[lcjr]

What's odd is the date on the article, as stated by Robinson, is for May 17th. Did CIO re-release it today? If so, you'd think they'd be bright enough to adjust the date on it..... haha.

Exactly. I expect negative articles and negative spins to come out these next two weeks, but I really don't want any of us to fall for this misleading information. I mean for petes sake, how can somebody actually expect to be able to use those devices like their personal ones. Can you imagine a unit out on a secret mission and they get blasted out of the water because one of the members turned on their device and the GPS kicks in?? Can you imagine our forces being tracked by satellite as they sneak up on their adversary because the wifi and standard software invites this?

Like I said earlier, we'll have to share space with the DoD and other government agencies. This being said, I do think once all the particulars of use come out, folks will stop asking for the purchase of these devices and stick to Blackberry. They are not going to get what they've been asking for, but rather the same server restrictions and availabilities as all the other government devices, just in a different shape or color.

[cjcampbell]

Good point. But wouldn't some folks hold their position even at $6 because they don't want to recognize the gain on their taxes? Wouldn't that have been a good reason to hold through the end of last year?

Seeing as the last time the SP was at 50 was in 2011, I wouldn't bet on it, but then again, people do some odd things.

[morganplus8]

I did some digging around after reading the latest SeekingAlpha Article -

BlackBerry: A Successful Turnaround? - Seeking Alpha

If you look at the chart in this article, you will see a trend line that follows the lows of the stock perfectly. I couldn't help but notice how well it does track the lows for BBRY. So I made up my own chart using the same indicator and here is what you get when you map BBRY over its EMA indicators:



Definition:
Exponential Moving Average Calculation
Exponential moving averages reduce the lag by applying more weight to recent prices. The weighting applied to the most recent price depends on the number of periods in the moving average.

When we look at this chart, the EMA is weighted more toward the latest trading data making the indicator more volatile, but at the same time, it shows us incredible support for the stock on the 200-EMA. If you follow that 200-ema line, it represents 100% support for the stock going back to the first monster sell-off in the stock in late January. You simply can't ignore the power of the support at this level. Now, this chart shows us the 50-ema for the period, and today, we are nicely above it having breached the 50-ema last Thursday! We have held above the 50-ema so far and look to be far more bullish than the dma would suggest. So clearly, major funds are following the EMA for TA levels and we should too.

Here is the next chart showing my 5-ema and the 200-ema:


With the more aggressive 5-ema, we are finding that support is slightly higher at the moment around $ 14.22/sht. The chart looks very bullish today when you see that we are staying above the 5-ema, and, on or above the 50-ema at $ 14.40/shr. The stock is tracking the 5-ema as well as the 5-dma and is still the indicator of choice to know if we should be long the stock or not.

Finally, when we map the green channel to this new dataset we get this chart:


Please note that we can no longer see our 200-ema because our support line is on top of it!! What better way to confirm all of the work we have done than to find a major indicator that is tracking what we have been guessing was support all along! This is great news as it shows us where major support is. If we use the lower line as support, we will also use the upper line as resistance for this move. Based upon this chart, we would like to see the stock hold its 50-ema at $ 14.40 today, and move up from there to our resistance line in the mid $ 15.50's.

I would encourage our TA people to follow the 200-ema for support and to consider the 50-ema as a secondary indicator for trend changes. The 5-dma or 5-ema are working well as indicators for a continuation indicator. Sometimes it takes another chartist to point out that using simple TA is not where you want to end up focusing your time, the board needs to move onto other possibilities here and a change to the more volatile EMA is needed today.

[mrfreetruth]

M+8 thanks so much for your teachings.

[take99]

June 17, 2013, 11:32 A.M. ET
.
Apple, Samsung Maintain U.S. Phone Lead, Says Baird; HTC Third, BBRY �Modest�
.
By Tiernan Ray

R.W. Baird�s William Power returns with his regular weekly check of top-selling smartphones in the U.S. Power writes that his conversations with stores of the four largest wireless carriers in the U.S. last week revealed Apple�s (AAPL) iPhone and Samsung Electronics�s (005930KS) Galaxy S4 were still the top-selling phones based on store reps with whom Power spoke.

