[plasmid_boy]

After reading for the last 20 minutes in this forum, I am seeing a lot of caution which I think is wise.

With less than a stellar ER, BBRY will and can take a real negative drop! With all the lack of news from Blackberry, I fear a ER that is not so good.

On the other hand, a good ER will make BBRY move forward, even with the shorts!

I wish us all good luck on Friday!

Balls of steel or maybe stupidity, but I am not worry at all. All devices and partnerships so far had been successful in my eyes, and the future is looking good. What's there to worry? This is probably one of the safest bet I made in my life so far.

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[Blaisep]

Something to consider.IF we put out some good numbers Friday should be amazing as TSX is closed monday correct? If things are great maybe the shorts in canada sell off on friday because if things go up like crazy in the states on monday then the shorts in Canada would be screwed hahahah!!!!!!!!! So my guess is they would want out on friday in canada triggering a bigger rise!

Shares are fungible between the two exchanges so doesn't matter where they are shorted/covered except obviously the foreign exchange effect.

[snejpa]

What I fear most is the loss in subscriber base. Especially in the core markets like UAE or Indonesia.
In the UAE, BlackBerry had a market share of 27.2 per cent in the first quarter compared to 35 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year,� said Hamza Saleem, senior research analyst at IDC. (BlackBerry targets youth with Q5 smartphone | GulfNews.com)

I guess that such a trend can't be stopped within just one quarter. And the bears will love to see a further loss of subscribers...

[cjcampbell]

.88 means more than 8 million BB10 devices.

Only if you're assuming device sales as the only source of income growth. There have been BES10 adoption so more CALS sold, more cost cutting measures, and severance packages ending. I'm not saying it will be that high but we need to look beyond simply devices.

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[The Selected Fruit]

Good morning everyone!

I personally think that we are going to see good upside to the SP after the ER because the investors' expectations are so low now, having been bombarded by negative news on a regular basis for the last 6 weeks.

What we are seeing in the SP now is simply recycled money. To propel the SP to new highs (or higher!) we need fresh money.

I put up a chart 5 weeks ago showing the 200/400 SMA crossover indicator used by long term institutional investors and hedge funds. This is what it looked then.



Now, see below for the updated chart, zoomed in for clarity. The 200 SMA is crossing through the 400 SMA this week. I think we are going to see some major investors climb aboard in the next few weeks, particularly as it is likely the numbers in the ER this week should impress. To be sure, yes, some stubborn bears WILL put a negative spin wherever they can however this could will be the beginning of the long road to turn the tide of the investors' current perception in BlackBerry.

[greggebhardt]

Balls of steel or maybe stupidity, but I am not worry at all. All devices and partnerships so far had been successful in my eyes, and the future is looking good. What's there to worry? This is probably one of the safest bet I made in my life so far.

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Just asking everyone to stop drinking the "Blackberry Koolaid" by around Wednesday so that you go into the ER on Friday with a "clear head"!

It can go either way!

[matthewriedle]

What I fear most is the loss in subscriber base. Especially in the core markets like UAE or Indonesia.
In the UAE, BlackBerry had a market share of 27.2 per cent in the first quarter compared to 35 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year,” said Hamza Saleem, senior research analyst at IDC. (BlackBerry targets youth with Q5 smartphone | GulfNews.com)

I guess that such a trend can't be stopped within just one quarter. And the bears will love to see a further loss of subscribers...

He is speaking in calendar year terms which therefore would already be priced into the stock.
ie: Old news

[BlackistheBerry]

Only if you're assuming device sales as the only source of income growth. There have been BES10 adoption so more CALS sold, more cost cutting measures, and severance packages ending. I'm not saying it will be that high but we need to look beyond simply devices.

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Am not sure about this, but didn't they say in the previous ER that their app margins are considerably higher than other platforms too?
I think nobody is taking it into consideration and assuming it's breakeven.

[cjcampbell]

Am not sure about this, but didn't they say in the previous ER that their app margins are considerably higher than other platforms too?
I think nobody is taking it into consideration and assuming it's breakeven.

I thought about the app sales for a while and although they are making more money than they have in the past due to far more apps being downloaded, I think it will still be a very nominal amount put toward the bottom line.

