[Dapper37]

yea, maybe, not. thanks for confirming your true colours.

???????

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

Maybe so but just as narrow minded, and credible. Look at profit from 3bn to 1bn, I would love to see BBRY at 3bn profit, any one else

Probably short BBRY...

[greggebhardt]

Bernanke did just a predicted, nothing! He will continue as will the market.

We know now not to take BB Trader's advise. All GROWL and no BITE!

[Bugmapper]

Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY): No game changer, service revenues to come under attack

BBRY EPS estimates ate Berenberg are lowered from -0.35 to -0.66 in 2013 while rising from -0.61 to -0.59 in 2014.

Consensus EPS for Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) in 2013 is 0.37 and a paltry 0.02 in 2014.

Justifying their Sell call on Research in Motion Ltd Berenberg say their bearish case is based on, "Increase in competitive intensity in US market + New BB10 platform not a game-changer + Services revenues to come under attack."

Share price target on BBRY is 5.

Not linking to this one...

[BB_Trader]

TD is back up, I bet they were hacked. Time to short BB and oil. Have a nice day. Such bs to see the DOW up 109 points.

[Charles Martin1]

Greg, the DOW is soaring, do you then think BBRY is going to go in the opposite direction?

[cjcampbell]

Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY): No game changer, service revenues to come under attack

BBRY EPS estimates ate Berenberg are lowered from -0.35 to -0.66 in 2013 while rising from -0.61 to -0.59 in 2014.

Consensus EPS for Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) in 2013 is 0.37 and a paltry 0.02 in 2014.

Justifying their Sell call on Research in Motion Ltd Berenberg say their bearish case is based on, "Increase in competitive intensity in US market + New BB10 platform not a game-changer + Services revenues to come under attack."

Share price target on BBRY is 5.

Not linking to this one...

Call me crazy, but by putting such an asinine price point, does that not call into question motives and legitimacy? I mean seriously.... $5?!?!?!

[Charles Martin1]

Bernanke did just a predicted, nothing! He will continue as will the market.

We know now not to take BB Trader's advise. All GROWL and no BITE!

QE is going nowhere but up until Japan stops QE...and that is currently forecasted to continue for two years, at least.

The US has to, has to, prevent its currency from increasing too much and, for now, this is the only way to do that.

Further records for equities.

[Tinomane]

I wonder if IBM, Lenovo, or MSFT or doing the same thing Porsche did back in the day....


How Porsche hacked the financial system and made a killing

January 7, 2009 at 7:32 pm

Porsche Type 64, image from Lothar Spurzem under CC-BY-SA.

Adolf Merckle, one of the world’s richest men, committed suicide yesterday by throwing himself under a train, Bloomberg reports. Financial difficulties, and particularly great losses he suffered on Volkswagen stock, are being cited as the key reason he ended his life:

[Merckle's company] VEM was caught in a so-called short squeeze after betting Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen’s stock would fall. Merckle lost at least 500 million euros on the bets on VW stock, people familiar said on Nov. 18. VEM lost “low three-digit million euros” on VW stock, the company said in November.

A “short squeeze” sounds inconspicuous enough; you wouldn’t tell it by Bloomberg’s language, but Merckle’s Volkswagen bet lost out to one of the most masterful hacks of the financial system in history.

For those of us who don’t live and breathe finance, this is that story.

● ● ●

In 1931, Austro-Hungarian engineer Ferdinand Porsche started a German company in his own name. It offered car design consulting services, and was not a car manufacturer itself until it produced the Type 64 in 1939. But things got interesting for Porsche long before then.

In 1933, he was approached by none other than Adolf Hitler, who commissioned a car designed for the German masses. Porsche accepted, and the result was the iconic Beetle, manufactured under the Volkswagen (lit. “people’s car”) brand. Today, Porsche’s company is one of the world’s premier luxury car brands, while Volkswagen (VW) is itself the world’s third-largest auto maker after General Motors and Toyota.

