[bigbbrybeliever]

Suscribers already include BB10 (and even playbook i guess) since the last quarter.

It is my understanding that to be classed as "subscriber" who is paying a monthly or yearly fee for some services directly provided by BlackBerry.
By this definition, any BB7 or BB10 owners do not subscribe the service provided by the company will not be counted as "Subscriber".
On other hand, in the future when BES10 is deployed by a company, any type mobile phone users (such as Droid or iPhone) who are using the BE10 service will be counted as "Subscriber".

[morganplus8]

Here's the chart I'm hoping for today, and for the rest of the week, for that matter:



This is the short-term pattern for the stock, we are forming a flag that started back at the beginning of May and I'm hoping we stay inside this pattern until we break to the upside. Today is a great day, the DOW is getting killed and we are trending sideways so far, and on light volume. It would be nice to see us move closer to those 5-ema and 7-dma indicators as the afternoon wears on here. So far, not a bad day.

[tiziano27]

It is my understanding that to be classed as "subscriber" who is paying a monthly or yearly fee for some services directly provided by BlackBerry.
By this definition, any BB7 or BB10 owners do not subscribe the service provided by the company will not be counted as "Subscriber".
On other hand, in the future when BES10 is deployed by a company, any type mobile phone users (such as Droid or iPhone) who are using the BE10 service will be counted as "Subscriber".

In the last quarter financial report a couple of pages were dedicate to this change, here a quote:

To reflect the changes described above, and to better address possible future strategies and service and software revenue opportunities related to an integrated services and software offering for the BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform, RIM will be adjusting the methodology it uses to calculate the size of its subscriber base for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 and subsequent fiscal quarters. Rather than calculating the total of all subscriber accounts that have an active status at the end of a reporting period and for which infrastructure access fees are thereby generated, RIM will identify its BlackBerry subscriber base as the total of all BlackBerry subscriber accounts that are provisioned to access BlackBerry services, regardless of whether RIM is receiving infrastructure access fees from each such subscriber in any given month. The Company believes this change will better reflect the base of BlackBerry users that may contribute to service revenues in the future, whether solely through infrastructure access fees or the integrated service and software offering being developed.

What I understand is that any device that has a BB account and potentially could consume any type of service even the App Store is considered a subscriber.

[jrwb6e]

Sometimes I just have to write it out. Thank you Morgan!

[psy fi]

Wouldn't it be great if we could finish in the black today? That will strike some fear into the shorts, seeing BBRY finish higher on a day that the market is crashing.

[tiziano27]

So what do you think Misek was implying. 8M people left the BB platform last Q? Then BB7 4M new subs + 4M BB10 sales to offset?

I think Misek was implying loss of 5M BB7 active devices offset by new BB10 devices.

Maybe... IMO Misek is not clear to present his numbers.
But wouldn't be a surprise a big loss of subscribers, Android is eating everything in the low end. A big chunk of the BB users are in that strata, I don't remember the share, but I think it was close or more than 50%.

[Bugmapper]

Haven't seen one of these leaked in a while. So far it looks fairly accurate, so maybe we can expect some hints next Thursday about the other two devices and the BB10 upgrade for playbook on this roadmap.

[spiller]

In the last quarter financial report a couple of pages were dedicate to this change, here a quote:



What I understand is that any device that has a BB account and potentially could consume any type of service even the App Store is considered a subscriber.

Bingo. So hopefully we only lose 2M BB7 users to other platforms (down from 3.5 last Q), and gain 2M BB10 users from other platforms (up from 0.5M last Q), and end up with an even "offset" at 76M subs. The remaining sell through are upgrades to either BB7 or BB10.

[ItsTheBox]

U-g-l-y

[morganplus8]

Wouldn't it be great if we could finish in the black today? That will strike some fear into the shorts, seeing BBRY finish higher on a day that the market is crashing.

Okay, just because you are so hopeful of a bounce today, here is my reason for holding the pattern we have now:



See the green line? That green line will need to be broken to the upside tomorrow and this market is grossly over-sold today, BBRY could gap up tomorrow at the open and rally right back to the upper blue resistance line. That's how volatile this stock is going to be as we head for June 28th. The bears aren't going to like the snap-back if we hold here and gap up tomorrow. So much for the sell-off.

I see us gapping above that steep downtrend line in green. GL

[spiller]

Maybe... IMO Misek is not clear to present his numbers.
But wouldn't be a surprise a big loss of subscribers, Android is eating everything in the low end. A big chunk of the BB users are in that strata, I don't remember the share, but I think it was close or more than 50%.

Ok let's say 50% of 75M subs = 37.5 subs. Ammortized loss over 24 month upgrade cycle = 37.5 / 12 * 3 (months/q) = 4.7M lost BB7 subs IF 100% of those users move to Android. Let's say 50% stay and either upgrade to new BB7 as they love their cheap data plan packages, or they are waiting patiently for Q5 mid end or end of year low end.

Would mean 2.35M lost BB7 subs.

If we gain 2M BB10 users (out of 4.5M BB10 sales), and round up to the million, we could stay even.