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[spiller]

After reading for the last 20 minutes in this forum, I am seeing a lot of caution which I think is wise.

With less than a stellar ER, BBRY will and can take a real negative drop! With all the lack of news from Blackberry, I fear a ER that is not so good.

On the other hand, a good ER will make BBRY move forward, even with the shorts!

I wish us all good luck on Friday!

I really think the lack of news is because blackberry has been trying to get a partnership deal done with Lenovo. Maybe it is done. Thorsten said at blackberry live to "watch out for that" or something to that effect implying news of a something to fill in the lower end offerings, which is likely through a partnership. Who know when but I'd be happy with Friday

[spiller]

.88 means more than 8 million BB10 devices.

They did .20 on 1M BB10 and 5 M BB7.

So They could do .70ish on 5M BB10. But then to account for the added marketing.

I'm gonna hope for .80 but I think .50+ min.

[spiller]

Something to consider.IF we put out some good numbers Friday should be amazing as TSX is closed monday correct? If things are great maybe the shorts in canada sell off on friday because if things go up like crazy in the states on monday then the shorts in Canada would be screwed hahahah!!!!!!!!! So my guess is they would want out on friday in canada triggering a bigger rise!

That could help. It needs to pop to 18ish though I think on Friday to have them cover in that scenario.

[EvanRitch]

Well the Peter Misek interview on BNN is all I need for my reassurance. Who should we believe more Misek who's company does tireless research. Or Faucette who gets out of bed and goes to a store down the street to give his assesment. Ill go with Misek

[take99]

Goldman neutral


StreetInsider.com - BlackBerry (BBRY) Expected to Beat FQ1; Long Term Picture Not So Bright

[OMGitworks]

Well the Peter Misek interview on BNN is all I need for my reassurance. Who should we believe more Misek who's company does tireless research. Or Faucette who gets out of bed and goes to a store down the street to give his assesment. Ill go with Misek

Just remember that not that long ago when Misek was negative on RIM (at the time) he was ridiculed and treated at least as bad as Faucette here.

I'd rather go by the substance of what they are telling us and not whether they are pro or con. Not saying Misek is wrong or Faucette is correct just to be careful reading too much into a report just because of the person's position on BBRY. No doubt Faucette will try to point to negative things after ER such as shrinking subscriber base, when he reiterates his sell recommendation. That doesn't necessarily make him completely wrong.

[morganplus8]

One thing I really want to know .... who are these sharts? What's their goal ... their endgame? I'll post the question to everyone for some great speculation and discussion. But first I'd like to hear from Morgan...

Personally, I truly believe there's something or someone insidious behind it ... a presence that I have not felt in a long long time (enter Darth Vader and the Supreme Chancellor) ..

jon_stark_28!

Ha! I'm not sure there is anything sinister going on with BBRY here! We have a few large investors in BBRY and those shareholders are determined to see BBRY survive. I also think there are an equal number of large short positions who have hedged their position with the likes of AAPL and they still think we are a few quarters away from knowing whether BBRY will survive. The stock, for its part has rallied hard early in the year, peaking just before the launch of the Z10 phone. Since then, the stock has undergone a tug of war between the two forces as they align themselves for the next phase of the rally.

BlackBerry is a Canadian company, it isn't heavily regulated, I believe there are naked shorts out there moving the stock on a weekly basis, I also believe the available stock to be lent out has been capped so we are going to see the stock trade on much lighter volume with naked shorting forced to cover on much more limited terms. It doesn't cost much to crush this stock, the media is onside, the dollar amount is small to a Hedge Fund, and so we are controlled by the news of the day. When guys like Misek are able raise their targets on BBRY, via improved data such as subs and EPS, then we will see the shorts unwind their trade. So far, that data doesn't exist. I see us developing a trading pattern that looks like the period just before we started the rally off the lows back in September.



As you can see by the Bollinger Bands, we are right back to where we were when we begin a major move higher. I see the Bands closing in, getting tighter here and I see us beginning a rally soon. It seems to play out perfectly here for another run to new highs.