HTC�s (2498TW) �HTC One� flagship phone was a popular third place, writes Power, and several other models were proposed in certain cases:

At AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile the HTC One continues to be noted frequently as the third-best-selling device behind the iPhone and S4. At Verizon, the Motorola RAZR HD and other RAZR models are frequently highlighted as alternative options to the iPhone 5 and S4. The Samsung Note II, LG Optimus G, and LG Nexus 4 also received honorable mentions from several reps we spoke with.

Power opines sales have been �modest� for the recently introduced BlackBerry (BBRY) Q10, but that�s as regards consumers, with perhaps more product going direct to business customers:

The BlackBerry Q10 launched at Verizon last Monday and the results were very similar to what we saw at T-Mobile and AT&T two weeks ago. The device is popular among die-hard fans and enterprise users, though the vast majority of stores we contacted did not sell out of the product on launch day and most reps indicated that sales were modest. As we noted last week, our checks reflect only the consumer channel and we expect that many Q10 sales are going through the B2B channel.

[silversun10]

June 17, 2013, 11:32 A.M. ET
.
Apple, Samsung Maintain U.S. Phone Lead, Says Baird; HTC Third, BBRY ‘Modest’
.
By Tiernan Ray

R.W. Baird’s William Power returns with his regular weekly check of top-selling smartphones in the U.S. Power writes that his conversations with stores of the four largest wireless carriers in the U.S. last week revealed Apple‘s (AAPL) iPhone and Samsung Electronics‘s (005930KS) Galaxy S4 were still the top-selling phones based on store reps with whom Power spoke.

HTC‘s (2498TW) “HTC One” flagship phone was a popular third place, writes Power, and several other models were proposed in certain cases:

At AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile the HTC One continues to be noted frequently as the third-best-selling device behind the iPhone and S4. At Verizon, the Motorola RAZR HD and other RAZR models are frequently highlighted as alternative options to the iPhone 5 and S4. The Samsung Note II, LG Optimus G, and LG Nexus 4 also received honorable mentions from several reps we spoke with.

Power opines sales have been “modest” for the recently introduced BlackBerry (BBRY) Q10, but that’s as regards consumers, with perhaps more product going direct to business customers:

The BlackBerry Q10 launched at Verizon last Monday and the results were very similar to what we saw at T-Mobile and AT&T two weeks ago. The device is popular among die-hard fans and enterprise users, though the vast majority of stores we contacted did not sell out of the product on launch day and most reps indicated that sales were modest. As we noted last week, our checks reflect only the consumer channel and we expect that many Q10 sales are going through the B2B channel.

Blackberry sales were always going to be modest, the sales before the launch were zero, so modest is definitely progress

[La Emperor]

haha... ya I just read that one. Price target of $8 but it will be a good quarter to beat estimates. The more time that goes by, the more I'm becoming desensitized to the writings of these analysts..... both bear and bull side.

I'm with you but you got to question the motivation of this fellow from Deutsche Bank. Other analysts have now changed their views and have started to believe the turnaround of BB. Yet this guy seems to be blind or he knows something we don't. Now he's predicting a not so bright future for BB especially in the emerging market because of the under powered Q5. Yet he admits that BB10 devices have been remarkably accepted and has done well in a few geographies that could help surprise a strong earnings report.

So my take is he is saying it can be a blowout quarter, but hopes the SP does not skyrocket, using the poor excuse of Q5 app development challenge and build of materials cost, etc.etc. Now, you start to question how deep they in the red they will be if the ER is extremely positive. Wonder how much sleep they get every time a positive news comes out of BB.

I am no banking expert but I run across this news article below the other day and this could be the motivation of this fellow from DB. Multiple articles out there but chose this one because it seems to have more meat on it.

A snippet from the article...and if someone could explain this further or could provide additional info, it would be much appreciated.

A top U.S. banking regulator called Deutsche Bank's capital levels "horrible" and said it is the worst on a list of global banks based on one measurement of leverage ratios. "It's horrible, I mean they're horribly undercapitalized," said Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig in an interview. "They have no margin of error." Deutsche's leverage ratio stood at 1.63 percent, according to Hoenig's numbers, which are based on European IFRS accounting rules as of the end of 2012.

