[Charles Martin1]

I have never seen a WP in the wild.

I've seen one in the garbage...lol

[Charles Martin1]

Anyone else here think that the Windows Phone surpassing BB for #3 in the world is a bit shady? I can't understand how that is possible...

I believe it is an act of desperation by Microsoft and/or Nokia to gloat about something that really is not true but appears to be.

[InWithTheNew]

Anyone else here think that the Windows Phone surpassing BB for #3 in the world is a bit shady? I can't understand how that is possible...

It's being based on the last earnings number that Blackberry put out vs. what Window8 phones put it. Ofcourse BB10 phones only had 3 weeks of selling at last check. Quite possible that we can and will get back that spot with the amount of BB10 and BB7 phones shipped in this quarter.

[BBNation]

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

It's being based on the last earnings number that Blackberry put out vs. what Window8 phones put it. Ofcourse BB10 phones only had 3 weeks of selling at last check. Quite possible that we can and will get back that spot with the amount of BB10 and BB7 phones shipped in this quarter.

Actually it is based on this year's fiscal quarter and they assumed March numbers bases on their own checks via sources. Unfortunately we will never know where they get their info nor if it's true. The fact that BlackBerry's fiscal quarters don't match up with yearly quarters means it can never be proven nor disproven.

Posted via CB10

[YangFui]

I know a lot of people were sorely disappointed (disgusted, perhaps) with last week's stock price movement. Yet as far as I am concerned, it moved within the well-established pennant in a very probabilistic manner. Here is the current chart, with my annotations:



Last week, I had provided pink short trendlines that made a smaller, short-term pennant. The stock price broke through the lower pink trendline I had drawn, effectively violating the small pennant, and continued towards the longer trendline (B, above). It remains in the boundaries of the long-term pennant, as boring as that may be.

Charting isn't perfect, and some readers might think it's all a bit hokey especially because some TA analysts who follow BBRY predicted a "pop" to the upside, blowing through the major descending trendline (A, above) and making new highs--possibly initiating a short squeeze. Sure, that could have happened, but we're dealing with likelihoods here. Absent some actual income data from BBRY, BB Live just wasn't enough fuel to propel our rocket. So what's likely to happen this week?

As far I am concerned, I think the stock price is moving sinusoidally within a long-term pennant and might not head toward the upper descending trendline (A) until the end of May or beginning of June. It is trending down at the moment and just might finish its cycle before turning back around. Sure, news events could cause a reversal sooner--but absent something truly spectacular, the price is moving nicely in a very predictable way. From an academic perspective, it's somewhat consoling to see that the stock price is honoring the pattern. If it didn't do this then perhaps there would be no such thing as technical analysis.

Nothing says that the stock price must move sinusoidally. In fact, it is doing so only in a very crude way--what is not crude is that the price has stayed within the pennant for a few months now... What was crude about the sine wave is that it hasn't exactly moved in the way my blue sine wave depicts. I overlaid that line just to show how the stock price is approximating a sine wave. There was a "fake" reversal at the end of week ending on 5/10 (highlighted in the right white rectangle) that made me think that perhaps the sine wave was interrupted and that the upper trendline would likely be broken. Instead, the stock price reversed and continued towards the ascending trendline (b). The fact the stock price didn't break through the descending trendline (A) to the upside is very reminiscent of a similar "fake out" shown in the left white rectangle. The sine wave appeared to be interrupted in early April only to bounce off the descending trendline and continue moving towards the lower ascending trendline. Every time the stock price bounces off the edges of our pennant, the more significant a close above the descending trendline or below the ascending trendline becomes. By "significant", I mean that a large price movement would be likely in the direction of the breakout.

If the sine wave continues, we can expect to see increasing lows and decreasing highs as the end of the month approaches and as the pennant narrows. The more time passes, the narrower we should see the BBRY trading range. At this time, however, any of the points at or around the white circles could be touched on. For instance, we're heading towards the leftmost white circle (see E above). That price point is about $13.60-13.80, depending on how conservative you are in drawing the ascending trendline. I *really* don't see BBRY breaking below this ascending trendline, B. Sure, it could happen, but given the length of the trendline, the news, short-interest, and the established sinusoidal pattern--I just don't see it happening. It would be a very low-probability event.

