The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
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- LOL...Sidney Crosby is from Cole Harbour. Not sure about the rest of the goings on though.
Nah, pretty sure BlackBerry is best kept where it is. We do have a BlackBerry operation here in Bedford and as far as I know, the Provincial economic development agency here contributed $10 million to their activities last fall.
M+8, any thoughts on how that lower Bollinger band is breaking to the south? My thoughts are, from a worst case scenario, if we continue to go without news we're going to mirror April but with a higher low.morganplus8 and CDM76 like this.05-28-13 10:07 AMLike 2 - .24% increase in marketshare in the last month.
Over 1 billion smartphone users in the world.
.24% of 1 billion is 2.4 million.
Upgrading existing customers wouldn't change the marketshare and Hein's said that they were seeing a 50% turnover rate, so that .24% is likely consumers migrating from an Android or iPhone. So the 2.4 million should be doubled to reflect both upgrading and migrating users.
Hence, ~5 million.
And since the month I'm looking at was before the Q10 was launched, the sales have to be Z10 or legacy phones.05-28-13 10:08 AMLike 0 -
- I think I might be getting a nice teflon coating on my stomach these days for paper losses lol.
Anywho more work gets done around here when were floating between $14.50 and $15.10 BB.TO
That June ER is going to feel like a drenching rain on drought ground. Bring it on.05-28-13 10:18 AMLike 7 - LOL...Sidney Crosby is from Cole Harbour. Not sure about the rest of the goings on though.
Nah, pretty sure BlackBerry is best kept where it is. We do have a BlackBerry operation here in Bedford and as far as I know, the Provincial economic development agency here contributed $10 million to their activities last fall.
M+8, any thoughts on how that lower Bollinger band is breaking to the south? My thoughts are, from a worst case scenario, if we continue to go without news we're going to mirror April but with a higher low.
Anyway, the BB's are dropping slightly right now, the circle on the left shows you the 22 second-day of the 22-day moving average used to calculate two standard deviations of the norm for the BB's.
The circle on the right is where we are today. The next few closes after the circle on the left are higher which will cause the lower band to drop faster than the $ .02/shr it is doing today. There is a chance, that while we are in the dry period of no good news (5 - 10 days), or negative news, that the stock could work its way below $ 14.00/shr. The support comes from the uptrend line, RSI and its latest action which is to trade on ever weakening volume. There just is no interest in this trade until the Q10 launch and the Q1 ER. This week is probably the only time that the stock has left to weaken on no news. Let's see how it does today on very low volume.05-28-13 10:19 AMLike 11 - 05-28-13 10:19 AMLike 4
- Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorIf you look at the dataset closely enough, of course you're going to see larger flucuations in the dataset. You're basically looking at it under a magnifying glass.
I looked at a month to month trend. Which I assumed would average the values for the month, not just pick one arbitrary number.
As someone else mentioned in earlier postings, the usage data reflects data obtained from website hit counters, not actual sales numbers. A lot of phones could go unreported by these numbers simply by not being used.
But even if you assumed a +-0.05 margin of error, the number of sales still goes to somewhere between 3-6 million in the last month.
So, in Canada, if you compare the year (Jan-May) and May alone ... (and then I'll let you play around with maths !)
P.S: it's ALL mobile (I believe incl. tablets).05-28-13 10:23 AMLike 8 - Oh yeah, I forgot Sidney Crosby, how can a small town like that produce so many great athletes?
Anyway, the BB's are dropping slightly right now, the circle on the left shows you the 22 second-day of the 22-day moving average used to calculate two standard deviations of the norm for the BB's.
The circle on the right is where we are today. The next few closes after the circle on the left are higher which will cause the lower band to drop faster than the $ .02/shr it is doing today. There is a chance, that while we are in the dry period of no good news (5 - 10 days), or negative news, that the stock could work its way below $ 14.00/shr. The support comes from the uptrend line, RSI and its latest action which is to trade on ever weakening volume. There just is no interest in this trade until the Q10 launch and the Q1 ER. This week is probably the only time that the stock has left to weaken on no news. Let's see how it does today on very low volume.05-28-13 10:24 AMLike 5 - If you look at the dataset closely enough, of course you're going to see larger flucuations in the dataset. You're basically looking at it under a magnifying glass.
I looked at a month to month trend. Which I assumed would average the values for the month, not just pick one arbitrary number.
As someone else mentioned in earlier postings, the usage data reflects data obtained from website hit counters, not actual sales numbers. A lot of phones could go unreported by these numbers simply by not being used.
But even if you assumed a +-0.05 margin of error, the number of sales still goes to somewhere between 3-6 million in the last month.
I knew a while ago when I bought my 500 shares that it might be dead money (recall my posts that I was holding out until it hit 18 as I thought it would just meander here) and I am only down a few bucks, but it is so puzzling to me how BBRY can be so deaf to the market, esp given the gigantic short interest....
Let's see what the ER brings, but BBRY sure is a frustrating stock to own these days. Vent (sort of) off.05-28-13 10:34 AMLike 2 - Thanks for you work on this. Bottom line is you/we/the street shouldn't be constrained to having to try to extrapolate sales figures from these type of numbers, half a$$ed channel checks and TH's vague statements. Instead of TH's pronouncements that sales are so great and exceeded expectations AFAIK, its May 28th and we don't have a single hard number for Z10, Q10 or even a US launch date for the Q10. Honestly, inexcusable for a company like BBRY, esp after BB Live.
