[silversun10]

But who is paying AMEX, the carrier or BlackBerry?

the customer, credit card companies charge fat fees

[BlackistheBerry]

oh I didn't realize you could buy the phones directly from BBRY. The carriers set the prices for the phones. I hope they discount it to $0 bc BBRY will still be getting the same $ for them.

In many countries, India included, phones are not sold through carriers. They are bought outright by customers, unlocked.
(that's the reason they complain about the phones being priced too high too)
You can choose to use them with the carrier of your choice.

But calling a gift card offer a "price-slash" doesn't sound too right to me!

[morganplus8]

And now for some perfect TA:



Perfect in the sense that we had a "normal day" yesterday, a pull-back to the centerline of the Bollinger Bands and a nice close above the lows setting us up for a move up today. The Bands are showing us that support yesterday could be found at the centerline which is $ 14.14/shr, our low was $ 14.18/shr (the actual 5-ema was $ 14.17/shr) so that was a nice pull-back without even testing support. The potential high on no news is $ 14.98/shr or the upper band. This is the goal in the very short-term only.

Today's chart:


Today we have the 200-ema as our extreme support level, we are just below the 50-ema at $ 14.39/shr, and, we have the 5-ema rising toward the 50-ema to confirm the breakout to higher levels. A close above $ 14.39/shr today sets up the 5-ema to cross through the 50-ema and this will take us to the $ 15.00 mark quickly. I mentioned yesterday that the Bollinger Bands are about to become narrower in the next couple of days and they don't stay that way for long so expect some hyper moves in the days that follow.

In Other News:
Charles, get back to the board, you have at least 70 fantastic members on this thread and one bad incident. If this were BBRY and we had 70 Strong Buys and One Sell, you would be all over this thread. I know, poor analogy, but .......................... come back .... we are a team here.

[morganplus8]

In many countries, India included, phones are not sold through carriers. They are bought outright by customers, unlocked.
(that's the reason they complain about the phones being priced too high too)
You can choose to use them with the carrier of your choice.

But calling a gift card offer a "price-slash" doesn't sound too right to me!

He mentions in that article that Apple is offering a 36% discount and we all know they are offering a monthly payment plan to own the phone over several years. Why is it that BlackBerry is cratering on price when "Apple" has collapsed on price? Relatively speaking BB is rocking it compared to Apple.

[kfh227]

Seems like a lot if channel checks are at the consensus estimate of 3-4 million units. Only one I can think of said 5+ million.

Point being that I worry that this will not be a blow out quarter. And at 16 million bb10 phones a year, bbry could be toast.

Posted via CB10

[InWithTheNew]

And you think the law firm wasn't harder on any non-announcement clause...

I am sure there is no bar to announcing it. The info was out there anyway, it should have been more of an effort from BBRY PR.

Quiet period right now. You can't come out with that right now. Will have to wait until ER for news.


Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

Seems like a lot if channel checks are at the consensus estimate of 3-4 million units. Only one I can think of said 5+ million.

Point being that I worry that this will not be a blow out quarter. And at 16 million bb10 phones a year, bbry could be toast.

Posted via CB10

Even if those are the numbers for this Q, the Q5 is still not for sale and there are many MANY countries yet to get any BB10 units. Still lots to roll out and tons of growth to happen yet.

[junelises]

Spent some time yesterday looking at statscounter which looks at Web traffic. Bbry is trending up in some markets. Canada about 30%. UK about 15%. South Africa about 40%. One assumption I made when I invested in bbry, is that they would get a 5% market share in the USA. 3% I thought would be the floor. Statscounter shows bbry barely budging at somewhere south of 5% in the USA. The analyst are predicting 3-5 million bb10 this QE. I thought 5 million is on the low side, but it actually might be close, as I think bbry is having a hard time in the states. My guess is their market share is 1-2% in the states. This is the best explanation I can find as to why the stock has not gone up to 20+ and why the shorts keep on increasing. I think canada which is 1/10 the size of the states might be selling more bb phones. Lol now that can be looked at as a a half glass full or half glass empty situation. What's your guess on USA market share since z10 launch? With the q10, a10, bes, 10.1/10.2 update what do you think it will be for the rest of the year in the USA?

[kfh227]

Statcounter doesn't seem very reliable. No way Canada is 30%.

How does Statcounter come up with this information? How is it normalized? If not normalized, how does one normalize it? Does one need historical data to normalize via trailing average?

See where I'm going with this?

Read up on confirmation bias at wikipedia.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Good morning all. There's not a lot to say while BB is in their quiet period before ER, so basically we sit and wait. Please don't let the negative analyst posts get to you as the bears try their best to control the SP. We're almost there, so hang on and try to see all the positive aspects of our investment here. Get a good cup of coffee or juice and let's get this going!

[kfh227]

G' DAMN it. Where s the first trade post?