As the sine wave turns and heads back towards the upper descending trendline, we start approaching my oft-mentioned $16.50 price point. But look what's happening: Because the upper line is descending, the $16.50 price point is actually getting lower as time passes. In other words, it looks to me that the next price-to-beat at market close is going to be one of the upper white circles--$16.40 if it happens in the first days of June and perhaps $16.20 if it happens in the second week in June. Of course, if the stock price reverses and heads straight through the upper trendline--betraying the sinusoidal pattern--then all bets are off and the stock could take a run. But it seems to me that we can expect a few more undulations as the next couple of trading weeks pass. It might be a bit boring, but then again it's going to just take time for this story to unfold and for those sideline skeptics to put some money into BBRY. Aside from company news, though, increased ratings from analysts could set the stock price on a new course. Our goal is to break to the upside of the pennant. Once that happens, you can kiss the boredom goodbye.

[greggebhardt]

Charts are nice but once the market opens, the chart "obeys" the market.

[greggebhardt]

Why all the negativity about the Windows phone. They are just new hardware and a new OS. Much like Blackberry. No matter if WP or Blackberry sells better does not matter. Blackberry does not have to be on top to win.

[The Selected Fruit]

I keep several charts open on my screens and there is one which I have reproduced below that is becoming interesting.

The BBRY stock price needs fresh money and the main catalyst for this is stronger fundamentals. Once this happens, new players will come in.

I have a chart that has two simple DMAs, the 200 and 400, so it is very long term indicator! From what I can see, the 200 (blue line) looks to be on course to cross over the 400 (thick red line) to the upside, within 2 months from now.

This long term MA indicator is used by the long term hedge funds that trend trade. Once they see this set up, they will evaluate the security (BBRY in this case!) looking at all aspects of the company before making a decision whether to take a position in the stock. Should the June ER be positive, I think we are going to see some big boys come into the BBRY stock.

I have also drawn a horizontal line around the $35 level. This is an absolutely huge level and one that I expect many traders/investors who are long on the stock, will be targeting should BBRY continue to show good evidence of progress in the next 2-3 quarters.

[Superfly_FR]

I have never seen a WP in the wild.

Just had my hands on a WP8 NOK yesterday. That's a pretty good device. Can definitely compare to top devices.
But it does not fit my taste ... besides the screen and photos I found really brilliant.

[greggebhardt]

Just had my hands on a WP8 NOK yesterday. That's a pretty good device. Can definitely compare to top devices.
But it does not fit my taste ... besides the screen and photos I found really brilliant.

I gave the Nokia 920 a shot on a spare phone line for a few days, even bought the MS Surface tablet. BUT, like you, it just was not for me. The screen on the 920 was awesome.

Just not liking to Win8 theme.

We are GREEN this morning, up .17.

[Superfly_FR]

I gave the Nokia 920 a shot on a spare phone line for a few days, even bought the MS Surface tablet. BUT, like you, it just was not for me. The screen on the 920 was awesome.

Just not liking to Win8 theme.

We are GREEN this morning, up .17.

Lol, I'm 4 minutes late

[Shanerredflag]

Morning...and the first SA of the day is an interesting take on Canadian market share:

BlackBerry: Canadian Market Share Up 200% Post Launch

Disclosure: I am long BBRY. (More...)

At the bottom of a Barron's article was some interesting information about BlackBerry's (BBRY) market share in Canada. Raymond James analyst Tavis McCourt mentioned that BlackBerry's Canadian market share went up from 6% in Q4 2012 (Calendar Year) to 13.5% in Q1 2013. That is very strong growth for BlackBerry in Canada, but still doesn't tell the entire picture about the Z10's success in Canada. The Z10 was only available for 61% of the quarter, so BlackBerry's market share during this time would be higher than 13.5%. We are going to calculate this market share below.

Z10 Market Share In Canada

The Z10 was launched in Canada on February 5. This means that there were 35 days in Q1 before the launch, and 55 days from the launch day until the end of the calendar quarter. If we assume that BlackBerry's market share declined from 6% to 5% pre-launch as people waited for the new phones, then BlackBerry's post-launch market share from February 5 to March 31 would be 18.9%. This averages out to 13.5% over the quarter if you assume that each day is equally weighted. The 18.9% market share is a 215% increase over BlackBerry's market share in Q4 2012.

