[take99]

Still had it open so here it is

Is Microsoft abandoning its mobile operating systems?

Summary: In recent weeks Microsoft has been doing some odd things with mobile operating systems, Windows RT, and Windows Phone 8. I think Microsoft is moving towards dropping its mobile OSs in favor of supporting Microsoft applications on other platforms and eventually replacing them with Windows 8.1 on their own devices.

This is not your dad's Microsoft. Microsoft has been refocusing on Web services and devices instead of Windows and software products. One of those changes seems to be that if Microsoft's mobile operating systems can't cut the mustard, Microsoft isn't afraid to cut them off at the knees.


It's pretty to say that Windows RT has been a total flop. (Credit: IDC)
What am I talking about? Let's look at some of Microsoft's mobile news in the last few weeks.

First, some background. Goodness knows Windows 8 has been a market failure, but it's a rip-roaring success compared to Windows RT and Windows Phone 8 (WP8).

WP8 has finally clawed its way up to third place on smartphone operating systems with 3.2-percent of the market. Android owns the smartphone market though with 75-percent of the market and Apple's iOS hanging on to 17.3-percent.

You might think WP8's growth was good news, but its rise has far more to do with Windows and Symbian's fall than its own organic growth. What's even more telling is that developers seem to be abandoning the platform.


It appears that WP8 developers are already abandoning the operating system for the greener fields of Apple iOS and Google Android.
Sameer Singh, the head analyst of BitChemy Ventures, a technology incubator group, recently observed that "Since mid-2012, app addition on the Windows Phone platform seems to have flat-lined. This is in stark contrast with app addition on Android & iOS over the same time-frame, even though the developer population at the time was smaller." He continued, "The unmistakable conclusion … is that developers are losing interest in the Windows Phone platform."

But, you know what really told me that WP8 is in trouble? Microsoft's own develioers aren't backing WP8. Microsoft just updated its Skype Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP) program to support video mail: Skype video messaging. This feature is fully supported on Windows Desktop, Windows 8, Mac, iPhone, iPad, Android and BlackBerry... but not on WP8.

Yes, you read that right. Even BlackBerry gets the full Skype video messaging, but Microsoft's own WP8 doesn't. Oh, and by the way, Skype's how to use video messaging FAQ doesn't even mention WP8 or RT.

What I find even more telling is that Microsoft is finally offering the crown-jewels of its applications, Office, to iPhone users. The mobile version of its Word, Excel and PowerPoint products is now available for iPhone users via its Office 365 Web services. It's only a matter of time before a full tablet-sized version is available for iPads. After that, I'm sure it will show up on Android smartphones and tablets.

A hands-on look at Microsoft Office for the iPhone

That leaves me with two questions: With Microsoft supporting its apps on Android and iOS why in the world would you trade in your Nexus 7 or iPad for a Surface RT? Or, your Galaxy S4 or iPhone 5 for a Nokia Lumia 928? The answer in both cases is you wouldn't and Microsoft isn't giving you any reasons to switch.

Let's also not forget that Windows Phone 8 and RT are both feature incomplete compared to their competition for business use. WP8 still doesn't support virtual private networks (VPN) and RT will only get Microsoft's core e-mail program, Outlook, late this year... if it even gets Outlook then. It may now show up until October 2014 .

Frankly I doubt Windows RT will even be around in late 2014. Microsoft started dumping Surface RT tablets in early June and in mid-June they started an educational market fire-sale for the unpopular tablet.

How unpopular is it? By IDC's numbers in the first quarter Windows RT tablets stumbled out of the opening date to 0.2-percent of the market. Windows 8 tablets, at 3.3-percent had nothing to write home about either, but it was more eight-times better than RT.

With numbers like that I think you can see why I think Microsoft will let Windows RT die.

In RT's place, I see Microsoft redoubling its efforts on Windows 8.1-based devices. The ARM-powered RT devices will be replaced by Intel Silvermont/Bay Trail tablets running Windows 8.1.

It makes sense. This long-battery life processor family will give Microsoft a low-end tablet that can run "real" Windows instead of crippleware RT. Indeed, the Intel Silvermont/Merrifield, which is designed for smartphones, might enable Microsoft to replace WP8 with Windows 8.1 on phones.

You may have noticed that Microsoft has been listening to its customers more lately. Microsoft's customers have also been telling them in no uncertain terms that they're not interested in WP8 and RT.

