[La Emperor]

Hey LC,

Happy Birthday sir.

[Shanerredflag]

Cha ching....that is all

Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

This year Washington is expecting a good salmon run and the Fraser (Canada) river is also. PM me if you happen to be around Seattle this summer. HAPPY HAPPY BDAY

Look at my avatar. I love flyfishing and will go freshwater or saltwater. Another reason to move to Colorado!

[jon_stark_28]

My manager just got her Z10 ... the pilot upgrade program is kicking into high gear at my company! We were all looking at it during lunch with some excitement and curiousity. One ofmy fellow workers said her dad just got his Q10 2 days ago .... BBRY is here. Its exciting in a nerdy way ... but then I am a bit of a nerd.

[Blaisep]

Been doing some reverse engineering on the numbers based on gs stat as well, and have come up with these results below. Not too far off from this guys estimates, but slightly better.

Here's what I came up with.
Z10 - 5.5 M
Q10- 1.0 M
Legacy - 3.5 M

Loss of subs: 2M ( down to 74M from 76M ) - with the Q5 quickly in the horizon, I believe people who are contemplating to move to another platform will just wait it out since they've waited long enough. What's a couple of months for them. The bleeding has to slow down and if it does, the squeeze will be on its way. Remember, the decrease in subs is the remaining lifeline the shorts have.

# warning: a number of assumptions were made on these calculations.

I arrived at somewhat similar figures but assume subs stay relatively constant at 76M. Your model assumes sales of 10M units still leads to a subs loss of 2M implying 12M "disconnects" of old devices. Based on BBRY's published sales/subs figures, the three highest quarterly "disconnects" figures (=current subs-prior quarter subs-current quarter sales) have been roughly 9.4M in Q4 '11, 9.2M in Q4 '10 and 9M last quarter. While certainly they could have blown out to 12M, I'm hoping they stayed flat around 9M with the same reasoning as you that people who have waited so long already will wait it out, or are enterprise customers waiting for IT to deploy the new models.

Anyways, thanks for sharing your insights. Will be an interesting couple of weeks ahead.

[psy fi]

Happy Birthday lcjr!

[jon_stark_28]

It's starting to feel as though the hour of the wolf will soon be upon us ... time for the Starks (aka BBRY) to take their revenge!

[leafs123]

It's starting to feel as though the hour of the wolf will soon be upon us ... time for the Starks (aka BBRY) to take their revenge!

We will never forget what the shorts have done when we squeeze em out.

[jon_stark_28]

Now what ever happened to the alt2 thing? I emailed a complaint to cnbc ... we'll see if they get back.

[kfh227]

I actually don't think a BIG short squeeze will hit until the subscriber numbers go up

Never going to happen.

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

Well what do ya know.... we seem to be making a mid afternoon push

[Charles Martin1]

Happy birthday Lcjr!

[MrBurns2U]

For me, building a nice floor around $14.20's is a good thing of late.

We spent long enough in the $13-15 range. Built enough floors to take a peak @ Australia! Do we really need to stick around?

[Bugmapper]

FWIW... I see that the Z10 and Q10 are now visible to Canadian Government employees for ordering, but are "not available" until further notice. Presumably they are getting ready to make them available any day now, but the BES system is not quite ready yet.

Edit.... or they sold so freakin' many of them in the US, that they can't supply the Canadian market.

[Charles Martin1]

Well, it looks like the crud from short dogs finally has a pretty weak impact on the SP. Let's hope it stays that way.

[leafs123]

HOD, it wants more!

[rebekahlynnharrison]

We spent long enough in the $13-15 range. Built enough floors to take a peak @ Australia! Do we really need to stick around?

lol, I kwim. Nothing I'd like better either. Looks like we are steadily on the rise.
Positive reports+analyst rating buy=great SP synergy

[q649]

14.46 +0.90 (6.64%)
Real-time: 2:09PM EDT

If we could close above $14.50...
I'd be so happy.

[koolrosh]

Wee hee! We moving up again!

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

Here is BB Coffee Machine. some one just tweeted. LoL

[leafs123]

Wow, great marketing in Hong Kong. Busiest metro station there apparently.

[cjcampbell]

14.46 +0.90 (6.64%)
Real-time: 2:09PM EDT

If we could close above $14.50...
I'd be so happy.

50-dma is $15.55 so would love to test that today. Didn't think it was gonna happen but if a little momentum gets generated here, it just might be possible.

[kellyweng88]

^^^^damnn, thats a darn good advertisement!
they need stuff like that here in the US. would be sure to catch some eyes

[Shanerredflag]

Thanks Fortyniner!! I have two girls but your thoughts are appreciated. Yep, it will be really cool to see their faces light up when I hand them that much cash and they get to buy their own houses with a nice down payment. That's all I need out of this. I'm a simple guy.

Happy B DAY sir....welcome to the old farts club

Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

$14.48 and counting there is a good chance it test the 50-dma

50-dma is $15.55 so would love to test that today. Didn't think it was gonna happen but if a little momentum gets generated here, it just might be possible.