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

Bbry provably has less than 1% market share in the USA. That's bb10 only. And I doubt that it is over 0.25%

Not sure what business adoption is like.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

RBC boosts outlook on BlackBerry 10, sees RIM back in black this year - The Globe and Mail

[cjcampbell]

Spent some time yesterday looking at statscounter which looks at Web traffic. Bbry is trending up in some markets. Canada about 30%. UK about 15%. South Africa about 40%. One assumption I made when I invested in bbry, is that they would get a 5% market share in the USA. 3% I thought would be the floor. Statscounter shows bbry barely budging at somewhere south of 5% in the USA. The analyst are predicting 3-5 million bb10 this QE. I thought 5 million is on the low side, but it actually might be close, as I think bbry is having a hard time in the states. My guess is their market share is 1-2% in the states. This is the best explanation I can find as to why the stock has not gone up to 20+ and why the shorts keep on increasing. I think canada which is 1/10 the size of the states might be selling more bb phones. Lol now that can be looked at as a a half glass full or half glass empty situation. What's your guess on USA market share since z10 launch? With the q10, a10, bes, 10.1/10.2 update what do you think it will be for the rest of the year in the USA?

With statscounter, you need to understand that it's just web browsing. A lot of the BB customers are not consumers of media and in the US, the population is so large, that a little uptick wouldn't really show. For example, if I add a cup of water to my mop bucket, you will see a measurable rise in the water level. If I add the same cup to my bathtub, it would be almost non existent. Also, think of all the BB's that have the browser disabled due to the corporate policy.

I'm not saying that we will, or will not, beat those or come under those numbers, but to base your research on one metric, that if were very accurate you'd see analysts for both sides using it for respective markets, would be a mistake. It is one of many information sources to look at then combine. In the US, it may take a while to catch on but the US consumer is not the be all/end all for BB..... Enterprise is still very strong there and will not show in many checks using many metrics.

[junelises]

I would say statscounter can't be used to as an accurate measure of market share. But I think it can be used to predict a trend and strength in a market. Positive in UK, canada, South Africa. When the z10 launched in the states a whole bunch of negativity came out as we saw first hand on this site. Statscounter confirmed that bbry still has a weak hand in the states courtesy of the carriers and others. The stock movement confirms it. Fortunately, I think it will beat good qe due to the strength of other markets, but it won't be a homerun. I think market share in Canada might be about 20%. And yes I think it could go to 30% by the end of the year. I see bb7 and bb10 all over the place. Just flew from Toronto to Washington, and the lady beside me had a z10. Btw, there was bbry booth at the airport. Rep was talking to a stewardess.

[lcjr]

RBC boosts outlook on BlackBerry 10, sees RIM back in black this year - The Globe and Mail

Oh man, you know it's early when you look at that link and think about reading something regarding MS Outlook. lol. Great article. I need stronger coffee.

[bungaboy]

CM1 hopefully is sleeping off a giant hangover and will be back shortly?

I hope so!

[junelises]

With statscounter, you need to understand that it's just web browsing. A lot of the BB customers are not consumers of media and in the US, the population is so large, that a little uptick wouldn't really show. For example, if I add a cup of water to my mop bucket, you will see a measurable rise in the water level. If I add the same cup to my bathtub, it would be almost non existent. Also, think of all the BB's that have the browser disabled due to the corporate policy.

I'm not saying that we will, or will not, beat those or come under those numbers, but to base your research on one metric, that if were very accurate you'd see analysts for both sides using it for respective markets, would be a mistake. It is one of many information sources to look at then combine. In the US, it may take a while to catch on but the US consumer is not the be all/end all for BB..... Enterprise is still very strong there and will not show in many checks using many metrics.

Well enterprise will be a nonfactor in the states this QE as there was no Q10 and bes. So for this QE it's really about the z10 and consumers when referring to the States.

[cjcampbell]

Well enterprise will be a nonfactor in the states this QE as there was no Q10 and bes. So for this QE it's really about the z10 and consumers when referring to the States.

There were a couple of weeks of enterprise sales in the US. Also, with BES10 being in testing for a while now, and 60% of fortune 500 companies doing so (and recent reports of full on adoptions by some but can't recall if that was before or after the end of the quarter), there maybe a fair number of CAL's and new device sales to accompany that. Since BES10 won't manage legacy BB's, it's fair to assume at least nominal sales in that market.

[BThunderW]

Bam! Hit the SMA-50 like a fly hitting a windshield

[psy fi]

She's taken off!!

[tygros]

I've been offline for about a week now - silent, head buried in that job search still - and I come back to see Charles abandoning ship 10 days before lift-off? Wow... Who's responsible for this negativity of late?

[greggebhardt]

Bam! Hit the SMA-50 like a fly hitting a windshield

What was that giant spike on the chart!

[Tinomane]

What was that giant spike on the chart!

Somebody knows something

[BThunderW]

Takeover rumors again.

What was that giant spike on the chart!