heins - CEO

A lot of questions. Let�s try to address them really briefly. On the marketing side, I mean, no doubt that we have to market Blackberry 10 strong, and that�s what we will be doing. So I think this is a very meaningful investment of ours to bring Blackberry 10 to market. And we�re actually fully supportive of those expenses, and we see good feedback on that one. On the enterprise, where is the 3 million subscribers coming from, our data show that it�s actually mostly coming out of what we call the pre-paid segment.

We see strong interest from our corporate customers in maintaining the BES installed base, because it means something to them. It means security, it means reliability. It is a network connection. And I think the numbers are reported in terms of customers signing up for the BES 10 and BB10 Get Ready program is testament them supporting us in the corporate domain.

[psy fi]

The DOW is down 210 and BBRY is only down 5 cents. Either the shorts are exhausted or Blackberry is just getting better.

[take99]

Detailed stock report here

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-i...service=mobile

[plasmid_boy]

Just asking everyone to stop drinking the "Blackberry Koolaid" by around Wednesday so that you go into the ER on Friday with a "clear head"!

It can go either way!

We mentioned the term "BlackBerry Koolaid" here periodically. I think that's been fine jokingly.
However, if we start to imply that we are being somehow brainwashed or mislead, then I think that's going a little too far. Who is providing the Koolaid? Most of us here do our own research on BlackBerry or TA analysis to guild our own decisions. I don't think that there is a common fountain of BlackBerry Koolaid here that we need to worry about.

[psy fi]

Except for earnings, which scores a 10 out of 10, the report has a very negative outlook for Blackberry, with only an average score of 3..

Detailed stock report here

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-i...service=mobile

[psy fi]

Now the DOW is down 217 and BBRY is actually up by 2 cents. I smell a turnaround.

[Bugmapper]

Except for earnings, which scores a 10 out of 10, the report has a very negative outlook for Blackberry, with only an average score of 3..

Glanced at the report briefly and it struck me as being significantly affected by past performance. Maybe not quite as relevant for what we know about the changes at Blackberry.

[MrBurns2U]

+.23 on TSX.

[lcjr]

We mentioned the term "BlackBerry Koolaid" here periodically. I think that's been fine jokingly.
However, if we start to imply that we are being somehow brainwashed or mislead, then I think that's going a little too far. Who is providing the Koolaid? Most of us here do our own research on BlackBerry or TA analysis to guild our own decisions. I don't think that there is a common fountain of BlackBerry Koolaid here that we need to worry about.

Agreed, but I think Gregg was just pointing out that it's really easy to get caught up in all this speculation and maybe take a minute before the ER and re-evaluate your position. Gregg has a good heart.

[OmarxGx]

Looks like we're seeing some investors banking on some quick cash off a positive ER

[FocusedBerry]

Bouncing nicely here. We have a solid base in the mid 13's.

[jrwb6e]

Well my trade executed this morning at $13.51. I'm happy with that price and I'm happy to be in a little deeper in advance of the ER.

Bet you're a lot happier now than when you posted.

[rebekahlynnharrison]

well, well, well, nice little run up this morning. And it's ONLY monday.

[psy fi]

You know, maybe people are selling their other shares and buying BB. We think of BB as a risky stock, but the whole market is pretty risky right now. I know Prem Watsa believe the market is set for a correction, and he's got a pretty good track record when it comes to thinks like that.

[plasmid_boy]

Agreed, but I think Gregg was just pointing out that it's really easy to get caught up in all this speculation and maybe take a minute before the ER and re-evaluate your position. Gregg has a good heart.

Sure, I understand that. Traders are probably going take advantage of imminent ER and the underlaying uncertainty to make a few bucks, so there will be choppy water ahead. But if the BB ship is tight and heading in the right direction, then it will likely get to where we want it to be - the $100 party on a private island...LOL

[bigbbrybeliever]

Well my trade executed this morning at $13.51. I'm happy with that price and I'm happy to be in a little deeper in advance of the ER.

Congratulation on the opening buy. You deserve to make some $$$.

[crackerdoodle]

Goldman reiterates neutral and $17 target. See significant beat

[tygros]

Here's my $0.02 (CAD$0.0211) on this weeks prognosis, with support where needed...
I think where we close EOD Thurs, or at least where we end up as the HOD, is the most critical from a prognostication standpoint for where we're set to go from on Friday. Notoriously, if we can't get above $14.50 by Thursday, we won't see $21+ no mater how much we blow it out - just based on gut and the rule of 50(%).

Expectations for $BBRY earnings:
1) Break-even on profitability - I've seen a lot of you throwing around how break-even would be a disappointment... ut I think if the sales are there, and we at least break-even, this sets up for a huge building opportunity. Anything above $0.10-.15 will be huge for the blowout potential (Highest est is $0.50 (besides Charles of course), while the mean is under $0.06 eps.
2) Sales Estimates (Units) have this as low as 1.5M BB10 units (F'd-aucette) to as high as 4MM. Anything north of 4MM BB10 devices would be huge.
3) Revenue - $3.4B to $4B is the goal - this is the mean and the highest estimate on the street. Anything north of $4B would be catastrophic for the shorts.
-- If we're profitable, and revenue blows out $4MM - LOOK OUT (ABOVE)
4) Cash Flow - Expectations are that $BBRY is draining cash-flow... However, BBRY took a charge in Q3 that covered investments in Marketing support for BB10 launch (This could've just been for the Superbowl, but who knows). This is what other have hinted at before - Marketing support doesn't have to be expensive when you take out the remnant TV fillers that are given to make up for any over-commitment from the Superbowl run. The Verizon ads are NOT paid for by BBRY - though they may be subsidizing. I think the summary here is if $BBRY is still above $0.40 cash flow generated per share from continuing ops, then we'll be fine in terms of growth in the future... and more importantly, we'll negate almost ALL of the negative future quarter disaster expectations which are based on the assumption that BBRY is burning cash!

Additional Pluses that can come out of announcements: ???

[peter9477]

Gotta love it. I had a great laugh when I came back to the computer and checked the price. It had been down 1.9% or more in premarket, as I recall.

I then saw a news headline "At the open: TSX plunges more than 200 points". Given how BBRY operates, I had high hopes and sure enough: up >2%. I find it hilarious how contrarian this stock can be some days.

Let's see... TSX down 2%, BB up 3%, I call that a 5% gain for the first hour of trading. Woot! :-) (I know, I know... 10:30 is coming up. Let me have my fun.)

[crackerdoodle]

Goldman sees 3.53 bill revenue/ .16 earinings/ 3.5 mill BB10/ 4.2 mill BB7

[take99]

Barrons

Analysts continue to handicap BlackBerry‘s (BBRY) fiscal Q1 report expected Friday morning before market open. UBS’s Amitabh Passi reiterates a Neutral rating and a $13 price target, writing that there’s probably upside to consensus, with perhaps $3.37 billion in revenue and 10 cents EPS. Actually, consensus this morning is now up a bit, at $3.38 billion and 6 cents, per FactSet. Passig writes that “long-term concerns remain.”
Anil Doradla of William Blair reiterates a Market Perform rating, writing that “consensus estimates are achievable,” driven by better sales of the Q10 smartphone than the prior Z10. However, he writes, “With BlackBerry 10 sales being dominated by shrinking base of loyal subscribers, our checks confirmed that BlackBerry faces serious long-term challenges.”
BlackBerry shares are bucking a down market. After initially opening lower, the shares are now up 6 cents, or half a percent, at $13.84.

[Bugmapper]

Just a fluff piece, but good title.

Three top contenders for smart-phone supremacy