Deutsche Bank "Is Horribly Undercapitalized... It's Ridiculous" Says Former Fed President Hoenig | Zero Hedge

[take99]

While I don't agree with his outlook overall, I don't think he said the q5 is underpowered, it has a dual core processor which makes it more expensive. He is saying that BB10 needs at least a dual core to run efficiently and that this inflates the price of an entry level handset.

[La Emperor]

While I don't agree with his outlook overall, I don't think he said the q5 is underpowered, it has a dual core processor which makes it more expensive. He is saying that BB10 needs at least a dual core to run efficiently and that this inflates the price of an entry level handset.

Thanks Take99. Will make the correction. Got mixed up on my thoughts

[cjcampbell]

While I don't agree with his outlook overall, I don't think he said the q5 is underpowered, it has a dual core processor which makes it more expensive. He is saying that BB10 needs at least a dual core to run efficiently and that this inflates the price of an entry level handset.

I was just going to say that. He was saying that it will be too expensive to be an entry level device. He also tried to use the screen size as a hindrance yet the Q10 isn't mentioned in this fact. He seems to be all over the place and scrambling to get any sort of traction.

Posted via CB10

[fedakd]

Morgan, you and your charts are awesome. No other words for it. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and making everyone here better investors and traders!

[La Emperor]

I was just going to say that. He was saying that it will be too expensive to be an entry level device. He also tried to use the screen size as a hindrance yet the Q10 isn't mentioned in this fact. He seems to be all over the place and scrambling to get any sort of traction.

Posted via CB10

I know, the Q10 and Q5 are of the same screen size isn't it? Haven't seen the official specs but read it from a post somewhere. So if the app works on Q10, then the Q5 should be able to handle it as well. Also with the advent of octo cores and popularity of quad cores, dual cores should be a lot cheaper by the dozen.

[Bugmapper]

RIM Plays Defense as Snowden Leaks Engulf BlackBerry - Canada Real Time - WSJ

“We remain 100 percent confident in the superiority of BlackBerry mobile security for clients using our integrated device and enterprise server technology,” a RIM spokesman said in a statement. “Our public statements and principles have long underscored that there is no ‘back door’ to secure BlackBerry Enterprise Solutions.” It declined to comment further on the Guardian report.

[morganplus8]

Just want to add a few things to this. In previous quarters, BlackBerry was generating close to $1B in service revenue. It declined marginally last quarter, however, we should still see service revenues come in around $900M. 600M is way to low!!!

Keep in mind that in each of the four quarters in FY2013, BlackBerry sold through more phones than it sold into the channel. Channel inventory is effectively nil. Pair this with the fact that BlackBerry was building phones as early as December, and you have a recipe for a lot of phones to be sold into the channel for Q1. I can see 5M BB10s, of which comprise 3M Z10 and 2M Q10; and, 3M BB7 being a very real possibility.

A quick revenue breakdown (being very conservative with ASPs!!)

5M x 450 ASP = $2.25b
3M x 200 ASP = $0.6b
Service Rev = 0.9b

Total revenues: 3.75b

In my opinion, revenues of 3.7b is entirely possible this quarter. If BB10 ASPs are $500, revenues would top $4 billion!!! Even with a 50% increase in the marketing expense line item, we could still see EPS for this quarter easily over $0.50.

You need to start posting more often my friend! I read this yesterday and thought you are right on target here. It doesn't take much to make Heins look conservative in his modest guidance. I liked all of these numbers and the point you made about sell-through versus sold phones. Inventory has dropped to zero for BBRY concerning BB7 products, they must be selling their top BB7 units now. Show up more often!

[morlock_man]

RIM Plays Defense as Snowden Leaks Engulf BlackBerry - Canada Real Time - WSJ

“We remain 100 percent confident in the superiority of BlackBerry mobile security for clients using our integrated device and enterprise server technology,” a RIM spokesman said in a statement. “Our public statements and principles have long underscored that there is no ‘back door’ to secure BlackBerry Enterprise Solutions.” It declined to comment further on the Guardian report.

Basically, demo the hack or it didn't happen. Nice stance for BBRY to take on the issue.