What this adds up to is that I think Microsoft is going to continue to put its efforts on putting its Web-based applications and services on any platform—not just its own. In time, Microsoft's mobile operating systems, WP8 and RT, are going to be left to wither and die. In turn, they'll be replaced by Windows 8.1 as the x86 chip family becomes more tablet and smartphone friendly.

Good-bye RT, WP8, I wish I could say it's been nice to know you. I can't. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[cjcampbell]

I just came across this and it's pretty interesting. There seems to be a fake BBM app in Google's Play Store. What I like to see, is that there have, apparently, been over 100k downloads of this fake app already. Once the real one launches, it will be a HUGE hit.

PSA: This "Blackberry Messenger BBM" Published By Developer RIM Has 100k+ Installs But Is As Fake As It Gets

[InWithTheNew]

Hi All,

I've created a bbm group for the purposes of discusses friday's earnings release. You can post your PIN and I will add you when I can or, better yet, scan the barcode below.

This is mostly for selfish purposes as I'm not sure if I will be able to listen live and hopefully others will be able to keep the rest of us up to date.

Cheers.

Posted via CB10



Attachment 175245

I've scanned, Sean H.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

Nice article on multi tasking from our friend Karl D

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY): Blackberry's Z10 - Why You WANT One | iStockAnalyst.com

[InWithTheNew]

Hey everyone, just here staring at the ceiling fan and thinking again. The sell side will continue to short this, and I'll tell you why. Every quarter they will try and predict the bad quarter, but the bad quarter won't happen. BlackBerry will release a new phone that serves a different purpose or area each quarter. Come next year that means that I newer fresher z10 will be launched, as well as a newer fresher q10 and so on.

Just like how long were caught off guard in 2011 when it was predicted that Blackberry wouldn't have another profitable quarter but kind of did, and that made longs hold on. Same thing here with the shorts. It's predicted that since last quarter blackberry would make a profit, and they will also make a profit here. The sharts are going to be caught off guard. We have new devices getting warm reception every quarter, release of new features like bbm across the board, bbm channels, bbm money. Speaking of which, maybe BlackBerry should look into adding a video clip feature as well for BBM channels.

Posted via CB10

[sparkaction]

Hey everyone, just here staring at the ceiling fan and thinking again. The sell side will continue to short this, and I'll tell you why. Every quarter they will try and predict the bad quarter, but the bad quarter won't happen. BlackBerry will release a new phone that serves a different purpose or area each quarter. Come next year that means that I newer fresher z10 will be launched, as well as a newer fresher q10 and so on.

Just like how long were caught off guard in 2011 when it was predicted that Blackberry wouldn't have another profitable quarter but kind of did, and that made longs hold on. Same thing here with the shorts. It's predicted that since last quarter blackberry would make a profit, and they will also make a profit here. The sharts are going to be caught off guard. We have new devices getting warm reception every quarter, release of new features like bbm across the board, bbm channels, bbm money. Speaking of which, maybe BlackBerry should look into adding a video clip feature as well for BBM channels.

Posted via CB10

The shorts are not primarily concerned with reported profits IMO. I believe it comes down to subscriber growth. If on June 28, bbry reports positive earnings but declining subscribers then the SP will go no where. If lost subscriber continues and has accelerated since the last quarter then look for the SP to decline further. The shorts' thesis is (I believe) if BlackBerry continues to loss subscribers then they are not participating in the global growth of the smartphone market and will adventually go bankrupt.

The bankrupt thesis for this debtless company will transpire when expenses will transpire when expenses exceed revenues resulting in the company "bleeding" to death. This is my thoughts on what shorts may bethinking. I am currently long but will run for the hills if on Jun28 Thor forecasts more subscriber loss for the current quarter.

[JonCBK]

In case it opens with a bump, I still want to get on Monday morning.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

[JonCBK]

I scooped up some more at $13.90 ... just wondering why at $14.50.. shouldn't up try to buy low as possible

BBM CHANNEL C000EF854 < bbry stocks*C0004ABC9

Sorry should have quoted.
I gave myself a cushion in case the stock opens up in the morning. I didn't want to miss out. The order should just execute at the market price up to 14.50. I'm assuming it won't open at that price but the stock is so volatile one never knows what it will open at, especially after a weekend which gives us two fully days of info since the stick price was set.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

[JonCBK]

This is my first time ever buying stock. I already spent all I had back in November. Can't buy more. Been holding since then. Have had so many opportunities to play the dips since then but didn't sell.