I knew a while ago when I bought my 500 shares that it might be dead money (recall my posts that I was holding out until it hit 18 as I thought it would just meander here) and I am only down a few bucks, but it is so puzzling to me how BBRY can be so deaf to the market, esp given the gigantic short interest....
Let's see what the ER brings, but BBRY sure is a frustrating stock to own these days. Vent (sort of) off.
I bought my stock wanting to hold onto it for 5 years.
The short squeeze will be a beautiful thing to behold, but they're still just getting started.
Smartphone sales are just the tip of the M2M iceberg.05-28-13 10:37 AMLike 5 - I hope you are right, I just worry they will allow perception to become reality. 5 years is a great time frame for an investment, but is like dog years (5 x 7=35) in tech company years.La Emperor and Scott Lefebvre like this.05-28-13 10:40 AMLike 2
- Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorWas looking for figures in Canada and found this crap ... (link on demand, won't promote).
Now I understand how some can be lead in confusion ... (just look at the catalys N/As / 100% total on the right table).05-28-13 10:42 AMLike 0 - ThunderbuckRetired ModeratorOh yeah, I forgot Sidney Crosby, how can a small town like that produce so many great athletes?
Anyway, the BB's are dropping slightly right now, the circle on the left shows you the 22 second-day of the 22-day moving average used to calculate two standard deviations of the norm for the BB's.
The circle on the right is where we are today. The next few closes after the circle on the left are higher which will cause the lower band to drop faster than the $ .02/shr it is doing today. There is a chance, that while we are in the dry period of no good news (5 - 10 days), or negative news, that the stock could work its way below $ 14.00/shr. The support comes from the uptrend line, RSI and its latest action which is to trade on ever weakening volume. There just is no interest in this trade until the Q10 launch and the Q1 ER. This week is probably the only time that the stock has left to weaken on no news. Let's see how it does today on very low volume.05-28-13 10:43 AMLike 4 -
Think about how much this stock could be worth in those 35 dog years.
QNX is an amazingly future-proofed OS and BBRY truly understands security. I really think it will replace pretty much everything else out there over time.05-28-13 10:44 AMLike 4 - I believe there's some factual indicators. Screen size (hardware detection) may be a good one, especially since Z10 has a weird (1280X768) one.
So, in Canada, if you compare the year (Jan-May) and May alone ... (and then I'll let you play around with maths !)
P.S: it's ALL mobile (I believe incl. tablets).
Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.05-28-13 10:44 AMLike 0 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorGet out of my head, Morlock_man ! (I don't want you to read my dirty secrets !!!)05-28-13 10:44 AMLike 4
- Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorIt's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.
Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.05-28-13 10:48 AMLike 0 - 05-28-13 10:48 AMLike 3
- Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorMe linking BGR ? Yup, I do read and link few ... but this one is fair and +
BlackBerry Sales Analysis: Store Checks Likely Bogus | BGR05-28-13 10:53 AMLike 3 - A thought popped into my head this morning as I was catching on BB news and this thread. Is a quarter a true indication of that the new platform is gaining traction? I'm looking at it simply from a regular consumer and CIO perspective, without rose coloured glassed.
For a consumer's perspective, most of us have 2-3 year commitments on devices and my argument is that not all people will suddenly be switching to BB10 devices because they are out. They have upgrade cycles which they are waiting for. My brother for example, wants to get the Q10 but for him as a student, it is a little expensive to upgrade mid-contract. Thus, he either has to hold out until he burns some time off his contract, or he can pick up a cheap Q5 outright from overseas.
From a CIO perspective, many large enterprises such as banks have also upgrade cycles which take large budgets to undertake and implement. My last employer, one of the 5 big Canadian banks, was not upgrading to BB10 until the fall because they upgraded to the 9900 not too long ago.
This doesn't not mean that BBRY not selling many devices can be excused, I'm just trying to temper the expectations for this quarter.
Thoughts?05-28-13 10:54 AMLike 3 - It's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.
Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.
Second, I don't see why you think the Canadian data is flawed. The spike in May that you're looking at falls in line with the launch of the Q10, which has been reported to be a better seller than the Z10. And since the other two platforms decreased over that period, I think the 50% migration rate is looking pretty truthful.bungaboy likes this.05-28-13 10:54 AMLike 1 - I believe there's some factual indicators. Screen size (hardware detection) may be a good one, especially since Z10 has a weird (1280X768) one.
So, in Canada, if you compare the year (Jan-May) and May alone ... (and then I'll let you play around with maths !)
P.S: it's ALL mobile (I believe incl. tablets).
Following on SF's look at screen resolution....
I had a look at the recent increase of RIM in Canada and compared it to screen resolution over the same time period. As you can see, it does not appear that the Z10 is the cause of the increase, but another device (presumably the Q10 but it is not square???) but I do not understand the resolutions... could Blackberry be working on a different device, or are these tablets, or activated cars??? Hmmm... any devs out there clear this up?
bungaboy likes this.05-28-13 10:56 AMLike 1 - Following on SF's look at screen resolution....
I had a look at the recent increase of RIM in Canada and compared it to screen resolution over the same time period. As you can see, it does not appear that the Z10 is the cause of the increase, but another device (presumably the Q10 but it is not square???) but I do not understand the resolutions... could Blackberry be working on a different device, or are these tablets, or activated cars??? Hmmm... any devs out there clear this up?Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.05-28-13 10:59 AMLike 2 - It's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.
Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.05-28-13 11:00 AMLike 0
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