Three years ago, Volkswagen found itself fearing a foreign takeover. Porsche, the company, decided to step in and start buying VW stock ostensibly to protect the landmark brand, widely fueling market expectations that it would eventually buy Volkswagen outright. Of course, this isn’t quite what came to pass.

For three years, Porsche kept accumulating VW stock without telling anyone how much it owned. Every time it purchased more, the amount of free-floating VW stock would decrease, driving the stock price up slightly; your basic supply and demand at work. Eventually the share price became high enough that, to outside observers, it wouldn’t have made any sense for Porsche to buy Volkswagen. It would simply have cost too much.

To explain what happened next, I’m going to first tell you about a financial maneuver called shorting.

● ● ●

At any given point, only a certain amount of a publicly traded company’s stock is floating freely in the market. The rest is held in various portfolios, funds, and investment vehicles. Now, everyone’s familiar with the basic idea behind the stock market: you buy stock when it costs little, and you sell it when it costs a lot, profiting on the difference.

But that assumes a company’s value is going to increase. What if, instead of betting a company will go up, you want to make money betting the company will go down? You can — by selling stock you don’t own.

Say you borrow a certain amount of stock from someone who already owns it. You pay a fixed fee for borrowing the stock, and you sign a contract saying you will return exactly the same amount of stock you took after some amount of time. So, you might borrow a thousand shares of Apple stock from me (I don’t actually own any, but play along), pay me $100 for the privilege, and sign an obligation to return my stock in 3 months. At the time, Apple stock is worth $10 per share.

After you borrow the stock, you immediately sell it. At $10 a share, you get $10,000. Two and a half months later, another rumor about Steve Jobs’ health sends AAPL crashing to only $6 per share for a few hours, so you buy a thousand shares, costing you $6,000. You give me back those shares. Because you successfully bet the company would go down in value, you earned $4,000 minus the borrowing fee. This is called short-selling or shorting the stock, and the downside is obvious: if your bet was wrong, you would have lost money buying back the shares that you have to return to your lender.

● ● ●

Now things get kinky.

When Volkswagen’s share price exceeded the point where it made sense for Porsche to buy the company, a number of hedge funds realized that Volkswagen shares have nowhere to go but down. With Porsche out of the picture, there was simply no reason for VW to keep going up, and the funds were willing to bet on it. So they shorted huge amounts of VW stock, borrowing it from existing owners and selling it into circulation, waiting for the price drop they considered inevitable.

Porsche anticipated exactly this situation and promptly bought up much of these borrowed VW shares that the funds were selling. Do you see where this is going? Analysts did. According to The Economist, Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley warned clients not to play “billionaire’s poker” against Porsche. Porsche denied any foul play, saying it wasn’t doing anything unusual.

But then, last October 26th, they stepped forward and bared their portfolio: through a combination of stock and options, they owned 75% of Volkswagen, which is almost all the company’s circulating stock. (The remainder is tied up in funds that cannot easily release it.)

To put it mildly, the numbers scared the living hell out of the hedge funds: if they didn’t immediately buy back the Volkswagen stock they were shorting, there might not be any left to buy later, and it isn’t their stock — they have to return it to someone. If their only option is thus to buy the VW stock from Porsche, then the miracle of supply and demand will hit again, and Porsche can ask for whatever price it wants per VW share — twenty times their value, a hundred times their value — because there’s no other place to buy. They’re the only game in town.

And that, my friends, is called a short squeeze.

● ● ●

Porsche’s ownership disclosure sent the hedge funds on such a flurry of purchases for any Volkswagen stock still in circulation that the VW share price jumped from below €200 to over €1000 at one point on October 28th, making Volkswagen for a brief time the world’s most valuable company by market cap.

On paper, Porsche made between €30-40 billion in the affair. Once all is said and done, the actual profit is closer to some €6-12 billion. To put those numbers in perspective, Porsche’s revenue for the whole year of 2006 was a bit over €7 billion.

Porsche’s move took three years of careful maneuvering. It was darkly brilliant, a wealth transfer ingeniously conceived like few we’ve ever seen. Betting the right way, Porsche roiled the financial markets and took the hedge funds for a fortune.