Now I was planning on selling some (HALF) too but if we see a short squeeze post June, I'd feel pretty stupid for doing this after having resisted so many times when stock was much more volatile.

I guess I can hold untill end of the year or maybe mid-next year and wait for eventual squeeze.


Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!

While I believe in BBRY and more particular the market for qwerty phones which are really secure, if you really are `spending all you had` then this a dangerous game you are playing. I'm in BBRY myself so I think this trade is an good one. But the emphasis is on think. I and I suspect lots of folks here even though invested in bbry it is only a fraction of our net worth. This is a stock that could drop in half any day. You have to be able to take that hit. Otherwise you shouldn't be doing this.

Obviously I don't think the stock will drop like that. Heck I'm buying more Monday morning. But most of my cash is in index funds. Boring boring stuff. So don't get too carried away here. I like our chances, but we still have yet to see how the consumer market will respond to blackberry `s new phones. We will know more at the ER but if that is bad news the stock will get hammered.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

[Randeman]

Didn't they already forecast a subscriber loss in the single digits at the last ER?

Posted via CB10

[take99]

69 % inst ownership and 'Odyssey Reinsurance' has 20 mill shares???

What is going on with these sites data?

Ownership, institutional ownership, 5 % ownership - MSN Money

[JonCBK]

The bankrupt thesis for this debtless company will transpire when expenses will transpire when expenses exceed revenues resulting in the company "bleeding" to death. This is my thoughts on what shorts may bethinking. I am currently long but will run for the hills if on Jun28 Thor forecasts more subscriber loss for the current quarter.

Will you run for the hills if the margin on the Q10 is 35% and they report selling 2 million of them? Isn't there a point where subscribers isn't the story anymore?

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

[take99]

Maybe the 28th might not be a catalyst but what about the 31st when the new positions have to be filed?

[InWithTheNew]

The shorts are not primarily concerned with reported profits IMO. I believe it comes down to subscriber growth. If on June 28, bbry reports positive earnings but declining subscribers then the SP will go no where. If lost subscriber continues and has accelerated since the last quarter then look for the SP to decline further. The shorts' thesis is (I believe) if BlackBerry continues to loss subscribers then they are not participating in the global growth of the smartphone market and will adventually go bankrupt.

The bankrupt thesis for this debtless company will transpire when expenses will transpire when expenses exceed revenues resulting in the company "bleeding" to death. This is my thoughts on what shorts may bethinking. I am currently long but will run for the hills if on Jun28 Thor forecasts more subscriber loss for the current quarter.

I don't know who really would want to short a stock and not give a crap that the company YOY has revenue and profit growth. Subs aren't counted the same as before. They've somewhat outlined how they plan to increase subscriber growth, and that's though the BB10 enterprise, which includes device management.

Shorts just don't believe that people are willing to buy blackberry devices. If the forecast for this Friday is to report a .03 gain and we get .60 cents and a forecast to get same or better numbers next quarter then said short is a dumdum, because it's obvious that Blackberry is very conservative and sandbagging. They admitted during the last call to be possibly sandbagging and I think the question was asked by Misek and they slipped out and confirmed it.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

Odyssey reinsurance is part of Fairfax, did Prem increase his stake?

The financial strength of our parent, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited with its equity base of $8.9 billion, further fortifies OdysseyRe’s capability in the reinsurance and specialty insurance markets around the world.

[InWithTheNew]

Maybe the 28th might not be a catalyst but what about the 31st when the new positions have to be filed?

Good point. Let BlackBerry pop and everyone and their mother is going to be window dressing and acting like they bought BBRY that quarter.


Posted via CB10

[take99]

Pretty interesting, here you can see Primecaps filing which shows how they control voting rights for only 6 mill of their 26 mill shares meaning they've borrowed 20 mill to the shorts. I think a squeeze is coming, its just a matter of timing. I'll place my bets on Prem and Co winning and the stock hitting 40. Jmo of course.

SEC Filings: Recent Filings Along With SEC Form 10-K Reports - MSN Money

[vintel]

In last 6 months, at every big BlackBerry events, SP has gone down. This time, I really hope that It reverse and TH come out much like tesla CEO.

Eventually now he has to come out as BOLD. It's now time to show stars to shorties during the day time.