[spiller]

Okay, just because you are so hopeful of a bounce today, here is my reason for holding the pattern we have now:



See the green line? That green line will need to be broken to the upside tomorrow and this market is grossly over-sold today, BBRY could gap up tomorrow at the open and rally right back to the upper blue resistance line. That's how volatile this stock is going to be as we head for June 28th. The bears aren't going to like the snap-back if we hold here and gap up tomorrow. So much for the sell-off.

I see us gapping above that steep downtrend line in green. GL

Morgan - can you really see such a gap up on OPEX Friday? I can see it limited to 14.25 tomorrow with resistance as that green downtrend line then a huge gap up Monday which will also set the pace into the ER.

I like your theory better...... but too many times these guys bring it down with NO NEWS on OPEX Friday.

[sidhuk]

No Matter how good the blackberry numbers are, it is all in the hands of MM,HF and institutions. Retail investors and their sentiments dont mean a thing at this point IMO. you can read the graphs any way and shape you like and make predictions to buy your dream. this stock does not have the blessings of market vultures. in the end, blackberry really has to perform not just predictions. so if you believe in your research and carefully Liston to the CEO of the blackberry then stick around and watch the fire works. otherwise, the rest is all noise. If you are a trader and not investor then short term noise do matters I guess.

[psy fi]

Yes, I see what you are saying. We need to break out of the short term trend green line.

Okay, just because you are so hopeful of a bounce today, here is my reason for holding the pattern we have now:



See the green line? That green line will need to be broken to the upside tomorrow and this market is grossly over-sold today, BBRY could gap up tomorrow at the open and rally right back to the upper blue resistance line. That's how volatile this stock is going to be as we head for June 28th. The bears aren't going to like the snap-back if we hold here and gap up tomorrow. So much for the sell-off.

I see us gapping above that steep downtrend line in green. GL

[cjcampbell]

Morgan - can you really see such a gap up on OPEX Friday? I can see it limited to 14.25 tomorrow with resistance as that green downtrend line then a huge gap up Monday which will also set the pace into the ER.

I like your theory better...... but too many times these guys bring it down with NO NEWS on OPEX Friday.

Now of course Morgan knows better but I'll add my two cents..... if we stay red today, and in the general area in which we are in, that will form a hollow red candle. This is bullish, and if you look back, each time this has happened, we've had a gap up. Maybe someone can point out if I am wrong but this is what I see.

[spiller]

Now of course Morgan knows better but I'll add my two cents..... if we stay red today, and in the general area in which we are in, that will form a hollow red candle. This is bullish, and if you look back, each time this has happened, we've had a gap up. Maybe someone can point out if I am wrong but this is what I see.

I don't doubt the TA. I just think the interference run by the bears wanting to cash in on their premiums will hold it down...at least under 14.50.

[sparkaction]

I predict we will end the week at $14 for bbry based on OPEX.

[take99]

Next 'warren buffett' has bbry in his top 3

Finding The Next Warren Buffett: Mike Koza - Forbes

[cjcampbell]

I don't doubt the TA. I just think the interference run by the bears wanting to cash in on their premiums will hold it down...at least under 14.50.

Kinda like what just happened? lol OUCH.... darn cork soakers!!!

[m0de25]

Long BBRY/BB

[tiziano27]

Ok let's say 50% of 75M subs = 37.5 subs. Ammortized loss over 24 month upgrade cycle = 37.5 / 12 * 3 (months/q) = 4.7M lost BB7 subs IF 100% of those users move to Android. Let's say 50% stay and either upgrade to new BB7 as they love their cheap data plan packages, or they are waiting patiently for Q5 mid end or end of year low end.

Would mean 2.35M lost BB7 subs.

If we gain 2M BB10 users (out of 4.5M BB10 sales), and round up to the million, we could stay even.

The assumption of a gradual migration to android because of contracts is too strong, I don't have knowledge to confirm or reject.

[bungaboy]

Wow, uncapped data... must be nice.

MTN BlackBerry goes uncapped again

Only NOT in Canada you say . . . . . Pity! LoL

[Superfly_FR]

Could a Bull fire something for a minute I can grab my CAN$14 100+ shares please ?
lol ... but I'm flawed with these analysts ... really thought I'll get it today.
P.S: CAN$ 14 is just a few cents bellow my avg

CU later guys (but not until 2AM tonight !)

[spiller]

The assumption of a gradual migration to android because of contracts is too strong, I don't have knowledge to confirm or reject.

not contracts. most emerging markets are probably non contract. but let's assume like most of the world people will only buy a new phone outright every 2 years.

[morganplus8]

Morgan - can you really see such a gap up on OPEX Friday? I can see it limited to 14.25 tomorrow with resistance as that green downtrend line then a huge gap up Monday which will also set the pace into the ER.

I like your theory better...... but too many times these guys bring it down with NO NEWS on OPEX Friday.

I place very little weight on OPEX this Friday. It is 50/50% as to whether they want calls/puts to be taking the stock up here. Many on this board think they have to undercut the round price levels ($ 14.00/shr) all the time, but I disagree, June 28th is the focus and this trade can turn bullish very quickly here. Of course the stock has to confirm the TA for a rally or its a "no go" for Friday, we still need to close above the $ 14.00/shr mark for me to feel good about a breakout here. The general market is now over-sold which can help us achieve a breakout despite OPEX. Just my personal take on tomorrows trade.