Betting the wrong way, Adolf Merckle took his life.

[Bbnivende]

Latest downgrade.


Typical... there is a whole world of opportunity for Blackberry outside of the USA. That is where the market is growing. I just wish that BB could make some inroads in China . Specific models that enhance the use of Chinese language on physical KB's ? A deal with Lenovo ? Something !

[greggebhardt]

Greg, the DOW is soaring, do you then think BBRY is going to go in the opposite direction?

In the past this has been so.

I think BBRY will continue to slide until it looks like a bargain.

[tiziano27]

Call me crazy, but by putting such an asinine price point, does that not call into question motives and legitimacy? I mean seriously.... $5?!?!?!

The stock price was $70 two years ago.

[chrysaurora]

If VW can go from Euro 200 to Euro 1000 due to short-squeeze; then BBRY can easily triple it's value too.
If a couple of folks like Carl Ichann were to buy 10% each; there is definitely going to be a short squeeze.
Somebody like Carl Ichann could make a LOT of money (almost overnight) by just buying 10% now and triggering a short squeeze!
what the heck, if Jim B (cofounder who sold his stock in December) buys his stakes again (5%) and Carl buys 10%, we all would be rich overnight.

[Dapper37]

Call me crazy, but by putting such an asinine price point, does that not call into question motives and legitimacy? I mean seriously.... $5?!?!?!

It sure does IMO, did they at least give us a time line to go by. So we can judge their efforts for future reference. Some how I doubt it.

Posted via CB10

[q649]

For anyone still having problems with TD waterhouse: I can login now, so you should be able to as well.

[BB_Trader]

Beautiful, that worked out nicely, shorting BB and long on HOD

[Scott Lefebvre]

Call me crazy, but by putting such an asinine price point, does that not call into question motives and legitimacy? I mean seriously.... $5?!?!?!

Yep and eps of-0.66 wtf is wrong with these lying scumbags, how can anyone belive this crap?

[cjcampbell]

The stock price was $70 two years ago.

And it was $140 5 years ago... I'm curious as to your point. Even if the company was to go belly up, it's worth far more than $5/share. That target doesn't even account for their current cash holdings let alone real estate and patent portfolio.

[q649]

Dear Canadian Dollar,

Please stop dropping, you're screwing up my BBRY stock purchase plans.

[Charles Martin1]

If we end lower again today, my advice is to follow the RSI (10) or the MACD (12,26,9) to guide your buy and sell decisions. It seems to be following these cues very closely over the past three months.

I'm a firm believer that investors view of BBRY has changed since BB10's release, which has meant a much flatter upward trend until something causes it to markedly improve. My hope is the the June ER will begin to cause the stock price to turn upward much more sharply until the September ER, which may send it on an aggressive climb.

From this week, my analysis is based on the stock price movement from February 21st forward, where I believe that the outlook for BBRY shifted from more hype to more reliance on the company's performance.

Just my two cents.

[Charles Martin1]

Dear Canadian Dollar,

Please stop dropping, you're screwing up my BBRY stock purchase plans.

It's likely to fall a ways yet, if the US doesn't do anything to counter the free fall of the Yen.

[tygros]

Beautiful, that worked out nicely, shorting BB and long on HOD

What price point on that short? You have 10min to answer or else it didn't happen

[tygros]

Yep and eps of-0.66 wtf is wrong with these lying scumbags, how can anyone belive this crap?

Anyone else catch that 2013 ENDED last Q for BBRY??? We're starting 2014 with the next earnings announcement.

[mrfreetruth]

anyone want to guess the short interest numbers for friday? I say between 172-175 million shares short.

[tiziano27]

And it was $140 5 years ago... I'm curious as to your point. Even if the company was to go belly up, it's worth far more than $5/share. That target doesn't even account for their current cash holdings let alone real estate and patent portfolio.

In a negative scenario they can burn that cash fast. The stock price represent the future cash flow, not the current assets.