Period

Pre-BB10 Launch

Post-BB10 Launch

Full Quarter

# of Days

35

55

90

% of Period

38.9%

61.1%

100%

BlackBerry Market Share

5.0%

18.9%

13.5%

If we assume that the sales of BB7 phones in Canada declined further due to the Z10 being available, it seems reasonable to peg Z10 market share at 15% during the post launch period, with BB7 phones representing the other 3.9%.

BlackBerry 10 Share Trends

There have been suggestions that BlackBerry 10 sales have benefited from a lot of pent-up demand at launch, and that demand has fallen greatly since launch. While we don't have sales data by month, we can estimate sales by looking at Google Trends for Canada for the search terms Z10 and Q10 (for May). I've also made some slight adjustments for Q10 numbers to remove people searching for coenzyme Q10.

The Google Trends information tells us that the search term Z10 averaged 51.92 points for February, 34.13 for March, and 27.91 for April. Doing some calculations based on a February 5 to March 31 Z10 market share of 15% allows us to split this out as 18.6% market share in February (from the 5th onward), and a 12.2% share in March. In April, estimated Z10 market share was 10%, and during the 1st half of May, combined search volumes for Q10 and Z10 would indicate an estimated market share of 20.2%. Search volumes for the Z10 had stabilized from around the second week of April onwards, indicating a floor of around 9-10% prior to any cannibalization from the Q10.

Period

February (5th onward)

March

April

May (1st Half)

Google Trend Points Per Day

51.92

34.13

27.91

56.35

Estimated Market Share (BB10)

18.6%

12.2%

10.0%

20.2%

It is likely that there are many people searching for both Q10 and Z10 and then deciding to buy only one phone, but it seems reasonable to peg combined BB10 sales at least at 15% market share over a longer period. Another factor to consider is that the Q10 likely appeals more to business users, and there may be a higher ratio of unit sales to search volume for the Q10 due to bulk business purchases.

What Does A 15% Market Share For BB10 Mean?

Smartphone sales in Canada are approximately 1 million per month, with increased sales during the holiday season pushing total sales to around 14 million per year. A 15% market share would therefore translate into 150,000 units per month (450,000 per quarter) at this time of year, or 2.1 million per year if that share holds up through the holiday season.

This number matches up pretty well with a survey done in February by Forum Research, which concluded that BlackBerry could sell as many as 2.6 million BB10 devices per year in Canada.

Taking the 15% and combining it with a legacy BB7 market share of 3% would make BlackBerry's overall market share in Canada 18%. This is a 200% increase over BlackBerry's market share in Q4 2012.

An 18% market share also results in 2.52 million BlackBerry units being sold per year. This is a 21% increase over 2011, when they shipped 2.08 million units to Canada.

Conclusion

Evidence shows that BlackBerry has made a strong comeback in Canada, increasing sales to levels higher than they were in 2011. Although Canada is only a medium-sized market, this level of sales will bring revenues from Canada to above $1 billion per year. Combined with a similarly high market share in places such as the Middle East, BlackBerry has established a very solid base with their high-end BB10 devices and are now poised to make waves with their Q5 device targeted at emerging markets and mid-range consumers.

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

What's all this news about some private firm building something for BBRY that will allow all 700k apps to be compatible with BB10? That can't be right, right?

Posted via CB10

[Komoto]

What's all this news about some private firm building something for BBRY that will allow all 700k apps to be compatible with BB10? That can't be right, right?

Posted via CB10

Saw something like that aswell.

I took it with a pinch of salt. Don't know how true it is. In my opinion they need to filter the crap in the process.

The other problem with this is that you will lose whatever momentum you had for deva to develop natively.

In two minds about it....

Posted via CB10

[take99]

Still not sounding positive for a netflix app

Interview: Netflix CEO on future of TV, 'Arrested Development,' BlackBerry | Business | Lethbridge Herald

CP: You've been quoted as saying that you're always trying out a new smartphone or tablet to keep up on new technology. Have you tried one of the new BlackBerry 10 devices yet?