11 days!

[Bugmapper]

Basically, demo the hack or it didn't happen. Nice stance for BBRY to take on the issue.

11 days!

Sooo... if the U.K. government has attempted (or succeeded) to hack BlackBerry systems to gain competitive advantage at negotiations AND NOT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY can we, as shareholders, sue the U.K. government for attempting to breach our systems and damaging our reputation???

[Shanerredflag]

Morgan, you and your charts are awesome. No other words for it. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and making everyone here better investors and traders!

Yes sir...M8 is generous beyond belief, this thread rocks!

[lcjr]

“BlackBerry A10 Phablet to be Announced Soon after BB Z10 Success”

This my friends is what I’m now holding out for. It’s only speculation right now, but this is what I would love to see.
I doubt anything will be leaked or commented from BB until after the September ER because they need that news and numbers come December. When this information is confirmed, the SP will really take off.

BlackBerry A10 Phablet to be Announced Soon after BB Z10 SuccessStates Chronicle

[Charles Martin1]

Well, this crud didn't do anything. I guess the shorts are in big trouble now!

[take99]

BlackBerry And Nokia - Surprising Signs Of App Traction? - Forbes

[cjcampbell]

Sooo... if the U.K. government has attempted (or succeeded) to hack BlackBerry systems to gain competitive advantage at negotiations AND NOT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY can we, as shareholders, sue the U.K. government for attempting to breach our systems and damaging our reputation???

What we don't know is if the devices that were allegedly snooped on were managed by BES. It's the combination that does the trick.

[Blaisep]

This software publisher's data supports SocGen's estimate of 5M BB10 sales for Q1:

Predicting BlackBerry�s Q1 sales

I think there is also the possibility that Q1 sales may include the initial channel fill for the TMo and Verizon launches given quarter-end was on Jun 1 and US retailer stores had stock to sell on Jun 5/6. Of course then you'd have to back out the amount of the 1 million Z10's "sold" Q4 which didn't actually sell through until the current quarter. In any case, I am comfortable with using 5 to 5.25M as a Q1 sales estimate as that also jives with Peter Misek's monthly build figures from his supplier checks.

Inventory / Total Sales
Taking those estimates into account, I get a Q1 ending inventory balance of less than a 1 million finished BB10 units. Even assuming increase WIP for Q5 units, I don't think total inventory should increase by more than $200M unless BB7 sales really hit the wall (which should support a significant increase in cash position despite increased marketing spend). At least the Pixelated download data shows that BBOS7 continued to increase in adoption rates for the first two months of the quarter so I think 3 to 3.5 million BB7 unit sales during the quarter is probably justifiable and still represents a 30-40% decline from Q4.

Total estimate for Q1 unit sales = 8 to 8.75M units
My current EPS estimate based on mid-range 8.4M units = $0.60 /share
(I've increased my estimate for amortization expense since the prior estimate)

The downside case would be a Playbook type situation where BB7 sales really did hit the wall globally and management didn't recognize early enough so they are left with several million BB7 units/parts in finished goods/WIP that need to be written down (certainly possible but let's hope not).

I am long BBRY.

[morlock_man]

Sooo... if the U.K. government has attempted (or succeeded) to hack BlackBerry systems to gain competitive advantage at negotiations AND NOT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY can we, as shareholders, sue the U.K. government for attempting to breach our systems and damaging our reputation???

1. It's 'leaked data' with no real details on the hack.
2. If it was done in 2009, its all about vunerabilities in the old platform, not the new one.
3. They could have just offered delegates a conference app that was using an early Blackberry variation of the Zeus malware. That would give them keylogging and form grabbing.
4. Intercepting phone calls is all about the local phone carrier, nothing to do with BBRY.

So all of this could have been accomplished just by offering delegates a malicious app prior to the summit.

Nothing about this leak says anything bad about BBRY. Right now it's all just spin.

[greggebhardt]

What we don't know is if the devices that were allegedly snooped on were managed by BES. It's the combination that does the trick.

I am betting that nothing is really secure. If needed I bet BES can be hacked!

[AngryEdmontonian]

I am betting that nothing is really secure. If needed I bet BES can be hacked!

BB_Trader?