Today I see us confirming Fridays lows around $ 13.60's and basing from there. We have huge support $ .20/shr below us and a very steep decline to resolve:



As crazy as it sounds, the entire short issue with BBRY now comes down to the company, can they deliver growth? If the answer is "yes" the short have the trade wrong. Is there a conspiracy, like AAPL shorting BBRY and paying to have the media crush their competition; sounds possible to me but there is zero evidence of that happening so far!

Let's get out of this "dark" moment in history and begin the rally all of us have been waiting for months now. It would throw the market for a loop if BBRY begins to record all of those who are accessing BlackBerry World, aside from the traditional method of counting subs, the number could be impressive with BES10. If the market can no longer use the traditional subs calculation as a bashing point, the shorts could be in trouble sooner than they think.

[OMGitworks]

That could help. It needs to pop to 18ish though I think on Friday to have them cover in that scenario.

The large shorts aren't covering at 18. Been there and they didn't do it. They can hold out for a while and an inevitable pull back if they want to get out. My guess is we need $23-25 to push out the weaker shorts and $25+ to see any sort of meaningful squeeze. JMHO....

[peter9477]

The large shorts aren't covering at 18. Been there and they didn't do it. They can hold out for a while and an inevitable pull back if they want to get out. My guess is we need $23-25 to push out the weaker shorts and $25+ to see any sort of meaningful squeeze. JMHO....

Getting back to $18 after what we've been through is a lot different than getting to $18 over the course of a few days around launch back in January. I think they knew it was a fragile gain and they could push it back down easily. This time I think it would be rather different, after what's gone past the last few months.

[matthewriedle]

The large shorts aren't covering at 18. Been there and they didn't do it. They can hold out for a while and an inevitable pull back if they want to get out. My guess is we need $23-25 to push out the weaker shorts and $25+ to see any sort of meaningful squeeze. JMHO....

I don't think it's the price at any one time that pushes the shorts out. It's all about the narrative. Once that changes then watch out.

[matthewriedle]

Getting back to $18 after what we've been through is a lot different than getting to $18 over the course of a few days around launch back in January. I think they knew it was a fragile gain and they could push it back down easily. This time I think it would be rather different, after what's gone past the last few months.

Peter, with you having an app for BB10 – you must have an idea of sales? Ever done any inference on downloads to BB10 uptake?

[EvanRitch]

WOW BB.TO showing $14 bid $14 ask. I dont want more but if we are going lower quickly im gonna buy more

[peter9477]

Peter, with you having an app for BB10 – you must have an idea of sales? Ever done any inference on downloads to BB10 uptake?

I've tried that, but after collecting enough data from my and others' apps, I gave it up. Among other problems, CrackBerry forum activity regarding an app can make a 100% difference in daily sales levels (at least, for Battery Guru, when people discuss battery problems regularly). I'd also see what looked like notable trends in one app, but not see it reflected at all in other apps, mine or those of other devs (and vice versa).

I think you'd need popular apps on multiple platforms, or perhaps focus on free apps that would be downloaded by a highly consistent ratio of new BB10 buyers, before you could extract reliable data from app numbers like that. Eric Harty (Ebscer) has tried doing that based on some of his free apps: Predicting BlackBerry’s Q1 sales � Ebscer News

[morganplus8]

WOW BB.TO showing $14 bid $14 ask. I dont want more but if we are going lower quickly im gonna buy more

Just because the Bid and Ask are equally priced, doesn't mean the pre-market trade is anywhere close to that level. If you look at the Bid and Ask volume:



You will see, Bid = 99.9 and Ask = 95.8 meaning that the Bid is swamping the Ask. You will only know by how much the Bid is swamping the Ask when the market starts to trade,. In this case, we are only down slightly as the Canadian Dollar is getting kicked again. We found support at the $ 13.50/shr/US level like we did on the last sell-off, the DOW is getting hit hard, look for a rally now.

[greggebhardt]

Well, if this happens everyday, we will need one heck of a ER !

[kfh227]

Listen to the conference call when Misek asks about the guidance and questions them saying something along the lines of " looks like you're going to beat next quarter, but you gave very conservative guidance." Getting my kids ready for school. I look for the transcript in a bit.

Read the transcript last night. Didn't see it.

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