Hastings: No. Like many people I was a BlackBerry addict from 1997 or 1998 through to the iPhone but I haven't tried it. We don't currently support streaming on the BlackBerry, it's a unique operating system you have to target, and unfortunately there's just not enough volume for entertainment (apps). It's a great device for getting work done but people don't interact with it as an entertainment device the same way they do with say an iPhone or Android phone.

[Dapper37]

Why all the negativity about the Windows phone. They are just new hardware and a new OS. Much like Blackberry. No matter if WP or Blackberry sells better does not matter. Blackberry does not have to be on top to win.

I don't think it's negativity towards Nokia as much as it is a reaction to the continued media bias!

Posted via CB10

[greggebhardt]

I don't think it's negativity towards Nokia as much as it is a reaction to the continued media bias!

Posted via CB10

While I do agree, Windows phones have had plenty of negative press, too. But then we are talking about Microsoft!

Blackberry will do fine. They do not NEED to beat WIndows, Android or Apple. The smartphone market is HUGE and there is plenty of room.

[Bugmapper]

Still not sounding positive for a netflix app

Interview: Netflix CEO on future of TV, 'Arrested Development,' BlackBerry | Business | Lethbridge Herald

CP: You've been quoted as saying that you're always trying out a new smartphone or tablet to keep up on new technology. Have you tried one of the new BlackBerry 10 devices yet?

Hastings: No. Like many people I was a BlackBerry addict from 1997 or 1998 through to the iPhone but I haven't tried it. We don't currently support streaming on the BlackBerry, it's a unique operating system you have to target, and unfortunately there's just not enough volume for entertainment (apps). It's a great device for getting work done but people don't interact with it as an entertainment device the same way they do with say an iPhone or Android phone.

Ok that's a really weird quote to me. Sounds like the guy has either never seen the new BB10 and doesn't know what it's capable of, or he is saying blackberry users don't want to watch entertainment on their bb10 and still want to carry an iphone too. Or both.

That quote says a lot.

[Charles Martin1]

Ok that's a really weird quote to me. Sounds like the guy has either never seen the new BB10 and doesn't know what it's capable of, or he is saying blackberry users don't want to watch entertainment on their bb10 and still want to carry an iphone too. Or both.

That quote says a lot.

Yeah. It sounds like somebody from BlackBerry should setup a meeting with this fellow.

[ibpluto]

Ya that quote seems to have a temporal time stamp that is past it's best before date. It's as thou he has no clue what BB10 can do.

Posted via CB10 from my awesome Z10

[bungaboy]

Why all the negativity about the Windows phone. They are just new hardware and a new OS. Much like Blackberry. No matter if WP or Blackberry sells better does not matter. Blackberry does not have to be on top to win.

"I have never seen a WP in the wild" is a statement of fact. Nothing negative. A statement of fact.

I would play with one if I saw one just to see what it is like. If it is anything like Windows 8 it wouldn't be a very long affair though.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Why all the negativity about the Windows phone. They are just new hardware and a new OS. Much like Blackberry. No matter if WP or Blackberry sells better does not matter. Blackberry does not have to be on top to win.

Did some shopping with my wife this weekend... went to three different Big Box stores (Sams Club, Walmart, Target) and looked at electronics. Each of these stores have a mobile department and is a reseller for the big four carriers. So while there I took a look at the HTC One and compared it to my Z10. Too be honest I like the feel of the HTC One a lot. They even had a S4 on display, all of them had a couple of WP devices (not sure which one)... none of them carried a BlackBerry - OS7 or OS10.

Very difficult to sell an item to consumers IF it isn't on display. Don't know how the decision is made on which devices to sell at these locations, but apparently BlackBerry didn't make it through the process.

[Bugmapper]

Yeah. It sounds like somebody from BlackBerry should setup a meeting with this fellow.

This is an opportunity for BlackBerry to start their own flat fee media streaming service.. BBMflix. Not gonna happen, but it's an opportunity nonetheless.

In fact, they might even be able to beat netflix at their own game in some markets. Canada being the most obvious one.

[greggebhardt]

I am not claiming you were dissing Win Phones but there is plenty of it going on here.

I have two friends who purchased a Nokia 920. They both liked so much they purchased Surface tablets, too. They constantly brag about how their OS is so much more advanced than anything out there!