[bungaboy]

Hey, it's brightening the mood on the thread and is like a breath of fresh air for a change. I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

Right on! Thanks for your positive attitude. It helps. :-)

[potatoman3]

For sure. Great to have some great news too. I'm really hoping we get a profit warning tomorrow.

If we do, I hope it's in the morning so we can ride into the weekend on a high note!

[Charles Martin1]

BlackBerry Planning On Adding Sponsored Invites to BBM Channels - BerryReview

[JLagoon]

Hi Morgan; glad to have you back!

So, the pattern from the last 2 cycles did repeat. Let us hope, that this current cycle is a new one. If it is not a new one, then it would undo the modest rally today.

60 minute chart. One way or another, the stoch RSI has to go down to do a cycle.


Daily chart. The good news here is the MACD is starting to cross upward. The short term questions for those, who wants to go through the up and down of selling, and buying again is: what is the price point to sell at its next peak? If you do sell it, then will you be able to buy at the same price point that you did or lower? Even if this stock reaches $20; is that a good price point to sell considering how much it has gone up?

[spiller]

If the Soc Gen figures prove to be anywhere near accurate then this could be a huge blowout quarter for them.

Current consensus estimates for Q1 are: GAAP EPS of $0.08 and Adjusted of $0.06 on sales of $3.37B.

If I update my own model using Soc Gen's BB10 figures and use my estimate of 3.5M BB7 sales (down 30% serially from Q4), along with service/BES10/QNX/other revenue of $900M, and a 60% increase in ad spend, I come out with some pretty crazy figures:

BlaiseP's Proprietary Estimates
EPS: $0.82
Adj EPS: $0.79
Sales: $4.1B
Earnings from ops: $630M or $1.20 /share

Will have to wait until Jun 28 for confirmation but if analysts believed that these sales were sustainable and not channel stuffing then price targets could easily be doubled/tripled in many cases.

How is that crazy? I've been estimating $0.80 with my proprietary model

[spiller]

Touche... But I say, let it fade. A precedent has been set - with just one analyst. The money won't be made on ER day - it'll be made the following week - because that's when many analysts will raise estimates if we're truly over 10M total units (legacy incl) for the Q. Would be HUGE.

10M is too high. After the last production ramp up reports were that if BB stays at current production levels BluFin was estimating 32-40M units IIRC. I would take the low end 32M and call this quarter 8M. Initially I was at 4M BB10 + 4M BB7....but it would be even better (for rev, GM, EPS) if those numbers were 5M BB10 and 3M BB7!!

[Bugmapper]

Brinell or Rockwell? :-)

LOL. Your choice.

[Dapper37]

Enjoy the rest of the day friends. Don't worry to much about the SP today or tomorrow. In the big picture it won't matter at all. Oh and....


Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

It looks like the short dog bullsh!tters still have some bite and put a cap on our climb. Cork soakers...

[Charles Martin1]

Enjoy the rest of the day friends. Don't worry to much about the SP today or tomorrow. In the big picture it won't matter at all. Oh and....Posted via CB10

Lol...cool.

[llcool]

All I'm saying is don't get excited until the close and don't celebrate until we rally past $18

I agree with your wisdom.

[Mange Schillis]

Detwiler Fenton currently writing on a report saying that sales of 5 million BB10 is actually negative since that means returns could be as high as 6-7 million.

[lcjr]

It looks like the short dog bullsh!tters still have some bite and put a cap on our climb. Cork soakers...

I still see a sea of green and after reading several articles and knowing what I now have verified on my end, I see many of you guys becoming more than millionairs in the near future. Just don't forget us little people when you're sitting on your newly purchased secluded islands.

[cjcampbell]

I still see a sea of green and after reading several articles and knowing what I now have verified on my end, I see many of you guys becoming more than millionairs in the near future. Just don't forget us little people when you're sitting on your newly purchased secluded islands.

I couldn't be in your position. I can keep a secret but this would just kill me to know and not be able to share...lol.

[mikev85]

Not sure if anyone has brought this up yet but what happened to the ATL 12, can't find it anywhere anymore, kinda weird

[lcjr]

I couldn't be in your position. I can keep a secret but this would just kill me to know and not be able to share...lol.

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.

[cjcampbell]

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.

Well HAPPY BIRTHDAY LC!!!!

[plasmid_boy]

I couldn't be in your position. I can keep a secret but this would just kill me to know and not be able to share...lol.

Try some mind reading tricks, this is what I see.
1. DoD will approve devices other than BB.
2. But DoD prefers BB.
3. DoD already placed a huge order for Z10.
4. DoD will place another huge order for Q10 when it is finished with the approval process.

What else do ya wanna to know?

[leafs123]

I still see a sea of green and after reading several articles and knowing what I now have verified on my end, I see many of you guys becoming more than millionairs in the near future. Just don't forget us little people when you're sitting on your newly purchased secluded islands.

A couple friends of mine were in Costa Rica on vacation and they took a tour to Nicaragua (neighbouring country). Apparently you can buy islands in Nicaragua for 50-60K. At the $100 party, I'd be happy to host you guys there once when I buy one. lol

[cjcampbell]

Try some mind reading tricks, this is what I see.
1. DoD will approve devices other than BB.
2. But DoD prefers BB.
3. DoD already placed a huge order for Z10.
4. DoD will place another huge order for Q10 when it is finished with the approval process.

What else do ya wanna to know?

Very true.

[sparkaction]

If the Soc Gen figures prove to be anywhere near accurate then this could be a huge blowout quarter for them.

Current consensus estimates for Q1 are: GAAP EPS of $0.08 and Adjusted of $0.06 on sales of $3.37B.

If I update my own model using Soc Gen's BB10 figures and use my estimate of 3.5M BB7 sales (down 30% serially from Q4), along with service/BES10/QNX/other revenue of $900M, and a 60% increase in ad spend, I come out with some pretty crazy figures:

BlaiseP's Proprietary Estimates
EPS: $0.82
Adj EPS: $0.79
Sales: $4.1B
Earnings from ops: $630M or $1.20 /share

Will have to wait until Jun 28 for confirmation but if analysts believed that these sales were sustainable and not channel stuffing then price targets could easily be doubled/tripled in many cases.

Does anyone know if BBRY needs to announce such a significant difference in actuals and projected EPS? Assuming say a earnings surprise of $1.00 per share?

[Bugmapper]

Does anyone know if BBRY needs to announce such a significant difference in actuals and projected EPS? Assuming say a earnings surprise of $1.00 per share?

I wondered that myself.. would anyone actually sue them for making too much money ?

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[Fortyniner]

Well, that in itself is some reward. I'm just glad I can hang out with you guys and share virtual beers now and then. haha. By the way, I'll take a virtual beer from each of you or a non-alcoholic beverage from those that don't drink beer as I celebrate my 49th B-day today!! Red Lobster tonight with the wife and a few glasses of good wine.

Happy B-Day Icjr, hopefully on your 50th BBRY will be more than double and you can help out your two boys with that down payment.

[La Emperor]

Not sure if anyone has brought this up yet but what happened to the ATL 12, can't find it anywhere anymore, kinda weird

Could not find it either. Powers at be had it pulled out , probably or maybe it was updated too early, who knows.

Interesting though that we got some upgrade from our European followers after the not so important find yesterday..wink wink..

Perhaps the order got mixed up, it should have been upgrade first then Institutional owner updates.

[take99]

Happy Birthday Lcjr! And thanks for handing out such nice a nice present to us all this morning, it is appreciated as is your contributions to this thread. Now if you would just please pm me the memo you received, I can keep a secret lol.....