Come on TH, be BOLD and support your investors.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

Didn't know this. Possible revenue stream from other devices



•
Selected by EnStream, a joint venture of Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Partnership and TELUS Communications Company, to provide its Secure Element Manager (SEM) solution to manage credentials on wireless handsets in Canada that support Near Field Communication (NFC) Service. NFC is the technology that can make secure, convenient and contactless mobile payments a reality for Canadian wireless handset users. BlackBerry’s SEM solution is designed to securely manage credentials on SIM (subscriber identity module) cards installed in all types of mobile devices, including BlackBerry smartphones, Android devices and Windows phones.

[Charles Martin1]

This stock will only climb solidly after the institutions have invested much more heavily. The retail investors have weak hands are largely unsophisticated and therefore cause extreme volatility.

[take99]

Ok figured this out. Odyssey is mistakenly listed on msn as a separate inst owner as they are part of prems sec filing and are incl in his 51 mill shares

SEC Filings: Recent Filings Along With SEC Form 10-K Reports - MSN Money

[morganplus8]

Thought I would post the chart to start us off Monday morning:



This is about as clean of a chart as you can get. It has a methodical sell-off back to our pennant uptrend line, and, it has a short-term uptrend line that it is following as well. In addition, the downtrend line is very steep meaning that we are three times right for a rally on Monday. Even the 5-ema is dropping fast so that we are able to break above it again first thing on Monday. All systems are go for a much better week with a rally to at least $ 14.75/she or the first line of resistance prior to hearing from Heins. Good luck to everyone!

[peter9477]

While I believe in BBRY and more particular the market for qwerty phones which are really secure, if you really are `spending all you had` then this a dangerous game you are playing. I'm in BBRY myself so I think this trade is an good one. But the emphasis is on think. I and I suspect lots of folks here even though invested in bbry it is only a fraction of our net worth.

This is a good time for me to point out that Fairfax has around 30% of its portfolio in BBRY shares right now.

I recall reading an interview with Watsa (or possibly it was someone else but I don't think it matters to my point) where he pointed out that if you have yourself spread too thinly among a lot of different companies, then it becomes extremely difficult to get better than average returns. You're obviously cushioned against bad picks dropping your net worth significantly, but likewise you can't really expect any big increases either.

There are lots of ways to invest. I happen to have more than 50% of my own holdings in BB stock at this point. I do agree that having 100% would be foolhardy -- in my position -- but if I had a portfolio worth much less, I think I'd be okay with going all in on BB right now. I'd rather gamble on their success (which I consider likely, over the medium term) and gain a lot, than spread my risk around too much and get only a few percentage points boost from BBRY succeeding.

[peter9477]

One more from Misek:

Channel Checks for Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Look Very Good Pre-Earnings: Misek

And a Debbie Downer from Credit Suisse: Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) Losing Traction: CS

[Dapper37]

Interesting times in WinMo world??

Microsoft abandoned Nokia acquisition talks

Microsoft recently abandoned talks with Nokia about buying the Finnish company?s handset division, according to Wall Street Journal sources.

The discussions reportedly took place as recently as this month but failed to develop into anything due to concerns about price and Nokia?s declining position in the market. The discussions are unlikely to be revived, the sources added.

Nokia is valued at more than $14 billion on the US stock market and the company?s phone unit contributed nearly half of its $40.15 billion in revenue in 2012.

A Nokia spokeswoman told the Wall Street Journal: ?We have a deep partnership with Microsoft, and it is not uncommon for Nokia and Microsoft to meet on a regular basis.?

Microsoft declined to comment.

Led by former Microsoft executive Stephen Elop, Nokia committed to Microsoft?s Windows Phone platform for its smartphones in a deal announced in February 2011. The agreement also included Microsoft providing billions of dollars to help Nokia?s marketing and engineering efforts.

Nokia has released a number of Windows Phone devices under the Lumia brand, with limited success. The company?s first quarter results for 2013 saw smartphone sales fall 32 per cent year-on-year to ?1.16 billion. There was a 49 per cent drop in the number of smartphones shipped ? 6.1 million units, 5.6 million of which were Lumia devices.

However, Nokia accounted for 79 per cent of all Windows Phone devices sold during the first quarter of 2013, according to IDC.

Despite Nokia?s support, Windows Phone has struggled to gain traction. It has overtaken BlackBerry to become the third-largest selling mobile OS buthas struggled to make progress against iOS and Android.

The Microsoft OS had market share of around 3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, according to research firm IDC, compared to Android?s 75 per cent.

Nokia is the only handset vendor to follow a Windows Phone-only smartphone strategy, while other major handset vendors, such as Samsung and HTC, treat Windows Phone as a sideline to Android

Posted via CB10